 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Sussex Stakes Day (S2) (Bill Esdaile)
S2-1 3yo 0-105 Handicap
This is one of the hottest handicaps for 3YOs run all season. The roll of honour is littered with horses that go on to win Group races and this year’s field looks well up to standard.
SECRET STATE has the potential to be much better than a handicapper. His impressive maiden win came over 2,064m at Chester in May and he had little trouble following up in a 1,668m Nottingham novice race. As a son of disqualified 1000 Guineas winner JACQUELINE QUEST, there were always going to be worries about the 2,392m distance of the King George V Stakes. He brushed off those concerns with a classy display to beat subsequent G3 winner DEAUVILLE LEGEND in that Royal Ascot handicap and he should have a great chance of making it four successive wins.
SOULCOMBE is unbeaten in two races since switching to handicaps. He bolted up over 2,327m on soft ground at Haydock in June before following up on a much faster surface in the style of a well-handicapped horse at Ascot three weeks ago. The blinkers he has worn for his last two starts seem to be the key to him.
Mark Johnston has an excellent record in this race having won it four times in the last ten years. Now training with his son Charlie sharing the licence, LUMINOUS LIGHT looks the pick of their runners, as he will appreciate the step up to 2,403m for the first time. The 1,955m distance was too short for him when third in a Ripon handicap last week. He was also hampered against the rail when staying on in the closing stages having been outpaced when the pace quickened.
ZAIN NIGHTS is a strong stayer at this distance. He galloped on relentlessly down the Newbury straight to make all the running in a 2,400m Newbury handicap last time out. The cheek pieces he wore for the first time seemed to help and he has more improvement in him.
ADJUVANT appreciated the step up to 2,400m for the first time when successful at Newmarket’s July Meeting on July Course. He did well to come from off the pace when successful in that small-field handicap as Newmarket doesn’t generally suit horses who like to be held up. The likely stronger pace will be ideal for trainer Michael Bell’s runner.
SELECTIONS: 1. SECRET STATE, 13. SOULCOMBE, 12. LUMINOUS LIGHT, 7. ZAIN NIGHTS & 8. ADJUVANT
S2-2 Oak Tree Stakes
3YO fillies clash with the older generation in the G3 1,409m Oak Tree Stakes, which has been split 50-50 in terms of wins for those age categories over the last decade.
PRIMO BACIO has been tried at the highest level without being disgraced but is yet to add a Group race to her CV. You can put a line through her reappearance when last of six over 1,600m at Goodwood back in April, as the race wasn’t run to suit and she was caught wide with no cover throughout. Trainer Ed Walker reported that she wasn’t 100 percent right after that run too, and she was given six weeks to recover before running a good third in the G2 1,600m Duke Of Cambridge Stakes at Royal Ascot. The daughter of AWTAAD then found the G1 1,600m Falmouth Stakes a bit too hot, but she remains of strong interest stepping back down in trip and company.
The other four fillies of interest here are all 3YOs.
BENEFIT, ridden by Ryan Moore, has shown plenty of ability already and remains open to improvement. She appreciated the good-to-firm ground when winning the Listed 1,200m Cathedral Stakes at Salisbury, while she was third to a highly progressive sprinter in SENSE OF DUTY at Haydock, also over 1,200m, the time before. Last time out in the 1,200m G3 Summer Stakes at York, she was a bit too far back to make an impact in the closing stages, but she certainly ran on well at the finish and has to be respected.
OSCULA has been busy and consistent this summer, landing the 1,377m Listed Eternal Stakes at Carlisle and being placed in all of her four other starts. Trainer George Boughey clearly feels she’s ready to go again after her second in the 1,594m G3 Valiant Stakes at Ascot on Saturday and she will be in the shake-up if running up to her best.
Frankie Dettori’s mount, SAMAHRAM, is the most unexposed runner in the field with just three runs under her belt. She won a decent Listed contest over 1,600m at ParisLongchamp last month and has been kept fresh for this. Her two previous runs came over 2,000m and 2,100m, so it’s interesting to see her dropping back to 1,409m, while all three of her runs have come with soft in the going description. Not an obvious choice on the form book, but her connections and unexposed profile are hard to ignore.
Finally, HEREDIA has four wins and a third from five career starts and has to be on the shortlist. She’s unbeaten in two starts over this 1,400m trip and acts well on quick ground, but will have to take another step forward to win at this level.
SELECTIONS: 5. PRIMO BACIO, 10. BENEFIT, 15. OSCULA, 16. SAMAHRAM & 12. HEREDIA
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-2:
Banker – 5. PRIMO BACIO
Selections –10. BENEFIT, 15. OSCULA, 16. SAMAHRAM & 12. HEREDIA
S2-3:
Banker – 4. ROCKET RODNEY
Selections – 7. WALBANK, 5. STUDIO CITY, 2. EDDIE’S BOY & 3. LOOKING FOR LYNDA
S2-3 Molecomb Stakes
The G3 Molecomb Stakes over Goodwood’s straight 1,000m is a race that tends to reward those at the head of the market with two of the past three favourites winning.
Likely to go off market leader is ROCKET RODNEY for trainer George Scott, and it’s not difficult to see why the Listed 1,009m Dragon Stakes winner will be popular. The son of DANDY MAN is bred to excel over this distance with his dam being by ROYAL APPLAUSE, who had an unblemished 2YO campaign over and has produced many a top-class sprinter. Last seen when winning the aforementioned Dragon Stakes, the gelding was previously beaten by LITTLE BIG BEAR in the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes over 1,000m at Royal Ascot which looks a very smart piece of form as the winner has since followed up in the G3 Anglesey Stakes.
Another that finished second on the podium at Royal Ascot was WALBANK when contesting the G2 Norfolk Stakes over 1,000m. Losing out to THE RIDDLER that day, the race was full of controversy as the winner veered sharply across the track into the path of the selection. The David Loughnane-trained colt could make amends for that shock defeat here.
Standing in his way, though, could be STUDIO CITY for trainer and owner Michael O’Callaghan. He arrives here on the back of shedding his maiden tag at Navan over 1,000m earlier this month, and the third that day BETTERDAYSRCOMING has since boosted the form by finishing a much closer third in a hotter looking contest at Down Royal over 1,400m.
Also on the shortlist is the winner of the 1,031m Weatherbys Super Sprint at Newbury, EDDIE’S BOY. Archie Watson’s grey was a decisive winner that day and will have been delighted to get his head in front having finished behind ROCKET RODNEY twice before. It may be that the son of HAVANA GREY doesn’t have the class to overturn that form, but if turning up in a similar vein of form as he did at Newbury, he could certainly make his presence known.
Rounding out the selections is LOOKING FOR LYNDA, who also competed in the aforementioned Weatherbys Super Sprint just less than two weeks ago. Although finishing fourth that day, he was still ahead of a few winners and the colt who is trained by the in-form Karl Burke can have a say.
SELECTIONS: 4. ROCKET RODNEY, 7. WALBANK, 5. STUDIO CITY, 2. EDDIE’S BOY & 3. LOOKING FOR LYNDA
S2-4 Sussex Stakes
Unbeaten BAAEED should stretch his winning streak to nine victories in the Sussex Stakes over 1,609m. This G1 contest is the highlight of Goodwood’s summer festival and has been won by some of the truly great horses, including FRANKEL, down the years.
BAAEED has rapidly developed into one of the world’s best. He ended last season by landing the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes over 1,600m at Ascot in October and he has added another two top-level prizes to his haul this term. He had CHINDIT and ALCOHOL FREE behind when easily winning the G1 Lockinge Stakes over 1,600m at Newbury and was equally impressive when landing the G1 Queen Anne Stakes over 1,600m at Royal Ascot when ORDER OF AUSTRALIA and CHINDIT were among those left trailing. There is nothing to touch him on form and he has already shown he handles this tricky track as he won the G3 Thoroughbred Stakes over 1,600m by more than six and a half lengths at Goodwood 12 months ago.
ALCOHOL FREE won this race last year when the ground was much softer. She showed she handles faster conditions when winning the G1 July Cup at Newmarket (July Course) a couple of weeks ago. To have enough pace to be able to drop to 1,200m against top-class sprinters was most impressive and she clearly stays this distance. If she settles well enough in the early stages, she could give BAAEED something to think about.
Godolphin trainer Charlie Appleby’s 2000 Guineas winner COROEBUS misses this race with a setback. He instead runs MODERN GAMES who looked very good when landing the G1 Poule d’Essai des Poulains over 1,600m at ParisLongchamp in May and has since put in two solid efforts in France. His races this season have all come on softer ground, but his best form last year was on a faster surface.
CHINDIT has not been good enough to trouble BAAEED this season, but he did show an excellent attitude when winning the G2 Summer Mile Stakes over 1,594m at Ascot a couple of weeks ago.
ORDER OF AUSTRALIA was well held in third behind BAAEED in the G1 Queen Anne Stakes over 1,600m at Royal Ascot before landing an uncompetitive G2 over 1,400m at Curragh. He could get his own way out in front but that might not be enough for him to improve on his fifth-place finish in this race last year.
SELECTIONS: 1. BAAEED, 5. ALCOHOL FREE, 7. MODERN GAMES, 3. CHINDIT & 4. ORDER OF AUSTRALIA
S2-5 3yo+ Fillies & Mares 86-105 Handicap
William Haggas-trained horses in the Sunderland Holdings colours made famous by the great SEA THE STARS are almost always worth a close look when stepping into handicap company for the first time.
SEA SPEEDWELL, a daughter of the Derby and Arc winner, looks no different as she has shown clear potential in her three runs to date. She won a novice at Kempton over 1,600m last December and went very close to backing that up when second on reappearance in July over 2,000m at Leicester. That trip looked to suit, as she hit the line strongly, and with her opening handicap mark looking more than workable, she should be capable of going close here.
LYRICAL LADY was a hugely impressive winner on just her second start over 1,983m at Salisbury in June, and then ran a nice race in Listed company at Sandown over 1,600m on her most recent outing. That race developed from the front, which didn’t suit Hughie Morrison’s filly as she was patiently ridden, but she still stayed on valiantly in the closing stages to finish fourth. This step back up in trip is sure to see her in a better light, and while she has taken a hike in the weights since her last handicap win, her performance last time hinted at a filly still on the up.
Charlie & Mark Johnston are known for targeting horses at this meeting and they run VALUE THEORY, a filly that has more experience than many in the field after eight starts. She wasn’t disgraced in the G3 Prestige Stakes over 1,400m at Goodwood last season, but has struggled to make her mark in four subsequent handicap starts. However, those efforts haven’t been without promise, especially last time when a keeping-on third at Nottingham over 1,668m, which suggested that this step back up in trip would be in her favour.
NATASHA is another filly that raced in Group company as a 2YO. She made her handicap debut on her recent seasonal reappearance at Newmarket in July, and only weakened into third at the finish, suggesting she might have needed the run. Her handicap mark remains unchanged and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see this daughter of FRANKEL take another step forward now.
Roger Varian’s PERIPATETIC has a similar profile after also finishing third on her recent handicap debut at Salisbury over 1,983m, but while she looks a capable filly, others in here may be better handicapped.
SELECTIONS: 4. SEA SPEEDWELL, 5. LYRICAL LADY, 6. VALUE THEORY, 3. NATASHA & 7. PERIPATETIC
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-5:
Banker – 4. SEA SPEEDWELL
Selections – 5. LYRICAL LADY, 6. VALUE THEORY, 3. NATASHA & 7. PERIPATETIC
S2-6:
Banker – 9. THE PLATINUM QUEEN
Selections – 8. STAR OF LADY M, 10. UNION COURT, 1. ALL THE TIME & 5. CRUISE
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-5: Multiple – 4. SEA SPEEDWELL, 5. LYRICAL LADY & 6. VALUE THEORY
S2-6: Multiple – 9. THE PLATINUM QUEEN, 8. STAR OF LADY M & 10. UNION COURT
S2-7: Multiple – 11. WILD LION, 3. THE ATTORNEY & 4. MUMS TIPPLE
S2-6 2yo Fillies Conditions
This downhill dash over 1,000m takes no prisoners, so a fast start is essential.
On form the one to beat is THE PLATINUM QUEEN, who is all speed and will be suited by this sharp track. THE PLATINUM QUEEN has clearly inherited the electric pace of her sire COTAI GLORY. His four wins were all gained over 1,000m and included the G3 Molecomb Stakes over this course. Having made a winning debut at Ripon over 1,000m, THE PLATINUM QUEEN found G2 company too hot to handle in the Queen Mary Stakes 1,000m at Royal Ascot, but returning to shallower waters, she then travelled strongly at York over 1,000m and won convincingly.
Most experienced in the field is fellow northern raider STAR OF LADY M, who has won four races over this 1,000m trip already. STAR OF LADY M was successful at Redcar, Ripon, Beverley and when giving weight and a sound beating to two previous winners at Musselburgh. She too was outclassed in the 1,000m Listed Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot but both this track and opposition are less taxing.
Richard Hannon’s juveniles always shine on this course and in CRUISE he has another with strong credentials. The trainer never turns the screw too early on the gallops with his juveniles and they nearly always improve for their first run. That ought to be the case with CRUISE, who showed signs of inexperience first time out at Newmarket’s July meeting.
She finished fourth in what looked a decent maiden over 1,200m, but she was a bit keen early on in the race and paid the penalty. However, they will go a stride faster over this shorter trip which will help her settle better.
The sprint-bred UNION COURT showed lots of pace when winning her first two races over 1,000m and 1,015m, at Leicester and Chepstow. She then blew the start in the Windsor Castle Stakes over 1,000m at Ascot but last time out finished a respectable fifth in the Weatherbys Super Sprint over 1,031m at Newbury. Furthermore, she finished third home in those that raced up the centre.
ALL THE TIME is bred for speed and was impressive when winning on her debut at Nottingham over 1,007m. The form has since taken a few knocks and her limitations were exposed in the 1,000m G2 Queen Mary Stakes at the Royal meeting, but she is another who will appreciate dropping back in grade.
SELECTIONS: 9. THE PLATINUM QUEEN, 8. STAR OF LADY M, 10. UNION COURT, 1. ALL THE TIME & 5. CRUISE
S2-7 World Pool Handicap
If punters were hoping for an easy end to Wednesday's card, they can think again as this 1,409m handicap looks a very tricky race to call.
Trainer Richard Hannon has a good record in the race and his MUMS TIPPLE looks worthy of consideration. Back in 2019, the son of FOOTSTEPSINTHESAND put in one of the most impressive performances we'd seen for some time as he destroyed a competitive field in a valuable sales race at York by 11 lengths over 1,200m. He was so impressive that connections pitched him into the G1 Middle Park Stakes over 1,200m after that. Hannon's contender finished down the field that day and has only won once since, but he showed signs of a revival at Newmarket (July Course) last time over 1,400m and runs off the same mark here.
Charlie Hills saddles THE ATTORNEY who run in the 1,400m Bunbury Cup at Newmarket (July Course) last time brings him right into this. That's one of the more competitive handicaps of the British season, so a close fifth was a good effort. The winner of that race ran well at Ascot last weekend, so there is plenty of substance to the form and THE ATTORNEY should go well again off an unchanged mark.
If there is one in the field who we might not have seen the best of yet, then it's WILD LION. Saeed bin Suroor's gelding has had just five starts and was last seen finishing a close third at Leicester over 1,400m. That came after 267 days off the track, so he's entitled to improve and he'll appreciate the faster conditions on offer here.
Jockey Tom Marquand rode the winner of this race back in 2019 and he'll be hoping to double up aboard FARASI LANE. Tom Ward's 4YO gelding has turned himself into a solid handicapper having finished on the podium in nine of his 18 career appearances. He was last seen when finishing a neck second at Windsor over 1,628m and he should still be competitive off a slightly higher mark. FARASI LANE might not have as much improvement in him as some of the others, but he's battle-hardened and is likely to be there or thereabouts again.
SELECTIONS: 11. WILD LION, 3. THE ATTORNEY, 4. MUMS TIPPLE & 5. FARASI LANE
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