Tim Carroll 's Bio

Tim started off as a jockey in Australia before pursuing a media career. He is a highly experienced and respected racing presenter who has been based in England since 2005. Tim has travelled the world covering many of the major meetings, including Royal Ascot, The Epsom Derby, The International meeting from Sha Tin, The Dubai World Cup, The Everest, The Saudi Cup and The Breeders. He is currently a presenter for Sky Sports Racing, specialising in both the local and international scene. Tim is a regular contributor to the At The Races Website where his twice weekly tipping column on Hong Kong racing has gathered a strong following.

Goodwood Racecourse – Track Analysis (Sussex Stakes Day)

Goodwood is one of the most spectacular and unique racecourses in the world. The track is right-handed with two home bends, and all races over 1400m, 1600m and 2200m enter the straight via the lower bend, whilst all others enter via the top bend. The run in from the top bend and lower bend are approximately 900m and 750m respectively, but given the nature of the turns and the downhill gradient, it is considered a sharp track, favouring those on the speed, particularly in shorter races. Horses that are held up off the pace can run into trouble, particularly those on the rail. The track has a straight course with starting points over 1000m and 1200m.

Sussex Stakes day sees seven turf races contested. Two of those on the straight course are the 1000m G3 Molecomb Stakes and 2yo Fillies Conditions are on the straight course. The low barriers are drawn on the far side with high numbers closest the grandstand rail. Over the 1000m horses with speed tend to dominate due to the downhill nature of the course, which is considered one of the fastest in the country. Horses that break slowly can find their race all over at the start. Speed horses are better suited to a low draw.

There are five races on the round course. For the 1409m Oak Tree Stakes and World Pool Handicap, it is generally considered there is no draw bias on the round course, but my own research suggests horses drawn middle to low over 1400m have an advantage in larger fields. The 1984m 3yo+ Fillies & Mares 86-105 Handicap, runners have a long straight run before turning right and like most race starts on the round course, the draw is of little consequence. For the 2403m 3yo 0-105 Handicap, they start from a chute on the left hand side of the course and have a decent straight run before turning right. Like most starts on the round course, there is no draw bias and horses are afforded every opportunity.

For the feature race 1609m G1 Sussex Stakes, the field will jump from halfway up the back straight where they briefly go downhill before climbing uphill then onto the lower loop into the 750m straight. It is generally considered there is no draw bias on the round course, but my own research suggests horses drawn middle to low over 1600m have an advantage in larger fields. Over the last ten years there has only been more than nine runners on one occasion in 2016, and the average field size in that time is 7.2. Given the small size of the fields, the barriers have been of no consequence. Favourites have a good record in the race having been successful six times since 2012. 3YOs tend to do well against the older horses, having won five of the last ten renewals, and whilst horses can come from anywhere to win, not one leader has been successful in the last ten years.

Last year's Sussex Stakes was run on soft ground, with a field of nine going to post. ORDER OF AUSTRALIA, who had finished unplaced behind GOLDEN SIXTY in the Hong Kong Mile earlier, led the field with CENTURY DREAM to his outside, whist the favourite, POETIC FLARE was placed directly behind the leader and ALCOHOL FREE was caught wide early with the rider electing to snag back to find a spot in midfield with cover. As they came into the straight, CENTURY DREAM committed for home and went by ORDER OF AUSTRALIA with POETIC FLARE in hot pursuit, whilst TILSIT and ALCOHOL FREE started to rally in tandem on the outside. POETIC FLARE got to the front 300m from home, but ALCOHOL FREE pounced and outkicked POETIC FLARE over the concluding stages to win by 1.75 lengths with SNOW LANTERN picking up the pieces late to finish third in a time that was 5.73 seconds slower than standard.

Over the last ten years the Sussex Stakes has been run eight times on ground with good in the description. The weather has been warm in Great Britain and with very little rain forecast before raceday. The ground is likely to be good and could even be on the firm side if the forecast is correct.

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