Expert - Bill Esdaile
Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races.

Expert Column for Nassau Stakes Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)

S1-1 3yo Handicap

MIGDAM looks a typical Sir Michael Stoute improver. He won twice over 1,600m on the polytrack at Kempton last September but has the potential to become a Group horse on turf. After nine months off, MIGDAM completed the hat-trick when making his handicap debut at Doncaster over 2,039m in June. Bred to eventually shine over middle-distances, he relished the step up in trip that day. Once he escaped from a pocket in the straight, he quickly put the race to bed and the form received a boost when the third horse won next time. 

Godolphin’s WARREN POINT did not race at two, but he has made up for lost time in his second season. Despite winning his first two races over 2,000m at Newmarket and 2,039m at Doncaster, WARREN POINT clearly found that trip to be his minimum. Consequently, it was no surprise when he tackled 2,392m at Ascot for his first handicap, where he chased home stablemate WILD CRUSADE. Stamina is his strong suit, so he will need a strong gallop. 

One can also visualise VEE SIGHT developing into a stayer as the season progresses. Related to both Oaks heroine LOOK HERE and Prix Royal Oak winner SCOPE, VEE SIGHT may not come into his own until he tackles longer distances. Gelded last winter, he was given a real chance by the handicapper on his belated seasonal return at Sandown in June over 1,800m. He duly delivered, coming from the rear to power home, and he was never going better than at the end, so even an extra distance here is a plus. 

ASAASSI showed promise on the polytrack over 1,600m at two, but following a wind operation in the winter, he won on his turf debut in a maiden at Salisbury in June over 1,983m. The step up in trip clearly suited ASAASSI, who settled better when winning his first handicap at York over 2,051m next time. He will enjoy this fast ground and should be thereabouts. 

WANEES has won three of his five races, and Charlie Hills said that he has improved mentally as he has got more racing. The ground is immaterial to him as he won on fast ground at Ascot over 1,400m last season and also enjoyed the soft when following up at Salisbury over 1,394m. WANEES took a further step up the ladder on his return at Sandown over 1,600m in April. He came from off the pace to win a competitive 3YO handicap. The four-timer proved beyond him in the Britannia Stakes over 1,600m at Royal Ascot. But he ran respectably and is bred to appreciate this extra distance.

SELECTIONS: 3. MIGDAM, 12. VEE SIGHT, 4. WARREN POINT, 8. ASAASSI & 5. WANEES

S1-2 Richmond Stakes

This year’s G2 Richmond Stakes over 1,200m looks a pretty open contest with all nine runners open to plenty of improvement.

The eye is drawn to ROYAL SCOTSMAN whose G2 Coventry Stakes third looks the strongest piece of form on offer. He was a very good winner over course and distance on his previous start where he had BLUELIGHT BAY in behind him, and he certainly enhanced his reputation at Ascot last time. A repeat performance would see him hard to beat.

As mentioned, BLUELIGHT BAY finished second to ROYAL SCOTSMAN at Goodwood over 1,200m which was a more than solid display on debut. He then stepped up on the promise he displayed there when winning nicely at Windsor over 1,211m. Eve Johnson Houghton’s horses are in flying form and BLUELIGHT BAY should go nicely here.

CHATEAU comes into this after a good display to win the Listed Rose Bowl Stakes over 1,200m and he’s more than entitled to have a go at this G2 prize. He didn’t run badly in the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes over 1,000m either and is an improving colt who must be respected, especially as his trainer Andrew Balding is having plenty of winners.

Two first time out winners can complete the placings in the shape of AL KARRAR and MARSHMAN.

AL KARRAR is a nicely bred son of DARK ANGEL and showed considerable promise on his debut at Windsor over 1,211m. He put the field to bed with ease in the style of a good horse and there looks to be plenty of substance to the form with two of the horses he beat having won since. This is a big step up in class, but connections must think plenty of him to pitch him into this company so early in his career.

MARSHMAN kicked off his career with a nice performance in an Ayr maiden over 1,200m. He showed a good attitude and like with AL KARRAR, the form has been boosted subsequently. MARSHMAN will surely improve again, although it might be a bit of a stretch for him to beat some of the market principles on just his second start.

SELECTIONS: 7. ROYAL SCOTSMAN, 3. CHATEAU, 2. BLUELIGHT BAY, 1. AL KARRAR & 6. MARSHMAN

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 7. ROYAL SCOTSMAN
Selections – 3. CHATEAU, 2. BLUELIGHT BAY, 1. AL KARRAR & 6. MARSHMAN
S1-3:
Banker – 8. NEW LONDON
Selections – 10. WEST WIND BLOWS, 5. HOO YA MAL, 7. MASEKELA & 2. AL QAREEM

S1-3 Gordon Stakes

The Gordon Stakes often attracts the Derby also-rans to this 2,403m G3 prize.

NEW LONDON didn’t make it to the Epsom Classic after he was surprisingly beaten by CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD in the G3 Chester Vase over 2,457m in his trial race. He bounced back from that first defeat when he easily landed a hot 2,000m handicap at Newmarket (July Course) three weeks ago. The return to this longer distance will not be a problem and he looks well up to this level now he is back in form.

WEST WIND BLOWS lost his unbeaten record when only ninth behind DESERT CROWN in the G1 Derby Stakes over 2,405m at Epsom. That gives him a bit of ground to make up on HOO YA MAL and MASEKELA, who both finished in front of him, but there are reasons to think he can reverse the form. He was caught quite wide early on and he sat closer to the decent pace. The fact he was still there 500m from home suggests that was a good effort. He was very impressive when dominating the Listed Glasgow Stakes over 2,214m at Hamilton two weeks ago and he remains a smart prospect.

HOO YA MAL was totally unfancied in the Derby betting but he put in a cracking effort when runner-up behind DESERT CROWN. The step up to 2,405m for the first time clearly suited him at Epsom and the solid pace also helped. He’s been sold since and he is likely to move to Australia for a crack at the Melbourne Cup. This will be his debut for young Classic-winning trainer George Boughey.

Andrew Balding, who used to train HOO YA MAL, runs MASEKELA. He stayed on from the rear to finish fourth in the Derby Stakes but the race didn’t develop anywhere near as well for his hold-up style in the G3 Bahrain Trophy Stakes over 2,600m at Newmarket (July Course) three weeks ago. The way he pulled hard in the early stages did him no favours and he was poorly positioned in rear when the race got serious. This race should suit him much better.

AL QAREEM went down by just a head to DEAUVILLE LEGEND in the Bahrain Trophy Stakes after making the running in that G3 at Newmarket (July Course). If he goes off in front again, he is likely to just set it up for some of the less-aggressively ridden horses.

SELECTIONS: 8. NEW LONDON, 10. WEST WIND BLOWS, 5. HOO YA MAL, 7. MASEKELA & 2. AL QAREEM

S1-4 Nassau Stakes

3YOs get plenty of weight from their elders in the G1 Nassau Stakes over 1,984m and in the last 10 years seven of that generation have taken advantage.

That is a good sign for NASHWA who comes here after a game win in the G1 Prix de Diane over 2,100m at Chantilly, where she had to show real grit to hold off a very persistent rival in the final 400m. Before that she had run third in the G1 Oaks at Epsom over 2,405m, when probably not quite seeing out the trip. John & Thady Gosden’s filly is fine over this distance, though, and if handling the track, she looks the one to beat in receipt of the handy 3YO weight allowance.

LILAC ROAD finished behind both DREAMLOPER and VILLE DE GRACE at Newmarket over 1,800m earlier this season, but bounced back to win the G2 Middleton Fillies Stakes over 2,051m on her next start. In doing so, she reversed Newmarket form with VILLE DE GRACE and showed a nice attitude to quicken up from the rear of the field off a slow early gallop. There looks to be more to come from this tough and genuine daughter of MASTERCRAFTSMAN and she might be the one to throw down the main challenge to NASHWA.

Ed Walker’s DREAMLOPER has already had a productive season, winning a G2 at Newmarket and following up in the G1 Prix d’Ispahan over 1,850m at ParisLongchamp in May. She wasn’t at her best last time out in the G1 Pretty Polly Stakes when stepped up to 2,000m for the first time. That poor run has to be a worry, but given the speed she displays, this sharp, downhill track might play to her strengths.

The track might be more of a concern for Sir Michael Stoute’s VILLE DE GRACE who looked a bit one paced at York on her last outing behind LILAC ROAD. She’s likely to be ridden prominently but could face competition for the lead and prove vulnerable in the closing stages.

CONCERT HALL has been operating at a good level this season, finishing third in G1 Irish 1000 Guineas on her reappearance run and then going on to finish fourth in three subsequent G1s over distances from 2,000m to 2,405m. Her last effort came in the G1 Belmont Oaks Invitational Stakes over 2,000m where she stayed on but was never seriously involved in the finish. She gave the impression there that a step up in trip would suit her and over this sharp 1,984m she might find things happening a bit quickly.

SELECTIONS: 7. NASHWA, 3. LILAC ROAD, 2. DREAMLOPER, 4. VILLE DE GRACE & 5. CONCERT HALL

S1-5 2yo Handicap

This is one of the trickier races of the week to find the winner and with a field of inexperienced young handicappers with questions to answer over the 1,409m trip, it’s not hard to see why. 

TRUE STATESMAN has already tasted handicap success over this 1,401m distance and has obvious claims. His dam was a winner over 1,200m and he took a step forward from last month’s maiden victory over Chelmsford’s 1,200m to go and land a nursery at Chester over 1,401m earlier this month. He had a couple of previous winners in behind him and while he has to carry top weight in this, he may be able to take this on his way to bigger things. 

FAR SHOT looks like one of the main dangers to the selection for John & Thady Gosden. The son of KODIAC was a debut winner at Yarmouth over the 1,038m trip and was clearly highly regarded at home as they then sent him to the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot over 1,000m. While he finished down the field that day, he was able to bounce back to form in a nursery again at Ascot over 1,200m, finishing second beaten just a neck. It remains to be seen how he will handle the step up in trip, but both his sire and damsire were winners over 1,400m and 1,300m respectively, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he was able to find a bit more over this extra distance. 

SUNNINGDALE is another expected to go well. He has tackled this 1,400m trip once in his three starts and that was in a classier affair than this, the Listed Chesham Stakes. Beaten by a freak performance by debutant HOLLOWAY BOY, this Paul and Oliver Cole-trained colt was given an easy ride home by Jim Crowley and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him make his presence felt at the finish.        

MISS JUNGLE CAT is another that has been seen in deeper waters when contesting a Listed fillies’ contest at Newmarket (July Course) over 1,200m. While not making much of an impression in that, she will have a lot less weight to concern herself with compared to her rivals in this and that could be a factor at the finish.

Rounding out the selections is COCO JACK for George Scott. This three-time winner is more exposed than the others, but with one of those wins coming over the same trip, that experience could prove valuable.

SELECTIONS: 1. TRUE STATESMAN, 3. FAR SHOT, 9. SUNNINGDALE, 7. MISS JUNGLE CAT & 2. COCO JACK

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 1. TRUE STATESMAN
Selections – 3. FAR SHOT, 9. SUNNINGDALE, 7. MISS JUNGLE CAT & 2. COCO JACK
S1-6:
Banker – 1. NAVELLO
Selections – 2. SHAMLAAN, 3. GET AHEAD, 7. SIR HENRY COTTON & 8. DUSKY PRINCE


TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 1. TRUE STATESMAN, 3. FAR SHOT & 9. SUNNINGDALE
S1-6: Multiple – 1. NAVELLO, 2. SHAMLAAN & 3. GET AHEAD
S1-7: Multiple – 17. SPARKLING BEAUTY, 7. LUCKIN BREW & 20. ZARGA

S1-6 World Pool Handicap

NAVELLO and SHAMLAAN finished fifth and sixth in what was a messy race at Chester over 1,014m a few weeks ago. There were plenty of higher rated horses in that contest than line up here, and it could prove to be a good form-line to follow. The first mentioned produced a particularly impressive effort, as he was squeezed out by rivals at the start and was forced back to the rear of the field. Having started near the rail, George Boughey’s runner found himself nearly on the outside of the field entering the home straight, but despite that he finished his race off better than anything down the centre of the track. He’s been dropped slightly in the weights for that, which could prove lenient as he was clearly better than his finishing position suggested at Chester.

SHAMLAAN has course and distance form to his name having narrowly beaten SIR HENRY COTTON here over 1,000m in April. He wasn’t at his best at Chester but should be happier back at this venue and doesn’t look out of this at the weights. Both NAVELLO and SHAMLAAN should benefit from returning to race against their own age group after competing against their elders last time and they look two major players.

Since narrowly missing out at Goodwood in April, SIR HENRY COTTON has taken his form to a new level, winning twice and rising significantly in the weights. He steps into better company here, though, and is far worse off with SHAMLAAN than when they met earlier in the season, so that could leave him vulnerable.

In contrast, Clive Cox’s GET AHEAD drops in class after running three good races in Listed class so far this season. Last time out, he stepped into handicap company for the first time at Ascot over 1,000m, and while he was never involved in the finish, he wasn’t beaten far in what was a much better race than this one. Now dropped slightly in the weights, he should be capable of being very competitive at this level.

DUSKY PRINCE comes here on the back of three consecutive wins in lesser company. He showed a good attitude to tough it out at Doncaster over 1,003m last time and the form of that race has worked out reasonably well, with the second winning and third finishing a close second since. Archie Watson’s gelding will need a career best to win this off his new handicap mark, but in his current form it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him run into the frame.

SELECTIONS: 1. NAVELLO, 2. SHAMLAAN, 3. GET AHEAD, 7. SIR HENRY COTTON & 8. DUSKY PRINCE

S1-7 2yo Fillies Maiden

Richard Hughes rode lots of winners at this meeting as a jockey and his SPARKLING BEAUTY has a good chance of giving him a Goodwood Festival success as a trainer. There was a lot to like about this daughter of OASIS DREAM’s debut when she finished runner-up behind LIFTOFF over 1,400m at Newbury last month. She was sandwiched by more experienced fillies in that novice race and the field was strung out in the closing stages suggesting the form is good. There’s every reason to expect a big chunk of improvement from SPARKLING BEAUTY and that would make her a leading player in this 1,409m fillies’ maiden.

LUCKIN BREW has a lovely pedigree. She’s a sister of dual G3 winner ANTONIA DE VEGA, also trained by Ralph Beckett, so the trainer knows this family well. There was a lot of promise in the debut performance of LUCKIN BREW when runner-up in a 1,400m Newmarket (July Course) maiden a couple of weeks ago. There’s no doubt she will come into her own over further next year, but her sibling did win a G3 at this course over 1,400m as a 2YO.

ZARGA ran a race full of promise on her first career outing when she finished a close third over 1,400m on Kempton’s polytrack last month. She took time to settle into a rhythm in the early stages, but she came home strongly suggesting she will take a big step forward from that debut effort. Her dam, STRAWBERRYDAIQUIRI, won the G2 Windsor Forest Stakes at Royal Ascot for Sir Michael Stoute, who also trains ZARGA, so she is bred to be smart.

WINNARETTA was taking on more experienced rivals on her debut over 1,200m at Kempton on the polytrack. She was on the back foot following a slow start but there was a lot to like about the way she finished her race. With that debut behind her, she should be an awful lot sharper.

CHELSEA GREEN makes her debut and she is related to several smart American horses. She has a big reputation, her trainer Hugo Palmer has his team in good form and his 2YOs have been running especially well.

SELECTIONS: 17. SPARKLING BEAUTY, 7. LUCKIN BREW, 20. ZARGA, 19. WINNARETTA & 3. CHELSEA GREEN

Disclaimer:

The above content and information are the personal views and/or opinions of each individual writer and do not represent the views of The Hong Kong Jockey Club and/or its subsidiaries (together, the "HKJC"). The content and information are provided by the writers solely for entertainment purpose only, and should not be construed as a suggestion for anyone to place any bet nor should they be taken and/or relied upon as advice of any kind. The above content and information have not been verified, confirmed and/or endorsed by HKJC and HKJC shall not be liable to any person for any loss or damage suffered by such person as a result of any use or reliance of the above content or information.

HKJC shall not be required to give and does not give any warranty, whether express or implied, arising out of or in connection with the content or information. The Club disclaims any responsibility and accepts no liability (whether in tort, contract or otherwise) for any direct or indirect loss of damage arising from any inaccuracies, omission or typographical errors that may be contained therein. The Club also does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for purpose of any such information.