 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
|---|---|
| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Prix Jacques le Marois Day (S2) (Bill Esdaile)
S2-1 Prix Nureyev
LASSAUT will find the 2,000m Listed Prix Nureyev easier than the French Classics he has run in on his last two starts. He missed the break in the 1,600m G1 Poule d’Essai des Poulains at ParisLongchamp before staying on into a creditable fifth behind MODERN GAMES. The step up to 2,100m in the G1 Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly looked sure to suit but he again got going too late when eighth having raced in the rear in a race dominated by horses ridden much more prominently. The way he came sweeping down the outside to beat smart TRIBALIST at Chantilly over 1,600m back in March gives him a great chance.
CARINI made it three wins in a row when successful over 2,000m at ParisLongchamp last month. Although he only crossed the winning line a length in front of runner-up PERCY SHELLEY, he was well on top with Christophe Soumillon looking around as he took up the running 200m from home. The form of that race is strong and he looks well up to this Listed level. His pedigree suggests he’ll stay further but he has more than enough speed for this 2,000m distance.
DREAMFLIGHT was no match for unbeaten FACTEUR CHEVAL in a 1,600m Listed race at Chantilly last month. The way he battled on to grab the runner-up spot suggested he was ready for the return to 2,000m and he is bred to appreciate this longer distance. His fourth behind subsequent Prix du Jockey Club winner VADENI in a Chantilly G3 over 1,800m in May also suggested Andre Fabre’s colt has the stamina for this distance.
JACK DARCY will be happier back over 2,000m having pulled too hard when fourth behind St. Leger Stakes favourite NEW LONDON in the G3 Gordon Stakes over 2,398m at Goodwood a couple of weeks ago. His Newbury defeat of useful SPECIAL ENVOY over 2,000m on his first run of the season came in the manner of a very smart prospect. Paul and Oliver Cole’s British raider clearly has the ability to be competitive at this Listed level.
ATHABASCAN – Fabre’s second runner – didn’t appear to have the stamina for 2,400m in a Chantilly G3 in June. He bounced back to form when returned to 2,000m at Compiegne last month although he was no match for EPIC POET when runner-up in that Listed race.
SELECTIONS: 6. LASSAUT, 2. CARINI, 1. DREAMFLIGHT & 3. JACK DARCY
S2-2 Class 2 Handicap
Stephane Wattel trains next to the course at Deauville and always likes to have runners at this summer meeting.
This has been the target for his BADEN ROCKS since he prepped at Saint-Cloud over 2,400m early last month, finishing strongly in second place. BADEN ROCKS, who had been off six months, blew the start that day so had to come from the back, yet he rattled home and failed by only a short head to catch previous winner PANJAMAN. BADEN ROCKS has both speed and stamina and won over 3,400m here last December, yet this 2,500m is probably his best trip. He just gets in the handicap at the bottom, and, with Arc-winning jockey Stephane Pasquier in the saddle he is well worth an interest.
Top weight BELGIAN PRINCE sets the standard in what looks a wide-open race, having produced his best run yet when winning at Chantilly over 3,000m in June. He is equally effective over this shorter trip, and, having run creditably in two subsequent runs since Chantilly over 2,400m and 3,000m, he has to be respected.
SANTA ZOO, though a 7YO mare, has retained all her enthusiasm for racing. She showed plenty of spirit when winning handicaps over 2,400m at Nantes and Chantilly. Though, then disappointing in the hat-trick bid off her highest mark yet at Saint-Cloud over 2,400m last month, SANTA ZOO has largely been consistent, boasting seven wins and five places so far.
Another with sound prospects is SMILE MAKERS, who, being only four, might have more improvement than most. He won twice last season, and, though still looking for a first success in 2022, he was flying too high in 2,100m G1 Prix Ganay at ParisLongchamp in May. However, SMILE MAKERS was then beaten less than a length into third place when dropped back down in grade over the same course over 2,800m. A reproduction of that form would put him right in the mix here.
SASAKIA, now trained in France after starting life with Charlie Appleby in Newmarket, is not one of Godolphin’s superstars, but she should not be underrated. She won three races with one at 2,000m and two at 2,400m at the French provinces in the spring. Mickael Barzalona rides, too, which is always a plus.
SELECTIONS: 16. BADEN ROCKS, 3. SMILE MAKERS, 2. SANTA ZOO, 7. SASAKIA & 1. BELGIAN PRINCE
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-2:
Banker – 16. BADEN ROCKS
Selections – 3. SMILE MAKERS, 2. SANTA ZOO, 7. SASAKIA & 1. BELGIAN PRINCE
S2-3:
Banker – 6. COROEBUS
Selections – 9. INSPIRAL, 4. STATE OF REST, 5. EREVANN & 8. PROSPEROUS VOYAGE
S2-3 Prix Jacques le Marois
This year’s G1 Prix Jacques le Marois over 1,600m looks an absolute cracker with some high-quality horses lining up.
COROEBUS should go off favourite and it’s not hard to see why Charlie Appleby’s colt is fancied to go well. The son of DUBAWI has won four of his five career races, including the G1 2000 Guineas over 1,600m at Newmarket on his seasonal reappearance. He didn’t have the easiest passage when taking out the G1 St James's Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot over 1,594m last time but stuck his head out when it mattered and so he must be taken seriously here.
John & Thady Gosden have won this in the last two years and they are responsible for INSPIRAL this time around. She was a perfect four-from-four in her 2YO season and begun the new campaign with a dominant display in the G1 Coronation Stakes over 1,594m at Royal Ascot. The 4.8 lengths win there saw her sent off a very short price for the G1 Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket, but she ran below par to finish second to PROSPEROUS VOYAGE. If she can bounce back her then she’s a real player.
STATE OF REST is another key contender. Joseph O’Brien’s challenge comes into this after winning the G1 Prince of Wales's Stakes over 1,993m at Royal Ascot – the fourth G1 win of his career. He’s won four of his last five races, so is in great form and the only concern with him is the drop back in trip. If he handles it, then he’ll surely be there or thereabouts.
The best of the home challenge could come from EREVANN. Jean-Claude Rouget’s colt is light on experience having only had three runs, but he’s unbeaten. The most recent of those came in the G3 Prix Paul de Moussac over 1,600m at Chantilly where he showed a good attitude to win. He is likely to have plenty more to come.
As mentioned, PROSPEROUS VOYAGE got the better of INSPIRAL in the G1 Falmouth Stakes. She might have been unfancied that day but she won nicely and she’s more than worth her place in this line-up. Impressively, she’s only finished outside of the first three in two of her nine career starts, so it’s more than likely that she’ll put in another solid performance here. Ralph Beckett’s filly is certainly no back marker.
SELECTIONS: 6. COROEBUS, 9. INSPIRAL, 4. STATE OF REST, 5. EREVANN & 8. PROSPEROUS VOYAGE
S2-4 Prix Gontaut-Biron Hong Kong Jockey Club
There are several with interesting profiles in the G3 Prix Gontaut-Biron Hong Kong Jockey Club, though the best place to start might be MAJESTIC DAWN.
Paul & Oliver Cole’s 6YO seems to have really thrived with age. He won the hugely competitive Cambridgeshire Handicap at Newmarket over 1,800m by nearly five lengths in 2020 and continued to run well before another dominant performance in a Salisbury handicap over 2,000m. The son of DAWN APPROACH begun this season with an impressive front-running victory in a Listed contest at Goodwood and he could be tough to catch again if given another soft lead by his rivals.
The home challenge is likely to be headed by last year’s WALLY. Jean-Claude Rouget’s striking grey comes into this after a good win in the G3 Prix Messidor over 1,600m. The son of SIYOUNI’s win there meant he’s won three times at G3 level, while he also won the G2 Gran Premio di Milano over 2,000m last year as well. He should enjoy the step back up to 2000m and his record in this type of company makes him appealing.
Andreas Schutz’s MONTY should go well again after finishing runner-up in this contest 12 months ago. He was last seen winning the G3 La Coupe over 2,000m – arguably the best performance of his career so far as he beat some solid horses. MONTY finished just a short-head second to WALLY in this race last year and while he hasn’t been running against as strong as opposition as 12 months ago, he’s in good form having won two of his last three and finishing runner-up on the other occasion.
RIOCORVO looks ready for a go at this prize after an impressive victory last time at Vichy. He won the 2,000m G3 Grand Prix De Vichy by three lengths and it looks a run that can be marked up given the second, SUNDORO, had won a Listed contest the time before, while EMBLEM ROAD, the winner of the G1 Saudi Cup, was back in fifth. That’s very strong form and this lightly-raced 6YO looks like he’s got plenty more to give having had only nine career starts so far.
SELECTIONS: 5. MAJESTIC DAWN, 2. RIOCORVO, 3. WALLY & 1. MONTY
S2-5 Prix Minerve
Charlie Appleby’s ETERNAL PEARL has been thrown into the deep end in the G3 Prix Minerve. A Listed winner at Newmarket (July Course) over 2,400m in July, she seems to be progressing in the right direction and this is the next logical step up for this daughter of FRANKEL. She seems to have lots of stamina and the extra 100m in this race should not be a problem for her.
She will take on the Jean-Marie Beguigne-trained LASTOTCHKA, who won her Listed 2,400m at ParisLongchamp in June and has since run second in the G2 Prix de Malleret to the very good RACLETTE who is going to be supplemented for the G1 Yorkshire Oaks at York. Only a head separated the two fillies in the Prix de Malleret and she should be able to build on that experience and dominate this race where the opposition is not quite as strong as last time.
ZEFANIA, who is trained in Germany by Sascha Smrczek, was a winner on her first start in a maiden over 1,400m last year and has since improved beyond recognition. Well beaten on her seasonal reappearance, when she was still a bit rusty, she went on to win the Conditions race at Lyon Parilly over 2,400m. Her next start took her to Milan, where she finished a very good third in the G2 Oaks d’Italia over 2,200m, before finishing fourth in the Prix de Malleret. This drop back in class and reunited with Gerald Mosse, who steered her to victory at Lyon Parilly, could gain her another success.
The Ed Walker-trained KAWIDA, who sports the colours of Kirsten Rausing, made a big splash when she finished fifth to TUESDAY in the G1 Oaks over 2,405m at Epsom on only her second start this season and first attempt at that level. Following that good performance, she flopped completely when running last in the G2 Lancashire Oaks over the same trip. She has had a mini break since and Tom Marquand, who won a Listed race over 1,600m at Newmarket with her on her final start last season, has been booked to ride her again.
The very well bred filly FENNELA, who is travelling to France from Ireland, has also already been tested in G1 company. She ran sixth in the G1 Irish Oaks over 2,400m after winning her maiden on her third start this season. Bred to stay over the longer distances, this race could give her a first victory at Group level.
SELECTIONS: 3. LASTOTCHKA, 5. ETERNAL PEARL, 6. FENNELA, 9. KAWIDA & 7. ZEFANIA
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-5:
Banker – 3. LASTOTCHKA
Selections – 5. ETERNAL PEARL, 6. FENNELA, 9. KAWIDA & 7. ZEFANIA
S2-6:
Banker – 9. NICE STROKE
Selections – 1. QUICK FLASH, 3. AVERNES, 5. SITUMELEDEMANDAIS & 2. MOON WOLF
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-5: Multiple – 3. LASTOTCHKA, 5. ETERNAL PEARL & 6. FENNELA
S2-6: Multiple – 9. NICE STROKE, 1. QUICK FLASH & 3. AVERNES
S2-7: Multiple – 3. MAFALDA STORY, 2. THE TIME & 13. MR SLICKER
S2-6 Class 3 Handicap
NICE STROKE has been consistent over a variety of distances and he looks the answer to this 2,500m handicap. He stayed on in determined fashion when successful over 2,200m at ParisLongchamp last month in a competitive handicap. That was at the bottom of his range of distances and he proved he has plenty of stamina when runner-up over 2,800m at ParisLongchamp in May. This 2,500m should be ideal and, while he doesn’t have a rapid change of pace, he has an excellent attitude and will keep grinding away in the closing stages.
QUICK FLASH is equally as versatile. He won over 2,350m at Machecoul in March and followed up with another victory when successful over 3,100m at Nantes. His third behind PAPER TROPHY over 2,400m at Clairefontaine last month was an excellent effort considering he tried to come from further back than ideal and he challenged furthest away from the favoured stands’ rail. This race should set up better for his style of running.
AVERNES did well to win over 2,400m at Clairefontaine two weeks ago. She travelled really nicely in the rear throughout the race but she had a wall of horses in front of her as they turned into the straight. Her jockey had to switch her off the rail into the middle of the course but, once she was in the clear, she stormed home to win impressively. She does need things to go her way but she is a talented filly.
SITUMELEDEMANDAIS has hit form in recent races. He pulled a bit too hard for his own good when fading into fourth behind VASY SAKHEE over 2,800m at ParisLongchamp in June. The return to 2,400m has suited him better. He came home really strongly over that distance when runner-up at Saint-Cloud and he then won with slightly more in hand than the three-quarters of a length winning distance over 2,400m at Dieppe. If he is able to settle just behind a sound gallop, he would have a chance of following up.
MOON WOLF has plenty of stamina. His only win came over 2,900m at Clairefontaine last year, but he wasn’t disgraced on his first run of this season when fifth over 2,500m on Deauville’s polytrack in March. The steady early pace didn’t help him that day and he will be suited by the faster gallop he should get in this race.
SELECTIONS: 9. NICE STROKE, 1. QUICK FLASH, 3. AVERNES, 5. SITUMELEDEMANDAIS & 2. MOON WOLF
S2-7 Class 3 Handicap
In this very open handicap, MAFALDA STORY could once more be competitive. She started her season early in Cagnes-Sur-Mer where she lifted a handicap over 1,600m on the polytrack before scoring again over 1,500m at Marseille. Her handicap mark this season has gone up considerably as the season progressed, but that did not stop her from scoring in a 1,400m race at Vichy on her last start. She had to give away a lot of weight and showed herself very courageous to hold on to victory. She meets the 6YO gelding THE TIME off the same handicap mark.
THE TIME has been just as consistent and has already won a race over the same course and distance in December last year. This season, following a little break, he ran second to his stable companion RED KITTEN in a 1,400m handicap at ParisLongchamp before scoring again a little later at Compiegne over 1,400m. While he has been placed in between in races over 1,600m, he will appreciate the return to the shorter trip here.
RED KITTEN, who is trained by Dany de Waele in Belgium, is currently in great form but that also means he is placed high in the handicap. He was the runner-up in a handicap over 1,400m at ParisLongchamp in June and won a race over 1,600m at Vichy in July. He then finished second in a 1,300m race and while he has to carry a lot of weight here, he should be competitive. As the runner-up of this same race last year, it would not be a surprise if he finished in the first five.
The Andrew Hollinshead-trained MR SLICKER has been out of form this season and consequently his handicap mark has dropped significantly. Considering that he ran second in a race over the same course and distance in December last year off a much higher handicap mark, he could be ready to spring a surprise. He hasn’t run since finishing down the field in a conditions race at Amiens over 1,650m at the beginning of June and that little bit of freshness might serve him well.
Her last performances have been proof that the 6YO mare NO NIKI NO is currently in great form. Following an inconspicuous start to the 2022 season, she has already scored twice in similar company this summer. She certainly appreciated the drop in trip and is highly likely to produce another good performance in this handicap.
SELECTIONS: 3. MAFALDA STORY, 2. THE TIME, 13. MR SLICKER, 4. NO NIKI NO & 1. RED KITTEN
Disclaimer:
The above content and information are the personal views and/or opinions of each individual writer and do not represent the views of The Hong Kong Jockey Club and/or its subsidiaries (together, the "HKJC"). The content and information are provided by the writers solely for entertainment purpose only, and should not be construed as a suggestion for anyone to place any bet nor should they be taken and/or relied upon as advice of any kind. The above content and information have not been verified, confirmed and/or endorsed by HKJC and HKJC shall not be liable to any person for any loss or damage suffered by such person as a result of any use or reliance of the above content or information.
HKJC shall not be required to give and does not give any warranty, whether express or implied, arising out of or in connection with the content or information. The Club disclaims any responsibility and accepts no liability (whether in tort, contract or otherwise) for any direct or indirect loss of damage arising from any inaccuracies, omission or typographical errors that may be contained therein. The Club also does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for purpose of any such information.
