 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
|---|---|
| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Nunthorpe Stakes Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 3yo+ Handicap
AMTIYAZ is an intriguing entry in this equally intriguing handicap over 2,381m. The 5YO son of FRANKEL has not run since finishing third in a competitive handicap at Newmarket (July Course) last year, but even though such a long absence is always a worry, John and Thady Gosden have a good record of producing horses to win first time out. The trip might be slightly too short for him but for a first start this season it might suit and he could spring a surprise.
The horse to beat is the Denis Coakley-trained PARTY ISLAND who has won his last two starts on the polytrack at Lingfield. Ridden with a lot of confidence in the 2,400m handicap and despite carrying top weight, he surged into the lead as they left the final turn and there was absolutely no catching him. The only concern is how he handles the turf, a surface he hasn’t won on since scoring in a handicap in July 2020.
JUAN DE MONTALBAN is the class act in this field. He was the runner-up in last year’s G2 Italian Derby over 2,200m before travelling to England where he initially was unable to reproduce that form. This season, following a switch to Kevin Philippart de Foy, he has already won two handicaps over 2,392m and while he comes in at the top end of the handicap, he should be very competitive, providing the ground doesn’t go too soft.
MAHRAJAAN enjoyed a fabulous season last year when he won three consecutive races, including a first handicap over 2,400m. This year, the William Haggas-trained son of KITTEN'S JOY was beaten on his seasonal reappearance and then completely lost his way in the John Smith’s Cup over 2,051m at York, where something must have been amiss for him to finish last. On his next start at Newmarket (July Course), he was already running much closer to his old form and even though he was beaten by a neck on the finish line, he will have improved and that form will put him right in the mix here.
CHARGING THUNDER is currently in the form of his life. In eight starts this season, he has only been out of the first two once. He is still looking for a first victory at York and if the ground went soft, he would be at a disadvantage, but he is a relentless galloper and he must be respected.
SELECTIONS: 17. PARTY ISLAND, 2. JUAN DE MONTALBAN, 4. MAHRAJAAN, 5. CHARGING THUNDER & 3. AMTIYAZ
S1-2 Lonsdale Cup
STRADIVARIUS will be trying to break his own record of three wins in the race when he contests the G2 Lonsdale Cup over 3,261m. The veteran stayer has been unlucky in his campaign so far this year, only recording one win from three outings. His sole win, though, did come at this track at the start of the season in the G2 Yorkshire Cup Stakes over 2,771m proving that he clearly has an affection for this course having a perfect record of six wins from six runs here. In his two other outings he has lost out to the new star of the staying division, KYPRIOS. However, he hasn’t lost much in defeat, and he certainly had his excuses in the G1 Gold Cup over 3,991m. If he can reproduce his run that saw him lose out to KYPRIOS by a neck in the G1 Goodwood Cup over 3,200m last time, that should be enough to see off his rivals in this.
Heading those challengers will be TRUESHAN, who chased home the selection in the Goodwood Cup when finishing third. That run came on the back of an impressive weight carrying performance when landing the Northumberland Plate handicap over 3,251m back in June. Alan King’s gelding will be hoping that the weather takes a turn for the worse and that the ground will be on the testing side as he showed himself to good effect in soft conditions on his seasonal reappearance when landing a Listed event at Nottingham over 2,800m at the start of the season.
Chasing him home in second that day was QUICKTHORN, who has since gone on to win the G3 Henry II Stakes over 3,245m and G2 Prix Maurice de Nieuil over 2,800m. The son of NATHANIEL appears to be finding his feet after a mixed year last season, although he did finish runner up in the ultra-competitive Ebor handicap in that time.
COLTRANE is an interesting contender having only had his first run in Group company last time out. That was in the aforementioned Goodwood Cup where he finished a credible fourth. However, there could be some improvement to come from Andrew Balding’s gelding if learning from the experience.
Rounding out the selections is TASHKHAN. He’s a consistent sort who, while not doing a lot of winning, always seems to run his race. Brian Ellison’s gelding will need to put in a career best effort to throw it down to these challengers.
SELECTIONS: 5. STRADIVARIUS, 7. TRUESHAN, 1. COLTRANE, 3. QUICKTHORN & 6. TASHKHAN
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 5. STRADIVARIUS
Selections – 7. TRUESHAN, 1. COLTRANE, 3. QUICKTHORN & 6. TASHKHAN
S1-3:
Banker – 11. NOBLE STYLE
Selections – 1. ROYAL SCOTSMAN, 9. MARSHMAN, 3. CHATEAU & 5. CLEARPOINT
S1-3 Gimcrack Stakes
It wouldn’t be a surprise if NOBLE STYLE went off favourite here considering Charlie Appleby’s current strike rate. Nearly every horse he saddles is a winner and the son of KINGMAN was no exception when he added a 1,000m Novice race to his successful debut at Ascot where he put ROYAL SCOTSMAN firmly in his place. At Newmarket (July Course), he produced a gutsy performance under David Probert to beat the highly regarded MILL STREAM by half of a length and must be considered seriously here.
Since meeting at Ascot in May, the Paul and Oliver Cole-trained ROYAL SCOTSMAN has undergone a complete transformation. From a debut where he couldn’t quite quicken with the rest of the field, he has gone on to a third place in the G2 Coventry Stakes over 1,200m and a victory in the G2 Richmond Stakes over 1,200m. He is currently in great form and with entries in all the major G1 races in the autumn, there is likely plenty more to come. As a G2 winner, he carries a penalty, but that should not really make a difference.
The Andrew Balding-trained CHATEAU came home three lengths behind ROYAL SCOTSMAN in the 1,200m G2 Richmond Stakes at Goodwood. He won a Listed 1,200m event before that encounter, but while he is bound to run well again, there is no real argument why he should turn the tables on the ROYAL SCOTSMAN.
MARSHMAN produced an eye-catching performance on his second start at Thirsk over 1,200m where despite carrying a penalty for his debut victory, he literally annihilated the field. Trained locally by Karl Burke, he might not have the experience some of his opponents gained by running at Group level, but he certainly looked very promising.
This is a big step up in class for CLEARPOINT but he’s been impressive in his two starts so far. He won an Ayr maiden race by over three lengths on debut over 1,200m and then won nicely at Newcastle over 1,000m subsequently. His trainer, Richard Fahey, has described him as a "future star", so he’s clearly very well-regarded and is more than worth his spot in the line-up.
SELECTIONS: 11. NOBLE STYLE, 1. ROYAL SCOTSMAN, 9. MARSHMAN, 3. CHATEAU & 5. CLEARPOINT
S1-4 Nunthorpe Stakes
It’s not very often you get a horse that’s only run three times that starts a short price for a G1 contest but that’s the case with ROYAL ACLAIM and James Tate’s filly looks worthy of her position at the head of the market.
As mentioned, the daughter of ACLAIM has only had three career starts but she’s won all of them impressively over this 1,000m trip, including last time in the Listed City Walls Stakes at this course. She won that contest with ease and while this is a major step up, she’s clearly very talented and gets weight from her older rivals being a 3YO filly.
THE PLATINUM QUEEN receives even more weight as a 2YO filly and Richard Fahey’s contender looks a big danger. She’s won three of her four career starts and looks a very fast horse based on her superb victory at Goodwood last time over 1,000m. Fahey’s runners must always be respected at York, with the only concern around THE PLATINUM QUEEN being the fact she’s never raced on ground slower than good, so if the rain does come there have to be question marks.
Fillies look to hold solid claims in this year’s G1 Nunthorpe Stakes as HIGHFIELD PRINCESS has a strong chance too. She’s always been a good horse, without quite making it to G1 level but she put those claims to bed last time in the G1 Prix Maurice de Gheest where she was impressive in beating a strong field. That’s arguably the strongest piece of form in here and the fact she has a good record at York is another plus too. The slight negative with her is that she drops back in trip and while she didn’t run too badly on her only other start over this 1,000m distance, she might be better over further.
Charlie Hills won this 2019 and 2020 with BATTAASH and he has another good chance with KHAADEM. A gelding operation seems to have worked wonders on 6YO son of DARK ANGEL as he has won both his starts this season. The first of those came in the G3 Palace House Stakes at Newmarket and then he won the G2 King George Stakes at Goodwood that both over 1,000m. Both were really good performances and he comes into this with great confidence.
RAASEL finished second to KHAADEM last time and that was another good performance from the 5YO this season. He’s progressed at a rate of knots this term and has already won the Listed race over 1,000m and a G3 over 1,009m. He might find one or two too good here, though.
SELECTIONS: 14. ROYAL ACLAIM, 15. THE PLATINUM QUEEN, 6. KHAADEM, 11. HIGHFIELD PRINCESS & 8. RAASEL
S1-5 3yo+ Fillies & Mares 0-105 Handicap
SHAMPION looks to have been handed a nice weight for her handicap debut in this 2,061m 3yo+ Fillies & Mares 0-105 Handicap. She’s bred to be smart and she has made a promising start to her career. After finishing fourth on her debut over 1,601m on Lingfield’s polytrack in December, she chased home smart prospect SHAARA over 1,593m at Haydock on her first start for seven months. The step up to 2,000m clearly suited her when she pulled right away to land a Windsor novice race nearly three weeks ago. Roger Varian appears to have a progressive filly on his hands and she is likely to take advantage of her low weight.
STATE OCCASION is developing into a smart filly. She finished an unlucky fourth in the Kensington Palace Stakes over 1,594m at Royal Ascot before returning to 1,979m at Goodwood’s big festival meeting. The longer distance clearly suited her and she had little trouble seeing off a competitive field with an excellent change of pace to record a nice victory. She should continue to progress over this distance.
AMANZOE has been in superb form this year. She has been well placed by her trainer William Haggas to land four races this season and she doesn’t seem to have stopped improving just yet. The strong pace of the 1,993m conditions race at Ascot’s Shergar Cup meeting suited her perfectly and she should get a similar set up in this race.
VIA SISTINA cruised through from the rear to impressively land a hot Newmarket handicap over 2,000m last October when STATE OCCASION was back in third. She hasn’t run since finding all sorts of traffic problems when favourite for a 2,039m Doncaster Listed race in November but her Newmarket win did come following a break.
GOOD AMERICAN is an interesting runner. She looked desperately in need of the run when last of five on her belated return to action over 1,400m at Newmarket (July Course) last month. That run will have knocked the fizz out of her and she is bred to appreciate this 2,061m distance. Her debut win over 1,394m at Salisbury last September gives her claims and, after just three runs, she has the potential to develop into a useful filly.
SELECTIONS: 11. SHAMPION, 2. STATE OCCASION, 5. AMANZOE, 1. VIA SISTINA & 9. GOOD AMERICAN
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (18 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 11. SHAMPION
Selections – 2. STATE OCCASION, 5. AMANZOE, 1. VIA SISTINA & 9. GOOD AMERICAN
S1-6:
Banker – 13. SALT LAKE CITY
Selections – 4. DESERT ORDER, 17. YACOWLEF & 8. LAHAB
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 11. SHAMPION, 2. STATE OCCASION & 5. AMANZOE
S1-6: Multiple – 13. SALT LAKE CITY, 4. DESERT ORDER & 17. YACOWLEF
S1-7: Multiple – 7. OPERATING, 4. GOLDEN VOICE & 1. BAY OF HONOUR
S1-6 2yo Maiden
The 1,400m 2yo Maiden is one of the best maiden races of the season and it is usually won by a future Group horse. Well-bred SALT LAKE CITY could easily be heading that way after a promising debut when runner-up over 1,400m at the Curragh two weeks ago. Aidan O’Brien’s 2YO showed his inexperience throughout that race and he should take a big step forward with the run behind him. His mother, HEARTACHE, won the G2 Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot and he is a son of peerless stallion GALILEO, so he is bred to be top class.
DESERT ORDER has also got two runs in the book. His third behind top prospect EPICTETUS in a 1,400m Newmarket (July Course) maiden was an excellent debut run and he couldn’t have gone much closer to winning when beaten a short head in a 1,600m Sandown maiden on his second start. It’s not hard to imagine him winning Group races later in his career.
YACOWLEF made his debut in a hot 1,394m Salisbury novice won by subsequent G2 Vintage Stakes winner MARBAAN. His third behind MISCHIEF MAGIC in a 1,200m maiden contest at Goodwood last month was an excellent effort in a race packed with subsequent winners. The return to 1,400m is in his favour and he should be competitive in what is sure to be a strong race.
LAHAB made a promising debut when third in a 1,200m novice race at Newbury last month. The form of that race has largely been untested but the fancied horses from top stables came to the fore and it had the feel of a good race. Andrew Balding’s colt didn’t help himself by missing the break and then pulling hard in the early stages. That experience will do him the world of good and he is bred to appreciate the step up to 1,400m.
SELECTIONS: 13. SALT LAKE CITY, 4. DESERT ORDER, 17. YACOWLEF & 8. LAHAB
S1-7 3yo 0-105 Handicap
The combination of John & Thady Gosden and Ryan Moore riding in the Coolmore colours were successful in this race 12 months ago and they look to have good prospects once again with OPERATING. This son of WAR FRONT showed definite promise when making his seasonal reappearance in a novice at Doncaster over 1,600m and then followed that up with a maiden win at Windsor over 1,628m. His opening handicap mark clearly underestimated him, as he only had to be pushed out when winning with plenty in hand at Nottingham over 1,668m last time. The form of that race looks sound, with the second and third performing with credit in strong handicaps since, and OPERATING could still be well ahead of his mark.
GOLDEN VOICE has been a model of consistency in all his five runs this season, winning three times and finishing as runner-up on the other two occasions. All but one of those performances have come over 1,400m, but he went down by only a head over this course and distance in May. Last time out at Redcar he was forced to come from off a slow gallop in a small field, which didn’t suit. This step back up to 1,582m and a likely stronger gallop should see him run well again.
Godolphin run two here and the pick of William Buick, BAY OF HONOUR, looks most interesting after running well in two handicaps to date. Most recently, he won by four lengths in a small field event at Newmarket (July Course) over 1,600m, making all and stamping his authority over his rivals. Whether he was flattered remains to be seen and it will be far harder to dictate in this bigger field, but if taking that run at face value he looks sure to be involved again.
SYSTEM is much more exposed than many in this field after 11 starts, but arguably posted a career best last time out when winning at Doncaster over 1,600m. Richard Hannon’s filly made smooth progress from the rear of the field that day and looks value for a small rise in the weights, with a similar big field scenario expected to suit her again.
Another with form that brings him into the equation is BOLTHOLE, who didn’t see out the 1,810m trip when fading into third at Goodwood last time. A return to 1,582m coupled with a first-time tongue tie could bring about improvement and he completes the shortlist.
SELECTIONS: 7. OPERATING, 4. GOLDEN VOICE, 1. BAY OF HONOUR, 10. SYSTEM & 6. BOLTHOLE
Disclaimer:
The above content and information are the personal views and/or opinions of each individual writer and do not represent the views of The Hong Kong Jockey Club and/or its subsidiaries (together, the "HKJC"). The content and information are provided by the writers solely for entertainment purpose only, and should not be construed as a suggestion for anyone to place any bet nor should they be taken and/or relied upon as advice of any kind. The above content and information have not been verified, confirmed and/or endorsed by HKJC and HKJC shall not be liable to any person for any loss or damage suffered by such person as a result of any use or reliance of the above content or information.
HKJC shall not be required to give and does not give any warranty, whether express or implied, arising out of or in connection with the content or information. The Club disclaims any responsibility and accepts no liability (whether in tort, contract or otherwise) for any direct or indirect loss of damage arising from any inaccuracies, omission or typographical errors that may be contained therein. The Club also does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for purpose of any such information.
