 Expert - Naohiro Goda | |
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| Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin. | |
Expert Column for Sprinters Stakes Day (S1) (Naohiro Goda)
S1-1 3yo and up 1 win
My favourite is American-bred DUAL CAREER, trained by Shizuya Kato. The 6YO horse by WAR FRONT finished second in the allowance race for one time winners over the same course and distance as this race on 11th September. He hit the front soon after the break and covered the first 600m for 33.2 seconds, which is quick. He still fought well at crucial stage of race and was beaten only by head. It is obvious that blinker which was put on him for the first time worked very well. Although there is a couple of speed horses in the field. DUAL CAREER has been trained well since last start and I think he has very good chance to graduate this class on Sunday.
My second choice is KOYU MAMA NI NITE, 3YO filly by MONTEROSSO. She finished third in the allowance race for one time winners over the same course and distance as this race on0 10th September and I judge it was a good effort, as it was only second start for her at this class. While her body weight on 10th September was 22lbs heavier than the previous start, she has been training very well since last start and she looks sharper now. I believe she will run better on Sunday than last start and has a good chance to finish within first two.
ILSA, who finished third in the allowance race over the same course and distance as this race on 17th September, is my third choice. She tracked leaders from fifth position smoothly in the allowance race on 17th September and I feel she is improving now. And she won a maiden over the same course and distance as this race. I believe she likes Nakayama.
While WORLD CONNECTOR won a maiden over 1,600m on turf last October and has never run the race over 1,200m on dirt, his pedigree suggests this is suitable distance and surface. WORLD CONNECTOR is my fourth choice.
My fifth choice is GOSHAWK CREST. While his recent form looks poor, he finished within 0.3 seconds from the winner when he was beaten seventh in the allowance race at Kokura in January. And he acts better on dirt than on turf. I assess he has the ability to finish within the first five here.
SELECTIONS: 3. DUAL CAREER, 4. KOYU MAMA NI NITE, 6. ILSA, 9. WORLD CONNECTOR & 1. GOSHAWK CREST
S1-2 3yo and up 1 win
My favourite is WARP SPEED, 3YO colt trained by Noboru Takagi. WARP SPEED won a novice by 3.5 lengths and collected his first win at Tokyo on 24th April. While it was his eighth start, the performance was very impressive. Although this is the first start since then, his track work on Wednesday morning at Miho Training Centre was fantastic and I feel WARP SPEED has improved significantly during summer. I believe he has a bright future.
My second choice is MEINER MESSIAH, 3YO colt by GOLD SHIP, who is one of the most consistent runners in the field. He finished second in Novice over the same course and distance as this race on 6th March and the winner was BATTLE BORN who is now a performer at the class for three time winners. I understand this is the most suitable course and distance for MEINER MESSIAH.
My third choice is FANTASIA, well-bred 3YO filly by HARBINGER. She made successful racecourse debut on 20th September 2021, when she won a maiden over 2,000m turf course at Nakayama, and it looks she would have very bright future. However, she sidelined for nearly ten months since then, due to having a series of training setback. She ran twice at Hakodate in July and finished third and sixth. I judge tight track at Hakodate did not suit her. FANTASIA has been working beautifully in the morning recently and I am sure she is ready to run her race on Sunday.
LYRIDS, another well-bred 3YO in the field is my fourth choice. He finished fifth in the allowance race for one time winners at Fukushima on 16th July and I think it was not a bad performance, as it was the first start at this class for LYRIDS and soft ground did not help him. I have a feeling that Nakayama suits him better than Fukushima. Although this is first start for him since 16th July, I have been paying attention on him in the morning at Miho Training Centre and I judge he is ready to run his race on Sunday.
WIN MY ROUTE, who finished third in in the allowance race for one time winners over the same course and distance as this race in February, is my fifth choice. LORD LES AILES, the winner of that race, finished second in G2 Aoba Sho subsequently, therefore, his form should be regarded highly. Although this is the first start since then for WIN MY ROUTE, he has been trained well at Miho Training Centre and I believe he should finish within the first five here.
SELECTIONS: 8. WARP SPEED, 9. MEINER MESSIAH, 6. FANTASIA, 11. LYRIDS & 12. WIN MY ROUTE
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 8. WARP SPEED
Selections – 9. MEINER MESSIAH, 6. FANTASIA, 11. LYRIDS & 12. WIN MY ROUTE
S1-3:
Banker – 2. GAL VIHARA
Selections – 9. WARLORD, 5. HEKIKU, 13. PIONONO & 8. LORD VALENTI
S1-3 3yo and up 2 wins
My favourite is GAL VIHARA, 6YO horse trained by Kiyoshi Hagiwara. He finished third in Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun, which is domestic G1 at Kawasaki Racecourse of NAR, when he was 2YO. It is a sort of Championship race for 2YOs at dirt division and GAL VIHARA was regarded as one of leading contenders for Japan Dirt Derby. However, GAL VIHARA is not a sound horse, did not run at all when he was 3YO, ran only twice when he was 4YO, and ran only twice again when he was 5YO. He finished third in the allowance race for two time winners at Fukushima on 16th July and I have an impression from this performance that he is still keeping his spirit to run.
WARLORD, one of the most consistent runners in the field, is my second choice. The 4YO colt by VINCENNES, finished second in allowance race for two time winners at Niigata on 15th May and finished third in another allowance race for two time winners at Nakayama on 17th September. As he re-produces those form on Sunday, WARLORD should run well and finish within the first two.
My third choice is HEKIKU, 3YO colt trained by Nobuhiro Suzuki. While he is by LOVELY DAY, winner of G1 Tenno Sho Autumn and G1 Takarazuka Kinen, HEKIKU has been acting well on dirt. I think he was under much stronger influence from his dam, who is by SCAT DADDY. He won the allowance race for one time winners over the same course and distance as this race on 10th September by five lengths, and I have a feeling from this performance that HEKIKU is good enough to compete against two time winners.
PIONONO, who finished second in Chibatele Hai, allowance race for two time winners over the same course and distance in 2020 and 2021, is my fourth choice. TOMOJA LIA and PUERTA DEL SOL, third and fifth finisher in Chibatele Hai in 2021, graduated the class for two time winners subsequently and I am sure PIONONO should have an ability to graduate this class. While this is first start for him since December 2021, he has been trained well in the morning at Miho Training Centre and I believe he can run his race on Sunday.
LORD VALENTI who started twice at Nakayama and finished within the first two at both occasions, is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 2. GAL VIHARA, 9. WARLORD, 5. HEKIKU, 13. PIONONO & 8. LORD VALENTI
S1-4 Saffron Sho
Saffron Sho is the stakes race for one time winning 2YO fillies over 1,600m turf course. SATONO REINAS, winner of Saffron Sho in 2020, finished second in G1 Hanshin Juvenile Fillies and G1 Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) subsequently. WATER NAVILLERA, winner of Saffron Sho in 2021, finished third in G1 Hanshin Juvenile Fillies and second in G1 Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) subsequently. The winner of Saffron Sho should have the quality to compete well in major races for fillies later the year and next spring.
My favourite is SANTEE TESORO trained by Toru Kuirta. The filly by EPIPHANEIA made her debut in newcomer race at Fukushima on 17th July and finished third to MASCULINE. That was not a bad performance, but I am more impressed by her next start, the 2yo maiden at Nakayama on 10th September. SANTEE TESORO was sent to the front from her inside draw by Kazuo Yokoyama and made a clear lead easily. And she made all by five lengths, covering final 600m for 34.6 seconds, which was the fastest among the 14 runners. And the winning time 1 minute 34.3 seconds. The winning time of Aster Sho, stakes race for one time winning 2YOs over the same course and distance as SANTEE TESORO’s novice on the same day, was 1 minute and 35.8 seconds, which was 1.6 seconds slower than SANTEE TESORO’s novice. I believe SANTEE TESORO has a class and is still improving. She should be competitive in major races for fillies later the year and next spring.
My second choice is MASCULINE, winner of a maiden at Fukushima on 17th July, when SANTEE TESORO was third. MASCULINE was very green, as much as SANTEE TESORO, and it was obvious that the filly by ONE AND ONLY did not concentrate to run. But she learnt quickly and understood what she should do during the race. She covered the final 600m for 36.1 seconds to win by 1.3 lengths. I have a feeling that track at Nakayama suits better for MASCULINE than Fukushima.
FINGER CLICK, who won a maiden at Niigata on 7th August, is my third choice. It was the second start for the filly by MIND YOUR BISCUITS and I found a big improvement since her first start eight weeks ago. And I feel she has a lot of room to improve.
It was a kind of surprise to see Inao Okada selected the maiden over 1,500m turf course at Sapporo on 3rd September as the first start for SARASA HOW PRETTY, as she is by DREFONG, US Champion Sprinter who won three G1s on dirt, and her dam, HAYABUSA EMINENCE, won two races on dirt when she was in training. It is obvious that her pedigree suggests SARASA HOW PRETTY is a dirt horse. However, in the end, Inao Okada was correct and SARASA HOW PRETTY won the turf maiden. As she re-produces the form on Sunday, she should have chance to finish the first four here.
SILVER GHOST, who finished second in the allowance race for one time winners over the same course and distance on 10th September, is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 4. SANTEE TESORO, 1. MASCULINE, 6. FINGER CLICK, 3. SARASA HOW PRETTY & 5. SILVER GHOST
S1-5 Ibaraki Shimbun Hai
Ibaraki Shimbun Hai is the stakes race for two times winning 3YO and upper over 1,800m turf course. This stakes race was won by 3YO in 2020 and 2021, and I understand there are some attractive fresh power in this year’s field of Ibaraki Shimbun Hai.
My favourite is RED LAMMERT, 3YO colt by DEEP IMPACT. After finishing second in three consecutive races, RED LAMMERT won the allowance race for one time winners at Sapporo on 27th August. He tracked leaders and draw clear on homestretch to win by three lengths. He covered the final 600m for 36.1 seconds, which was the quickest among the 14 runners, and winning time was 1 minute and 48.4 seconds. There was a stakes race for two time winners over the same course and distance as RED LAMMERT’s allowance race on the following day and the winning time of the stakes race was 1 minute and 49.2 seconds. It means RED LAMMERT’s allowance race was 0.8 seconds quicker. I am pretty sure RED LAMMERT is competitive at the class for two time winners. RED LAMMERT has been trained at Miho Training Centre since last start and I believe he is kept in the top form.
My second choice is GO GO YUTAKA, another 3YO colt in the field. The connections of GO GO YUTAKA regards the colt by RULERSHIP highly from day one. After missing G1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) and G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby), first and second leg of Triple Crown, Ryo Takei sent him in G3 Radio Nikkei Sho at Fukushima on 3rd July. He finished fifth there and I judge it was a good effort, as he jumped from the widest draw, which is disadvantage at tight track at Fukushima. And GO GO YUTAKA finished third in the allowance race at Nakayama on 11th September, and I feel he has a good chance to finish within the first two here as he re-produces his form of that race on Sunday. Nakayama is his favourite track, as he started there for five times, won two of them, finished second twice and third once.
One of the most consistent runners in the field is MYTHOLOGIE, who finished second in the allowance race for two time winners at Tokyo on 26th June and finished second again in another allowance race for two time winners at Nakayama on 11th September. Nakayama is his favourite track, where he started seven times and finished within the first two in five races. MYTHOLOGIE is my third choice.
POD WEIN, another 3YO colt in the field, is my fourth choice. POD WEIN finished fourth in the allowance race for one time winners at Tokyo on 28th May and third in another allowance race for one time winners at Tokyo on 18th June, both are over 2,400m. Jiro Ono, who trains POD WEIN, decided to change tactics and sent POD WEIN to race over 1,800m at Sapporo on 4th September. It worked well and POD WEIN won the allowance race and graduated the class for one time winners. It is obvious that 1,800m is more suitable for POD WEIN and I believe he is capable to finish within the first four here.
COOL WATER, who finished second in her last start at Fukushima on 3rd July, is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 2. RED LAMMERT, 12. GO GO YUTAKA, 5. MYTHOLOGIE, 3. POD WEIN & 6. COOL WATER
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 2. RED LAMMERT
Selections – 12. GO GO YUTAKA, 5. MYTHOLOGIE, 3. POD WEIN & 6. COOL WATER
S1-6:
Banker – 13. MEIKEI YELL
Selections – 9. NAMURA CLAIR, 6. NARAN HULEG, 10. TAISEI VISION & 15. SCHNELL MEISTER
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 2. RED LAMMERT, 12. GO GO YUTAKA & 5. MYTHOLOGIE
S1-6: Multiple – 13. MEIKEI YELL, 9. NAMURA CLAIR & 6. NARAN HULEG
S1-7: Multiple – 6. ERIMO GLITTER, 1. WALTZ FOR RUN & 7. JASPER GOLD
S1-6 Sprinters Stakes
Female sprinters have been running well against male sprinters in G1 Sprinters Stakes, as 8 out of 20 first and second finishers in the last ten running of Sprinters Stakes are fillies and mares. I make much account of female sprinters, as this year’s field includes some attractive fillies and mares.
MEIKEI YELL has been furiously fast from day one. She won three consecutive races since her debut, including G3 Fantasy Stakes at Hanshin on 7th November 2020, when she covered 1 minute 20.1 seconds for 1,400m, which was the fastest record established by 2YOs. On the other hand, her mentality was very immature simultaneously. She ran as she wanted to run and hated the jockeys who tried to control her. She often became uncontrollable in races and well beaten in some starts last spring and last autumn. Patient approach by staff at Hidenori Take’s stable has taken effect and the 4YO filly by MIKKI ISLE understands now how she should behave during races. Her first start at this autumn campaign was G2 Centaur Stakes at Chukyo on 11th September. She was settled well at fifth position and drew clear on homestretch to win by 2.5 lengths. The winning time, 1 minute and 6.2 seconds was track record at 1,200m course at Chukyo, MEIKEI YELL, who is now very fast and well matured mentally, is my favourite in Sprinters Stakes.
My second choice is NAMURA CLAIR, 3YO filly by MIKKI ISLE, the same sire as MEIKEI YELL. After finishing third in G1 Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas), first leg of Triple Tiara for 3YO fillies over 1,600m, the connections decided to change route and NAMURA CLAIR won the G3 Hakodate Sprint Stakes on 12th June over 1,200m impressively. While she was beaten third in G3 Kitakyushu Kinen at Kokura on 21st August, she met with a serious traffic problem at the top of homestretch and I judge she was an unlucky loser there. And she is still improving.
NARAN HULEG, winner of G1 Takamatsunomiya Kinen at Chukyo on 27th March is my third choice. While he was beaten ninth in G1 Yasuda Kinen at Tokyo on 5th June, 1,600m was too far for the 6YO horse by GOLD ALLURE. Although he has not run since then, he is trained well at Miho Training Centre and I believe he is ready to run his race on Sunday.
TAISEI VISION finished second in the last three starts, including the Listed Shunrai Stakes over the same course and distance as Sprinters Stakes. He is one of the most consistent runners in this field and TAISEI VISION is my fourth choice.
To be frankly, it is perplexing how to access SCHNELL MEISTER. He is a very good horse, as he won G1 NHK Mile Cup and finished second in both G1 Yasuda Kinen and G1 Mile Championship. However, I don’t know how good he is over 1,200m. I can neither regard him highly nor ignore him in Sprinters Stakes.
SELECTIONS: 13. MEIKEI YELL, 9. NAMURA CLAIR, 6. NARAN HULEG, 10. TAISEI VISION & 15. SCHNELL MEISTER
S1-7 Sotobo Stakes
Sotobo Stakes for three-time winning 3YO and upper is conducted over 1,200m dirt course.
My favourite is ERIMO GLITTER, who won the allowance race over the same course and distance as this race on 18th September and has just graduated the class for two-time winners. ERIMO GLITTER finished second in the allowance race for two-time winners at Niigata on 27th August, and I regard this form highly, because MESMERISER, winner of that race finished second in allowance race for three time winners at Nakayama on 17th September. As we use MESMERISER as a yardstick, I believe ERIMO GLITTER is competitive at the class for three time winners. And it is one of the encouraging factors that Hiroyuki Uchida is booked for ERIMO GLITTER in Sotobo Stakes. Uchida has ridden ERIMO GLITTER for eight times, won three of them, and finished second for four times.
One of the most consistent runners in the field of WALTZ FOR RUN, who has run at this class for five times and finished within first five in all five starts. One of them is the allowance race for three time winners over the same course and distance as this race in December 2021 and WALTZ FOR RUN finished second beaten only by head. His time in that race, 1 minute and 10.6 seconds, is faster than standard. And WALTZ FOR RUN finished fourth in the allowance race for the same class at Chukyo on 22nd May, and winner IBARU finished fourth in NST Sho for Graded stakes performers subsequently. I believe WALTZ FOR RUN has an ability to graduate the class for three time winners. While he has not run since May, he is trained well at Miho Training Centre and I believe he is ready to run his race on Sunday.
JASPER GOLD, who finished third in the allowance race for three time winners at Kokura on 27th August and finished third again in another allowance race for three time winners at Chukyo on 11th September, is my third choice.
VAGABOND won the allowance race for two time winners at Niigata on 31st July and I regard this form highly, because it was the first start for the colt by DISCREET CAT since 20th November 2021 and he was still able to win by three lengths. Although he has never run at Nakayama, he won two races at Hanshin, clockwise track which is similar to Nakayama, and believe he can handle the track at Nakayama.
BABY BOSS, who finished second in the allowance race for three time winners over the same course and distance as this race in March, is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 6. ERIMO GLITTER, 1. WALTZ FOR RUN, 7. JASPER GOLD, 8. VAGABOND & 15. BABY BOSS
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