 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe Day (S2) (Bill Esdaile)
S2-1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
Proven stamina is a must for Europe’s most prestigious championship race, and persistent rain all week means that, despite using fresh ground, testing conditions will not be dissimilar to the last three years.
One guaranteed stayer is German champion TORQUATOR TASSO, who relished the mudbath when landing a shock victory over 2,400m 12 months ago. TORQUATOR TASSO is as hard as nails and did not break sweat when winning a G2 Grosser Hansa-Preis over 2,400m in July. He was then runner-up on unsuitably fast ground in the G1 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes over 2,392m at Ascot. Frankie Dettori, who has captured this prize a record six times, was then called into action at G1 Grosser Preis von Baden over 2,400m, where TORQUATOR TASSO did well to be beaten only a head off a farcical early pace. The fact that the Italian was keen to ride again is significant.
However, 3YOs receive a generous weight allowance from their elders, and Aidan O’Brien has always thought the world of one-time Derby Stakes favourite LUXEMBOURG. But for being brought to his knees in some scrimmaging leaving the stalls, LUXEMBOURG, unbeaten at two, might well have won the G1 2000 Guineas over 1,600m instead of being a fast-closing third. On the injured list for several weeks, LUXEMBOURG then suffered muscle problems behind which caused him to miss Epsom. He was only just ready for his comeback over 2,000m at The Curragh, in which he got the job done but was only workmanlike. But it was the “real” LUXEMBOURG who then turned up for the Irish Champion Stakes over 2,000m at Leopardstown, in which five of his six opponents were G1 winners. LUXEMBOURG had to dig deep to shake off the 2,400m G1 Grand Prix de Paris hero ONESTO, but connections feel that he’ll be even better over this longer trip.
ONESTO looks sure to be in the mix again. He caught the eye when fifth in the Prix du Jockey Club over 2,100m at Chantilly, where he looked to be crying out for a return to this trip.
No 5YO mare has won since CORRIDA in 1937, but then again the much-travelled ALPINISTA is no ordinary racehorse. She is 7-7 in the last two seasons. ALPINISTA’s form is top-class. She goes into battle fresh having had just the two runs this year, and she looked better than ever when putting Oaks heroine TUESDAY to the sword in the Yorkshire Oaks over 2,371m in August.
A lively outsider could be AL HAKEEM. He was drawn out wide when only fourth in the 2,100m G1 Prix du Jockey Club, but he then made no mistake when dropped down a grade at Deauville over 2,000m. This extra distance will suit him.
SELECTIONS: 20. LUXEMBOURG, 2. TORQUATOR TASSO, 14. ALPINISTA, 16. AL HAKEEM & 17. ONESTO
S2-2 Prix de l'Opera
NASHWA has been the star filly in Britain this summer and she looks the one to beat in the G1 Prix de l’Opera. This 2,000m distance is perfect for John and Thady Gosden’s filly.
After finishing third behind TUESDAY in the G1 Oaks over 2,405m at Epsom in June, she landed the French version of the G1 Prix de Diane over 2,100m with a narrow defeat of LA PARISIENNE over 2,100m at Chantilly. She backed up that victory with a smooth win in the G1 Nassau Stakes over 1,979m at Goodwood in July and she has enjoyed a nice break since. This will be the softest ground she will have raced on but this daughter of FRANKEL is bred to appreciate the testing conditions.
ABOVE THE CURVE is a progressive 3YO filly. She allowed THOUGHTS OF JUNE to get first run on her when she went down by a neck in the Listed Cheshire Oaks over 2,268m in May. Her defeat of PLACE DU CARROUSEL in the G1 Prix Saint-Alary over 2,000m at ParisLongchamp three weeks later is a much better reflection of her ability. She returned from a mid-season break to land the G2 Blandford Stakes over 2,000m at the Curragh with a battling defeat of INSINUENDO. There’s every chance that effort will have put her spot on for this race.
LA PARISIENNE hasn’t won since making a successful return to action over 2,100m at Saint-Cloud in April. That shouldn’t count against her as she has shown she is up to the top level in her last two races. She ran NASHWA to a shorthead in the G1 Prix de Diane over 2,100m at Chantilly in June before finishing an unlucky third behind SWEET LADY in the G1 Prix Vermeille over 2,400m at ParisLongchamp last month. The testing ground will help her chances.
TUESDAY was a little fortunate to land the G1 Oaks over 2,405m at Epsom in June and she’s been beaten in three subsequent runs. Her second behind the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe hope ALPINISTA in the G1 Yorkshire Oaks over 2,371m was a sound effort and she was poorly positioned when fourth in the G1 Prix Vermeille over 2,400m at ParisLongchamp. The drop in distance is not ideal.
MY ASTRA ran a personal best last time out when second behind LA PETITE COCO in the G1 Pretty Polly Stakes over 2,000m at the Curragh despite attempting to come from further back than ideal. She loves soft ground.
SELECTIONS: 7. NASHWA, 12. ABOVE THE CURVE, 9. LA PARISIENNE, 13. TUESDAY & 5. MY ASTRA
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-2:
Banker – 7. NASHWA
Selections – 12. ABOVE THE CURVE, 9. LA PARISIENNE, 13. TUESDAY & 5. MY ASTRA
S2-3:
Banker – 5. COEUR DE PIERRE
Selections – 19. THE PLATINUM QUEEN, 17. FLOTUS, 15. TERESA MENDOZA & 7. BERNEUIL
S2-3 Prix de l'Abbaye de Longchamp
The 1,000m G1 Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp is over in a flash and getting a sound start from a handy draw can be all important.
Low stalls have a markedly better record in the race, and COEUR DE PIERRE looks to have every chance breaking from eight. He’s had just the two starts so far this season, so arrives here nice and fresh, and off the back of two good runs. He opened his seasonal campaign with a fairly comfortable win in the Listed 1,000m Prix du Cercle at Deauville, and he ran well again to finish second in the G3 Prix du Petit Couvert over this course and distance. He couldn’t get passed BERNEUIL that day, but rallied well in the closing stages to draw nearer and it looked as though he had a bit more in the tank. This will be just his third start of the season and he should be reaching peak fitness.
THE PLATINUM QUEEN bids to become the first 2YO winner of this race in over 40 years, and fully deserves her place in the field after a scintillating season. She’s three wins and two seconds from six starts, all over this 1,000m trip, in her maiden season, and though she’s yet to win outside of juvenile company, she gave prolific G1 winner HIGHFIELD PRINCESS a run for her money in the G1 1,000m Nunthorpe Stakes at York two starts ago. That race proved she has what it takes to mix it with the older sprinters, while she’s open to further improvement as a 2YO approaching the autumn.
FLOTUS has been consistent at the top level this season and looks set to run another big race. Asides from finishing down the field in G1 Nunthorpe Stakes over 1,000m, where she got badly worked up before the race and was slowly into stride when the gates opened, she’s been in good form. She bounced back with a good third in the 1,000m G1 Flying Five Stakes at the Curragh, and a reproduction of that effort would see her go close.
5YO BERNEUIL finished stone last in this 12 months ago, ruining his chances by blowing the start and he was never able to recover. He’s a tough horse to pass if he gets a lead early on, as shown by is gate to wire success in the G3 1,000m Prix du Petit Couvert last time out, so it could be crucial for him to get a fast start, which won’t be easy from stall 18.
TERESA MENDOZA, beaten just a neck in the G3 1,031m Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes at Newbury last time out, could run another big race. Though most of her running as come over 1,200m, she showed the necessary speed to be dangerous over this 1,000m trip on that most recent start and has every chance from her low draw. Six of the last ten winners have come from stall seven or lower, so her berth in stall five looks ideal.
SELECTIONS: 5. COEUR DE PIERRE, 19. THE PLATINUM QUEEN, 17. FLOTUS, 15. TERESA MENDOZA & 7. BERNEUIL
S2-4 Prix de la Foret
British-trained horses have dominated the G1 Prix de la Foret 1,400m in recent years winning seven of the last eight runnings.
The British challenge this year is headed by KINROSS and he looks sure to go well. Ralph Beckett’s 5YO has developed into a 1,400m specialist and has won his last two over the distance. He won the G2 City Of York Stakes and then got the job done nicely in the G2 Park Stakes at Doncaster last time. He was fourth in this race last year and can be expected to go even better 12 months later.
KINROSS finished behind SANDRINE in the G2 Lennox Stakes over 1,400m at Goodwood and Andrew Balding’s filly looks another solid contender. Big things were expected when she won the G2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes over 1,200m last season, but she didn’t quite go on as hoped. However, she’s begun to pick her up form in recent outings and is a solid contender, although she was soundly beaten by KINROSS when they last met at York.
This is one race that has so far evaded Aidan O’Brien and he looks to TENEBRISM to change that. The daughter of CARAVAGGIO is a two-time G1 winner having taken the Cheveley Park Stakes over 1,200m last season and the Prix Jean Prat over 1,400m this term. She’s been largely campaigned over 1,600m this year, but this trip looks more her bag, and she is certainly of interest.
The home challenge is headed by Francis-Henri Graffard’s MALAVATH. The 3YO is another who looks sure to go better back over this 1,400m trip having run over 1,600m in the G1 Prix Rothschild last time. She won the G3 Prix Imprudence over 1,400m at the start of the season and a repeat performance would see her involved.
The placings can be completed by the Japanese raider ENTSCHEIDEN. He ran a mighty race to be third in this contest last year and although he hasn’t been quite as good since, he did win a decent race at Chukyo in May this year over 1,400m. His trainer Yoshito Yahagi must have had this race in mind for quite some time and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if he were to outrun his odds.
SELECTIONS: 1. KINROSS, 10. TENEBRISM, 8. SANDRINE, 6. MALAVATH & 3. ENTSCHEIDEN
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-4:
Banker – 1. KINROSS
Selections – 10. TENEBRISM, 8. SANDRINE, 6. MALAVATH & 3. ENTSCHEIDEN
S2-5:
Banker – 7. KILOECHO
Selections – 5. KING GOLD, 1. AMEDRAS, 6. BAILEYS BLUES & 15. LILY ROSE
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-4: Multiple – 1. KINROSS, 10. TENEBRISM & 8. SANDRINE
S2-5: Multiple – 7. KILOECHO, 5. KING GOLD & 1. AMEDRAS
S2-6: Multiple – 18. GAIDAR, 1. INVINCIBLE LIGHT & 12. BEMER
S2-5 Class 1 Handicap
In this very open handicap over 1,300m it pays to look for horses that can handle soft ground and as such KILOECHO could be the one they will have to beat. A winner of two majors handicaps over 1,200m at Deauville last summer, he was severely penalised by the handicapper and left with no option but to step up to Group level, which ultimately didn’t work out. This season, his weight has come down again and he produced a good performance when he finished fourth in the Grand Handicap de Deauville over 1,600m in August. Coming off a break, he is fresh and as a son of WHIPPER, will be glad for this drop back in trip.
Unlike KILOECHO, who has only had three runs this season, KING GOLD has been on the go for the whole year, with only a short break in the spring. He started in Cagnes-Sur-Mer and in the summer travelled to Germany where he surprised everyone when he finished second in the G3 Grosser Preis Von Lotto Hamburg over 1,200m. His last start was on Arc Trial day at ParisLongchamp over a similar trip, where he showed a lot of tenacity to finish third. A son of ANODIN, he too will appreciate soft ground and with Christophe Soumillon booked to take the ride, he comes here with great expectations.
AMEDRAS came to everyone’s attention in February when he won a major handicap at Cagnes-Sur-Mer over 1,500m. Following that gutsy victory, he added two further races to his name over 1,400m and 1,700m before venturing ambitiously into the G3 Prix de la Porte Maillot over 1,400m. Against the improving AMILCAR and G1 winner MARIANAFOOT, this proved a step too far, but he did finish third in a Listed over 1,600m and deserves to be respected in this handicap.
BAILEYS BLUES started his career in England before turning into a consistent handicapper in France. He won a major handicap over 1,200m at Chantilly on very soft ground last year and produced his best performance this season when he finished third in a 1,200m sprint at Baden-Baden in Germany. This 1,300m distance is probably his limit.
The 3YO LILY ROSE is making an ambitious appearance against the older generation in this race. Trained by Mathieu Brasme, she has been very consistent in her races this season, but has to make the most of her lower handicap mark to make an impression here. Her strength is that she is a very strong finisher who loves soft ground.
SELECTIONS: 7. KILOECHO, 5. KING GOLD, 1. AMEDRAS, 6. BAILEYS BLUES & 15. LILY ROSE
S2-6 Class 1 Handicap
Andre Fabre has won the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe more often than any other trainer in history and, while a ninth victory in ParisLongchamp’s great race looks unlikely, he has an excellent chance in the closing 2,000m handicap. His GAIDAR ran smart TRES QUEEN to a head on his handicap debut over 1,900m at ParisLongchamp just over two weeks ago. There was a lot to like about his finishing effort in that contest so it was a decent effort on just his fourth race. This progressive grey had shown a nice change of pace to make a winning debut over 1,900m on Chantilly’s polytrack in February and he looks to have stacks of improvement left in him. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him contesting much better races in the future.
INVINCIBLE LIGHT came from off the pace to land a big-field handicap over 2,000m at ParisLongchamp a couple of weeks ago. His previous two wins had come over shorter so that victory confirmed he stays this distance and it showed he has a liking for this track. That race did set up for his hold up style but it could be a similar story in this contest.
BEMER finished third behind smart prospect TRES QUEEN and GAIDAR over 1,900m at ParisLongchamp just over two weeks ago. He had earlier held off ANOBE to win over 2,000m at Lion D’Angers when the front pair were well clear of the rest. This German raider seems a very straightforward ride so his jockey should be able to slot him into a nice position in the early stages.
WISHUPONASTAR hasn’t stood much racing in recent years but he returned from 17 months off the track with a victory over 1,800m at Croise-Laroche a month ago. The form of that frontrunning win is nothing special but he was well on top at the line. He should improve for that comeback run.
HAVE DANCER sat too close the pace before fading into seventh behind INVINCIBLE LIGHT over 2,000m at ParisLongchamp. He hit the front early in the straight but the race suited horses ridden more patiently and he was swamped in the closing stages. He had earlier shown a great attitude when making all the running to record his third career victory over 2,000m at Deauville when BAIKAL was back in third and OUT OF TIME only fifth.
SELECTIONS: 18. GAIDAR, 1. INVINCIBLE LIGHT, 12. BEMER, 4. WISHUPONASTAR & 5. HAVE DANCER
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