 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for British Champions Day (S2) (Bill Esdaile)
S2-1 British Champions Long Distance Cup
Given he has won the G2 Long Distance Cup over 3,190m for the past two years, TRUESHAN looks an obvious place to start when trying to find the winner of the 2022 renewal. Alan King’s stayer hasn’t quite been at his best in recent outings, particularly in the G2 Doncaster Cup over 3,579m where he ran well below bar despite being sent off a short-priced favourite. He’ll need to step up from that here, but he has a fine record in the race, and any rain that falls will only enhance his chances.
The chief threat might come from Roger Varian’s ELDAR ELDAROV who looks well worth a go at this distance after his win in the G1 St Leger Stakes over 2,905m last time. He won the G2 Queen’s Vase over 2,831m two starts prior to that and his trainer has often stated that he’s a horse that will excel over longer distances, so the son of DUBAWI is greatly respected.
Aidan O’Brien has won this race in two of the last five years with ORDER OF ST GEORGE and KEW GARDENS and he saddles WATERVILLE this time around. Interestingly, the son of CAMELOT is yet to run in a Group race meaning this is a major step up in class compared to his previous outings. However, he’s a horse that looks on the upgrade, particularly over staying trips. He won a Limerick handicap over 3,400m by six lengths and then needed all of the 3,313m trip to just get home in front in a handicap at the Curragh. Like ELDAR ELDAROV he gets weight from his rivals for being a 3YO and WATERVILLE is clearly well-regarded given he’s being tried in this company after only winning a handicap last time.
COLTRANE finished ahead of TRUESHAN in the aforementioned Doncaster Cup last time and he has to be considered on the back of that. He won the 3,991m Ascot Stakes at this track earlier in the year so clearly likes it here, though TRUESHAN wasn’t at his best at Doncaster, and it would require a career best from COLTRANE to win this.
QUICKTHORN has enjoyed a fine season, winning three times. He beat COLTRANE by 14 lengths in the G2 Lonsdale Cup over 3,251m although he was disappointing in the G1 Prix du Cadran over 4,000m last time. If you can forgive him that run, Hughie Morrison’s gelding has shown this season he has the ability to go well here.
SELECTIONS: 7. ELDAR ELDAROV, 5. TRUESHAN, 8. WATERVILLE, 1. COLTRANE & 2. QUICKTHORN
S2-2 British Champions Sprint Stakes
Last year’s winner CREATIVE FORCE is bidding to make it back-to-back victories in this G1 sprint prize over 1,200m and looks to hold strong claims for Charlie Appleby and William Buick. He has been lightly raced this season, running only twice, when going down by a neck in the G1 Platinum Jubilee Stakes over 1,200m at Royal Ascot and then when finishing fourth in the G1 July Cup Stakes over the same distance in the following month. On both those occasions he finished in front of several of the rivals he faces here, and, with soft ground conditions likely to bring out a better performance from this son of DUBAWI, he looks the one to beat. While his draw in stall 13 could have been kinder, he’s close to many of the other fancied runners and that should remove any potential bias towards the lower draws.
Another horse who will thrive in the likely conditions is Ralph Beckett’s KINROSS. An impressive winner of the G1 Prix de la Foret over 1,400m at the beginning of the month, he has mainly been campaigned over 1,400m and has made only a handful of starts over this trip. One of those came this summer when finishing eighth of 24 behind CREATIVE FORCE who placed second at Royal Ascot, which was a good effort considering the ground was firmer than ideal for him. A softer surface should bring his stamina into play, especially with the uphill Ascot finish, and he should be seen finishing strongly.
Things haven’t gone CASTLE STAR’s way in two runs over 1,000m this season, but he’s one who could be primed for a big run on his return to this trip. He could never get into the race last time in the G1 Flying Five Stakes at the Curragh and should find this race sets up better for him, as he likes to close late in his races.
BRAD THE BRIEF steps up to G1 company for the first time following his win in the G2 Greenland Stakes over 1,200m at the Curragh in May. Connections have been waiting for soft ground to run this son of DUTCH ART and he looks set to get those conditions. While he needs to step up on the form, he has a potentially good low draw in stall five and is certainly worth a go at this level.
David Evan’s ROHAAN failed to produce his best when starting as second favourite for this race last year and it may have been a case of him having overexerted himself after running for 12 consecutive months without a break. He holds a similar position in the market this time around, after a good win in the G3 Bengough Stakes over the same course and distance last time but has been more sparingly campaigned this season and that should equate to a good run.
SELECTIONS: 3. CREATIVE FORCE, 8. KINROSS, 12. CASTLE STAR, 2. BRAD THE BRIEF & 10. ROHAAN
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-2:
Banker – 3. CREATIVE FORCE
Selections – 8. KINROSS, 12. CASTLE STAR, 2. BRAD THE BRIEF & 10. ROHAAN
S2-3:
Banker – 13. MIMIKYU
Selections – 11. EMILY UPJOHN, 12. ETERNAL PEARL, 7. SWEET LADY & 6. SEA LA ROSA
S2-3 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes
MIMIKYU should put her stamina to good use in the G1 British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes. The soft conditions will make this contest a real staying test and that will suit John and Thady Gosden’s filly. She came from off the pace to land the G2 Park Hill Stakes over 2,905m at Doncaster last month, but she has no problem with being ridden more prominently over this shorter distance. This is a step up in Grade, but she has only had six races in her career and is still improving.
The Gosdens have a strong hand in this race, and Frankie Dettori has picked EMILY UPJOHN in preference to MIMIKYU. She was sent off favourite for the G1 Oaks over 2,405m at Epsom after an impressive five and a half lengths victory in the G3 Musidora Stakes over 2,051m at York in May. She lost several lengths when slipping coming out of the stalls and was unlucky to be beaten a shorthead by TUESDAY in the fillies’ Classic. Her dismal effort in the G1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes over 2,392m at this course in July was too bad to be true and she has been freshened up by a three-month break.
ETERNAL PEARL completed a superb four-timer when swooping late to win a Newmarket G3 over 2,400m last month. That was an excellent performance as runner-up PERIPATETIC got first run on her and she needed plenty of gears to sweep into the lead in the closing stages. She is well worth a try at the top level and Charlie Appleby’s filly is ideally suited by this distance.
French raider SWEET LADY finished fourth behind subsequent Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe heroine ALPINISTA in the G1 Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud over 2,400m in July. She seemed to appreciate forceful tactics when making all the running to land her first G1 victory in the 2,400m Prix Vermeille at ParisLongchamp last month. If she’s allowed to set her own pace out in front she will not be easy to catch.
SEA LA ROSA stayed on well to win the G1 Prix de Royallieu over 2,800m at ParisLongchamp two weeks ago. The very soft ground was no problem to William Haggas’ filly and she will enjoy this test of stamina. There’s a chance she will find a few too quick but she is a consistent filly.
SELECTIONS: 13. MIMIKYU, 11. EMILY UPJOHN, 12. ETERNAL PEARL, 7. SWEET LADY & 6. SEA LA ROSA
S2-4 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes
Only two fillies in 34 years have beaten the colts in this, the richest 1,600m race in Europe. However, one (PERSUASIVE) was trained by John & Thady Gosden, who is never afraid to take on the boys in the autumn and now has the hot favourite in INSPIRAL, last season’s champion juvenile filly. Winner of six of her seven races, three of which carried G1 status, INSPIRAL was not ready for any of the Guineas. She made her belated return in the 1,594m Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot and produced an explosive performance, leaving her rivals chasing shadows up the straight. Consequently, there were looks of disbelief in the INSPIRAL camp when three weeks later she was beaten at short odds in the Falmouth Stakes over 1,600m at Newmarket’s July meeting. Gosden felt the filly ran “flat” on the fast ground, but on an easy surface at Deauville a month later INSPIRAL regained her superstar image when putting the colts to the sword in the 1,600m G1 Jacques le Marois. She impressed in her last piece of work at Newmarket and stable confidence has grown following this week’s rain.
However, INSPIRAL will have to be at her best to beat Godolphin’s MODERN GAMES, who just gets better and better. He came through the ranks at two and produced a career-best performance to clock up his fourth win of the season in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf over 1,600m at Del Mar. MODERN GAMES carried on where he left off when, helped by a good draw, he landed the G1 Poule d’Essai des Poulains over 1,600m on his seasonal reappearance at ParisLongchamp. He has since finished third to VADENI in the 2,100m Prix du Jockey Club, chased home the brilliant BAAEED in the 1,600m Sussex Stakes at Goodwood and then demolished a strong field in a fast time in the Woodbine Mile Stakes over 1,600m in Canada.
THE REVENANT, a 12-time winner, is a real mudlark. Though now seven, he can still hold his own with the best and beat all except the smart EREVANN in the G2 Prix Daniel Wildenstein over 1,600m at ParisLongchamp on Arc day.
CHECKANDCHALLENGE, third in that race, is only three and far less exposed. He had earlier won a 1,600m G3 at Deauville and might well be a player at better odds.
JADOOMI is unbeaten in three races since being gelded. He improved in the two weeks between winning two 1,600m G2s at Goodwood and Leopardstown last month, and the rain encouraged connections to pay a heavy supplementary fee.
SELECTIONS: 9. INSPIRAL, 8. MODERN GAMES, 7. CHECKANDCHALLENGE, 5. THE REVENANT & 2. JADOOMI
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-4:
Banker – 9. INSPIRAL
Selections – 8. MODERN GAMES, 7. CHECKANDCHALLENGE, 5. THE REVENANT & 2. JADOOMI
S2-5:
Banker – 2. BAAEED
Selections – 1. ADAYAR, 3. BAY BRIDGE, 8. MY PROSPERO & 7. ROYAL CHAMPION
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-4: Multiple – 9. INSPIRAL, 8. MODERN GAMES & 7. CHECKANDCHALLENGE
S2-5: Multiple – 2. BAAEED, 1. ADAYAR & 3. BAY BRIDGE
S2-6: Multiple – 2. MIGRATION, 13. BLUE FOR YOU & 8. STORMY ANTARCTIC
S2-5 Champion Stakes
Horses like BAAEED don’t come along very often. William Haggas’ son of SEA THE STARS is a perfect 10 from 10 and in all likelihood, he will make that 11 on Saturday in what will probably be his final career run in the G1 Champion Stakes over 1,993m. Expertly handled by Haggas, he only made his racecourse debut in June last year as a 3YO. He certainly hasn’t looked back since. He blew his rivals away in the 2,051m G1 International Stakes at York last time on his first try at this distance. Connections were considering the 2,400m G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe for his final start, but this race was always the plan and he will start at very short odds.
Comfortably his biggest rival on form is Charlie Appleby’s ADAYAR, last year’s 2,405m G1 Derby Stakes winner. The son of FRANKEL could only manage fifth in this race 12 months ago, but in fairness that came just two weeks after a fine fourth in the Arc. Appleby wasn’t happy with him earlier in the season and gave him plenty of time to come right. ADAYAR reappeared at Doncaster last month in a 2,039m conditions race and won as easily as he was entitled to. That didn’t prove much, except that he still has plenty of talent and he arrives here a very fresh horse. He is easily the biggest danger to BAAEED, but realistically a silver medal looks to be his best hope.
This is the kind of race where plenty will be considering a tierce and the one likely to take third is BAY BRIDGE for Sir Michael Stoute. He looked a bit special when winning the G3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes over 1,990m at Sandown by five lengths in May, and then ran well to be a close second in the 1,993m G1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot. Things didn’t work out for him in the G1 Eclipse Stakes over 1,990m in July, but he was only beaten four lengths and he will prefer this slightly softer surface.
Haggas also saddles MY PROSPERO who was a fine third in the 1,594m G1 St James’s Palace Stakes in June and won a 2,000m G2 at Saint-Cloud last time. He can pick up some prize money and the same is true of ROYAL CHAMPION for Roger Varian. The SHAMARDAL gelding was an impressive winner of a 2,000m Listed race at Ayr last time and as long as the ground doesn’t get too soft, he can make his way into the top five.
SELECTIONS: 2. BAAEED, 1. ADAYAR, 3. BAY BRIDGE, 8. MY PROSPERO & 7. ROYAL CHAMPION
S2-6 Balmoral Handicap
MIGRATION looks to have an excellent chance in the 1,600m Balmoral Handicap. He hasn’t run since going down by just a neck when runner-up behind MODERN NEWS in a 1,600m handicap at Newbury in April. That form has worked out well with the winner going on to be placed in G3 races and it also showed that MIGRATION runs some of his best races when returning from a break. David Menuisier’s mud-loving 6YO will appreciate the soft conditions and he stays further than this 1,600m distance. This race could turn into a bit of a slog as it is the last race on the British Champions Day card and the ground could easily have been churned up by previous contests.
BLUE FOR YOU will appreciate the return to 1,600m. He overcame traffic problems to beat stablemate ESCOBAR over 1,575m at York’s big Ebor Meeting in August. The drop to 1,400m didn’t suit him at Ascot two weeks ago when again he got anything but a clear run. He’s at his best in strongly run races on a straight course and he is open to improvement having only had seven runs since joining shrewd trainer David O’Meara from Ireland.
Veteran STORMY ANTARCTIC runs in his very first handicap at the age of nine. He split useful ZAKOUSKI and dual G2 winner JADOOMI in a 1,600m Listed race at Newmarket last October. His third behind ROYAL CHAMPION in a Listed race over 2,000m at Ayr last month was a promising performance and he has always been suited by soft ground. This could be just the sort of race to bring out the best in Ed Walker’s old timer.
Besides BLUE FOR YOU, ORBAAN also gives O’Meara a strong hand. He beat stablemate BLUE FOR YOU to land a prestigious 1,600m handicap at Goodwood in July and followed it up by swooping late to win over 1,400m at Ascot a week later. He’s held his form in two subsequent starts and has the help of in-form jockey Neil Callan.
JOHAN won the Lincoln over 1,600m on the opening day of the season at Doncaster. After finished the last in the G2 Sandown Mile in April, he had a five-month break before returning to Doncaster with a promising effort over 1,600m last month. That run should have put him spot on for this race.
SELECTIONS: 2. MIGRATION, 13. BLUE FOR YOU, 8. STORMY ANTARCTIC, 20. ORBAAN & 5. JOHAN
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