 Expert - Naohiro Goda | |
|---|---|
| Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin. | |
Expert Column for Tenno Sho Autumn (S1-1) (Naohiro Goda)
S1-1 Tenno Sho Autumn
From the current big races results in Japan, it is not difficult to find that 3YO generation has been competing well against older generations. For example, WIN MARVEL, 3YO colt, finished second in G3 Keeneland Cup at Sapporo on 28th August and G1 Sprinters Stakes at Nakayama on 2nd October. FEENGROTTEN, only 3YO in the 18 runners’ field of G3 Niigata Kinen at Niigata on 4th September, finished third there. HAPI, 3YO colt, finished second in G3 Sirius Stakes at Chukyo on 1st October. And SERIFOS, DANON SCORPION, and PIECE OF EIGHT, all of whom are 3YO colts, finished first, third and fourth in G2 Fuji Stakes at Tokyo on 22nd October.
As the standard of current 3YO is high, I believe I should regard 3YO colts in the field of Tenno Sho Autumn highly.
My favourite is GEOGLYPH, 3YO colt by DREFONG. He is a winner of G1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas), taken place at 2,000m on turf at Nakayama in April, and I reckon he should be the best 3YO over 2,000m. And his pedigree suggests he should improve from spring to autumn in 3YO season and he should be a better horse in his 4YO season next year than he is at the moment in the season of 3YO. His sire DREFONG collected his first G1 in 3YO season, when he won G1 King’s Bishop Stakes at Saratoga, and then he won G1 Breeders’ Cup Sprint in the same year. After that, he won G1 Forego Stakes in his 4YO season, therefore, I believe GEOGLYPH is still improving like his sire.
My second choice is EQUINOX, 3YO colt by KITASAN BLACK, who finished second to GEOGLYPH in G1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) in April. He won G2 Tokyo Sports Hai Nisai Stakes at Tokyo last year and finished second in G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) at Tokyo on 29th May. I am pretty sure Tokyo is EQUINOX’s favourite course.
Although both GEOGLYPH and EQUINOX have not run since the Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) on 29th May, they have been trained well at Miho Training Centre and I judge they are ready to run their race.
I assess the best older horse in the field is PANTHALASSA, who dead-heated with LORD NORTH in G1 Dubai Turf at Meydan on 26th March. If he re-produces his form in Dubai this Sunday, I believe PANTHALASSA has a good chance to finish within the first three. And I am sure PANTHALASSA handles the track at Tokyo well, as he started there twice, won one of them, and finished second once.
JACK D’OR, winner of G2 Kinko Sho at Chukyo on 13th March and G2 Sapporo Kinen at Sapporo on 21st August, both over 2,000m, is my fourth choice.
SHAHRYAR was disappointing fourth in five runners’ field of G1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes over 1,993m at Ascot on 15th June last time out. I assess the competition here is as strong as that race and I don’t want to rank him better than fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 6. GEOGLYPH, 7. EQUINOX, 3. PANTHALASSA, 9. JACK D’OR & 8. SHAHRYAR
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