 Expert - Brett Davis | |
|---|---|
| Brett Davis was introduced to Australian Racing by his father back in the early 1980’s when his family became involved in formulating “Thoroughbred Racing Syndications”. Brett worked from 1995 as a Professional Form Analysts and Race Broadcaster with an array of companies throughout most parts of the Australia Racing industry. He currently resides in Adelaide, his hometown in Australia, where he is Chief Thoroughbred Race Caller and Form Analyst for Tabcorp / SkyChannel / RadioTAB. Brett Davis also spent 2 years with the Singapore Turf Club and 13 Racing Seasons with the Hong Kong Jockey Club between 2006 to 2019 as a leading Form Analyst / Race Caller and was the HKJC Chief Race Caller from 2014, calling the last 5 Hong Kong International (Turf World Championships) race meetings and over 50 G1 races. Brett has immense passion for Australian Racing both personally and professionally. With his diverse knowledge and long standing industry relations he’s a valuable asset to racing and it’s enthusiasts. | |
Expert Column for Melbourne Cup Day (S2) (Brett Davis)
S2-1 Batman Stakes
QUANG TRI looks a very smart young filly from the Patrick Payne stable and she’ll take plenty of beating. She’s already established the coveted black type print following a 3YO Listed win here at Flemington in July. A three months freshen up followed and she’s since returned with a comprehensive win first up at Caulfield. An outside barrier draw appears the only negative.
ZOE’S PROMISE is on the verge of a hat trick following two top class wins, with the G2 Fillies Classic the highlight. She’s the highest rated in this field by some margin giving her an edge at the set weights. Alana Kelly has been aboard for both of her wins and she’s an underrated jockey in Australia. The only unknown factor is the 1,800m but she gives every indication she can run it out.
DASHING has raced at the highest level in his past couple and this is an easier assignment for him to attack. He was superb in the G1 Caulfield Guineas despite eventually finishing ninth and followed it up with an honest but tiring fifth in the G2 Moonee Valley Vase. The drop back from 2,040m to 1,800m therefore looks ideal so expect him to roll forward.
DREAM HOUR found the line nicely in the Listed Geelong Classic over 2,200m so a drop back in trip won’t be an issue. He’s very raw, but super progressive and with Damien Oliver occupying the saddle my confidence continues to grow. He’ll be hoping for a nice strong tempo, as he enjoyed sitting back, and if that’s the case I won’t be surprised if he wins.
TOKENIST broke through for his maiden victory at Mornington last start and he’s worth considering at a longer price. The up in class and distance combination is a step hill to climb, but if you’ve got the goods under the bonnet, it can be done. Good horses have a turn of acceleration at the ready, which is how he won last start.
SELECTIONS: 12. QUANG TRI, 1. ZOE’S PROMISE, 3. DASHING, 4. DREAM HOUR & 8. TOKENIST
S2-2 Schweppervescence Plate
FISSION looked terrific winning at Moonee Valley last start and he’s got a bright future. In a race with multiple winning chances he goes on top with his sectionals that day impressive. A Flemington straight race over 1,000m is an entirely different task but he appears well above average and that might be enough to see him win again.
CROSSWINDS could well go around over the odds following a poor return in the G3 H.D.F McNeil Stakes at Caulfield in August. He’s had time to regroup and is glowing in the coat during morning track work. He defeated a group of quality young horses at Listed level in March and if he bounces back to his best he’ll win.
ZOU SENSATION put in an ordinary performance last start behind the since The Everest winner GIGA KICK. The track was rather firm that day and he dropped out noticeably a long way from home. With cushion in the track expected, easier opposition to race and champion jockey Tommy Berry now riding, I’d suggest he’s a must include.
HALLSTATT comes out of the same race that FISSION won and a straight race could well suit. He’s constantly showed a lack of gate speed but conversely finds the line hard when it counts. The 1,000m race at Flemington is equivalent to a 1,200m race on most other tracks which is exactly what he wants.
XTRAVAGANT STAR is drawn near the outside rail which is often the best part of the track when it comes to straight racing. She’s blessed with speed to burn and has already amassed over HKD 6.9 million in prize money. She tired final stages first up at Caulfield but she’s back in 1,000m and is guaranteed to give a sight.
SELECTIONS: 4. FISSION, 1. CROSSWINDS, 9. ZOU SENSATION, 13. HALLSTATT & 16. XTRAVAGANT STAR
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-2:
Banker – 4. FISSION
Selections – 1. CROSSWINDS, 9. ZOU SENSATION, 13. HALLSTATT & 16. XTRAVAGANT STAR
S2-3:
Banker – 8. BERMADEZ
Selections – 1. JUST FOLK, 4. NONAME LANE, 14. WHITE NOISE & 9. SIR DAVY
S2-3 Furphy Plate (Melbourne Cup Day Plate)
Trained by Michael Moroney, BERMADEZ is an on pacer who’s reaching peak fitness at the right time and he’ll be up on his toes with early speed. He stuck on well in the Listed Sale Cup over 1,600m after doing his fair share of work and the form around that race is strong. He boasts an outstanding record at Flemington, adores any cushion or dampness in the track and thrives on a battle.
JUST FOLK has been extremely competitive this campaign and although he only finished tenth in the G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes, the run was good. He’s since been narrowly beaten at Listed and G3 level respectively and today arrives at the peak of his powers. With cushion in the track expected and plenty of experience at famous Flemington absorbed, he’s predicted to be in the finish.
NONAME LANE has elevated himself to a new level this campaign winning five of his last seven starts. The South Aussie won the Listed Balaklava Cup and Seymour Cup not long ago when dictating the speed and that’s exactly what he’ll be attempting to do here. A solid trial last Friday showed him maintaining form and he’s perfectly drawn in gate one.
WHITE NOISE has done his fair share of travelling after initially beginning his racing career in New Zealand. With five wins to his credit he’s entitled to some respect following an excellent first up run in the Listed Sale Cup. He’s adaptable regarding race pattern, comfortable on any type of racing surface and has a potent turn of foot.
SIR DAVY hasn’t quite recaptured his best this campaign but he’s not far away. His two runs back from a spell have been competitive without dazzling but he’s capable of further improvement today. The wide draw makes it difficult to select him with a great deal of confidence but he’s by no means a long shot in this race.
SELECTIONS: 8. BERMADEZ, 1. JUST FOLK, 4. NONAME LANE, 14. WHITE NOISE & 9. SIR DAVY
S2-4 Melbourne Cup
GOLD TRIP has been in Australia for some time after arriving from France as a high grade progressive stayer. His only career win came in a G2 at Lyon Parilly in 2020 but it was followed by a pair of G1 minor placings and a fourth in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe. All Australian runs have been full of merit but it was his recent closing second in the G1 Caulfield Cup that proved he’s right on target. The handicap conditions of the G1 Melbourne Cup are slightly against but he has the class.
LUNAR FLARE is racing in great heart after winning the G3 The Bart Cummings over 2,510m at Flemington. She followed that up with a courageous hard chasing second place in the recently run G2 Moonee Valley Gold Cup on a heavy track. Her father FIORENTE won the Melbourne Cup in 2013 so there are no reasons to suggest she won’t run the longer journey. She’s remains weighted to run well despite a slight penalty and the quicker they go during the run the faster she’ll finish.
DEAUVILLE LEGEND heads the markets and the charge from the International raiders in a quest to win Australia’s greatest race the Melbourne Cup. His form reads particularly well after EL BODEGON, who he defeated convincingly at York’s G2 Great Voltigeur Stakes in August, came out and finished third in last week’s weight for age G1 Cox Plate. On the flip side he’s untried at 3,200m, has never raced on a track worse than good and must adapt quickly following a trip away from home. Connections have happily reported that he’s arrived and settled well, is in great shape and shall likely be a force to be reckoned with.
KNIGHTS ORDER finished an admirable third in the G1 Caulfield Cup after doing all the heavy lifting in the lead. The rise to 3,200m shall see him obtain a forward position, whilst conserving energy, as they run down the Flemington straight on the first occasion. The former European was unplaced in last year’s Cup but has since won the G1 Sydney Cup in April over the same distance at Randwick, with a dominant front running display. He’s well weighted, proven at the distance and revel’s on soft and heavy tracks, which can make him difficult to catch.
VOW AND DECLARE last saluted the judge with a gutsy and historic win in the 2019 edition of the Melbourne Cup. Since then he hasn’t been the same animal until recently when he displayed signs of his old self at Flemington in a 2,500m handicap when finishing third. Subsequent runs in the G3 The Bart Cummings and G1 Caulfield Cup have been luckless but admirable, and the hopes of trainer and connections are remaining quite optimistic. He’s proven at the journey, has the miles in his legs and must be respected on recent runs.
SELECTIONS: 1. GOLD TRIP, 18. LUNAR FLARE, 8. DEAUVILLE LEGEND, 3. KNIGHTS ORDER & 10. VOW AND DECLARE
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (18 unit bets):
S2-4:
Banker – 1. GOLD TRIP
Selections – 18. LUNAR FLARE, 8. DEAUVILLE LEGEND, 3. KNIGHTS ORDER & 10. VOW AND DECLARE
S2-5:
Banker – 6. MINSK MOMENT
Selections – 7. THE GARDEN, 10. MUNHAMEK & 13. DETONATOR JACK
S2-5 BM90 Handicap
MINSK MOMENT was exceptionally good at Geelong winning the BM84 Handicap under the guidance of super jockey James McDonald. Chris Waller has many exciting young horses in his yard and this fellow is right amongst them. He likes relaxing early before finishing with a burst and no track concerns are advised.
THE GARDEN is well placed jumping from the inside barrier two and can utilise his natural speed to secure a striking position. All three runs back this campaign have suggested he’s in good shape and in hindsight he should’ve won his last couple. The track and distance suit and he shouldn’t have many excuses once they dash for the judge.
MUNHAMEK is a former Hong Kong galloper named HALL OF CHAMP, that’s been revitalised by the Nick Ryan stable. He’s arguably racing better than when residing in Hong Kong with a win and hard fought third currently to his name. A good solid tempo to chase has been the preferred recipe in his life down under and it’s a genuine chance of unfolding.
DETONATOR JACK made a big impression during his first campaign tasting defeat on just the one occasion. There is still plenty to learn about this talented 4YO gelding and we’ll find out more following his run today. Nevertheless, he’s well above average and despite the fact he’ll be looking for ground he could easily ping fresh, and blow this field away.
SELECTIONS: 6. MINSK MOMENT, 7. THE GARDEN, 10. MUNHAMEK & 13. DETONATOR JACK
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-5: Multiple – 6. MINSK MOMENT, 7. THE GARDEN & 10. MUNHAMEK
S2-6: Multiple – 1. PROMISE OF SUCCESS, 5. HERESY & 10. DECENT RAINE
S2-7: Multiple – 10. NICOLINI VITO, 11. ZETHUS & 14. PIONEER RIVER
S2-6 The Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes (Maybe Mahal Stakes)
7YO PROMISE OF SUCCESS is an ageing Sydney trained galloper who has the score on the board against her own sex. She’s the recent winner of a high quality affair at Randwick in Sydney and ideally suited to the distance and anticipated wet track conditions. It’s her first trip to Flemington but I wouldn’t be allowing that to undermine her presence.
HERESY is a two time G3 winner trained by Godolphin that thrives on rain affected tracks. Her two runs back this preparation in Sydney have been excellent at a high level and she arrives in terrific shape. She’s tactical versatile with a sharp turn of speed and you’d be brave to leave her out.
DECENT RAINE has returned in sparkling form following a long winter spell. She’s a lover of the Flemington track and the wet conditions and is tactically adaptable should the rider need to make a choice. With a good draw to leave from and previous winning jockey aboard, she’s a must include.
SHE’S ALL CLASS is the winner of only the one race but has been placed twice at G2 level. The 1,400m just tested her over the final strides in the G2 Rose Of Kingston Stakes last start but she’s a very honest type. She’ll make her own luck from a perfect draw with natural speed and then be in it for a long way.
KATALIN has been very consistent throughout her entire career and another win isn’t to faraway. The stable have opted to change around her gear plus added blinkers for the very first time. James McDonald is winning everything in Australia at the moment so you’ll be guaranteed a high quality ride.
SELECTIONS: 1. PROMISE OF SUCCESS, 5. HERESY, 10. DECENT RAINE, 9. SHE’S ALL CLASS & 11. KATALIN
S2-7 MSS Security Sprint (Always Welcome Stakes)
NICOLINI VITO is trained by the power Hayes family and a quality performer on his day. He’s reaching his peak this campaign at an ideal time and suited to conditions of this race. Combining that with an unbeaten record down the 1,200m straight over the same course makes him worthy and the one to beat.
ZETHUS has appeared very sharp this time in and much improved compared to last campaign. Jamie Kah hasn’t allowed anyone else to jump aboard on race day yet and the draw appears ideal being out wide. James McDonald was aboard in two lead up trials which is another reason to get involved.
PIONEER RIVER is a course and distance expert winning three of six starts here over 1,200m. He’s most affective on firmer tracks but has run well with the sting out of the ground. It’s been sometime since he won a race but he’s peaking at the right time to be competitive.
CHASSIS arrives to this event with one run under the belt following a nice winter spell. She’s got an excellent record at Flemington over this distance and can handle various track conditions with ease. Her record second up is immaculate and for that reason she is dangerous to leave out.
SELECTIONS: 10. NICOLINI VITO, 11. ZETHUS, 14. PIONEER RIVER & 13. CHASSIS
Disclaimer:
The above content and information are the personal views and/or opinions of each individual writer and do not represent the views of The Hong Kong Jockey Club and/or its subsidiaries (together, the "HKJC"). The content and information are provided by the writers solely for entertainment purpose only, and should not be construed as a suggestion for anyone to place any bet nor should they be taken and/or relied upon as advice of any kind. The above content and information have not been verified, confirmed and/or endorsed by HKJC and HKJC shall not be liable to any person for any loss or damage suffered by such person as a result of any use or reliance of the above content or information.
HKJC shall not be required to give and does not give any warranty, whether express or implied, arising out of or in connection with the content or information. The Club disclaims any responsibility and accepts no liability (whether in tort, contract or otherwise) for any direct or indirect loss of damage arising from any inaccuracies, omission or typographical errors that may be contained therein. The Club also does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for purpose of any such information.
