 Expert - Jon Lees | |
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| Jon Lees is an award-winning racing journalist who was senior news reporter for the Racing Post for 20 years, before that he was chief racing correspondent for Britain’s national news agency, the Press Association. He was named Racing Reporter of the Year at the HWPA Derby Awards in 2013. He has travelled extensively covering horse racing, attending his first Breeders’ Cup in 1994. Since 2018 Jon has been a freelance, writing for The Times, the Telegraph, At The Races and Breeders’ Cup, working in PR for Ladbrokes and Newbury racecourse, and regularly contributes to the website horseracingplanet.com. | |
Expert Column for Breeders' Cup Turf & Breeders' Cup Classic (S1) (Jon Lees)
S1-1 Breeders' Cup Turf
Europe continued its domination of this event at Del Mar 12 months ago when Charlie Appleby trained YIBIR, with William Buick in the saddle, captured the prize for Godolphin. The Charlie Appleby stable is strongly represented again with REBEL’S ROMANCE and NATIONS PRIDE, two of the lead contenders to extend Europe’s success in this 2,400m race which the visitors have captured 24 times from 38 races, a strike rate of 63%, and 11 of the last 14 runnings.
REBEL’S ROMANCE has won two G1s at 2,400m in Germany and the 3YO NATIONS PRIDE has gained his two top level victories on US soil, including the G3 Jockey Club Derby Invitational Stakes at Aqueduct over 2,400m and the G1 Saratoga Derby Invitational Stakes at Saratoga over 1,900m, experience that will stand him in good stead at Keeneland. Yet both will need to improve again in this much stronger company.
MISHRIFF is one of the horses they will need to raise their game against. One of the world’s best horses in recent years, with victories in the Prix du Jockey Club, Saudi Cup, Dubai Sheema Classic and International Stakes, this will be the swansong for the winner of more than HK$120 million in prize money. He has not won in 2022 yet shown glimpses that the ability is still there notably when an unlucky second in the G1 Eclipse Stakes over 1,990m in July when he was beaten a neck. He was never comfortable on the very soft ground in the 2,400m Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and has been freshened up for this mission. The booking of Frankie Dettori, who has not ridden him since October 2020, is another plus.
Aidan O’Brien is the most successful trainer in the Breeders’ Cup Turf with six wins, including in 2015 at Keeneland with FOUND. He is not represented by a horse of her star quality but BROOME and STONE AGE bring their own strong credentials. BROOME’s bare results can be misleading as he has often been deployed as a pacemaker for one of the stable’s other contenders. Yet on other days he has shown he is a top talent, finishing second to YIBIR in this race 12 months ago, and winning the G2 Hardwicke Stakes over 2,392m at Ascot in June. Irad Ortiz, Jr, who rode him at Del Mar, has kept the mount with Ryan Moore on stablemate STONE AGE. He was the stable’s number one hope for the Derby Stakes, in which he was a well-beaten sixth but he ran much better when fifth in the Irish Champion Stakes over 2,000m.
The US team can never be totally written off but the mare WAR LIKE GODDESS, ex-European HIGHLAND CHIEF and veteran CHANNEL MAKER are likely battling for place money.
SELECTIONS: 11. MISHRIFF, 4. BROOME, 3. STONE AGE, 13. HIGHLAND CHIEF & 6. CHANNEL MAKER
S1-2 Breeders' Cup Classic
The best horses in the US on dirt are all here but one horse towers over them in the shape of the brilliant FLIGHTLINE, the world’s top racehorse on the strength of some staggering performances. Without him in the field this would still be a top quality race but with him the event is elevated to another level. If he brings his A-game this could be a race to remember for years to come.
The 4YO FLIGHTLINE has only run five times and is unbeaten in all starts. He recorded his debut win by 13.3 lengths and wide margin victories have been a feature of his races ever since. In June he won the G1 Metropolitan Handicap at Belmont by 6 lengths, conceding 2lbs to the second HAPPY SAVER. On his next start, his first try at 2,000m, he produced an astonishing performance to capture the G1 Pacific Classic Stakes at Del Mar by 19.3 lengths. The horse who finished second was the Dubai World Cup winner, COUNTRY GRAMMER. He has won all his races with minimal effort and his best may be yet to come.
LIFE IS GOOD has only been defeated once in the US and captured last year’s Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes, in which he beat the 2021 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner KNICKS GO over 1,800m, with powerful frontrunning performances. He started favourite for the Dubai World Cup on his first attempt at 2,000m but seemed not to last the trip as he finished a weakening fourth behind COUNTRY GRAMMER. Stamina doubts remain.
RICH STRIKE, the surprise winner of the Kentucky Derby at long odds, showed that was not just a one-off when beaten a head by HOT ROD CHARLIE in a contentious running of the G2 Lukas Classic over 1,800m at Churchill Downs where he seems to do all his best running.
The top 3YO in the field is EPICENTER, who since finishing second in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes, has won the G2 Jim Dandy Stakes and G1 Travers Stakes, his first success at 2,000m.
OLYMPIAD has had a busy campaign, winning five of his six starts. His defeat came in a sub-par effort in Saratoga’s G1 Whitney Stakes, won by LIFE IS GOOD and in which HAPPY SAVER was second, HOT ROD CHARLIE third and OLYMPIAD fourth. He bounced back to land the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes over 2,000m at Saratoga in September.
SELECTIONS: 4. FLIGHTLINE, 6. EPICENTER, 2. LIFE IS GOOD, 7. OLYMPIAD & 5. HOT ROD CHARLIE
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