Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Expert Column for Queen Elizabeth II Cup Day (S1) (Naohiro Goda)

S1-1 3yo and up 1 win

This is an allowance race for one time winning 3YO and upper over 1,800m on dirt at Hanshin.

My favourite is WONDERFUL TODAY, 3YO colt by MAJESTIC WARRIOR, who has finished within first three in last three starts at this class. He finished second in the allowance race over the same course and distance as this race on 22nd October, it was the first start for him since 27th August, and his body weight was 22lbs heavier than the weight on 27th August. Understand his fitness on 22nd October was 80% to 90%. In spite of it, WONDERFUL TODAY beaten only by neck in the last start, and I assess he has ability to graduate this class. And I am sure his condition has been improving.

My second choice is VAJRANDA, 4YO colt by RULERSHIP, winner of G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup at Sha Tin in 2012. He was sidelined, due to injury, for eleven months from the end of October 2021 to September 2022. While he was well beaten in allowance race for one time winners at Chukyo on 17th September, he finished third in allowance race for one time winners at Hanshin on 10th October and second in allowance race for one time winners at Hanshin on 29th October. It is obvious that his condition has been improving race by race. VAJRANDA is full brother to LILAC COLOR, who won in open class, and I believe VAJRANDA has potential to compete in higher class.

SUNRISE ARION, 3YO colt by THE FACTOR, who won the 1,800m maiden on dirt at Hanshin on 25th June, is my third choice. Although he was beaten fifth in the allowance race for one time winners at Kokura on 16th July, when he disappointed the punters who supported him as the favourite, I assess Kokura Racecourse did not suit him. I judge SUNRISE ARION should run better on coming Sunday.

SHADOW ISLE, 3YO colt by NOVELLIST, who finished fifth in allowance race for one time winners at Niigata on 29th October, is my fourth choice. The allowance race was the first start for SHADOW ISLE since 31st July and I understand he needed the run. I believe he can run better than the last start this Sunday, and he should have a good chance to finish within first four.

LINE OF SOUL, 3YO colt by SINISTER MINISTER, is my fifth choice. LINE OF SOUL finished third in the allowance race for one time winners over the same courses and distance as this race on 5th March, and this performance should be regarded highly, because the winner, NOTTURNO would subsequently win Japan Dirt Derby, domestic G1 at Oi Racecourse on 13th July, and the second finisher, VALLE DE LA LUNA, would subsequently win JBC Ladies Classic, domestic G1 at Morioka Racecourse on 3rd November.

SELECTIONS: 8. WONDERFUL TODAY, 12. VAJRANDA, 3. SUNRISE ARION, 10. SHADOW ISLE & 6. LINE OF SOUL

S1-2 3yo and up 2 wins

This is the 2,000m allowance race for two time winning 3YO and upper on dirt course. This is a unique course and distance in one sense or another and I understand horses who have run well at this course and distance should be regarded highly.

My favourite is SUPER CHIEF, 3YO colt by KINSHASA NO KISEKI, who won a maiden race over the same course and distance as this race on 26th June. SUPER CHIEF finished second in the allowance race for two time winners at Hanshin on 8th October and I assess this is a good performance, as he was beaten only by neck, although it was the first start for him at this class. And he covered last 600m for 37 seconds, which was the quickest in 13 runners, and the finishing time, 1 minute and 51.6 seconds, is quicker than standard on that day. I select SUPER CHIEF as my first choice with assurance.

SHAILENE, 3YO filly by ARROGATE, is my second choice. Although she was beaten eleventh in the allowance race for two time winners at Kokura on 24th July, she received a lot of kick back in the middle of big field. I understand it was a very tough race for her. Most recently, SHAILENE finished third in the allowance race for two time winners at Tokyo on 16th October, and it was a good effort. And she has been trained much sharper since the last start and I believe her condition is improving.

JU TARO, 3YO colt who is also by ARROGATE, is my third choice. When he won a maiden at Hanshin last November sensationally over 10 lengths, racing fans expected him to be the next star at dirt division, however, his performance since then betrayed the expectation, for example, he was beaten tenth in G3 Unicorn Stakes over 1,600m at Tokyo on 19th June. He was given four months break after that race, and finished third in the allowance race for two time winners at Hanshin on 15th October. I understand it was a good performance, although that is the race on turf. Starting gate of this race is set on turf course and I believe it helps JU TARO.

KITANO SERENADE, 3YO colt by HOKKO TARUMAE, who finished fifth in the allowance race for two time winners over 1,700m dirt course at Sapporo on 21st August, is my fourth choice. I assess it was a good effort, because it was the first start for him at this class and he received a lot of kick back in middle of field on the rail. And I suppose extra 300m should help him.

MEISHO KOJO, who finished fourth in the allowance race for two time winners over the same course and distance as this race on 22nd October, is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 9. SUPER CHIEF, 3. SHAILENE, 7. JU TARO, 6. KITANO SERENADE & 4. MEISHO KOJO

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 9. SUPER CHIEF
Selections – 3. SHAILENE, 7. JU TARO, 6. KITANO SERENADE & 4. MEISHO KOJO
S1-3:
Banker – 3. DARK ECLIPSE
Selections – 2. MIXOLOGY, 12. PINOCHLE, 1. KAFUJI AZUL & 5. BLACK SHIELD

S1-3 3yo and up 2 wins

This is an allowance race for two time winning 3YO and upper over 2,200m on turf at Hanshin, which is the same course and distance as G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup, feature race of the day.

My favorite is DARK ECLIPSE, 3YO colt by DURAMENTE. He is well-red colt, as his dam is half-sister to DEEP IMPACT, and racing fans thought he would be a star horse when he made successful racecourse debut at Hakodate on 8th August 2021. However, he was frail and needed the time to mature as a racehorse. DARK ECLIPSE won the allowance race for one time winners at Hanshin on 22nd October. And I have an impression that he has improved significantly. His morning track work at Ritto Training Centre on Wednesday 9th was very impressive and I am sure he is a better horse physically and mentally now. Although this is the first time for him to compete against two time winners, I believe DARK ECLIPSE has ability to graduate this class.

MIXOLOGY, 3YO colt by ORFEVRE, who won the allowance race for one time winners at Niigata on 29th October, is my second choice. It was the first time for him to run the race beyond 2,000m and I think it was a good choice by the trainer, as he won that race comfortably. And I have feeling that 2,200m turf course at Hanshin, where runners are required stamina than speed, is suitable for MIXOLOGY.

PINOCHLE, 6YO horse by KING KAMEHAMEHA, who finished second in the allowance race for two time winners at Hanshin on 15th October, is my third choice. He was settled at rear of field in that race and delivered strong challenge on homestretch, covering final 600m for 33.8 seconds, which was the quickest in seven runners. If he re-produces that form on Sunday, I am sure PINOCHLE has a good chance to finish within first three here.

KAFUJI AZUL, 4YO colt by HARBINGER, who finished second in last two starts at this class, is my fourth choice. His performance in 2022 World All-Star Jockeys series 4th Leg at Sapporo on 28th August must be regarded highly, as he was nearly bumped by the winner on homestretch and was still able to finish second, beaten by neck. And I suppose 2,200m turf course at Hanshin is suitable for KAFUJI AZUL.

BLACK SHIELD, 3YO colt by KITASAN BLACK, is my fifth choice. Although he was beaten fifth in allowance race for two time winners at Chukyo on 2nd October and disappointed the punters who supported him as the hot favourite, I assess the slowly-run race did not suit him. He is trained well at Ritto Training Centre since last start and should run better on Sunday.

SELECTIONS: 3. DARK ECLIPSE, 2. MIXOLOGY, 12. PINOCHLE, 1. KAFUJI AZUL & 5. BLACK SHIELD

S1-4 Kigiku Sho

Kigiku Sho is stakes race for one time winning 2YOs over 2,000m on turf. JUSTIN PALACE, who finished third in G1 Kikuka Sho at Hanshin on 23rd October, is the winner of Kigiku Sho in 2021. And POTAGER, winner of G1 Osaka Hai at Hanshin on 3rd April, is the second finisher in Kigiku Sho in 2019. While most of leading contenders have started only once and there are many uncertain elements, I select young horses who should have potential ability.

My favourite is LE MONDE BRILLE, colt by EPIPHANEIA trained by Yasuo Tomomichi. He won the newcomer race over the same course and distance as this race on 16th October, and I regard this performance highly, although the winning margin was only three quarters of a length. He was settled well at fourth position in the slowly-run race and responded sharply when Christophe Lemaire on saddle asked him to make a move at the top of homestretch. LE MONDE BRILLE is the third foal out of LA CRESSONNIERE, who is unbeaten winner of G1 Prix de Diane and G1 Poule d'Essai des Pouliches, and his performance in the newcomer race reminded me the dam’s performance. He is now trained much better in the morning than he was before the maiden and G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) in 2023 should be in sight of the connection.

The performance of PHOTON BLUE in the Newcomer race at Sapporo on 28th August was also impressive. When I saw him in parade ring during that race, I felt he was still immature and was surprised to watch him won that race. I am sure he is a young talent. As well as LE MONDE BRILLE, PHOTON BLUE is trained much better now than he was before the maiden and it is obvious that he is improving. PHOTON BLUE is my second choice.

My third choice is SEVEN MAGICIAN, colt by JUST A WAY. While he is a winner of newcomer race at Nakayama on 2nd October, he looked very green during the race, as he was not on the bid well and changed the lead awkwardly on homestretch. He still managed to win the newcomer race by two and a half lengths and I feel SEVEN MAGICIAN has a bright future.

DANON PEDRO, winner of maiden at Chukyo on 2nd October, is my fourth choice. I have an impression from his performance in the maiden that he would be a good stayer in future. It is another factor that Ryan Moore is booked for him in Kigiku Sho.

And FLYER TRUE, winner of maiden at Niigata on 27th August, is my fifth choice. His second dam, KYNTHIA, finished second in G1 Hanshin Sansai Himba Stakes and I believe FLYER TRUE should act well at Hanshin.

SELECTIONS: 7. LE MONDE BRILLE, 3. PHOTON BLUE, 8. SEVEN MAGICIAN, 1. DANON PEDRO & 4. FLYER TRUE

S1-5 Muromachi Stakes

Muromachi Stakes is an open race for Group or Listed races performers over 1,200m on dirt at Hanshin.

Form shows the best horse in the field is JUSTIN, who has won five races at this class, including two races at Oi Racecourse of NAR. The 6YO horse by ORFEVRE won a handicap at Hanshin on 20th February carrying 129lbs, when he defeated RYUNO YUKINA, who subsequently finished second in the domestic G1 JBC Sprint at Morioka. While he was beaten third in Cluster Cup, domestic G3 at Morioka on 16th August, the anti-clockwise track did not suit him. JUSTIN started at dirt track at Hanshin for three times, won two of them and finished second once. It is obvious that Hanshin is his favourite track. Hence, I thought I would select JUSTIN as my favourite in Muromachi Stakes, however, I changed my mind after JRA announced his weight. JRA’s official handicappers decide JUSTIN carries 130lbs in Muromachi Stakes and I think it is too much to carry. I demote JUSTIN as my third choice.

My new favourite is OMEGA RAINBOW, 6YO horse by I’LL HAVE ANOTHER. He has been running at this class consistently, finishing third in the Listed Ritto Stakes at Chukyo on 15th May, fourth in an open handicap at Hakodate on 9th July, and third in G3 Elm Stakes at Sapporo on 7th August. While I am slightly worried about the distance of this race is a bit short, as I reckon the best trip for OMEGA RAINBOW should be between 1,400m and 1,600m, he finished third in G3 Capella Stakes over 1,200m on dirt at Nakayama last December, and I judge he can show himself at his best in Muromachi Stakes. His weight, 125lbs, is fair, and it is encouraging that Ryan Moore is booked for him on Sunday.

My second choice is HIRO SHIGE GOLD. While he is now 7YO, he finished second in an open handicap of at Nakayama on 20th March and third in another open handicap at Niigata on 21st August. Those performances prove that the horse by SOUTH VIGOROUS is enjoying a green old age. Although HIRO SHIGE GOLD was beaten 15th in the Listed Opal Stakes at Hanshin on 9th October, it was on turf course and we can forget this poor performance.

FIRE LANCE, who won an allowance race for three time winners over the same course and distance as Muromachi Stakes, on 10th October, is my fourth choice. Although this is the first time for him to compete in this class, I assess he has ability to finish within the first four here.

MISUZU GRAND O, who won two races over 1,200m on dirt at Hanshin, is my fifth choice. He finished fifth in an open race at Nakayama on 24th September and I think it was a good performance, as it was his first start since May.

SELECTIONS: 12. OMEGA RAINBOW, 5. HIRO SHIGE GOLD, 2. JUSTIN, 11. FIRE LANCE & 6. MISUZU GRAND O

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 12. OMEGA RAINBOW
Selections – 5. HIRO SHIGE GOLD, 2. JUSTIN, 11. FIRE LANCE & 6. MISUZU GRAND O
S1-6:
Banker – 4. DARING TACT
Selections – 11. NAMUR, 8. ANDVARANAUT, 7. IZU JO NO KISEKI & 10. STUNNING ROSE

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 12. OMEGA RAINBOW, 5. HIRO SHIGE GOLD & 2. JUSTIN
S1-6: Multiple – 4. DARING TACT, 11. NAMUR & 8. ANDVARANAUT
S1-7: Multiple – 5. MOZU RICKEY, 9. VASA & 11. METAMORPHOSE

S1-6 Queen Elizabeth II Cup

Fillies and mares representing four generations get together in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup at Hanshin, and I look forward to seeing how the rising new powers could compete against reigning old powers.

My choice is the old power and I select DARING TACT, 5YO mare by EPIPHANEIA, as the favourite. DARING TACT is a winner of Triple Tiara for 3YO fillies in 2020. In addition, she finished third in G1 Japan Cup in 2020, beaten by ALMOND EYE and CONTRAIL, and I am convinced DARING TACT is one of the best 3YO fillies I have ever seen in Japan. As she started twice in 2021, three times in 2022 so far, and lost all of them, people say that DARING TACT has passed her prime. However, I do not agree with this view emphatically. Please playback the race video of G1 Takarazuka Kinen, conducted over the same course and distance as this race on 26th June. Devastating winner was TITLEHOLDER, who won it by two lengths establishing new track record. TITLEHOLDER is arguably the best racehorse in training in Japan, although he was disappointing 11th in the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, and DARING TACT finished third to TITLEHOLDER in Takarazuka Kinen, defeating DEEP BOND, EFFORIA, WIN MARILYN, PANTHALASSA, STAY FOOLISH, and POTAGER. If DARING TACT re-produces that form, who can beat her on Sunday? Though she has beaten sixth in G2 Sankei Sho All Comers at Nakayama on 25th September, it was her first start since June and just a prep race for Queen Elizabeth II Cup. She is now trained at Ritto Training Centre sharply and I am sure DARING TACT is ready to run her race on Sunday.

I judge the best 3YO filly in the field is NAMUR, although she was beaten second by STUNNING ROSE in G1 Shuka Sho over 2,000m at Hanshin on 16th October. It was the first start for NAMUR since May, while STUNNING ROSE prepped at G3 Shion Stakes on 10th September. As the margin between them in Shuka Sho was only half a length, I believe NAMUR can turn the table in this race.

ANDVARANAUT looks very attractive in the field because of two reasons. Firstly, it is obvious that Hanshin is the favourite racecourse for the 4YO filly by KING KAMEHAMEHA, as she started there five times, won one of them, finished the second three times, and third once. And it is another encouraging factor that Ryan Moore, who starts to ride in Japan this weekend, is booked for ANDVARANAUT.

My fourth choice is IZU JO NO KISEKI, ridden by Christophe Lemaire. She finished fifth in G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup in 2021, although she lost a shoe during the race. I believe she can run better this year than last year.

I understand I should not ignore STUNNING ROSE, winner of the G1 Shuka Sho last time out and second finisher in G1 Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) in May.

SELECTIONS: 4. DARING TACT, 11. NAMUR, 8. ANDVARANAUT, 7. IZU JO NO KISEKI & 10. STUNNING ROSE

S1-7 Doncaster Cup

Doncaster Cup is a stakes race for two-time winning 3YOs and upper over 1,400m on dirt at Hanshin.

My favourite is MOZU RICKEY, 3YO colt by TRANSCEND. He won an allowance race for one time winners at Chukyo on 5th June, and then, finished ninth in allowance race for two time winners at Tokyo on 25th June. While it looks on paper that he is not good enough to compete against two time winners, there were three reasons why MOZU RICKEY was well beaten. Firstly, the distance of that race, 1,600m, was too long for him. Secondly, he jumped from barrier 1 and had a lot of kick back in middle of field on the rail. Thirdly, it was very hot that day and he suffered mild heat-prostration. MOZU RICKEY was given a break afterwards and refreshed. He has been trained very well, since he returned at Ritto Training Centre in late September. And Hanshin is his favourite track, as he has started there for three times, won one race, and finished second twice.

My second choice is VASA, 4YO colt by KIZUNA, who finished second in allowance race for two time winners over the same course and distance as Doncaster Cup on 15th October. He finished second in allowance race for two time winners at Chukyo on 21st May as well, and has proved he is competitive at this class. He is a great course and distance performer, started for four times, won one race, finished second twice, and third once. It is obvious that this is the course and distance which VASA shows himself at his best.

My third choice is METAMORPHOSE, 5YO mare by KINSHASA NO KISEKI. She won allowance race for one time winners over 1,400m on dirt at Hanshin on 8th October. And then, finished fourth in allowance race for two time winners over 1,400m on dirt at Hanshin on 30th October. Her performance in that allowance race should be regarded highly, as it was the first time for her to run at this class and she dwelt coming out of stalls. She has strong late kick and should have ability to finish within the first three here.

KITANO EXPRESS finished third in allowance race for two time winners at Tokyo on 14th May, and finished second in allowance race for two time winners at Chukyo on 18th September. If he re-produces those form on Sunday, I think he has a good chance to finish within first four.

PRIME LINE, who won allowance race for one time winners over the same course and distance as Doncaster Cup on 1st May, is my fifth choice. Although he was beaten ninth in allowance race for two time winners at Chukyo on 21st May, anti-clockwise track did not suit him. This is the first start for him since then and I feel he is not fully tuned up yet, however, I assess he can finish within the first five here.

SELECTIONS: 5. MOZU RICKEY, 9. VASA, 11. METAMORPHOSE, 4. KITANO EXPRESS & 1. PRIME LINE

Disclaimer:

The above content and information are the personal views and/or opinions of each individual writer and do not represent the views of The Hong Kong Jockey Club and/or its subsidiaries (together, the "HKJC"). The content and information are provided by the writers solely for entertainment purpose only, and should not be construed as a suggestion for anyone to place any bet nor should they be taken and/or relied upon as advice of any kind. The above content and information have not been verified, confirmed and/or endorsed by HKJC and HKJC shall not be liable to any person for any loss or damage suffered by such person as a result of any use or reliance of the above content or information.

HKJC shall not be required to give and does not give any warranty, whether express or implied, arising out of or in connection with the content or information. The Club disclaims any responsibility and accepts no liability (whether in tort, contract or otherwise) for any direct or indirect loss of damage arising from any inaccuracies, omission or typographical errors that may be contained therein. The Club also does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for purpose of any such information.