Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Expert Column for Japan Cup (S1-1) (Naohiro Goda)

S1-1     Japan Cup

Field of this year’s Japan Cup includes four European-trained runners and it is truly the international race for the first time in a while. Why do Europeans come back to Tokyo? The main factor behind the scene is the new quarantine facilities located at infield of Tokyo Racecourse. In the past, upon arrival at Japan, international runners were required to have a five-day quarantine at JRA’s Horse Racing School at Shiroi in Chiba Prefecture before moving to Tokyo Racecourse. After the opening of the new quarantine facilities at Tokyo Racecourse, the Europeans who run on Sunday could come straight from the Tokyo International Airport to the Tokyo Racecourse. It is a much easier itinerary for them and I believe they are in top form. If so, I should make much account of their form at their home nation.

I understand the European with the highest profile is ONESTO, representing France, who won G1 Grand Prix de Paris at ParisLongchamp on 14th July. This form should be regarded highly, as third finisher, EL BODEGON, subsequently finished third in G1 Cox Plate, competing against best middle-distance horses in Australia, and fourth finisher, ELDAR ELDAROV, subsequently won G1 St Leger Stakes, final leg of Triple Crown in UK. And I assess his performance in G1 Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown on 10th September, when he finished second beaten by half a length, was also impressive. While ONESTO was beaten 10th in G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at ParisLongchamp on 2nd October, I understand muddy track didn’t suit him. He is by FRANKEL, who has sent three G1 winners in Japan, and I believe ONESTO has inherited suitability to race in Japan from his sire. ONESTO is my favourite.

I judge the best local hope is VELA AZUL, who won a handicap race for three time winners over the same course and distance as Japan Cup on 11th June. I understand this form should be regarded highly, because the second finisher, BREAKUP, subsequently won G2 The Copa Republica Argentina at Tokyo on 6th November. And VELA AZUL himself won G2 Kyoto Daishoten at Hanshin on 10th October by two and a half-length. Although this is the first time for the 5YO horse to compete at the highest level, he is rising like a sky rocket right now and I select VELA AZUL as my second choice.

While SHAHRYAR was disappointing in last two starts, finishing fourth in G1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes and fifth in G1 Tenno Sho Autumn, he is a winner of G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) in 2021 and G1 Dubai Sheema Classic in March 2022. And we shouldn’t forget that he finished third in G1 Japan Cup in 2021. As he re-produces last year’s form on Sunday, I believe he has every chance to finish within first three.

As the form of G1 Grand Prix de Paris should be regarded highly, as I described before, it makes sense to include SIMCA MILLE, who finished second to ONESTO, beaten by neck, in the list of my selection. SIMCA MILLE is my fourth choice.

DANON BELUGA, who finished fourth in G1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby) and third in G1 Tenno Sho Autumn, is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 2. ONESTO, 6. VELA AZUL, 15. SHAHRYAR, 1. SIMCA MILLE & 14. DANON BELUGA

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