 Expert - Naohiro Goda | |
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| Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin. | |
Expert Column for Arima Kinen Day (S1) (Naohiro Goda)
S1-1 2yo Newcomer
My favourite is PERIFANIA. The 2YO filly by MAURICE, who won three G1s in Hong Kong, is half-sister to EFFORIA, who tries to achieve back-to-back win of G1 Arima Kinen at Nakayama on 25th December. She has been trained beautifully at Miho Training Centre since the beginning of December, for example, she clocked 11.5 seconds for final 200m at uphill track on 11th December, and 11.2 seconds for final 200m at uphill track on 18th December. While she is still green and behaves babyish, I assess PERIFANIA must have a bright future and believe she is able to make successful racecourse debut on Sunday.
My second favourite is French-bred DATUM, 2YO colt by HARRY ANGEL out of MONTJEU mare. He has been trained at Miho Training Centre for more than one month and I am impressed that he has been improved every week. I am feeling alertness from his recent morning track works and I am sure he has quick turn of foot. He likes to run and concentrates on running. And I believe the 1,600m turf course at Nakayama is a suitable track for him. I believe DATUM has a good chance to win on Sunday.
My third choice is WIN ELENA, who is half-sister to WIN BRIGHT, winner of G1 Hong Kong Cup and G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup. I am sure the well-bred filly by LORD KANALOA has a very bright future. In other words, she must be better when she is 3YO in 2023. As Nakayama was the favourite track for WIN BRIGHT, I believe WIN ELENA should be able to handle the track at Nakayama. And I feel she has a good sense as an athlete.
My fourth choice is RED SCHWERT by RED FALX, who completed a back-to-back win of G1 Sprinters Stakes at Nakayama. The grey colt was breezed twice at Wood Course for 1,000m and clocked quicker than 67.0 seconds on both occasions. Even during those fast work, he is relaxed and enjoys running. He is very straightforward and easy to handle.
My fifth choice is COSTA NOVA, 2YO colt by LORD KANALOA. To be frank, he is still immature physically. On the other hand, he is very keen to run and shows a lot of fighting spirit. I assess COSTA NOVA is able to finish within the first five here.
SELECTIONS: 10. PERIFANIA, 2. DATUM, 6. WIN ELENA, 8. RED SCHWERT & 4. COSTA NOVA
S1-2 3yo and up 1 win
My favourite is KAZU LAPONIAN. MORYANA, who won 2YO Newcomer at Tokyo on 5th June and Cosmos Sho at Sapporo on 13th August, is half-sister to KAZU LAPONIAN. While KAZU LAPONIAN made a successful racecourse debut at Hakodate on 24th July 2021, the 3YO colt by HENNY HUGHES has not won a race since then. However, he wore sheepskin cheek pieces in the last two starts and his performance were better. He has been trained better than ever in the morning, and I believe KAZU LAPONIAN will run better than ever on Sunday.
My second favourite is FOR ONESELF, who finished second at the class for one time winners on 10th December over the same course and distance as this race. While the 3YO colt by PYRO prefers light sand course, current sand at Nakayama is not so light. However, competition in this races is not so strong and I believe FOR ONESELF is able to finish within the first two here.
My third choice is SEI GEN who is by ESPOIR CITY out of KUROFUNE mare. He won a maiden race at Nakayama on 12th March by seven lengths, which was very impressive. Therefore, his recent two starts seems to be disappointing and I think his condition was not so well in the last two starts. He has been trained much better recently and I think he has regained his top form now.
My fourth choice is DELICIEUX REINE. She is a typical closer who has very strong late kick. She clocked the fastest or second fastest or third fastest in all runners for the final 600m in last six races in a row. The 4YO filly by SINISTER MINISTER finished third in an allowance race for one time winner at Niigata on 16th October, and she should have a good chance to finish within first four if she re-produces this form on Sunday.
My fifth choice is SEYCHELLES NO YUHI. He was gelded after the race on 19th June and his performance has improved since then, finishing within the first four in three starts. He clocked 37.6 seconds for final 600m, which was the fastest in 15 runners in an allowance race for one time winner at Nakayama on 2nd October and clocked 39.2 seconds for final 600m, which was the fastest in 9 runners, in an allowance race for one time winner at Niigata on 22nd October. I reckon he is capable to finish within the first five here.
SELECTIONS: 9. KAZU LAPONIAN, 14. FOR ONESELF, 4. SEI GEN, 16. DELICIEUX REINE & 2. SEYCHELLES NO YUHI
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 9. KAZU LAPONIAN
Selections – 14. FOR ONESELF, 4. SEI GEN, 16. DELICIEUX REINE & 2. SEYCHELLES NO YUHI
S1-3:
Banker – 15. NILKANTA TESORO
Selections – 9. NATURE CURREN, 14. MY STAGE, 12. SEIUN HARUKANI & 1. IVORY DRESS
S1-3 Toji Tokubetsu
Toji Tokubetsu is a stakes race for two time winning 3YO and upper over 1,200m on dirt and the most difficult race to prefigure in seven races at Nakayama on 25th December.
My favourite is NILKANTA TESORO, a Japanese-bred 5YO horse by SPEIGHTSTOWN, who finished second in an allowance race at Chukyo on 4th December. He finished third in an allowance race for two time winners at Sapporo on 30th July and MUSIQUE, the second finisher in that race, won an allowance race for two time starters in her next start. From those form, I assess NILKANTA TESORO has the ability to graduate this class. And I believe 1,200m dirt track at Nakayama is the course where he can show himself at his best, as he has finished second twice there.
NATURE CURREN, who finished third in an allowance race for two time winners at Hanshin on 27th November, is my second choice. The 5YO horse by CURREN BLACK HILL has strong late kick and covered the final 600m for the fastest or second fastest time in recent five races in a row. In other words, NATURE CURREN delivers strong challenge on homestretch, regardless the pace of race. And he won an allowance race for one time winners on 11th September over the same course and distance as Toji Tokubetsu.
My third choice is MY STAGE, who finished within the first three in her last four starts at the class for two time winners, including last start on 3rd December over the same course and distance as Toji Tokubetsu. Although the 4YO filly by STORMING HOME has collected two wins at anti-clockwise tracks and not won at Nakayama, she started there for eight times, finished second twice and third for three times. I believe those statistics show MY STAGE handles the track at Nakayama well. She finished third in an allowance race for two time winners at Tokyo on 15th October and the winner of that race was REVES LIEN, who would subsequently start twice in allowance race for three time winners and finished second in both races. I believe MY STAGE has the ability to compete well in this class.
SEIUN HARUKANI, who won allowance race for one time winners on 4th December over the same course and distance as Toji Tokubetsu, is my fourth choice. The performance of the 3YO colt by BAGO, has improved significantly since he started to run without sheepskin cheek pieces in allowance race at Nakayama on 25th September, when he finished second. And 1,200m dirt track at Nakayama is his favourite track, as he started here for five times, won two of them and finished second once. Though this is the first time for him to compete in this class, I judge he has a chance to finish within the first four here.
IVORY DRESS is my fifth choice. While she was well beaten in an allowance race at Tokyo on 15th October last time out, her morning track work at Miho Training Centre on 14th December was very impressive and I believe she will run much better on Sunday.
SELECTIONS: 15. NILKANTA TESORO, 9. NATURE CURREN, 14. MY STAGE, 12. SEIUN HARUKANI & 1. IVORY DRESS
S1-4 Goodluck Handicap
Goodluck Handicap is a stakes race for two time winning 3YO and upper over 2,500m on turf, which is over the same course and distance as Arima Kinen.
My favourite is DREAM IMPACT. The 6YO horse by DEEP IMPACT finished fourth in allowance race for two time winners at Tokyo on 12th November, although it was the first start for him since 30th April. As L’EVANGILE, winner of that allowance race, finished third in an allowance race for three time winners in his next start, the form of that allowance race should be regarded highly. DREAM IMPACT won an allowance race over 2,600m at Fukushima last year, and I believe the trip of 2,500m here is more suitable for him than 1,800m. And it is encouraging that Christophe Lemaire is booked for him on Sunday.
I expect Sakae Kunieda, the leading trainer based at Miho Training Centre, occupies first and second spot in Goodluck Handicap and my second choice is MAWSON PEAK. The 5YO horse by DEEP IMPACT is a stabilizing force in the class for two time winners, as he started for six times at this class since September 2021 and finished within the first three in five of them. While he has not won a race at Nakayama, he started there for four times, finished second twice, and third once. I believe Nakayama is the track where he can show his best. Tom Marquand is booked for MAWSON PEAK on Sunday and it is a favourable factor.
My third favourite is also the son of DEEP IMPACT, called RED VALIENTE, who finished second in a handicap for two-time winners at Hanshin on 22nd October, although it was the first start for him at this class. IMPRESS, winner of that race, won a stakes race for three-time winners in the next start, and I understand we should regard the form of that handicap race highly. He had minor training setback since last start, luckily he resumed full training shortly and has been trained well in the last two weeks.
My fourth choice is also the son of DEEP IMPACT by coincidence. CITE FLORALE finished fourth in his last start, the allowance race for two time winners, at Tokyo on 27th November, and I think it was a good effort, as it was the first start for him since 29th May. While he has not won at Nakayama yet, he is a horse to track front runners from second to fourth position, and I have a feeling that Nakayama is a suitable track for him.
SUCCESS SHOOT, who started at turf track of Nakayama twice and won both of them, is my fifth choice. Although he has not run since 17th September, his morning track work at Miho Training Centre on 14th December, when he breezed for 1,200m and clocked 82.5 seconds, was impressive.
SELECTIONS: 15. DREAM IMPACT, 1. MAWSON PEAK, 3. RED VALIENTE, 2. CITE FLORALE & 7. SUCCESS SHOOT
S1-5 2022 Farewell Stakes
2022 Farewell Stakes for three time winning 3YO and upper is conducted at 1,200m dirt course.
My favourite is JIGEN, who has started nine times at this class so far this year and finished within the first three in seven of them, including a stakes race for three-time winners at Hanshin on 3rd December. It is obvious that the 5YO horse by INTO MISCHIEF is the most consistent runner in the field of 2022 Farewell Stakes. JIGEN finished second over 1,200m on dirt at Hanshin on 3rd April, and the winner of that race, SHAMAL, who subsequently won three domestic Graded Stakes and finished fifth in G1 Champions Cup at Chukyo on 4th December. I assess JIGEN should have a good chance to win 2022 Farewell Stakes if he runs his race on Sunday.
I understand a horse to beat for JIGEN in 2022 Farewell Stakes is another American-bred LINCOLN TESORO, who finished second in an allowance race for three time winners on 2nd October over the same course and distance as this race. 1,200m dirt track at Nakayama is the favourite track for the 4YO colt by CARPE DIEM, as he collected all three wins over this course and distance. While he was beaten fifth over 1,300m at Tokyo on 30th October in his last start, which is not his favourite track, he finished within 0.1 seconds from the second finisher and it was not a bad performance. And his morning track work at Miho Training Centre on 14th December, when he was breezed for 1,200m and clocked 83.7 seconds, was impressive.
My third choice is GOLD LAGOON. Although the 6YO horse by GOLD ALLURE was beaten tenth in his last start at Fukushima on 6th November, it was the first start for him since 23rd January and it is obvious that he needed the race. GOLD LAGOON finished second in a handicap race for three time winners over the same course and distance as this race in January and I assess he should have the ability to compete well in this class. I judge GOLD LAGOON should run much better on Sunday than his previous start.
REVES LIEN, who finished second in two allowance race on 30th October and 26th November, both of them are for three time winners at Tokyo, is my fourth choice. While her form suggests the 4YO filly by REAL IMPACT prefers anti-clockwise tracks, I believe she can handle the track at Nakayama and should have a good chance to finish within the first four here.
TAIKI SWORD, who finished third in an allowance race for three-time winners over 1,200m at Hanshin on 3rd December, in which JIGEN finished second, is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 9. JIGEN, 5. LINCOLN TESORO, 4. GOLD LAGOON, 16. REVES LIEN & 2. TAIKI SWORD
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 9. JIGEN
Selections – 5. LINCOLN TESORO, 4. GOLD LAGOON, 16. REVES LIEN & 2. TAIKI SWORD
S1-6:
Banker – 7. EFFORIA
Selections – 13. TITLEHOLDER, 16. DEEP BOND, 9. EQUINOX & 5. GERALDINA
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 9. JIGEN, 5. LINCOLN TESORO & 4. GOLD LAGOON
S1-6: Multiple – 7. EFFORIA, 13. TITLEHOLDER & 16. DEEP BOND
S1-7: Multiple – 2. ISN'T SHE LOVELY, 6. SAIYA DANCER & 10. Y'ALL
S1-6 Arima Kinen
“Lazarus” type of dramatic comeback was seen at several running of G1 Arima Kinen in the past. For example, in 1990, OGURI CAP won Arima Kinen after well beaten both in G1 Tenno Sho Autumn and G1 Japan Cup, and it was described as one of the greatest comebacks in sports history in Japan. TOKAI TEIO won Arima Kinen in 1993, which was the first start for him since Arima Kinen in 1992. And GRASS WONDER, Japanese Champion Juvenile in 1997, won Arima Kinen in 1998 following well beaten both in G2 Mainichi Okan and G2 Copa Republica Argentina.
A horse who is watching for making a dramatic comeback in the field of this year’s Arima Kinen is EFFORIA. The 4YO colt by EPIPHANEIA won three G1 races, including G1 Arima Kinen twelve months ago, and was awarded as Japanese Horse of the Year in 2021. It was expected that EFFORIA would dominate the racing scene in 2022, however, EFFORIA lost his form abruptly as he turned to 4YO. He was beaten 9th in G1 Osaka Hai in April and 6th in G1 Takarazuka Kinen in June. And then, he disappeared from the front line. EFFORIA spent easy time at Northern Farm in Hokkaido where he was born and moved to Tenei Branch of Northern Farm to resume full training in October. He returned to stable of Yuichi Shikato in Miho Training Centre on 30th November and has been trained for Arima Kinen since then. He was breezed for 1,200m with Takeshi Yokoyama on saddle and clocked 83.4 seconds on 14th December. I have an impression that EFFORIA has regained his top form and decided to select him as my favourite for Arima Kinen.
The horse to beat for EFFORIA is TITLEHOLDER, who won G1 Tenno Sho Spring and G1 Takarazuka Kinen earlier this year, and holds rating of 124, the highest in 16 runners in Arima Kinen. He is the only runner with speed in the field and I expect the 4YO colt by DURAMENTE to control the race at the front with his own pace.
DEEP BOND was beaten 14th in G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in 2021 and bounced back in Arima Kinen in 2021, finishing second to EFFORIA. The 5YO horse by KIZUNA was beaten 18th in G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe last time out, and I believe he is able to bounce back again in Arima Kinen. Ryuji Okubo comments that DEEP BOND is trained better at Ritto training Centre than he was twelve month ago.
EQUINOX, winner of G1 Tenno Sho Autumn who holds rating of 123, the second highest in the field, is my fourth choice. While he is arguably the best 3YO in the field, I have a feeling from his past performances that he prefers Tokyo Racecourse and Nakayama is not his favourite track.
GERALDINA, winner of G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup at Hanshin on 13th November, who is out of GENTILDONNA, winner of Arima Kinen in 2014, is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 7. EFFORIA, 13. TITLEHOLDER, 16. DEEP BOND, 9. EQUINOX & 5. GERALDINA
S1-7 Candle Light Sho
Candle Light Sho is a stakes race for two time winning 3YO and upper over 1,200m on turf.
My favourite is ISN'T SHE LOVELY, who finished second in allowance race for two time winners on 3rd December over the same course and distance as this race. In fact, the 4YO filly by DEEP IMPACT had been running the races beyond 1,500m since she made a racecourse debut in December 2020 and collected two wins from 13 starts. The allowance race for two-time winners on 3rd December was the first opportunity for ISN'T SHE LOVELY to run the race over 1,200m and I am impressed with the performance. She was settled at 15th position in 16 runners field and delivered the strongest challenge on homestretch, covering final 600m for 33.7 seconds, which was the quickest in 16 runners. BLOOMIN’ BAR, dam of ISN'T SHE LOVELY, is winner of 7 races, all of which are 1,200m, and I am convinced she inherits quick speed from her dam. I believe she has a good chance to win Candle Light Sho.
One of the most consistent runners in the field is SAIYA DANCER, who has finished second at the class for two time winners for three times, including allowance race at Hanshin on 4th December. If the 5YO horse by BEHKABAD re-produces those form on Sunday, I believe he should have a good chance to finish within the first two. While SAIYA DANCER has not won at turf course of Nakayama, he won allowance race for one time winners over 1,200m on dirt at Nakayama and finished fourth in an allowance race for two time winners over the same course and distance as this race. From those forms, I judge he can run his race at 1,200m turf course of Nakayama.
Y'ALL and BANDERUOLA, who finished third and fourth in allowance race on 3rd December over the same course and distance as this race, in which ISN'T SHE LOVELY finished second, is my third and fourth choice for Candle Light Sho. The allowance race was the first start for both of them to compete against two time winners and first start since August. Therefore, I assess their performance in the allowance race should be regarded highly, and they have a good chance to hit the board on Sunday.
My fifth choice is SHARK SPOT, who finished third in allowance race for two time winners at Hanshin on 26th November. In fact, the 4YO colt by DANON SHARK had been running the races on dirt and the allowance race on 26th November was the first start on turf for him since March 2021. He clocked 1 minute and 8.4 seconds at 1,200m turf course at Hanshin, which is quicker than the standard time, and I judge he is able to act well on turf.
SELECTIONS: 2. ISN'T SHE LOVELY, 6. SAIYA DANCER, 10. Y'ALL, 12. BANDERUOLA & 15. SHARK SPOT
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