 Expert - Jack Milner | |
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| Veteran journalist Jack Milner has been involved in horseracing since 1972. From then on he followed the sport closely so in 2006 when he was offered the position with Phumelela Gaming & Leisure as Managing Editor of their Publishing Department, he jumped at the chance. He is also instrumental in sending tips and previews to international customers who subscribe to South African racing. Milner is known to be an astute studier of form who reads a race very well. He is one of the leading tipsters in the country where he has a big following. He has attended international events such as the English Derby and Oaks, Royal Ascot and the Melbourne Cup. | |
Expert Column for Met Day (S1) (Jack Milner)
S1-4 Majorca Stakes
Only six runners are carded to go to post for this G1 race over 1,600m but that is mainly due to CAPTAIN’S RANSOM taking her place again. This 5YO mare is chasing her third successive victory in this race which would take her G1 tally to seven. This remarkable daughter of Captain Al has won 13 of her 17 starts. She was named Equus Horse Of The Year in 2022. Her record at Kenilworth is equally impressive with seven wins and two second places from nine starts. This is her best distance and under the weight-for-age Justin Snaith’s charge is the best bet on the card.
DESERT MIRACLE has always been highly regarded by trainer Mike de Kock but she is not the easiest of rides. Her main problem is that she has a habit of losing ground at the start. She will be running on late but by the time she gets going, the bird – or in this case CAPTAIN’S RANSOM will have flown.
SILVER DARLING is another from the Snaith yard and is another G1 winner. She won the G1 Woolavington 2000 at Greyville last season and did well when third behind MAKE IT SNAPPY and CAPTAIN’S RANSOM in the G1 Paddock Stakes over 1,800m on 7 January. Over 200m less she has little chance of reversing the form.
CHANSONETTE won the G1 Cape Fillies Guineas in 2021 and was just touched off by CAPTAIN’S RANSOM in this race last year. However, she had a setback and has been the same since.
CIAO BELLA looks a talented 3YO who finished second in the G1 Cape Fillies Guineas last month. However, at this stage of her career 1,600m seems to be a touch far.
SELECTIONS: 3. CAPTAIN’S RANSOM, 2. DESERT MIRACLE, 4. SILVER DARLING & 5. CHANSONETTE
S1-5 MR 74 Handicap
As is the case with so many handicaps, this race looks quite open but trainer Justin Snaith has five runners and three of them have very strong winning claims.
One tends to look at riding arrangements in cases like this and as Richard Fourie is the first-choice jockey, one would expect NEVADA KING to be the stable elect. On collateral form he does look the runner to beat after his last race. In that event over 1,600m at Kenilworth, NEVADA KING finished a 1.45 lengths fourth behind FUTURE SWING. However, he did seem to falter towards the finish and the drop to 1,400m should be right up his street. Two runs back, he did win his maiden over this track and trip. The main concern is his wide draw. Generally draws at Kenilworth are not always that relevant but over 1,400m they have just over 150m before they reach the sweeping turn and Fourie will need to get his mount well placed very quickly.
In his last race, stable companion FUTURE TURN finished just 0.4 lengths behind NEVADA KING and FUTURE TURN has the advantage of jumping from gate 1. He has been campaigning over further but when he came back after having been gelded, FUTURE TURN won his maiden over 1,000m. This, however, could now found 1,400m a touch sharp.
But it is worth noting that Piere Strydom, who rode FUTURE TURN last time, has opted to ride GIMME MORE TIME, another runner he rode last time. GIMME MORE TIME has run well over this distance and last time took off late to produce the fastest 400m to finish. This 3YO son of GIMMETHEGREENLIGHT is also well drawn, at gate 3, and with Strydom taking the ride, GIMME MORE TIME could be the main threat to NEVADA KING.
BARDOLINO is an interesting runner in that he actually beat GIMME MORE TIME in September. However, that run was at Durbanville, a course that doesn’t suit the running style of many horses due to the undulating straight. BARDOLINO, trained by Brett Crawford, was gelded prior to his last run and could show improvement second time out, especially as he jumps from gate 2.
WINTER AIR is another who could find this trip too short but based on his good draw, and the engagement of S’manga Khumalo, he could contest the finish.
SELECTIONS: 13. NEVADA KING, 3. GIMME MORE TIME, 1. FUTURE TURN, 2. BARDOLINO & 4. WINTER AIR
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 13. NEVADA KING
Selections – 3. GIMME MORE TIME, 1. FUTURE TURN, 2. BARDOLINO & 4. WINTER AIR
S1-6:
Banker – 5. THE ABDICATOR
Selections – 1. GOLDEN SICKLE, 12. GOLDEN TATJANA, 14. FIRST ORIGIN & 15. DUMBLEDORE
S1-6 Summer Juvenile Stakes
This race is for 2YOs and there are many runners who have only raced once, and only managed to finish in the places. Second time out they are subject to major improvement and that makes this event difficult to assess.
Having said that, the word is out that trainer Brett Crawford has a real “bomb” in THE ABDICATOR. This Irish-bred son of NO NAY NEVER made his debut over 1,000m at Kenilworth just two weeks ago. The money poured on to him and the result was never in doubt. He hopped out to the front from the off and won easing up by two lengths. There is a lot of excitement around the ability of this youngster and based on that he is a confident choice to win again. The additional 100m this time should not be an obstacle. Luyolo Mxothwa, who has been in fine form this season, takes the ride once again.
Justin Snaith has four runners and the stable elect appears to be GOLDEN SICKLE, the mount of Richard Fourie. Like THE ABDICATOR, GOLDEN SICKLE found massive betting support on debut and also ran out an easy winner. This daughter of VERCINGETORIX will have the benefit of about 5.5lbs sex allowance and that makes her a lively contender.
GOLDEN TATJANA is another filly who appears to have some ability and she has raced twice. Glen Kotzen’s charge went off at 14-1 when third on debut but did find some support in her second start, which she won by 0.4 lengths. Four of those she defeated on that occasion will line up in this race.
FIRST ORIGIN is an interesting runner. Port Elizabeth trainers have had some success in this race and last year was won by CLIFF TOP, a runner from the Eastern Cape. This WHAT A WINTER colt needs to be considered for all bets.
DUMBLEDORE is beautifully bred and is another who won on debut. It could be worth keeping an eye on the betting and watch for any significant support.
SELECTIONS: 5. THE ABDICATOR, 1. GOLDEN SICKLE, 12. GOLDEN TATJANA, 14. FIRST ORIGIN & 15. DUMBLEDORE
S1-7 Gold Rush
This non-black type race for 3YOs carries the biggest prize money on the day with R5 million going to the winner. All horses are allotted 132lbs with around 5.5lbs sex allowance for fillies. As a result, there are some runners who look more hopeful than anything else while there are a few well-performed horses who stand out.
Topping that list is ROYAL AUSSIE. The son of ROYAL MO has raced seven times for two wins and four places. His most recent performance is the run that makes him favourite to win this event. He raced in the G1 Cape Guineas and finished fourth behind the country’s top 3YO CHARLES DICKENS. Although beaten 6.35 lengths, the winning distance was 4.25 lengths which puts ROYAL AUSSIE just two lengths behind second-placed COUSIN CASEY who will be running in the G1 The Met. A repeat of that performance will make ROYAL AUSSIE very hard to beat. Once again, it is Justin Snaith teaming up with jockey Richard Fourie.
WINTER GREETING is from the Sean Tarry yard and is unbeaten in three starts. This is a jump in class for this filly but she could have a lot more to come. She also has the benefit of about 5.5lbs sex allowance.
KING REGENT has raced three times for two wins and a second place. Glen Kotzen’s runner also has the advantage of having raced, and beaten, older horses. Jockey Grant van Niekerk has stuck with him and he has the benefit of barrier 3.
TIME FO ORCHIDS is the best-weighted runner and this filly has contested a number of feature races. While she has performed well over 1,100m and 1,400m, TIME FO ORCHIDS has finished unplaced in both of her starts over 1,600m. In addition, she has to jump from a wide draw.
SEE IT AGAIN is an interesting runner. He won the Listed Model Man Mile at Greyville in Durban and has had one run since arriving in Cape Town. While he finished unplaced, this three-parts brother to DO IT AGAIN, who runs in The Met, was just given the opportunity by trainer Michael Roberts to get the feel of the course.
SELECTIONS: 8. ROYAL AUSSIE, 11. WINTER GREETING, 3. KING REGENT, 15. TIME FO ORCHIDS & 7. SEE IT AGAIN
S1-8 Cape Flying Championship
All eyes will be on the Sean Tarry-trained PRINCESS CALLA, who will be aiming for a fifth consecutive win in a Graded event. Although officially a Highveld-based horse, 10 of her 17 career runs have been at Kenilworth, where she has recorded four of her seven career victories. The 5YO mare obviously loves the track and is the runner to beat. With jockey Gavin Lerena retaining the ride after steering her to her last two victories, the combination will be hot favourites. But it definitely won’t be a one-horse race.
ALESIAN CHIEF, a 4YO colt by VERCINGETORIX, also boasts a G1 victory on his resume and looks the biggest danger. Corrie Lensley’s charge produced a big run in his seasonal debut at the Vaal over this distance when carrying 137lbs. He was beaten just 0.15-lengths by highly rated BIG BURN, who was carrying around 14lbs less, in a Pinnacle Stakes. Muzi Yeni knows him well and has been in the irons on ten occasions, winning four and finishing runner-up in another four.
The lightly raced 4YO ISIVUNGUVUNGU from Peter Muscutt’s yard is another with winning credentials. The gelding was pipped at the post in his warm-up run over course and distance on King’s Plate Day and now that he has had a taste of the Kenilworth track, a big run is expected. He also has the benefit of the world-renowned Christophe Soumillon in the saddle again.
RESONATE, who finished just 0.2 lengths behind ISIVUNGUVUNGU in that run, is 4lbs better off this time round and could reverse the form. Trained by Candice Bass-Robinson, RESONATE takes his first shot at a G1 event. Usually one of the fastest finishers, he is expected to fly over the last 400m.
Judged on the way Dean Kannemeyer’s GIMME A PRINCE won the G2 Cape Merchants over 1,200m at Kenilworth end of last year, suggests he could be the surprise package dropping down to 1,000m for the first time in his career. The only concern is whether Keagan de Melo can get this GIMMETHEGREENLIGHT gelding going earlier. In his rather short career to date, he has relied heavily on his blistering turn of foot in the final stages, but in this field, he must not be left with too much to do at the end.
SELECTIONS: 16. PRINCESS CALLA, 5. ALESIAN CHIEF, 1. ISIVUNGUVUNGU, 14. RESONATE & 2. GIMME A PRINCE
2nd DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-8:
Banker – 16. PRINCESS CALLA
Selections – 5. ALESIAN CHIEF, 1. ISIVUNGUVUNGU, 14. RESONATE & 2. GIMME A PRINCE
S1-9:
Banker – 2. MAKE IT SNAPPY
Selections – 4. JET DARK, 6. KOMMETDIEDING, 14. COUSIN CASEY & 5. SPARKLING WATER
S1-9 The Met
In 2018 Justin Snaith 3YO filly OH SUSANNA in the G1 The Met over 2,000m and with just 113lbs to carry became the first 3YO filly to win this race in more than 100 years.
Trainer Brett Crawford will be looking to emulate that feat when he sends out MAKE IT SNAPPY in this year’s race at Kenilworth on Saturday.
This daughter of DYNASTY has been a revelation. She was narrowly beaten on debut but has since reeled off four successive victories. Included in those are the G1 SA Fillies Guineas over 1,600m and the G1 Paddock Stakes over 1,800m where she beat last year’s winner and Horse-Of-The-Year CAPTAIN’S RANSOM. She is a natural front runner and still has enough in store to give a second kick halfway up the straight. She is perfectly drawn at barrier 2 and with the traditional “Cape Crawl” likely to prevail, MAKE IT SNAPPY could get a soft lead. The extra 200m should not be a problem and with just 113lbs and log-leading jockey Keagan de Melo on her back, MAKE IT SNAPPY will prove very hard to beat.
Last year KOMMETDIEDING and JET DARK finished first and second respectively and both will be competitive again. However, they have met three times since and JET DARK has had the edge on all three occasions. As a result, Justin Snaith’s charge could well have the advantage again. The son of TRIPPI seems to get better with age and has in-form Richard Fourie in the irons.
KOMMETDIEDING has not won a race since last year’s The Met. He tried to contest a couple of feature races in Johannesburg but did not appear to adapt to the altitude. He then travelled to Durban for the winter season where he ran well but also failed to find the winner’s enclosure. However, he is now back home in the Western Cape, and after a well-deserved rest, the old KOMMETDIEDING seems to be back. He ran second in a warm-up over 1,200m and then finished within first four in two runs over 1,600m. He is better over 2,000m and with Gavin Lerena back in the irons it will be a surprise if he does not fight out the finish.
Another interesting runner is 3YO colt COUSIN CASEY. This Glen Kotzen-trained runner was named Champion 2YO colt last season and has run well in his two runs as a 3YO. The son of VERCINGETORIX won the G2 Cape Punters Cup over 1,600m and then contested the G1 Cape Guineas but proved no match for star 3YO CHARLES DICKENS. COUSIN CASEY is likely to prefer this distance and could give the more established runners a run for their money. The only concern is that he has yet to race outside his own age group.
Another runner to consider is Mike de Kock-trained SPARKLING WATER. She won the G1 Durban July and had a number of these runners behind her. However, even with around 5.5lbs sex allowance, SPARKLING WATER has a lot to do at the weights but is not without a chance.
SELECTIONS: 2. MAKE IT SNAPPY, 4. JET DARK, 6. KOMMETDIEDING, 14. COUSIN CASEY & 5. SPARKLING WATER
S1-10 Western Cape Stayers
It is an undeniable fact that South Africa does not have a rich history when it comes to stayers or races for the marathon-runners. In fact, there is not a single G1 or G2 race over 3,000m or further in this country. A handful of G3 races over 3,000m or further is the best on offer, so from a stakes point of view, there is very little incentive for owners to aim for the long-distance events. Traditionally, stayers races are at least two miles (3,200m) in distance, but here in South Africa anything from 2,400m and further is regarded as a stayers event.
The G2 Western Cape Stayers over 2,800m sees some of the best long-distance runners lining up to challenge for the R296,875 (around HKD136,000) winner’s cheque, but only three have really performed with distinction over this distance category. NEBRAAS (five wins from seven runs over the distance category), SILVER HOST (three wins from six runs), and CROME YELLOW (four wins from 13 runs) are the tried and tested runners here and it is expected that they will be playing the leading roles, together with SENSO UNICO and ARCTIC DRIFT.
A four-time G3 winner, NEBRAAS had plenty left in the tank when finishing 1.15-lengths behind RASCALLION in his prep run over 1,800m when getting his first sight of the Kenilworth course. The 6YO trained by Sean Tarry looks the one to beat.
Runner-up in this race two years ago, SILVER HOST showed a lot of ring-rust in that same race, that was only the second race for him in more than a year. Perhaps Justin Snaith’s charge could have done with another leg-stretcher.
CROME YELLOW, the oldest runner in the field at eight, showed he still has lots to offer when winning the G3 Chairman’s Cup over 2,500m at Kenilworth . He could follow up for trainer Andre Nel in his fourth attempt in this race.
Second to CROME YELLOW in the Chairman’s Cup, SENSO UNICO produced a very strong late effort. That run suggests he will relish going 2,800m for the first time in his career. He is definitely in with a chance.
Also trying 2,800m for the first time is ARCTIC DRIFT. Both his last two runs over 2,500m saw him challenge late and he too will enjoy the extra.
SELECTIONS: 6. NEBRAAS, 12. CROME YELLOW, 2. SENSO UNICO, 3. ARCTIC DRIFT & 9. SILVER HOST
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-10: Multiple – 6. NEBRAAS, 12. CROME YELLOW & 2. SENSO UNICO
S1-11: Multiple – 9. KITCHAKAL, 11. VELDSKOEN & 6. POLTERGEIST
S1-12: Multiple – 16. HEAR MY VOICE, 2. STRAWBERRY LIGHT & 17. ELLA’S DELIGHT
S1-11 World Pool The Invitational
In a contest where a case can be made for more than half the field, KITCHAKAL gets the nod in this 1,200m race. This MASTER OF MY FATE-gelding has been in the ring with a few very good middleweights since exiting the maidens at the second time of asking - and he has not been disgraced. In fact, if he had not been asked to go so many rounds, figuratively speaking, he probably would have boasted more knockout victories in his short career.
Dropping down a division and in distance, Duncan Howells’ runner should have enough to score a second career victory. His form looks impeccable. ICE KINGDOM, who ran second to KITCHAKAL when he scored his only win, has gone on to win twice. WINCHESTER MANSION, who beat the selection three runs back, has gone on to contest two G2 events, while WITHOUT QUESTION went on to run second in a G3 race after finishing just 3.15-lengths ahead of KITCHAKAL. Back over 1,200m, and in a Class C contest, Bernard Fayd’Herbe is fancied to steer KITCHAKAL into the winner’s enclosure despite facing a number of formidable foes.
First on the list of challengers is Australian import VELDSKOEN, trained by Brett Crawford and owned by Wayne Kieswetter’s Ridgemont. This 4YO colt has only had two runs, winning second time out, and it is obvious he is a potential stallion in the making should his running career prove as good as the expectations on his shoulders. Crawford, one of the top trainers on the Champion Trainer log currently, and first-choice jockey Luyolo Mxothwa have forged a formidable partnership in recent times, must be respected.
Snaith’s POLTERGEIST has been very inconsistent this season, but his strong late effort last time out suggests he is starting to settle down.
Dean Kannemeyer has secured the services of leading jockey Keagan de Melo for his 3YO gelding USA’S HOPE, despite the pair’s disappointing record when pairing up. Keagan de Melo was aboard USA’S HOPE in his first two runs when beaten a combined over 13 lengths. After his maiden win under Richard Fourie, Keagan de Melo has been recalled as Richard Fourie will be on POLTERGEIST. It must be reiterated though that USA’S HOPE scored his first win after gelding, a move that looks to have done the trick for this son of THE UNITED STATES.
DANCE VARIETY is another with winning credentials. He also drops down in class and will be having his second run after gelding over his best distance for trainer Adam Marcus.
SELECTIONS: 9. KITCHAKAL, 11. VELDSKOEN, 6. POLTERGEIST, 4. USA’S HOPE & 10. DANCE VARIETY
S1-12 MR 74 F&M Handicap
Midnight would have come and gone in Hong Kong by the time the last race is run, but in Cape Town the sun will be setting on a glorious day of racing, with some bettors popping Champagne corks. That is the reality of racing. This MR 74 F&M Handicap is arguably one of the most highly contested events on the day’s race card and, as a ‘lucky last’, could just be the cherry on the cake for brave bettors who side with HEAR MY VOICE.
This daughter of CAPTAIN OF ALL ran out of steam last time out when fancied over this course and distance, but judged on her penultimate, she should feature strongly with maestro Piere Strydom in the saddle. Her maiden victory saw her producing a sustained late run from midfield, while her second win was a pillar-to-post affair – proof that she is not afraid to set the pace, or turn it on when she needs to. And in Strydom she has the most experienced jockey who will undoubtedly make the right decisions at the right time. As a juvenile she also ran second to the highly rated WE'RE JAMMING, who now boasts a MR of 109, compared to her 82. Taking her time to mature, this 3YO trained by Paul Reeves is expected to run a cracker in her third run after a rest.
Justin Snaith’s STRAWBERRY LIGHT should also be right there at the finish, judged on her last two runs. The only concern is that this distance might be a bit sharp as she is not one that gets going quickly.
The Brett Crawford-trained ELLA’S DELIGHT is another with a winning chance. Although fresh out the maidens, her merit rating has been pushed up seven points since the start of the season, so there is no question that she is on the up.
Candice Bass-Robinson’s FLYING FIRST is the daughter of TRIPPI. Followed up her maiden win with a very respectable third-place finish on handicap debut. The concern, however, is that she seemingly does not like to dictate, rather relying on a turn of foot to challenge late. In a race where the pace is expected to be hot, and the field is big, any heavy traffic could see her chances set with sun.
Then there is also COPPER VIEW, daughter of GLOBAL VIEW plays catch-me-if-you-can like she did when winning her maiden, she will be hard to catch. In a field this size, it might be her best strategy.
SELECTIONS: 16. HEAR MY VOICE, 2. STRAWBERRY LIGHT, 17. ELLA’S DELIGHT, 12. FLYING FIRST & 8. COPPER VIEW
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