Expert - Brett Davis

Brett Davis was introduced to Australian Racing by his father back in the early 1980’s when his family became involved in formulating “Thoroughbred Racing Syndications”. Brett worked from 1995 as a Professional Form Analysts and Race Broadcaster with an array of companies throughout most parts of the Australia Racing industry. He currently resides in Adelaide, his hometown in Australia, where he is Chief Thoroughbred Race Caller and Form Analyst for Tabcorp / SkyChannel / RadioTAB. Brett Davis also spent 2 years with the Singapore Turf Club and 13 Racing Seasons with the Hong Kong Jockey Club between 2006 to 2019 as a leading Form Analyst / Race Caller and was the HKJC Chief Race Caller from 2014, calling the last 5 Hong Kong International (Turf World Championships) race meetings and over 50 G1 races. Brett has immense passion for Australian Racing both personally and professionally. With his diverse knowledge and long standing industry relations he’s a valuable asset to racing and it’s enthusiasts.

Expert Column for Lightning Stakes Day (S1) (Brett Davis)

S1-1 Australian Childhood Foundation Trophy

 

BELTORO is in excellent form and should represent great value in the opening race of the day. He thrives on the big spacious track at Flemington and is further suited by it’s long and endless home straight. With plenty of pace out wide he’ll get all the speed he wants whilst saving ground along the rails.

WISHLOR LASS remains unbeaten from three starts and is going to take some running down from up on speed. She’s taking on the boys following a comprehensive win against the girls last start, and is nicely weighted for the occasion. With a good draw and Jamie Kah to ride she’ll be given every opportunity to win a fourth.

SO YOU SEE was a strong winner at Sandown two runs back before finishing down the track last start on soft going. With track conditions expected to be good she can definitely atone for that disappointing run. She’ll do no work from the draw and has a solid turn of foot at her disposal when ready to fire.

This race will be SERIOUS LIAISON’s third race in Australia following two victories at Sha Tin in Hong Kong. He’s a quality animal on his day and worthy of respect in a race of this caliber, despite still appearing below his best. With Blake Shinn to ride he’s worthy of interest.

LYRICAL LAD has excellent statistics at Flemington over the 1,600m and shouldn’t be dismissed to lightly. His two runs back from a spell have been below par but he’s more than capable of turning that form right around. He closes in from down back and the race should be run to suit.

SELECTIONS: 4. BELTORO, 12. WISHLOR LASS, 11. SO YOU SEE, 9. SERIOUS LIAISON & 2. LYRICAL LAD

 

S1-2 The Vanity

 

SEE YOU IN HEAVEN is a high class 3YO filly with G1 winning potential at later stage. The G2 Sandown Guineas winner was dominant against colts and geldings that day and it’s likely that’ll be an easier case here facing her own sex. She was excellent first up when cut down final strides by a horse that was airborne at Morphettville’s Listed race, and is the horse all challengers have to beat.

ROYAL MERCHANT made the trip from Sydney to Melbourne for the G3 Manfred Stakes and produced a career best run. The winner of that race JACQUINOT has since won a G1 which highlights her excellent progressive form. With James McDonald now taking the reign, it’s difficult to envisage a poor performance.

CLIMBING STAR is a highly progressive filly who competed strongly first up in the G3 Manfred Stakes. That form line, as already suggested, is particularly strong for a contest of this depth. Her biggest attribute is a powerful turn of foot which shall be bring her into picture when it’s there to be won.

NUNTHORPE arrives undefeated following her maiden win at Cranbourne and Class 1 win at Sandown in early January. She’s the most interesting runner in this race because she’s trained by Peter G Moody and to be ridden by Jamie Kah. Shall have to be good to handle this steep rise with success and the market movements shall ultimately be the best guide.

QUEEN AIR won her maiden recently at Warrnambool by leading all the way to score. The win was full of merit after working hard to lead before kicking strongly to the post. She’ll need to lift that intensity to a new level today, but there’s every chance she can lead again.

SELECTIONS: 1. SEE YOU IN HEAVEN, 7. ROYAL MERCHANT, 5. CLIMBING STAR, 9. NUNTHORPE & 4. QUEEN AIR

 

S1-3 Talindert Stakes

 

AMUR is raced by the blue of Godolphin and remains undefeated at this stage. The colt by SNITZEL has found the line well to score narrowly on both occasions. He gives the impression he’s looking for longer but the straight 1,100m at Flemington shall be on his side.

MAHARBA makes his debut for new trainer Grahame Begg after a one start career with trainer David Payne. He showed enough, when fourth in the Golden Gift with over million prize money at Rosehill, to suggest he has his fair share of class. His 800m trial leading in was more than satisfactory and he’ll be one of the top chances.

EXTREMELY WICKED has tremendous speed and appears the clear cut leader in this race. Her debut at Moonee Valley was excellent in defeat, against a handy opponent, with a decent gap back to third. She’s draw perfectly outwide for the run down the stretch and shall be giving a very big site.

SCORSESE is on a Blue Diamond path after an encouraging debut at Sandown finishing third. Anything Peter G Moody sends to the races is worthy of respect and no doubt better is to come. With a potential G1 race in line next start he’ll want to be running well today.

HELL QUEEN shall go around over the odds judged on her third place in the G3 Ottawa Stakes. That event’s form can stand up in this contest and she’s worthy of serious thought. She’ll give away a start and is draw awkwardly in one but can find the line better than most.

SELECTIONS: 2. AMUR, 3. MAHARBA, 12. EXTREMELY WICKED, 4. SCORSESE & 13. HELL QUEEN

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-3:   
Banker – 2. AMUR
Selections – 3. MAHARBA, 12. EXTREMELY WICKED, 4. SCORSESE & 13. HELL QUEEN
S1-4:   
Banker – 6. ARRAN BAY
Selections – 4. NOBEL HEIGHTS, 1. HELENE LEADINGSTAR, 10. FIGHTING ARROW & 13. DUKE OF HASTINGS

 

S1-4 Asian Racing Federation Trophy

 

ARRAN BAY is as honest as the day is long and enjoys racing around the big spacious Flemington track. He was recently stepped up in distance to 2,040m and found the line better than most. He can race handy to the lead with his high cruising speed, and is generally always in the hunt for a top five spot.

NOBEL HEIGHTS has found one better at his past four attempts over the longer trips but remains amongst the chances. The drop back in distance could well suit his prospects and I’d expect him to find the line hard and with purpose. The key to his success is a strong pace throughout, which appears a genuine possibility.

HELENE LEADINGSTAR was transferred to Australia from Hong Kong in 2022 and has settled in nicely to his new surroundings. I’m forgetting the run in Randwick and focusing on the effort prior at Sandown over 1,700m, we’re he closed hard over the final 200m. The opposition that day was tougher than he faces here, which suggests he’s going in the right direction.

FIGHTING ARROW should secure a nice position in behind the speed when they eventually settle in to order. With fitness on his side, he’ll thereafter be given every opportunity to work into the race novel and at the perfect time. Blake Shinn knows him well, which is an advantage, in what’s clearly a challenging race.

DUKE OF HASTINGS heads to Flemington for the first time and is a genuine stayer on the rise. How high he’ll go is yet to be advised but both runs back have been sound. Jumping up to the 2,000m is what he wants and he can work himself into the race at the end.

SELECTIONS: 6. ARRAN BAY, 4. NOBEL HEIGHTS, 1. HELENE LEADINGSTAR, 10. FIGHTING ARROW & 13. DUKE OF HASTINGS

 

S1-5 Tony Bourke Memorial

 

WROTE TO ARATAKI is looking at a hat-trick of wins and with the form she’s currently displaying it’s likely to be on the cards. She’s shown tactical versatility in her short career to date, however her two recent wins have been impressively obtain from in front. Dean Yendall takes the ride and if given any leeway she’ll set up and unassailable lead.

EXCELIDA has an outstanding record over 1,400m at Flemington and she’ll be cherry ripe going in second up. She also has an excellent record against her own sex, and previously matched it with some of the best at G1 level. She can raced handy but is better ridden cold, allowing her to cut loose with that reliable finishing speed.

ANNAVISTO rates as the horse to beat following her second place in the G1 Queen of the Turf Stakes at Randwick in early April last year. Since then issues have arisen and she hasn’t been seen as often as connections would’ve ideally hoped. A trial win at Cranbourne recently was exciting to see and she’s proven in the past she can be dangerous first up.

BOOGIE DANCER has drawn ideally for a race over 1,400m and should be given every conceivable chance to win. Her record first up is poor and she’ll have bigger races to win but is a high class individual with scope. Leaving her out is a dangerous game to play considering her record over this journey.

SIRILEO MISS was at the peak of her powers at the end of last campaign and a light spell won’t have absorbed any fitness. A front runner at her best who can take this race on and serve it up to those going in fresh. She’ll be a big price but is worthy of inclusion to exotics.

SELECTIONS: 6. WROTE TO ARATAKI, 3. EXCELIDA, 4. ANNAVISTO, 8. BOOGIE DANCER & 5. SIRILEO MISS

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:   
Banker – 6. WROTE TO ARATAKI
Selections – 3. EXCELIDA, 4. ANNAVISTO, 8. BOOGIE DANCER & 5. SIRILEO MISS
S1-6:   
Banker – 14. ATTRITION
Selections – 5. ELLIPTICAL, 1. MAXIMILLIUS, 4. BANK MAUR & 8. MURAMASA

 

S1-6 CS Hayes Stakes

 

ATTRITION was extremely impressive winning a 1,400m maiden at Sandown before further improving to win a BM64 at Geelong just three weeks ago. The Freedman yard have a high caliber youngster on their hands, and they know it, which is why he’s been entered for this strong G3 race. He’s been ridden with patience but seemingly adaptable to change, and his pedigree says he’ll run all day.

ELLIPTICAL stands alone on ratings as the horse to beat following an incredible 2022 Melbourne/Sydney spring campaign. He was twice placed at G1 level against his own age before taking on the older horses in the G1 VRC Champions Stakes. The 1,400m is his ideal trip at this point of his career and he’ll race handy to the speed, before kicking with purpose to the line.

MAXIMILLIUS has fitness on his side after two runs back and is likely to go around at a nice win/place price. At his only win he lead throughout to score and in the process defeated a number of talented youngsters. His most recent fifth placing behind JACQUINOT in the G3 Manfred Stakes was bold and brave, and if he leads in rhythm he’ll run a big race.

BANK MAUR is another genuine contender following his most recent second place in the G3 Manfred Stakes. The son of MAURICE shall only improve with racing and is ideally looking for more ground. The big spaces at Flemington can help in that respect but there’s a chance he’ll be working hard from an outside draw.

MURAMASA resumes following a G1 Victoria Derby campaign last spring which saw him finishing fifth in that highly coveted 3YO event. The son of DEEP IMPACT won’t be intimidated by this class or distance. His improvement is still to come, but he’s well be above average and worthy of respect.

SELECTIONS: 14. ATTRITION, 5. ELLIPTICAL, 1. MAXIMILLIUS, 4. BANK MAUR & 8. MURAMASA

 

S1-7 Black Caviar Lightning

 

NATURE STRIP returns from his summer spell in fabulous order judged on a Warwick Farm trial and is ready to secure another G1 Black Caviar Lightning trophy. Australia’s champion sprinter and nine time G1 winner has all the stats necessary to win first up and is expected to be the outright favourite. As an 8YO it’s possible he might be slowing down, and with an abundance of speed horses drawn on his outside he’ll be given no peace, but that hasn’t troubled him too much in the past.

COOLANGATTA has the weight advantage as a 3YO filly and she’s all talent and class. After finishing third in the G1 Golden Slipper as a 2YO, she noted up her maiden G1 victory in the Moir Stakes at Moonee Valley over the 1,000m. A blistering 800m trial victory at Cranbourne recently with Jamie Kah aboard was exquisite, and she’s ready to rock and roll.

MARABI won her first seven races before tasting defeat in the G1 William Reid Stakes at the hands of SEPTEMBER RUN. That event was at Moonee Valley in March 2022 and she hasn’t been seen since that race. She’s a short course specialist with blistering high speed and is expected to be right up there for a very long way.

I WISH I WIN is trained and partly owned by Peter G Moody who put the polish on the immortal and undefeated super mare BLACK CAVIAR. All reports disclose that he’s ready to go following a superb lead up barrier trial over 800m behind G1 opponents. With the G1 Newmarket Handicap over 1,200m as his target, this campaign the 1,000m first up might be a fraction sharp. However, I wouldn’t be underestimating his power through the final 200m, particularly if back markers are coming in to play.

ROCH ‘N’ HORSE cut her teeth in New Zealand before winning the G1 Newmarket Handicap at long odds this time last year. That’s her main goal again in a few weeks time but she can run a big race here first up. She proved that victory was no fluke by defeating NATURE STRIP again in the G1 Darley Champions Sprint in November 2022, with that win conducted under set weights. Her liking for the Flemington straight is highlighted by her record so I’d watching out for her over the later stages.

SELECTIONS: 1. NATURE STRIP, 11. COOLANGATTA, 8. MARABI, 2. I WISH I WIN & 6. ROCH ’N’ HORSE

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-7: Multiple – 1. NATURE STRIP, 11. COOLANGATTA & 8. MARABI
S1-8: Multiple – 14. DAYTONA BAY, 11. BIOMETRIC & 13. MUNHAMEK
S1-9: Multiple – 10. D’JUMBUCK, 3. JUNGLE JIM & 5. SACRED PALACE

 

S1-8 HKJC Elms Handicap

 

DAYTONA BAY is touted as a top liner of the future and we’ll learn more about him today. He was heavily back first up and probably should have won but traffic played its part in defeat. He’s terrifically placed, of a light weight and mid range draw, and could easily be taken to the front before leading all the way.

BIOMETRIC is getting better with age and the rising 7YO has sound claims in this wide open contest. Listed company has been about his level over the years with firmer tracks his preferred going. Both recent runs over this exact course and distance have been excellent, just a bit unlucky. I won’t be surprised if he wins.

MUNHAMEK is a former Hong Kong galloper - HALL OF CHAMP, that’s certainly paying his way down under. A narrow defeat last start could have gone either way which highlights his high level of form. He gets in here with a slightly lighter weight which shall only enhance his chance.

SCALLOPINI has only been to Flemington on one occasion and in the process claimed The Sofitel Listed when basically leading all the way. First up at the Gold Coast he settled well back after being checked, but then closed off nicely through the final 200m. He’s right up there with the best on class and can get involved.

CROSSHAVEN is a triple G3 winner at his prime and worthy of excuses in the G3 TS Carlyon Cup run at Sandown. His run in the Listed John Dillon Stakes prior was outstanding when finishing behind the highly talented GENTLEMAN ROY. He’s been up and going without a break for a while, but durable and as honest as you’ll find.

SELECTIONS: 14. DAYTONA BAY, 11. BIOMETRIC, 13. MUNHAMEK, 3. SCALLOPINI & 6. CROSSHAVEN

 

S1-9 World Pool Handicap

 

D’JUMBUCK was superb recently this course and trip when overhauling JUNGLE JIM to win. Conditions are similar for this inform galloper with a case of deja vu a real chance. The outside draw should be perfect by this time of the day and he’s a runner to entertain with confidence.

JUNGLE JIM is building a good horses record and must be given due respect. He rises in class but is a tough nut to crack with his brutal front running tactics and speed. He handles the track, and good surface predicted, and is expected to run a big race.

SACRED PALACE looks primed to run well following two encouraging runs back from a decent break. Damien Oliver has been with him all preparation and the Lindsey Smith stable is literally flying. The speed shall be on, which is just what he wants, and he can join in with purpose to win.

RED HOT NICC shall have the option to go outside rail or in depending on the track conditions at play. Whatever the case, he deserves respect with an excellent record down the straight. Both rider and horse have made a name for themselves of late and that shouldn’t be dampened here today.

STRUCK BY is best when fresh and that’s how he arrives today for his first run in 9 weeks. He’s another powerful front runner that’s ticking over nicely and should give a solid display. A low gate down the straight track doesn’t appear ideal but he’s all heart and genuine hope.

SELECTIONS: 10. D’JUMBUCK, 3. JUNGLE JIM, 5. SACRED PALACE, 7. RED HOT NICC & 1. STRUCK BY

 

 

 

 

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