 Expert - Dick Powell | |
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| Dick Powell has over 35 years working in the horse racing industry and is an international racing and handicapping expert. He worked for AmWest Entertainment and developed easy to use past performances and results charts that included pari-mutuel prices. He also set the morning line for Dubai International Racing Carnival and still does it for the Saudi Cup. | |
Expert Column for Saudi Cup Day (S2) (Dick Powell)
S2-3 Neom Turf Cup
This race starts in front of the finish line and then goes one full lap around the turf course. There is plenty of time for the field to sort itself out before hitting the backstretch and horses with pace have done well in it.
MISSED THE CUT was an even fourth in his career debut then won three races in a row while showing good speed each time. Son of QUALITY ROAD shipped to France and ran poorly on yielding ground at Deauville then came back three months later and won a 2,000m race on the polytrack at Lingfield. His speed will be dangerous in here and will be hard to catch.
She has only had seven starts at 6YO but WHITE MOONLIGHT seems to be on top of her game. The daughter of MEDAGLIA D’ORO just missed in the 3yo+ Conditions at Meydan going 1,400m then she was less than a length short in the G2 Cape Verdi there going 1,600m in very fast time. She comes back on short rest and should be ready for a good effort in the third race of her form cycle.
SIR BUSKER was a game winner of the G2 York Stakes last July on firm ground. He was an even third behind BAAEED and MISHRIFF in the G1 International Stakes in August then came back six months later with a good second on the polytrack at Lingfield going 1,601m in fast time.
MOSTAHDAF was in great form two years ago as a 3YO when he won five times then kicked off last year with a win in the G3 Gordon Richards Stakes off a long layoff. Son of FRANKEL won the G3 September Stakes two starts back at 2,399m on polytrack but fell apart on a soft turf course in the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Freshened up by the Gosdens, he returns against a modest group. My only concern is Shadwell might have bigger plans at Meydan next month and this is a prep for it.
DUBAI FUTURE is a world traveller from Godolphin that is still running well at 7YO. He raced evenly here in the G3 Red Sea Turf Handicap but woke up at long odds with a win at Ascot in the Listed Wolferton Stakes then finished out 2022 with a win in the G3 Bahrain International Trophy going 2,000m. Gelded son of DUBAWI has had two runs at Meydan this year and could be a pace factor in here.
SELECTIONS: 6. MISSED THE CUT, 11. WHITE MOONLIGHT, 9. SIR BUSKER, 7. MOSTAHDAF & 3 DUBAI FUTURE
S2-4 1351 Turf Sprint
This turf sprint is run at 1,351m and begins at the start of the backstretch with a long run into the first turn. Last year’s top five finishers return and should be the ones to beat.
CASA CREED was a heart-breaking second here last year when his furious rally fell a neck short. He won two G1 races after this race – one going 1,200m and one going 1,600m. Regardless, he usually settles off the pace and winds up for one, big run. Last out in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint, he could not overcome post 11 but as he has gotten older, he relaxes until called upon by Luis Saez. He will be easy to spot with his bright pink colors.
Got up in time last year and SONGLINE will try to do it again. Only 5YO, she has earned over HK$29-million in 12 starts. Two starts after last year’s win, she won the G1 Yasuda Kinen going 1,600m in fast time then raced evenly last out at 1,200m. After racing here, to come back with a G1 title shows how genuine she is.
POGO has run at many distances in his long career and was beaten by 3.5 lengths in this race last year. After that, he won two races in a row going 1,400m against G3 company in England. He won the G2 Challenge Stakes at Newmarket then was used hard from post one before weakening in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Mile.
HAPPY ROMANCE showed high speed before being run down here in this race last year. Daughter of DANDY MAN could not handle G1 company going 1,200m in Platinum Jubilee Stakes and July Cup and raced evenly to finish up the season in August. Freshened up by Richard Hannon, she ran well off a similar layoff last year and could be stronger at 5YO.
Inconsistency should not be rewarded, unless the price is right, and LAUDA SION can be a factor on his best effort. He won the G1 NHK Mile Cup three years ago and off a close third in the G2 Hanshin Cup going a similar distance last out and could be sitting on a big race while being overlooked.
SELECTIONS: 2. CASA CREED, 11. SONGLINE, 6. POGO, 9. HAPPY ROMANCE & 4. LAUDA SION
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-4:
Banker – 2. CASA CREED
Selections – 11. SONGLINE, 6. POGO, 9. HAPPY ROMANCE & 4. LAUDA SION
S2-5:
Banker – 1. SUBJECTIVIST
Selections – 2. TRAWLERMAN, 11. ECHT, 7. SILVER SONIC & 3. ENEMY
S2-5 Red Sea Turf Handicap
With a short run into the first of three turns, the field usually strings out and makes it hard to make up ground late. Patient tactics help and a quick turn of foot is necessary to come from far off the pace. Japanese horses do not get many chances at 3,000m so they could be tough in here.
SUBJECTIVIST has not run for over one and a half years but seems to have too much class for these. He has won his last three starts and two of them came against G1 company. Two starts back, he went to Dubai and won the 3,200m easily by 5.8 lengths, then he won the historic G1 Gold Cup by 5 lengths. The son of TEOFILO has missed many big races since then but looks like he will be impossible to run down if allowed to settle into a rhythmic stride.
John Gosden won the second running of the G1 Saudi Cup here with MISHRIFF and he returns for this turf marathon with TRAWLERMAN. Since trying marathons, he had a good win at this distance last August then won the Ebor Handicap which might be the strongest handicap race in the world that is not graded. Son of GOLDEN HORN came back on soft ground to run third last October at Ascot going 3,190m. He does have pace and it will be interesting to see how he is handled at the start.
ECHT only had one win last year and it came at 2,000m when he won the G3 Tanabata Sho in fast time. It is the first time for him to step up to 3,000m but is out of a dam by the legendary DEEP IMPACT who ran the fastest 3,200m in history. Last month, he just missed in the G2 American Jockey Club Cup and will need patient handling to see out the distance.
SILVER SONIC has done his best racing going long distances so today should not be any problem. He was a strong third behind DEEP BOND three starts back, the G2 Hanshin Daishoten, but then lost his rider at the start of the G1 Tenno Sho Spring. Off for seven months, he came back and won a G2 race going longer. The 7YO son of ORFEVRE is out of a stakes winner that has produced three group stakes winners.
Can’t recommend giving too much weight to one race but ENEMY was a sharp winner at Meydan last out going 2,410m in fast time while carrying high weight. In the hands of Ian Williams, he has the look of a 6YO that has been prepped for this.
SELECTIONS: 1. SUBJECTIVIST, 2. TRAWLERMAN, 11. ECHT, 7. SILVER SONIC & 3. ENEMY
S2-6 Saudi Derby
This year’s Derby is a mix among Japanese dirt horses, Japanese turf horses, local dirt horses and a Bob Baffert runner from America. The big field will ensure a demanding pace and the composition of the track surface enables turf horses to run well over it.
MY MAP is undefeated in four starts in Saudi Arabia and has been able to handle the step up in trip each time. Son of LIAM’S MAP romped in his first two career starts going 1,200m at King Khaled then returned here almost four months later and won The Jockey Club Award as much the best. Last out, he won going 1,600m in very good time and only has to make the walkover from the local stables to race. He has handled everything asked of him and will be easy to find as the only grey in the field.
Bob Baffert is usually the top choice in dirt races in the Middle East but HAVNAMELTDOWN has a few flaws despite winning four of five career starts. Baffert is loaded with top sophomore colts this year but he has yet to ask this one to go longer than 1,400m. The son of sprint sire UNCAPTURED is very fast but I question if he has enough pedigree to handle the pace over a track that is much deeper than what he is used to.
CONTINUAR won his career debut on a muddy track in Japan going 1,800m so he has already answered the stamina question. He was a close second next time out on a synthetic track but bounced back last out going 1,600m in fast time. By a former Baffert-trained sprinter DREFONG, he is out of a dam by KING KAMEHAMEHA so there is plenty of stamina on the dam’s side of his pedigree.
After two dull starts to begin his career on the turf, DERMA SOTOGAKE has prospered since switching to the dirt with an improved effort then won two in a row on synthetic tracks at 1,800m. He returned to the dirt last out and won the local G1 Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun by a head against 13 rivals so he has answered the question about getting the trip against a bulky field.
Turf runners can succeed here with the track being fair to their chances. FROM DUSK was a game second going 1,400m in the G2 Keio Hai Nisai Stakes in fast time then was soundly beaten against G1 company. He bounced back some with a good third over 1,400m last out at Tokyo and the son of BOLT D’ORO is bred to be a dirt runner.
SELECTIONS: 13. MY MAP, 12. HAVNAMELTDOWN, 8. CONTINUAR, 9. DERMA SOTOGAKE & 11. FROM DUSK
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-6:
Banker – 13. MY MAP
Selections – 12. HAVNAMELTDOWN, 8. CONTINUAR, 9. DERMA SOTOGAKE & 11. FROM DUSK
S2-7:
Banker – 4. GUNITE
Selections – 1. DANCING PRINCE, 2. ELITE POWER, 6. MERAAS & 9. RYUNO YUKINA
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-6: Multiple – 13. MY MAP, 12. HAVNAMELTDOWN & 8. CONTINUAR
S2-7: Multiple – 4. GUNITE, 1. DANCING PRINCE & 2. ELITE POWER
S2-8: Multiple – 10. TAIBA, 2. COUNTRY GRAMMER & 1. CAFE PHAROAH
S2-7 Riyadh Dirt Sprint
This year’s renewal has last year’s winner and the winner of the G1 Breeders’ Cup Sprint among others in a select field. Speed dominated last year but part of that was the bigger field resulted in lots of traffic problems going into the turn. Today’s field could yield a truer run race.
GUNITE appears to be better suited for 1,400m than today’s 1,200m but he should be the strong horse in the stretch. The son of GUN RUNNER even tried 1,600m two starts back in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile when he pressed a fast pace before tiring. His prep for this was an easy win on a sloppy track at Oaklawn Park in very fast time. He has tremendous cruising speed which will keep him in touch with the pace and make his move the winning one.
Last year’s winner DANCING PRINCE is back for more and looks like he has not slowed down at the age of seven. The Japanese entire romped here last year by almost six lengths but I have to question the strength of that field. This year’s renewal looks much deeper but it won’t matter if he is able to dominate on the front again. There is a relatively short run into the first turn and another alert start makes him the horse to catch.
It took ELITE POWER four starts to win his first race but he did it with style going 1,400m in brilliant time. After two easy wins, he stepped up to stakes company and won the G2 Vosburgh Stakes on a deep, tiring track going 1,400m. Last out, he came from far back to win the G1 Breeders’ Cup Sprint going 1,200m and has a devastating turn of foot when unleashed at the right time. Son of CURLIN is bred to run much farther but William Mott has found a home for him as a closing sprinter.
MERAAS won two dirt starts in a row last season at Meydan including a sharp win in the G3 Al Shindagha Sprint. Off for over six months, he made his American debut at Saratoga where he set a demanding pace before being run down by none other than ELITE POWER who went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. After being bumped hard in the G3 Bold Ruler Stakes, he bounced back with an easy win in fast time last out and should be involved in the early pace.
RYUNO YUKINA is an 8YO Japanese sprinter that just missed three times behind the heralded DANCING PRINCE. He has earned over HK$20-million prize money in 47 starts and he has done his best running on the dirt going short.
SELECTIONS: 4. GUNITE, 1. DANCING PRINCE, 2. ELITE POWER, 6. MERAAS & 9. RYUNO YUKINA
S2-8 Saudi Cup
This is the fourth renewal of the G1 Saudi Cup and it has one of its deepest fields. The three previous runnings saw final running times of 1:50.52 seconds, 1:49.59 seconds and 1:50.58 seconds. Even contested at 1,800m around one turn, speedy horses have to be careful and not set too fast a pace. Without going around two turns, which usually sorts the field out, the one-turn configuration seems to put sustained pressure on the leaders and the run to the wire is a test of strength. Last year’s winner, EMBLEM ROAD rallied on the far outside and never saved any ground but had a clear trip.
TAIBA is an immensely talented colt from Bob Baffert that should benefit from today’s conditions. He won the G1 Santa Anita Derby in only his second career start but was then entered in the G1 Kentucky Derby. It was too much too soon and it took him most of the summer to recover. He’s won two G1s in his last three starts and has been pointed for this race.
Bob Baffert has a strong hand in this year’s Saudi Cup and if TAIBA falters, COUNTRY GRAMMER could be the beneficiary. Second here last year when he looked like a winner in the shadow of the wire, he comes in this year off a recent win in the G2 San Antonio Stakes and looks to be better prepared. He’ll show speed on occasion but will probably be ridden from off the pace and try to time his late move better than last year.
Japanese horses have done sensationally around the world on turf and dirt and they have a live chance in here. CAFE PHAROAH is a son of American triple crown winner AMERICAN PHAROAH that has numerous wins off layoffs. At the age of six, he’s been prepared for this race off a 10-week layoff and this is his time of year having won the G1 February Stakes the past two years.
EMBLEM ROAD will try to replicate last year’s shocking upset. He was tried on the turf in France last summer and even though it was not a bad effort, he returned to his winning ways last out here with an easy win going 1,600m. Son of QUALITY ROAD out of a BERNARDINI mare certainly has the pedigree to get a distance of ground on dirt.
JUN LIGHT BOLT has found a home on the dirt after racing on turf in his first 21 career starts. He won his last three starts on it and beat a good field going today’s distance last out in the G1 Champions Cup at Chuko in Japan.
SELECTIONS: 10. TAIBA, 2. COUNTRY GRAMMER, 1. CAFE PHAROAH, 4. EMBLEM ROAD & 6. JUN LIGHT BOLT
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