Expert - Bill Esdaile
Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races.

Expert Column for Dubai Super Saturday (S2) (Bill Esdaile)

 

S2-2 Dubai City Of Gold

Godolphin have had a virtual stranglehold on this prestigious 2,410m race, and the boys in blue are looking for a phenomenal 13th success having won five of the last six runnings. And, despite the fact that REBEL’S ROMANCE, the ace in Godolphin’s pack, suffered an injury on Wednesday and is a late non-runner, they still have a strong supporting team for what now looks a wide-open race.

There looks like being plenty of pace on, which will suit KEMARI, who has now earned top billing with the Godolphin team. He chased home REBEL’S ROMANCE twice in the UK over 2,400m and 2,398m last summer and probably needed his comeback race here over 2,810m in February, his first for five months.

True, KEMARI has been beaten nine times since his last victory, in the G2 Queen’s Vase over 2,841m at Royal Ascot two seasons ago, but he has been performing well against some of the best middle-distance horses in Europe. This could well be the time when he shines again.

Hong Kong challenger SENOR TOBA is now the highest rated horse in the race, and he has consistently produced smart form at Sha Tin after showing plenty of promise in Australia. SENOR TOBA showed plenty of resolution to beat subsequent winner RUNNING GLORY in the G3 Centenary Vase over 1,800m at Sha Tin. Granted, he never looked like striking a blow a fortnight later in the local G1 H H The Amir Trophy in Qatar, but he was beaten less than five lengths in a race which probably came too soon.

Godolphin have another likely lad in GLOBAL STORM, who produced a career-best when third in this race last year, and that form looked even better after the winner, HUKUM, followed up in the G1 Coronation Cup at Epsom. His form plateaued last summer, but returning to Meydan, where he won a competitive handicap under a big weight last year, might rekindle the flame.

LOST EDEN won three races on the dirt over 1,800m and 1,950m at Jebel Ali through the winter. He has only raced twice on turf when trained in Britain, but showed a modicum of promise so could outrun his likely odds.

GLOBAL HEAT, fifth in this race 12 months ago, looks the better of Saeed bin Suroor’s pair, and like KEMARI, he too is a strong stayer who will be suited by an end-to-end gallop.

 

SELECTIONS: 6. KEMARI, 10. SENOR TOBA, 7. LOST EDEN, 5. GLOBAL STORM & 4. GLOBAL HEAT

 

S2-3 Burj Nahaar

Winners of the G3 Burj Nahaar often end up in the G2 Godolphin Mile on Dubai World Cup Day.

To find that winner, it may be best to first consider two horses that appear closely matched on form this season in DISCOVERY ISLAND and EVERFAST, having already faced each other twice. On the first occasion, in the G2 Al Maktoum Challenge R1, DISCOVERY ISLAND stayed on the better, running into second ahead of EVERFAST in third. That’s an effort that should be upgraded too, given it came on the back of a long layoff.  It was a different story, however, when they met again in the G3 Firebreak Stakes in unusual conditions which saw the track ride muddy, as EVERFAST stayed on the stronger. DISCOVERY ISLAND didn’t look to handle the extreme conditions that day and as Bhupat Seemar’s 6YO is usually such a consistent horse, it’s worth giving him another chance on only his third run of the season.

FANAAR has looked an improved horse this season, winning three of his five starts, including the G3 Jebel Ali Mile over 1,600m on his most recent outing. Doug Watson’s son of DARK ANGEL stayed on strongly up the rail there to pull several lengths clear of the field. On that form he’s entitled to plenty of respect, but the worry with him is the return to Meydan, where he has failed to place in all of his eight runs in the past.

SECRET AMBITION was second behind FANAAR at G3 Jebel Ali Mile, and his run before that saw him finish a close fourth in the G2 Al Maktoum Challenge R1 behind DISCOVERY ISLAND and EVERFAST. On that evidence it’s clear this 10YO retains plenty of class, and with him holding a good draw in stall 3, he should be involved in the finish.

DESERT WISDOM won this race last year before going on to finish an excellent second in the G2 Godolphin Mile. Things haven’t gone according to plan for Ahmed Al Shemaili’s gelding this season, though, when a beaten favourite in the G2 Al Maktoum Challenge R1 on his reappearance before another disappointing run in the G2 Al Maktoum Challenge R2 over 1,900m last month. He should be suited to the return to 1,600m, and as a 5YO with only 10 starts on the clock, is worthy of another chance to show he can produce better.

 

SELECTIONS:  4. DISCOVERY ISLAND, 5. EVERFAST, 6. FANAAR, 14. SECRET AMBITION & 3. DESERT WISDOM

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-3:
Banker – 4. DISCOVERY ISLAND
Selections – 5. EVERFAST, 6. FANAAR, 14. SECRET AMBITION & 3. DESERT WISDOM
S2-4:
Banker – 3. CITY WALK
Selections – 5. COULD BE KING, 8. KHAADEM, 4. COACHELLO & 14. THUNDER OF NIAGARA

 

S2-4 Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint

CITY WALK should give Godolphin victory in the G3 Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint for the sixth time in the last seven years. His trainer Saeed bin Suroor landed this G3 over 1,200m with FINAL SONG two years ago and he looks to have an improving sprinter on his hands with CITY WALK. He battled on well to win a good 1,200m handicap at Meydan two weeks ago, having earlier finished fifth behind COACHELLO from a poor stall on unsuitably soft ground in the Listed Dubai Sprint. The draw has been kind to him this time and he will be hard to pass.

COULD BE KING was well behind CITY WALK two weeks ago but he has a much better draw this time. Niels Petersen’s Norwegian raider showed a lot of pace to lead the group towards the far side of the track but he couldn’t live with the stand side runners. That was his first run for four months, so he should last longer this time.

KHAADEM hasn’t been at his best in Dubai recently. He trailed in well beaten over 1,000m in January and never threatened to play a part in the finish after a slow start returned to 1,000m in the G2 Blue Point Sprint three weeks ago. Consistency has never been his strong suit but he would be a contender on his best form. His victory in the G2 King George Stakes over 1,000m at Goodwood last year would give him a sound chance.

COACHELLO has the form to be a big player but his draw in stall 7 is far from ideal. The ground will also be faster than it was when he sprung a surprise in the Listed Dubai Sprint over 1,200m last month and he might not be as effective on the quicker surface.

THUNDER OF NIAGARA made a successful return to action when landing a 1,000m handicap at Meydan in January. He backed it up with a solid third behind COACHELLO in a 1,200m Listed race on soft ground before finding the step up in grade to G2 level beyond him in the Blue Point Sprint over 1,000m. This slightly easier task gives this versatile sprinter claims of hitting the frame from a decent draw.

 

SELECTIONS: 3. CITY WALK, 5. COULD BE KING, 8. KHAADEM, 4. COACHELLO & 14. THUNDER OF NIAGARA

 

S2-5 Al Bastakiya

This Listed 1,900m dirt race frequently acts as a trial for the G2 UAE Derby over 1,900m on Dubai World Cup Day, with the last winner that went on to land the Derby coming in 2015.

Trainer Ahmad Bin Harmash runs three here and the pick of his trio could prove to be the lightly raced MR RAJ. This son of dual US G1 winner BOLT D’ORO has only had three career starts and looks set to run a big race after finishing off well when last seen over 1,600m three weeks ago. That came in the G3 UAE 2000 Guineas, so this represents a drop in class, and the way he stayed on at the finish last time suggests this step up to 1,900m should bring out more improvement.

Another class-dropper is AMI PLEASE, who is set to make her second start in UAE after switching back to Doug O’Neill’s yard following a spell in the US. She put in a big performance in the G3 UAE Oaks over the same course and distance, leading for much of the race and going with a high-class rival from the top of the home straight before fading at the finish. The pair pulled over three lengths clear of the third, suggesting it was a good effort, and if she can replicate or improve on that, this filly by GOLDENCENTS must have a strong chance.

LAHRESH won a conditions race over the same course and distance in January that looks to provide a strong form-line for this contest. Musabbeh Al Mheiri’s runner was highly impressive there, taking up the running off the home turn and immediately kicking clear of his rivals, winning with plenty in hand at the line. That was his first try over this 1,900m trip and he looked stronger the further he went, so he is well worth his place in this grade.

GO SOLDIER GO, who finished second behind LAHRESH – beaten 4.5 lengths – has since come out and won well, giving the form a strong look to it.

Another from that race, the third-placed FLYING HUNTER, looked to get outpaced when the tempo lifted, but might be happier in a more strongly run contest. He actually beat both LAHRESH and MR RAJ on debut at Jebel Ali over 1,400m back in December but has shown less progression than those two rivals since and will do well to turn the form around from last time.

 

SELECTIONS: 5. MR RAJ, 4. LAHRESH, 11. AMI PLEASE, 3. GO SOLDIER GO & 2. FLYING HUNTER

 

S2-6 Al Maktoum Challenge R3

This year’s renewal of the G1 Al Maktoum Challenge R3 over 2,000m looks a very open contest with the entirety of the field pretty closely matched on ratings.

The best place to start might be BENDOOG, who comes into this after a good run behind ALGIERS in the G2 Al Maktoum Challenge R2 over 1,900m. He might have been beaten six lengths that day, but the winner is now well-fancied for the G1 Dubai World Cup, so the form looks very solid. BENDOOG doesn’t face anything like the same calibre of opposition here, and a repeat run would see him go close.

SALUTE THE SOLDIER might now be an 8YO, but he’s still a good horse on his day. The winner of this race two years ago, SALUTE THE SOLDIER was another to finish behind ALGIERS last time. He finished 11.5 lengths behind the winner, and was over five lengths behind BENDOOG, so needs to step up here. Fawzi Nass’ inmate won the Conditions dirt race over 2,000m nicely prior to that, though, so has the ability to get involved.

The combination of jockey Mickael Barzalona and trainer Salem bin Ghadayer have won three of the last four renewals of this race, so FIRST CONSTITUTION needs plenty of respect. He was a good performer when trained by Todd Pletcher in America, though he hasn’t quite repeated that since moving to Salem bin Ghadayer. The 5YO horse is bred to relish this sort of test, but his recent form leaves a question mark.

SIFTING SANDS has failed to fire in his two starts for Doug O’Neill. He had some good form when trained by Chad Brown, though, notably a win at Belmont Park over 1,600m. The form of that has been boosted since with the runner-up winning a G3 since, so he might be worth a second look.

ATLETICO EL CULANO can complete the placings. He’s been running consistently recently and while he was another to be no match for ALGIERS last time, he’s returning to a much more suitable test here.  

 

SELECTIONS: 3. BENDOOG, 4. FIRST CONSTITUTION, 13. SALUTE THE SOLDIER, 15. SIFTING SANDS & 2. ATLETICO EL CULANO

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-6:
Banker – 3. BENDOOG
Selections – 4. FIRST CONSTITUTION, 13. SALUTE THE SOLDIER, 15. SIFTING SANDS & 2. ATLETICO EL CULANO
S2-7:
Banker – 2. AL SUHAIL
Selections – 3. DANYAH, 6. PATH OF THUNDER, 9. SHINING BLUE & 5. LANEQASH

 

S2-7 Ras Al Khor

Godolphin had the first four home in this 1,400m conditions race last year, and they again look sure to be major players.

Ironically, AL SUHAIL, the choice of William Buick, ran badly when hot-favourite 12 months ago and he does lack consistency. But he bounced back to form when, under different riding tactics, he trounced a big field in G2 company here over 1,400m in January. He usually prefers a front-running role, but because he was drawn wide in gate 15, trainer Charlie Appleby was forced into a change. Ridden cold from off the pace this time by Buick, AL SUHAIL, who won the prestigious G2 Challenge Stakes over 1,400m at Newmarket two years ago, travelled well and won most impressively. He is the class horse in the race, so if he brings his A-game to the track he will be hard to beat.

AL SUHAIL has a handy draw in stall 2, whereas stablemate PATH OF THUNDER will have to take the scenic route from 14. PATH OF THUNDER has finished in the frame in all his four visits to Meydan, winning the Zabeel Mile over 1,600m in good style at last year’s Carnival.

Godolphin’s other trainer, Saeed bin Suroor, who was responsible for the first two last year, and in SHINING BLUE he has another solid prospect. SHINING BLUE was a useful performer in the UK in the first half of last year, and he has thrived since arriving in Dubai. However, he was wayward out in front when winning a competitive handicap over 1,400m on his Meydan debut. Similar trailblazing tactics were tried again when SHINING BLUE was upped to Listed company over 1,400m here in February, but this time he was easily brushed aside by DANYAH, who might again have his measure.

DANYAH, a smart handicapper around 1,400m and 1,600m in Britain in 2021, relished being back on turf having previously suffered two previous defeats on dirt. Back on his preferred surface, DANYAH made short work of MODERN NEWS, and a reproduction of that form would put him right in the mix.

The fact that Jim Crowley, Shadwell’s number one jockey, has opted for LANEQASH over DANYAH is interesting.  LANEQASH is making his Dubai debut, but he had useful form in Britain, being placed in Group company on three occasions.

 

SELECTIONS: 2. AL SUHAIL, 3. DANYAH, 6. PATH OF THUNDER, 9. SHINING BLUE & 5. LANEQASH

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-7: Multiple – 2. AL SUHAIL, 3. DANYAH & 6. PATH OF THUNDER
S2-8: Multiple – 10. MASTER OF THE SEAS, 12. REAL WORLD & 15. VALIANT PRINCE
S2-9: Multiple – 3. ISOLATE, 5. MOUHEEB & 8. TUZ

 

S2-8 Jebel Hatta

As has become customary in the big races in Dubai, Godolphin will have a big say in the result and this year’s 1,800m G1 Jebel Hatta is no different.

MASTER OF THE SEAS is the choice of William Buick and he looks the one to beat. The 5YO hasn’t been easy to train, having had only 10 career starts, but given he is already a four-time Group winner, he’s a horse with plenty of talent. He was last seen winning the 1,600m G2 Zabeel Mile where he was a more decisive winner than the half-length margin suggested. He’ll take plenty of beating from stall 2.

Stablemate VALIANT PRINCE could give him plenty to think about. A draw in stall 14 is far from ideal, but if he can overcome that, he has the form that makes him a contender. He was a good winner of the 1,575m Listed Ganton Stakes at York last year and backed that up with two good G2 wins at Meydan over 1,800m. The form of his victory in the Al Rashidiya looks solid now, with the runner-up, DUBAI FUTURE, running a good race in Riyadh last weekend.

Saeed bin Suroor’s REAL WORLD, also in the Godolphin silks, will likely run well too. The 6YO is another who is lightly-raced for his age having had just 14 career starts. He’s been gelded since his last run – a one-and-three-quarter-length second to the superstar BAAEED in the 1,600m G1 Queen Anne Stakes at Ascot. He won the 1,600m G2 Zabeel Mile last season, while he was also victorious in the 1,600m G2 Prix Daniel Wildenstein at ParisLongchamp, so he has the ability to feature.

Hong Kong fans will be cheering on Douglas Whyte’s RUSSIAN EMPEROR. The son of GALILEO took time to acclimatise to racing in Hong Kong but is now a two-time G1 winner having won the 2,000m Hong Kong Gold Cup and 2,400m Standard Chartered Champions & Chater Cup. Those victories in addition to his win in the 2,400m Qatar G1 H H The Amir Trophy at Doha make him a contender, though this drop back in trip is a concern.

Much was hoped of EL DRAMA when he won the 2,100m Listed Dee Stakes at Chester. However, a combination of injuries and a loss of form have meant he hasn’t won since. He’ll be a big price for this, but showed when second to MUTASAABEQ at Newmarket G2 race over 1,600m in September that he is capable when on a going day.

 

SELECTIONS: 10. MASTER OF THE SEAS, 12. REAL WORLD, 15. VALIANT PRINCE, 13. RUSSIAN EMPEROR & 4. EL DRAMA

 

S2-9 Mahab Al Shimaal

ISOLATE should take revenge on TUZ in their rematch as they go head-to-head again in the G3 Mahab Al Shimaal over 1,200m. The pair met in the G3 Al Shindagha Sprint over this course and distance last month when TUZ took advantage of a helpful low stall to make all the running. ISOLATE was not drawn as well and a sluggish start made life even more difficult. He recovered to stay on into second without troubling the winner but that was still a good performance on his first start since September. He should sharpen up a lot for that comeback run and it should be enough to see him turn the form around with TUZ.

The draw has not been as kind to TUZ this time. He’s bagged the widest stall and he will have to blast out of the gate to get a decent position early in the race. He had twice finished behind MOUHEEB and he might struggle to get the better of Michel Costa’s runner again.

MOUHEEB landed a 1,200m handicap at Jebel Ali in October and he returned to Meydan to land a 1,200m Listed race in December. This is a track he knows all about having won the G3 UAE 2000 Guineas over 1,600m in 2021. The drop to sprinting seems to suit him well these days and his third behind SWITZERLAND in the G3 Dubawi Stakes over 1,200m in early January was another sound effort. Stall 8 is not ideal but he should be able to slot into a good enough position with several inferior rivals drawn near the rail.

COLOUR UP has taken well to the dirt track at Meydan. He won a 1,200m maiden at this track in December before following up another race over 1,000m at Jebel Ali. His second behind RAWY when returned to Meydan for a 1,200m handicap was a solid effort as he was inconvenienced by being caught wide around the turn. The way he bolted up by 5.5 lengths over this course and distance last week showed he is a rapidly improving sprinter. This is a step up in grade but he is clearly useful.

SOUND MONEY had some good form in America last year. He has a decent draw for his first start in Dubai and he has to be considered.

 

SELECTIONS: 3. ISOLATE, 5. MOUHEEB, 8. TUZ, 2. COLOUR UP & 7. SOUND MONEY

 

 

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