Expert - Bill Esdaile
Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races.

 

Expert Column for Dubai World Cup Day (S2) (Bill Esdaile)

S2-2     Godolphin Mile

Japanese star BATHRAT LEON caused a huge shock when making all the running to land last year’s G2 Godolphin Mile over 1,600m. He had the favoured lowest stall 12 months ago and he’s starting a fair bit wider from box eight this time. That shouldn’t be a problem as he showed he possesses plenty of early pace when going from the front in the G3 1351 Turf Sprint at the Saudi Cup meeting last month. His defeat of American G1 winner CASA CREED in Riyadh was a fine warm up for his defence of this prize and he looks to have a leading chance of retaining the trophy.

ISOLATE looks the pick of Doug Watson’s four runners. He has been finding 1,200m a bit on the sharp side in G3 races on Meydan’s dirt track and promises to be suited by the return to 1,600m. His Saratoga Listed victory over 1,400m last August showed he is worth another try at this distance. He hasn’t run over this far for more than two years but is certainly shaping like he will appreciate it.

RAAEB posted a personal best performance upped to 1,600m for the first time when runner-up behind DISCOVERY ISLAND in the G3 Burj Nahaar over this course and distance three weeks ago. That certainly gives him something to build on. It’s rather puzzling that he’s been kept to shorter distances for much of his career as he is bred to come into his own over this sort of trip. There’s every chance he will continue to progress with a helpful draw in gate four.

DISCOVERY ISLAND hasn’t been so fortunate. His wide draw in box 12 is far from ideal but he did race from stall nine when beating RAAEB and ROYAL MEWS in the G3 Burj Nahaar over 1,600m. He’s got a good record on Meydan’s dirt surface and still seems to be improving.

PRINCE EIJI has taken well to the dirt course at Meydan. There was a lot to like about his defeat of EVERFAST in the G3 Firebreak Stakes over 1,600m at this track in January. He’s not been as lucky with the draw this time as he has been handed gate 11. That makes life tricky, but he certainly has the ability to be involved in the finish if he gets the breaks.

SELECTIONS: 2. BATHRAT LEON, 8. ISOLATE, 12. RAAEB, 4. DISCOVERY ISLAND & 11. PRINCE EIJI

S2-3     Dubai Gold Cup

In recent years, the G2 Dubai Gold Cup over 3,200m hasn’t been a lucky contest for the winner of the G3 Nad Al Sheba Trophy over 2,810m, with many impressive winners of that event failing to successfully follow up in the Dubai Gold Cup.

That isn’t a favourable statistic for SISKANY who comes here after a convincing two-length victory in that G3 contest. Charlie Appleby’s 5YO showed a smart turn of foot on that occasion in a race that turned into a dash from the home turn. While he’s unproven at this trip that looks the best recent form coming into this race and he could be up to proving the recent trends wrong.

SUBJECTIVIST won this race in 2021 before going on to win the G1 Gold Cup over 3,991m later that season. On that form Charlie Johnston’s runner would take plenty of stopping here, but his reappearance in the G3 Red Sea Turf Handicap over 3,000m at The Saudi Cup meeting, which came after the best part of two years off the track, failed to prove that he retains all his ability. He may have badly needed that run after his long absence and could take a big step forward now, but it looks difficult to support him for win purposes on that evidence.

Hughie Morrison’s QUICKTHORN has won on two out of his three seasonal debuts and he is likely to have been targeted at this race for a while. A front-runner, he isn’t well drawn to attack here from stall 12, and while that won’t necessarily stop him getting to the front, those exertions might tell in the closing stages.

ENEMY was narrowly behind QUICKTHORN in the G3 Sagaro Stakes over 3,200m at Ascot last April, and there shouldn’t be much between the two again. Ian Williams’ runner was a good winner of a handicap over 2,410m at Meydan in January before improving on that run when finishing an excellent second behind the Japanese runner SILVER SONIC in the G3 Red Sea Turf Handicap over 3,000m last time. He’s still relatively unexposed over 3,200m, after only three starts at the trip, and from a good draw in stall seven, he should be well placed to finish strongly.

4YOs receive weight from their rivals in this contest and have a good record in recent times, winning two of the last three renewals. ARDAKAN was seen staying on well behind SISKANY in the G3 Nad Al Sheba Trophy last time when probably unsuited to the slow early gallop. Given more of a pace to aim at, Marco Botti’s 4YO can continue his steadily progressive form and can get involved in the finish.

SELECTIONS: 9. SISKANY, 10. SUBJECTIVIST, 7. QUICKTHORN, 3. ENEMY & 13. ARDAKAN

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-3:
Banker – 9. SISKANY
Selections – 10. SUBJECTIVIST, 7. QUICKTHORN, 3. ENEMY & 13. ARDAKAN
S2-4:   
Banker – 5. FLAMING RIB
Selections – 16. AL DASIM, 11. SIGHT SUCCESS, 1. AL SUHAIL & 15. LADIES CHURCH

S2-4     Al Quoz Sprint

Smart British sprinter FLAMING RIB looks primed for the G1 Al Quoz Sprint over 1,200m on the turf track. He was runner-up in the G1 Commonwealth Cup over 1,200m at Royal Ascot last June and ran another good race when fourth in Haydock’s G1 Sprint Cup Stakes later in the season. His victory over 1,200m in Doha last month will have set him up nicely for this race and he’s got a good draw in stall 12.

AL DASIM has won his last five races and has looked an improved sprinter in Dubai this year. He took the step up in class in his stride when coming well clear to land the G3 Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint over this course and distance three weeks ago. The way he travels through his races suggests the rise into the top grade shouldn’t halt his progress. Everything looks in place for George Boughey’s star to run a big race.

Hong Kong sprinter SIGHT SUCCESS fought off in-form REWARDING TOGETHER to win a G3 Bauhinia Sprint Trophy over 1,000m at Sha Tin in January. That came on the back of a personal best effort when runner-up in the G1 Hong Kong Sprint over 1,200m the previous month. He ran another sound race at this 1,200m distance in a top-level race when third behind prolific winner LUCKY SWEYNESSE and WELLINGTON in the G1 Centenary Sprint Cup at Sha Tin last month. His class makes him a big player and he’s been drawn favourably in 13.

AL SUHAIL has been in terrific form at Meydan recently. He beat subsequent G1 winner ALFAREEQ to land the G2 Al Fahidi Fort over 1,400m in January when he charged through from off the pace to win by four lengths. His victory in the 1,400m Ras Al Khor came by a similarly wide margin and he showed he is tactically versatile as he sat much closer to the early pace. There’s every chance he will try to go from the front dropped to 1,200m for only the second time in his career, but he might not be quick enough to match some of the proven sprinters.

LADIES CHURCH, breaking from stall 10, could also make the frame. The 4YO filly was beaten just a short-head in the G2 Blue Point Sprint over 1,000m last time out, and that performance came after a five-month lay-off.

SELECTIONS: 5. FLAMING RIB, 16. AL DASIM, 11. SIGHT SUCCESS, 1. AL SUHAIL & 15. LADIES CHURCH

S2-5     UAE Derby

Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the 1,900m G2 UAE Derby three times since 2012 and he’ll be hopeful of landing this year’s race with CAIRO. The 3YO colt has run five times in his career, winning three of them and coming second in the other two, so he’s very consistent. He’s yet to run on dirt but was a good winner of the 1,600m Listed Patton Stakes on Dundalk’s polytrack last time and his sire, QUALITY ROAD, won four G1s on dirt, so he should be fine on the surface. He looks a worthy market leader.

WORCESTER is certainly lacking in experience having run just three times, but given he’s ridden by Frankie Dettori and trained by Bob Baffert, he has to be considered. He was tried in G3 company in the Robert B Lewis Stakes over 1,700m on just his third career start, so he’s clearly well-regarded. This is a big step up in class, but it’s likely there is plenty of improvement to come.

Japanese runners can seemingly do no wrong at the moment, so GORAIKO looks an interesting contender. Koichi Shintani’s charge has been impressive in both the local G3 Jbc Nisai Yushun and the Listed Hyacinth Stakes. The son of HOKKO TARUMAE must be well thought of to be running here, and with improvement very likely, he can be expected to contend.

The other Japanese raider worthy of a mention is DURA EREDE – one of few in the field who’s won a G1. That came in the 2,000m Hopeful Stakes at Nakayama where he was sent off 90/1 to win, so it’s clear the victory wasn’t expected. The form of that win has been franked with the fourth winning a G3 subsequently, so DURA EREDE isn’t without a chance if he can back up that run.

The placings can be completed by the 1,900m Listed Al Bastakiya winner GO SOLDIER GO. He just held off the reopposing MR RAJ that day showing he’s an improving type, though this is a big step up in class.

SELECTIONS: 3. CAIRO, 8. GORAIKO, 13. WORCESTER, 6. DURA EREDE & 7. GO SOLDIER GO

S2-6     Dubai Golden Shaheen

There have been two big surprises in the last two runnings of the G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen, run over 1,200m on the dirt at Meydan, but GUNITE, the likely favourite, should have a great chance in this race. Steve Asmussen’s 4YO ran a fine second behind ELITE POWER in the 1,200m G3 Riyadh Dirt Sprint last month. That was the first time he was beaten at this distance, but he is definitely a sprinter on the up and connections have decided this is a better trip for him after he was fourth in the 1,600m G1 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile at Keeneland in November.

Last year’s victor SWITZERLAND was the oldest ever winner of this race at 8YO and he now comes back as a 9YO trying to break more records. Bhupat Seemar’s SPEIGHTSTOWN gelding has been lightly-raced over the past couple of seasons as he has such a good record fresh. However, the gap of just a month between finishing sixth in last year’s Riyadh Dirt Sprint over 1,200m and taking this prize clearly did him no harm. Seemar brought him back to comfortably land a G3 over the same course and distance in early January, with this race being his main target. It will be a tough ask at his age to win back-to-back runnings, but he is very solid and hard to leave out of calculations.

Although Japan continues to take out top prizes all over the world, this race still eludes them. You get the feeling they won’t be waiting long, though. Of their four runners, RED LE ZELE is perhaps the most interesting. He was second to another of his rivals in this race, LEMON POP, in the G1 February Stakes last month, but that was over 1,600m. His running style means he always tends to finish strongly, as he has done that in the last two runnings of this race to take the runner-up spot.

LEMON POP has won eight and finished second three times in his 11 career starts, but all of those have come in Japan and he has always raced over further than 1,200m. He travels well in his races, so the distance shouldn’t be a problem, but there are a couple of question marks for him to answer.

C Z ROCKET was an excellent second to ELITE POWER in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Sprint 2022. If he backs that up, he won’t be far away here.

SELECTIONS: 2. GUNITE, 7. RED LE ZELE, 5. LEMON POP, 13. SWITZERLAND & 1. C Z ROCKET

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (18 unit bets):
S2-6:   
Banker – 2. GUNITE
Selections – 7. RED LE ZELE, 5. LEMON POP, 13. SWITZERLAND & 1. C Z ROCKET
S2-7:   
Banker – 12. SERIFOS
Selections – 7. LORD NORTH, 9. NATIONS PRIDE & 8. MASTER OF THE SEAS

S2-7     Dubai Turf

The Japanese clocked up a remarkable five winners including a dead-heat in the G1 Dubai Turf, at the 2022 Dubai World Cup meeting.

They have SERIFOS for this 1,800m contest. SERIFOS had always struggled when stepping up to the top level, but he finally nailed his G1 when swooping late to win the 1,600m G1 Mile Championship at Hanshin in November. However, with a big field here the pace is bound to be strong from the start. His strong turn of foot brings him a big winning chance.

UK challenger LORD NORTH won the G1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot three years ago. He has since made two trips to the UAE, winning back-to-back renewals of this race, albeit having to share first prize last year. Though now a 7YO, LORD NORTH looked as good as ever when outclassing G3 opposition in the 2,000m Winter Derby on the polytrack at Lingfield in February. He loves this track and fast ground, so his younger rivals will need to be on their A-game.

NATIONS PRIDE got badly interfered with when a closing fifth in the 2,400m G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf and should have won. He is 2-2 at Meydan and was impressive in his dress-rehearsal over 2,000m here in February.

Stablemate MASTER OF THE SEAS was unlucky in the 1,800m G1 Jebel Hatta over the course on Dubai Super Saturday. As the runner up of the G1 2000 Guineas in 2021, the talented 5YO could be anything in this occasion.

SELECTIONS: 12. SERIFOS, 7. LORD NORTH, 9. NATIONS PRIDE & 8. MASTER OF THE SEAS

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-7: Multiple – 12. SERIFOS, 7. LORD NORTH & 9. NATIONS PRIDE
S2-8: Multiple – 7. EQUINOX, 6. SHAHRYAR & 3. REBEL’S ROMANCE
S2-9: Multiple – 4. COUNTRY GRAMMER, 3. CAFE PHAROAH & 1. ALGIERS

S2-8     Dubai Sheema Classic

Japanese-trained runners have been the go-to selections in the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic over 2,410m in recent years, winning last year with SHAHRYAR and finishing a close second with CHRONO GENESIS and CHEVAL GRAND in 2021 and 2019.

SHAHRYAR, Hideaki Fujiwara’s son of DEEP IMPACT, is back to attempt to retain his crown, and arguably comes here in better form than 12 months ago. On his last start he finished a narrow second in the G1 Japan Cup over 2,400m at Tokyo in November, a contest he had finished third before winning this race in 2022.

SHAHRYAR should be primed to go close once again, but Japan may have a stronger contender this year in the shape of EQUINOX. Billed as the next big thing in his home country, the Tetsuya Kimura-trained colt was beaten in two G1s at the beginning of 2022 but remerged in October to land the G1 Tenno Sho Autumn over 2,000m, and then followed up when impressively striding clear in the G1 Arima Kinen over 2,500m at Nakayama two months later. 4YOs have the advantage of carrying less weight in this race, something that has seen the younger generation win the last three renewals, and EQUINOX could make it four in a row.

REBEL’S ROMANCE was last seen winning the G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf over 2,400m at Keeneland, a race that completed a string of five consecutive wins, including three G1s. The turn of foot he showed at the Breeders’ Cup, when quickening around the field into the short home straight showed he was a high-class talent and if in the same form after a break, he’ll be a danger to all. Charlie Appleby has won two of the last five renewals of this race and another trainer that has matched that total in the same period is John Gosden.

Now joined on the licence by son Thady, together they field the progressive MOSTAHDAF, who comes here on the back of a seven-length victory in the G3 Neom Turf Cup over 2,100m last month. This 5YO is a four-time winner at G3 level but has come up short four times when tested in higher company, and with this being among his biggest tests to date, the likelihood is he’ll find a few rivals too good.

WESTOVER has proved last season that he was G1 class when winning the G1 Irish Derby over 2,400m. In two subsequent starts, he was beaten when taking on older horses, most recently in the G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe over 2,400m, but he looks set to make a better 4YO and can’t be left out of the equation.

SELECTIONS: 7. EQUINOX, 6. SHAHRYAR, 3. REBEL’S ROMANCE, 8. WESTOVER & 2. MOSTAHDAF

S2-9     Dubai World Cup

After a powerful showing for Japan in the G1 Saudi Cup over 1,800m last month, the Land of the Rising Sun is responsible for 8 of the 15 runners in the G1 Dubai World Cup over 2,000m.

The G1 Saudi Cup winner PANTHALASSA would be an obvious selection, and he’ll be hard to pass once again if able to set the fractions out in front, but he might not get it all his own way this time. He’s also got an extra 200m to see out here in Meydan compared with Riyadh, and he looks vulnerable to a few closers.

CROWN PRIDE, who finished fifth in The Saudi Cup, could pose a bigger threat this time. He was very keen in the early stages and would have finished closer to the winner if he settled better. He’s an out-and-out dirt horse who’s been very consistent all season and could be in the shake-up at a big price.

There’s reason to believe CAFE PHAROAH, third in Riyadh, can outrun his odds too. Joao Moreira broke from a wide gate in The G1 Saudi Cup and was eventually steered towards the inside as they took the home turn, before then being angled out again for a closing run. With a smoother trip, he could go close.

The other Japanese contender who could spring a bit of a surprise is T O KEYNES. He skipped the trip to Saudi Arabia this year and instead took in a prep run over 2,100m at Kawasaki, finishing second to USHBA TESORO. Despite being a little keen early and forced to take a wide trip round the home bend, he managed to pull well clear of the third and still hit the line strongly. His season looks to have been mapped out with this race in mind and he could cause an upset.

COUNTRY GRAMMER, last year’s winner and a fast-finishing second in the G1 Saudi Cup, has to be respected again and looks a worthy favourite. Frankie Dettori’s mount looked in great form when finding his stride late to come within a length of winning the world’s most valuable race, and he has to be high on the shortlist over this extra 200m.

ALGIERS’ training duo of Simon & Ed Crisford decided to keep their G2 Al Maktoum Challenge R2 over 1,900m winner in Dubai in favour of a crack at the G1 Saudi Cup. Having won his last two starts at Meydan this term by a total of 12.5 lengths, it’s been hard not to be impressed and he should make the frame if in the same sort of form, albeit this represents a significant step up in class.

SELECTIONS: 4. COUNTRY GRAMMER, 3. CAFE PHAROAH, 1. ALGIERS, 13. T O KEYNES & 5. CROWN PRIDE

 

 

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