 Expert - Brett Davis | |
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| Brett Davis was introduced to Australian Racing by his father back in the early 1980’s when his family became involved in formulating “Thoroughbred Racing Syndications”. Brett worked from 1995 as a Professional Form Analysts and Race Broadcaster with an array of companies throughout most parts of the Australia Racing industry. He currently resides in Adelaide, his hometown in Australia, where he is Chief Thoroughbred Race Caller and Form Analyst for Tabcorp / SkyChannel / RadioTAB. Brett Davis also spent 2 years with the Singapore Turf Club and 13 Racing Seasons with the Hong Kong Jockey Club between 2006 to 2019 as a leading Form Analyst / Race Caller and was the HKJC Chief Race Caller from 2014, calling the last 5 Hong Kong International (Turf World Championships) race meetings and over 50 G1 races. Brett has immense passion for Australian Racing both personally and professionally. With his diverse knowledge and long standing industry relations he’s a valuable asset to racing and it’s enthusiasts. | |
Expert Column for Queen Elizabeth Stakes Day (S1) (Brett Davis)
S1-1 Percy Sykes Stakes
BOSSY NIC heads to Sydney under the astute care of the McEvoy yard after debuting at Morphettville, before winning at Flemington. There was plenty to like about the win over 1,200m in the G3 Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes, where she exhibited excellent core strength to power clear over the concluding stages. The anticlockwise change of direction and cushion in the track are unknowns but she appears good enough to win.
AUTUMN BALLET was sent to Canberra for her career debut where she recorded victory in the G3 Black Opal Stakes. It was a fantastic win as she settled mid-field in traffic, before overpowered the opposition to win well through the final 100m. Trainers Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott have her primed to continue in that direction following a very comfortable trial in preparation.
KIMOCHI was runner up on debut in November before being sent to the Paddock for a spell. Returning bigger and stronger this time around is certainly the case, after and excellent midweek contest first up. Connections are now throwing her in a deep pool in an attempt to gain black type and with James McDonald to ride she’ll be right in the hunt.
LAZZAGO produced an excellent turn of foot to win the G2 Sweet Embrace Stakes over 1,200m, before being eased out of the G1 Golden Slipper after suffering interference. She appeared in good shape at the trials recently when finishing a nice third and is ready to race. Any additional on pace speed shall help her find the line and that’s a chance of unfolding.
SHINE YOUR LIGHT wasn‘t disgraced in the G3 Magic Night stakes at Rosehill two runs back before winning a much easier race at Scone. It’s likely an economical run in transit falls her way, following the barrier draw, which is necessary in a race of this depth. A big jump up in output is required to win but she’ll receive her opportunity.
SELECTIONS: 2. BOSSY NIC, 3. AUTUMN BALLET, 6. KIMOCHI, 1. LAZZAGO & 7. SHINE YOUR LIGHT
S1-2 Provincial-Midway Championships Final
KAYOBI is the expected favourite for this feature final and the son of MAURICE is perfectly placed. After winning his heat from barrier five, connections would’ve been excited when they drew well again in four. A comfortable trial win at Scone between runs has topped him of well, and it’s now up to Brenton Avdulla to pull the right reigns.
CLOUDLAND looks the value of those runner’s in commission with blinkers being applied and is well worth a ticket win or place. He was in need of the first up run at Kembla Grange when finishing second behind SHORT SHORTS and must be included in thoughts. He’ll be obviously improved with Nash Rawiller jumping aboard and he thoroughly adores the anticipated track conditions.
SHORT SHORTS has returned to racing in excellent form after dropping of intensity at the end of last campaign in November. The win at Kembla Grange over 1,400m was extremely encouraging after a four months spell and she’s amongst the top chances on ratings. She can over race from time to time, which is of concern, but the first up win is hard to ignore.
AUDETTE is building a good horses record with six wins and two places from nine starts and there’s no doubt more to follow. She finished a gallant second behind KAYOBI two runs back before winning an easier contest at Warwick Farm. She’s perfectly drawn and thrives in the soft ground so expect her to be in the finish.
ACQUITTED has drawn poorly for this feature final and shall need plenty of luck rolling his way if he’s going to win. On the flip side, he can settle back before launching a run so a high race speed is crucial. His form is up with the best in the event so with Hugh Bowman taking over the steer you’ll be given every chance.
SELECTIONS: 5. KAYOBI, 9. CLOUDLAND, 11. SHORT SHORTS, 1. AUDETTE & 2. ACQUITTED
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 5. KAYOBI
Selections – 9. CLOUDLAND, 11. SHORT SHORTS, 1. AUDETTE & 2. ACQUITTED
S1-3:
Banker – 1. AFT CABIN
Selections – 2. ZOU TIGER, 12. WEE NESSY, 11. DASHING LEGEND & 6. SWISS EXILE
S1-3 Arrowfield 3yo Sprint (Royal Sovereign Stakes)
AFT CABIN has undeniably displayed exceptional talent and swagger in the past but a rise to 1,400m and 1,600m found him out. Connections have now conceded defeat in that respect and today return to 1,200m. A recent trial victory during the lead up with James McDonald aboard was terrific, and he’s every chance of bouncing back.
ZOU TIGER is the clear standout and danger to AFT CABIN and shouldn’t be underestimated. He finished just ahead of the aforementioned in both G2 Hobartville Stakes over 1,400m and G1 Randwick Guineas over 1,600m, with the drop back in trip seeing blinkers applied. Both are expected to fight out the finish therefore it reads as the potential quinella of the day.
WEE NESSY continues to strengthen and arrives in Sydney from Melbourne ready to fire. The daughter of SNITZEL is entitled to a crack at this one million dollar event following two hearty seconds at G3 level. Damian Lane knows her capabilities particularly well and is a knockout hope if she handles the clockwise direction.
DASHING LEGEND had excuses in the recent G3 P J Bell Stakes after drawing poorly and working hard in the run. She’s better than that effort reflects and shall appreciated the further cushion in the track. She’ll require cover and a generous speed to do her best and that’s likely to unfold.
SWISS EXILE had some competitive form around GIGA KICK last campaign before a throat issue saw him spelled. His long awaited return in the Listed Darby Munro Stakes was a reasonable effort, all considered, and he should only be better for the run. He’s a risky conveyance and difficult to fully assess but may run a race at a price.
SELECTIONS: 1. AFT CABIN, 2. ZOU TIGER, 12. WEE NESSY, 11. DASHING LEGEND & 6. SWISS EXILE
S1-4 Australian Oaks
FIREBURN was pushed out to the 2,000m last start and found the line with purpose. The 2022 G1 Golden Slipper winner has been searching for a heavy track all campaign and today get what she wants. The further increase out to 2,400m is undoubtedly a query but she’s all class and perfectly prepared for this challenge.
PAVITRA chased home rising superstar PROWESS in the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes last outing and that is to be a formidable reference going forward. As the runner up in the G1 VRC Oaks at Flemington over 2,500m in 2022, the rise in journey here is particularly beneficial. She’ll race on speed, make her own luck and is tagged as the race favourite, however wet conditions are the unknown.
PENNYWEKA arrives from New Zealand following her maiden G1 Victory in the New Zealand Oaks over 2,400m in March. The New Zealand gallopers have once again made their presence felt in Australia this Autumn, and she is another that can win. The wet track conditions are not a real concern and a powerful turn of foot is her damaging weapon.
ARTS couldn’t have been more impressive winning the G3 Adrian Knox Stakes and is a genuine chance on that run. Her sectional data through the final 400m was outstanding and she was held up prior, approaching the home straight. She’s got plenty to prove against quality opponents but I’m expecting her to run well.
PIEROSSA has enjoyed a faultless preparation leading in to her biggest test and the commitment of Sam Clipperton is acknowledged. She gives all the signs the 2,400m is precisely what’s required and the track conditions are of no concern. Class now becomes the underlining question but I don’t feel she’s too faraway.
SELECTIONS: 3. FIREBURN, 2. PAVITRA, 1. PENNYWEKA, 5. ARTS & 6. PIEROSSA
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-4:
Banker – 3. FIREBURN
Selections – 2. PAVITRA, 1. PENNYWEKA, 5. ARTS & 6. PIEROSSA
S1-5:
Banker – 12. HIGH EMOCEAN
Selections – 11. CLEVELAND, 7. SUREFIRE, 5. ARAPAHO & 2. KNIGHTS ORDER
S1-5 Sydney Cup
HIGH EMOCEAN won the G3 Bendigo Cup on a heavy track in October last year which ultimately put her on the map. She then produced an outstanding final 600m in the G1 Melbourne Cup to charge into third behind GOLD TRIP. The G1 Sydney Cup has since been her target and everything appears on schedule, following a hard closing fourth in the G2 Chairman’s Quality. The seven day back may read a query but it’ll end up a blessing with the 11lbs drop in weight.
CLEVELAND has been installed as the pre-race favourite by most after his return to racing, and Australia debut, went to plan. The Joseph O’Brien trained and Australian owned stayer won’t have any issues with the 3,200m, after winning a 3,727m handicap at Chester in England last year. Jockey Kerrin McEvoy has spoken confidently about the conditions and weight relief received and is hopeful of winning a third Sydney Cup.
SUREFIRE surprised many people with a brilliant return to form in the G2 Chairman’s Quality last start and a repeat performance is on the cards. Joao Moreira shall again take the reins from an excellent barrier and he’s nicely weighted for the journey of 3,200m. His only performance over 3,200m was in this event last year when he finished along way down the track, but he over raced during the middle stages and was galloped on in the run.
ARAPAHO bumped into Australian superstar ANAMOE on two occasions earlier this campaign before taking out the Listed Canberra Cup in style. His effort to win the 2,400m G1 Tancred Stakes thereafter was superb courtesy of a brilliant ride by top class jockey Rachel King. A 3,200m handicap is now a completely different assignment but it’s obvious he’s racing in outstanding form.
KNIGHTS ORDER is hoping to win his second successive G1 Sydney Cup after leading throughout to score in 2022. The track conditions are expected to be similar with rain about during the week. His lead up form took a different course to that of last year and currently appears below par, but he’ll take some running down.
SELECTIONS: 12. HIGH EMOCEAN, 11. CLEVELAND, 7. SUREFIRE, 5. ARAPAHO & 2. KNIGHTS ORDER
S1-6 Queen Elizabeth Stakes
ANAMOE lines up for his final Australian start and tenth G1 victory before a long and enjoyable trip to England takes place later on this year. He’s the current champion of Australian racing an undefeated this campaign after winning the G1 George Ryder Stakes at Rosehill last start. He’s entitled to start the race favourite with nothing else to prove, and it’s hoped by many he leaves Australian racing on a memorable winning note. Nevertheless, it’s worth remembering he finished last in this event a year ago, when the track was rated a heavy 10.
DUBAI HONOUR made an immediate and dazzling impression on Australian racing by winning the G1 Ranvet Stakes at Rosehill by a big space. The William Haggas-trained runner has by all reports trained on exceptionally well since, and is touted as the horse to upset the ANAMOE farewell. The rain affected ground anticipated is a further enhancement to his prospects, according to the stable, which makes for a fascinating contest.
CASCADIAN has returned to racing this campaign with a wing on every hoof and cannot be discounted from taking the win. He’s undefeated over the course and distance, plus a five time winner at the track, with the wet conditions no deterrent. I don’t believe I’ve seen him in this vein of form since the 2021 G1 Doncaster Mile, which makes him a dangerous and worthy opponent.
ZEYREK is yet to prove himself at the elite weight for age level of G1 but shall thrive in the wet conditions on offer. A career best performance was registered in the G3 Neville Sellwood Stakes over 2,000m last start entitling him to enter all discussions. He’ll need to produce something spectacular, against this class of opposition to win, but he’s mentally in the right zone.
MONTEFILIA enjoys a solid record at Royal Randwick and by the way she’s returned this campaign, an additional G1 victory is imminent. Her current form reads similar to her very best and connections have opted to run her back in trip over 2,000m, in an attempt to win G1 number five. It doesn’t appeal as the best option but she’s racing fabulously well.
SELECTIONS: 1. ANAMOE, 2. DUBAI HONOUR, 4. CASCADIAN, 8. ZEYREK & 12. MONTEFILIA
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 1. ANAMOE, 2. DUBAI HONOUR & 4. CASCADIAN
S1-7: Multiple – 3. LEVANTE, 1. ALCOHOL FREE & 2. FANGIRL
S1-8: Multiple – 4. ZAPATEO, 5. SKY COMMAND & 2. KIKU
S1-7 Queen of the Turf Stakes
LEVANTE performed excitingly well in her last race, behind ANAMOE in the G1 George Ryder Stakes and is a genuine contender racing back against her own sex. She’ll need a few favours in the run with traffic to deal with turning for home, but she’s a classy four time G1 winner and likely to pass most. If the track bias by this time is favouring those running on down the middle, she’s the horse I’d want to be on.
ALCOHOL FREE heads the ratings for the G1 Queen of the Turf Stakes after being purchased by Yu Long Investments for a staggering amount of money. The four time G1 winning mare hasn’t raced for over eight months but appeared ready to go in a Randwick barrier trial win. Running third behind mighty BAAEED in the G1 Sussex Stakes at Goodwood last campaign, she must be seriously regarded.
FANGIRL has gone agonisingly close at three of her past four attempts and you wouldn’t begrudge her a win. She’s a genuine G1 member who’s bumped into the star of Australian racing, ANAMOE, on a regular occasion. With his absence, she only has to hold that form on the rain affected track to be in it again.
SIRILEO MISS has taken her form to an entirely new level this campaign and shouldn’t be dismissed, despite the depth of this G1 contest. Her five and a half lengths victory in the G2 Sunline Stakes at Moonee Valley was a career high performance and dominant display. If she transitions that form to the clockwise direction and copes with the prevailing track conditions, she goes close.
HOPE IN YOUR HEART is on the quick back up from day one of the Championships after a cracking effort in the G1 Doncaster Mile over 1,600m in her last start. Her effort in the G1 Coolmore Classic prior was solid and she’s drawn to do no work in the run. The amount of cushion expected in the track by race day is exactly what she requires, so she’s therefore difficult to overlook.
SELECTIONS: 3. LEVANTE, 1. ALCOHOL FREE, 2. FANGIRL, 7. SIRILEO MISS & 5. HOPE IN YOUR HEART
S1-8 Sapphire Stakes
ZAPATEO is expected to run favourite for the powerful Godolphin stable with James McDonald to ride. Her recent win in the G3 Birthday Card Stakes was exceptional and suggested she’ll be hard to beat again next time out. A change in track conditions, combined with an awkward barrier, do however create some vulnerability.
SKY COMMAND has needed the two runs back to find her rhythm and I’d be expecting her to improve noticeably. She won third up last campaign on a very heavy track and is drawn well enough to get forward in the run. Her course and distance stats are fabulous and at a nice price she runs a race.
KIKU has been freshened since her trip to Queensland where she ran good races in defeat. A couple of barrier trials have been witnessed in the lead up to her return and she appears ready to roll. It won’t be an easy race for any of the competition to win but her fresh record is highly ranked.
JUAN DIVA hasn’t been to the races since late last year where she was competitive without winning in three Listed contests. She arrives here fit a well according to the two recent barrier trials at Rosehill, which displayed her in good light. Tim Clark has an excellent record aboard and I’d be putting her in as a high end chance.
PRINCESS GRACE is one of the most intriguing runners on the day as she makes her Australian debut for trainer Chris Waller. The 6YO mare brings form from America, where she won at G2 level twice and placed three times at G1. Her two barrier trials under James McDonald were fair with the wet conditions an unknown. It’ll be interesting to see the market fluctuations because she’s the best horse on ratings.
SELECTIONS: 4. ZAPATEO, 5. SKY COMMAND, 2. KIKU, 7. JUAN DIVA & 1. PRINCESS GRACE
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