 Expert - Naohiro Goda | |
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| Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin. | |
Expert Column for Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) Day (S1) (Naohiro Goda)
S1-1 4yo and up 1 win
This is the allowance race for one time winning 4YO and upper at 1,800m dirt course. Front runners and runners which track leaders closely tend to enjoy good results on the dirt track at Nakayama and this tendency predominates at the current meeting.
My favourite is MONETA D’ORO, trained by Yoshitada Munakata for G1 Racing. While he is by HEART’S CRY, winner of three graded stakes on turf, including G1 Dubai Sheema Classic, MONETA D’ORO has run well in the last two starts on dirt. In the allowance race for one time winners over the same course and distance as this race on 18th March, MONETA D’ORO tracked front runner closely and failed to catch ROYAL DANCE, who completed wire-to-wire victory, by head. I expect he should hit the front soon after the break or follow the pace in this allowance race, and I believe this 4YO colt should have every chance to win this race if he re-produces the form of the previous start on Sunday.
My second choice is HELLO SABRINA, who is also by HEART’S CRY. She wore blinker for the first time, which worked well, in the allowance race for one time winners over the same course and distance as this race on 25th March. HELLO SABRINA tracked the front runner from second position and ran much better than recent starts, finishing second. She is a big filly and I assess she has plenty of room to improve.
PEISHA JUNE finished within the first five in all of the last seven starts at this class and I understand the 5YO horse by CREATOR is the most consistent runner in this field. And he has finished second for three times in the race at 1,800m dirt course at Nakayama and this is his favourite course, although he does not have tactical speed to track leaders closely. I judge PEISHA JUNE should have a good chance to finish within the first three in this race.
BULLET FLY, who finished fourth in the allowance race for one time winners at Nakayama on 26th March is my fourth choice. While the dirt track at Nakayama on that day was muddy, which BULLET FLY disliked, the 4YO colt by FURIOSO delivered strong challenge on homestretch, covering final 600m for 38.3 seconds, which was the quickest in 12 runners. I believe smaller field here should help him.
My fifth choice is MAJOR CHRONICLE, who is full brother to MAJOR EMBLEM, winner of G1 Hanshin Juvenile Fillies and G1 NHK Mile Cup. While the expectation for him was high, he failed to collect a win at JRA and was transferred to NAR. After winning two races at Oi Racecourse, MAJOR CHRONICLE was sent back to JRA. Although he was beaten seventh in the allowance race at Nakayama on 5th March, I think we should not forsake him after only one bad performance.
SELECTIONS: 7. MONETA D’ORO, 6. HELLO SABRINA, 5. PEISHA JUNE, 9. BULLET FLY & 10. MAJOR CHRONICLE
S1-2 4yo and up 1 win
This is the allowance race for one time winning 4YO and upper at 1,200m dirt course at Nakayama. Front runners and runners which track leaders closely tend to enjoy good results on the dirt track at Nakayama and this tendency predominates at the current meeting.
My favourite is NISHINO COGNAC, trained by Daishi Ito for Shigeyuki Nishiyama. The 4YO colt by DISCREET CAT won the maiden over the same course and distance as this race on 26th March 2022. Since then, he struggled to compete against one time winners, however, he ran much better in allowance race at Nakayama on 25th March than recent starts and finished second, beaten by half a length. The time he recorded in the allowance race, 1 minute and 11.3 seconds, is faster than standard and I assess he is now improving. NISHINO COGNAC started in races over 1,200m on dirt at Nakayama for four times, won one of them, finished second twice and third once. It is obvious that this is his favourite course.
My second choice is MOVE. Last two starts of the 4YO colt by LANI were allowance races over 1,200m on dirt at Nakayama, and he finished fourth and third. I regard his performance in allowance race on 1st April highly, as he dwelt coming out of stalls and had traffic problem on homestretch. I feel that he should have won that race if he had clear traffic. I judge MOVE has a good chance to finish within first two this time.
My third choice is DUAL CAREER, who has finished second in allowance race for one time winners over 1,200m on dirt at Nakayama for three times. The time which the 7YO horse by WAR FRONT recorded in allowance race on 1st April, 1 minute and 11.3 seconds, is faster than standard, for example, winning time of allowance race for two time winners on following day at Nakayama was 1 minute and 11.1 seconds. As there are some competitors with speed in this field, he needs to break quickly to control the race at front.
QUEEN ADVANCE, who finished fourth in allowance race for one time winners at Nakayama on 1st April is my fourth choice. I am impressed with her breeze on Wednesday morning at Miho Training Centre and I am sure her condition is improving. I judge the 6YO mare by KINSHASA NO KISEKI is capable to finish within first four in this field.
MEINER CITRUS, who has finished within first three at this class for three times, is my fifth choice. After the poor performance at Tokyo on 8th October 2022, he was given six months break for refreshing and has been trained well in the morning at Miho Training Centre in recent weeks.
SELECTIONS: 13. NISHINO COGNAC, 1. MOVE, 5. DUAL CAREER, 6. QUEEN ADVANCE & 15. MEINER CITRUS
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 13. NISHINO COGNAC
Selections – 1. MOVE, 5. DUAL CAREER, 6. QUEEN ADVANCE & 15. MEINER CITRUS
S1-3:
Banker – 6. MOKA FLOWER
Selections – 15. SCINTILLATION, 2. HAPPY AWESOME, 8. LOGI LET & 5. SATONO ZENOBIA
S1-3 Nojimazaki Tokubetsu
Nojimazaki Tokubetsu is a stakes race for two time winning 4YO and upper fillies and mares conducted at 2,000m turf course at Nakayama, which is over the same course and distance as Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas), feature race of the day.
My favourite is MOKA FLOWER, 4YO filly by SCREEN HERO. MOKA FLOWER graduated the class for one time winners at Kokura on 4th February. She started at the class for two time winners twice since then and finished second and fourth respectively. While the going at Hanshin on 26th March was yielding, which is not suitable for MOKA FLOWER, she was still able to finish fourth in that race. I judge I should regard this performance highly. She has run over 2,000m on turf at Nakayama last December and finished second. I believe this is her favourite course and distance. And it is an important factor that Damian Lane is booked for MOKA FLOWER in this race, and I pick her as my first choice with assurance.
I believe the strongest opponent for MOKA FLOWER is SCINTILLATION, ridden by Christophe Lemaire. The filly by LORD KANALOA finished third in G3 Flower Cup at Nakayama on 21st March 2022 and was regarded as a Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) contender. However, she had a series of training setback and was sidelined for ten months. SCINTILLATION returned to racecourse on 21st January 2023 and finished fourth in a stakes race for two time winners at Nakayama. I understand it was not a bad performance, as she needed the race, and her condition has been improving since then. I believe SCINTILLATION is competitive in this field and she is my second choice.
My third choice is HAPPY AWESOME, trained by Hideaki Fujiwara for Yukio Baba. Although the mare by DEEP IMPACT was well beaten over 1,800m at Kokura on 12th February, there were some excuses, as it was the first start for her since August 2022 and also the first start for her at the class for two time winners. HAPPY AWESOME ran much better over 1,800m at Nakayama on 12th March, when she dwelt coming out of the stalls and was still able to finish third. If she re-produces the form of that race, she has every chance to finish within the first three in Nojimazaki Tokubetsu.
LOGI LET, who finished second over 1,800m at Nakayama on 12th March, being 1.2 lengths ahead of HAPPY AWESOME, is my fourth choice. It was a good performance as it was the first start for the filly by LOGI UNIVERSE since September 2022. She is trained much sharper in the morning at Miho Training Centre since then.
SATONO ZENOBIA, who graduated the class for one time winners at Kokura on 26th February, when she won the allowance race by 1.3 lengths, is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 6. MOKA FLOWER, 15. SCINTILLATION, 2. HAPPY AWESOME, 8. LOGI LET & 5. SATONO ZENOBIA
S1-4 Tonegawa Tokubetsu
Tonegawa Tokubetsu is a stakes race over 1,800m on dirt course at Nakayama.
My favourite is WAHNFRIED, trained by Takahisa Tezuka for Carrot Farm. The colt by LEONTES graduated the class for one time winners at Tokyo on 13th November. He started at the class for two time winners twice since then and finished third and second. When he finished third in the allowance race at Nakayama on 15th January, he raced wide but fought on well late and just caught over before finish. And when he finished second in the allowance race at Nakayama on 26th February, he jumped from the barrier 12 and was forced wide trip all way through. From those performances, I judge WAHNFRIED has an ability to graduate this class easily and I select WAHNFRIED as my first choice with assurance.
My second choice is QUEEN’S MIMOSA, as I regard her performance in the allowance race over the same course and distance as this race on 25th March highly. This mare by SINISTER MINISTER graduated the class for one time winners at Nakayama on 22nd January and she competed against two time winners as well as male runners for the first time in the allowance race on 25th March. And it is the most important factor that the allowance race on 25th March was very slowly-run race, as the front runner clocked 50.9 seconds at 800m pole. In such slowly-run race, the position of QUEEN’S MIMOSA was 11th in 15 runners field and she delivered the strong challenge on homestretch, to finish third, covering final 600m for 36.6 seconds, the quickest in 15 runners. As there are several runners with speed in the field of Tonegawa Tokubetsu and I expect the race should progress with good tempo, I believe QUEEN’S MIMOSA has a good chance to finish within the first two.
Provided that the races are conducted at Nakayama, one of the most consistent runner at the class for two time winners in this field is YONKU, as he started seven times in races for two time winners at Nakayama and finished within first five in all seven starts. Although he is now 7YO, he is still full of vigor and it is encouraging factor that Yutaka Take is booked for him on Sunday. YONKU is my third choice.
SUZUKA RUBICON, who has finished fourth at this class twice last year, is my fourth choice. While this is the first start for him since 19th November 2022, he has been trained well at Miho Training Centre and I think he is ready to run his race.
My fifth choice is TEN WAR CRY. He finished sixth over 1,800m at Nakayama on 1st April and I judge it was not a bad performance, as it was the first start for him since June 2022. And he has collected two wins at 1,800m dirt course at Nakayama and I believe this is his favourite course.
SELECTIONS: 3. WAHNFRIED, 16. QUEEN’S MIMOSA, 5. YONKU, 2. SUZUKA RUBICON & 11. TEN WAR CRY
S1-5 Shunrai Stakes
Shunrai Stakes is Listed race over 1,200m on turf.
A runner with the highest profile in the field is MAD COOL, who finished third in G3 Silk Road Stakes at Chukyo on 29th January. As NAMURA CLAIR and FIRST FORCE, first and second finisher in G3 Silk Road Stakes, finished second and first in the G1 Takamatsunomiya Kinen at Chukyo on 26th March subsequently, it is obvious that we must regard the form of G3 Silk Road Stakes highly. Although the 4YO colt by DARK ANGEL suffered quarter crack and skipped G1 Takamatsunomiya Kinen unfortunately, he is fine now and is trained well at Ritto Training Centre. G1 Sprinters Stakes at Nakayama on 1st October is in sight of Manabu Ikezoe, who trains MAD COOL, and it is the reason why Ikezoe selects this race, which is conducted over the same course and distance as G1 Sprinters Stakes, for MAD COOL. While he is assigned 127lbs, the co-heaviest weight, by JRA’s official handicapper, he is a big horse and I do not think the weight will impede his performance.
My second choice is MIGNON PERLE, trained by Hitoshi Kotegawa for Normandy Thoroughbred Racing. The 7YO mare by MATSURIDA GOGH ran well in the last two starts, both are 1,200m open Handicap – she finished third at Hanshin on 17th December and fourth over the same course and distance as Shunrai Stakes on 14th January. While the tempo in that open Handicap in January was favourable for front runner and runners who tracked leaders closely, MIGNON PERLE made up ground from seventh position and I understand I should regard this form highly. And her weight, 117lbs, looks attractive.
My third choice is JUBILEE HEAD, who won the open Handicap over 1,200m at Nakayama on 14th January, being 1.8 lengths ahead of MIGNON PERLE. While the 6YO horse by LORD KANALOA was beaten fifth in the G3 Ocean Stakes at Nakayama on 4th March, he finished within two lengths from the second finisher and I reckon it was not a bad performance. And I believe 1,200m turf course at Nakayama is his favourite course since he has started there for five time, won two of them, finished second and third once.
LADY BALLANTINE, who won the allowance race for three time winners over the same course and distance as Shunrai Stakes on 11th March is my fourth choice. It is note-worthy that her winning time in last race, 1 minute and 7.4 seconds, is exactly the same as G3 Ocean Stakes, conducted at Nakayama a week before. I believe 1,200m is suitable trip for the 4YO filly by SATONO ALADDIN and she should be competitive at this class.
JASPER JACK, who won the Listed Lapis Lazuli Stakes over the same course and distance as Shunrai Stakes on 4th December 2022, beating SHINE GARNET, who is a graded stakes winner, is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 10. MAD COOL, 13. MIGNON PERLE, 6. JUBILEE HEAD, 4. LADY BALLANTINE & 8. JASPER JACK
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 10. MAD COOL
Selections – 13. MIGNON PERLE, 6. JUBILEE HEAD, 4. LADY BALLANTINE & 8. JASPER JACK
S1-6:
Banker – 5. HRIMFAXI
Selections – 1. SOL ORIENS, 7. PHANTOM THIEF, 15. BELLAGIO OPERA & 8. TOP KNIFE
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 10. MAD COOL, 13. MIGNON PERLE & 6. JUBILEE HEAD
S1-6: Multiple – 5. HRIMFAXI, 1. SOL ORIENS & 7. PHANTOM THIEF
S1-7: Multiple – 9. HO O ECLAIR, 11. TIME OF FLIGHT & 6. SOUTHERN NIGHTS
S1-6 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas)
While the G1 Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas), first leg of Triple Tiara for 3YO fillies a week ago was won of the hot favourite, there is no outstanding runner in G1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas), first leg of Japan’s Triple Crown at Nakayama on 16th April and it is not very easy to decipher the scenario.
My favourite is HRIMFAXI, as I regard his performance in G3 Kisaragi Sho on 5th February highly. This race was conducted at Chukyo in the past three years due to the renovation of tracks and grandstand of Kyoto Racecourse. The winning time, 1 minute and 59.7 seconds, recorded by HRIMFAXI in 2023, is the fastest in those three years. Although the colt by RULERSHIP never run at Nakayama, I believe Nakayama is suitable track for HRIMFAXI as he has good speed and is able to track leaders closely. In addition, HRIMFAXI can use strong late-kick, regardless the pace of race. Although it is a matter of concern that his mentality is still infantile, Damian Lane, who is booked for HRIMFAXI on Sunday, is an accomplished rider and I believe Damian will lead him smartly to the winners’ circle.
My second choice is SOL ORIENS, unbeaten winner of G3 Keisei Hai at Nakayama on 15th January. Keisei Hai was only the second start for the colt by KITASAN BLACK and he behaved childishly, bearing out at the top of homestretch. However, he still win Keisei Hai impressively, covering final 600m for 34.5 seconds, the quickest among the nine runners, and I believe SOL ORIENS is as talented as HRIMFAXI. While I reckon SOL ORIENS is more Derby type, rather than Satsuki Sho type, I do not hesitate to select him as my second choice here.
Three out of last ten winners of G3 Kyodo News Hai would become the winner of G1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) subsequently and the 1,800m turf race at Tokyo in February is recognized as the most successful prep race for G1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas). PHANTOM THIEF, winner of this year’s G3 Kyoto News Hai, is my third choice. The winning time recorded by PHANTOM THIEF, 1 minute and 47.0 seconds, is faster than standard time and it is an encouraging factor that Christophe Lemaire selects this horse as his mount in this G1 from several other horses which he could ride.
BELLAGIO OPERA is my fourth choice. The colt by LORD KANALOA is the winner of three races from the same number of start, including G2 Spring Stakes at Nakayama on 19th March, and it is good to hear that Hironobu Tanabe is booked for him on Sunday.
TOP KNIFE, who finished second in all of last three starts, including G1 Hopeful Stakes over the same course and distance as Satsuki Sho last December, is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 5. HRIMFAXI, 1. SOL ORIENS, 7. PHANTOM THIEF, 15. BELLAGIO OPERA & 8. TOP KNIFE
S1-7 Sunshine Stakes
Sunshine Stakes is conducted at 2,500m turf course at Nakayama. I understand this is the most puzzling race to prefigure on the card at Nakayama on this raceday, as there is no outstanding runner in the field.
My favourite is HO O ECLAIR, who performed well in the last two starts at the class for three time winners. The 6YO horse by BLACK TIDE finished third in an allowance race over 3,000m at Hanshin on 26th February, despite it was the first start for him since 30th October. He finished third again in his last start at Hanshin over 2,400m on 26th March, carried 128lbs. This time, he will carry 126lbs here, which is the co-heaviest in the field, however, I am sure it will not bother him at all.
My second choice is TIME OF FLIGHT, who graduated the class for two time winners at Hanshin on 26th November 2022. The 4YO colt by DEEP IMPACT has run twice at the class for three time winners since then and finished second and sixth respectively. Though he was beaten sixth in his last start at Hanshin on 26th March, the going on the day was yielding, which TIME OF FLIGHT disliked. It is a good news for the supporters of TIME OF FLIGHT that Yuga Kawada is booked for him in Sunshine Stakes. My only concern is the weight, 126lbs, which JRA’s official handicappers assign for him and is the co-heaviest in the field of Sunshine Stakes, because he is a smallish horse.
My third choice is SOUTHERN NIGHTS, who won the allowance race for two time winners over the same course and distance as Sunshine Stakes on 4th December. The 5YO gelding by TOSEN RA finished fifth at Tokyo over 2,000m on 19th February and I assess it is a good performance, because it was the first time for him to compete against three time winners, and Tokyo is not a favourable track for front runners. It looks SOUTHERN NIGHT is only runner with speed in the field of Sunshine Stakes and I expect he is able to control the race at front.
My fourth choice is HISHI GEKKO, trained by Noriyuki Hori for Masahide Abe. Although he was beaten sixth in the allowance race for three time winners at Nakayama on 5th March, it was a slowly-run race and was not suitable for HISHI GEKKO, who is a closer. He finished fourth in the allowance race for three time winners over the same course and distance as Sunshine Stakes on 24th December and he should have a good chance to finish within the first four here if he re-produces his form of that race.
BIJIN, who finished fourth in an allowance race for three time winners over 3,000m at Hanshin on 26th February, is my fifth choice. I understand 2,500m is more suitable for her than 3,000m.
SELECTIONS: 9. HO O ECLAIR, 11. TIME OF FLIGHT, 6. SOUTHERN NIGHTS, 10. HISHI GEKKO & 13. BIJIN
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