Expert - Bill Esdaile
Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races.

Expert Column for 2000 Guineas Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)

S1-1     4yo+ 0-105 Handicap

 

TEUMESSIAS FOX seemed to have improved for a six-month break when making a winning return over this 2,399m distance on Kempton’s polytrack and he has a great chance of following up. He has a smart pedigree being a full brother of G1 winner ZABEEL PRINCE and he could easily climb through the handicap ranks into Group races. Andrew Balding’s runner posted some promising performances in good handicaps last summer and the gelding operation he had before his comeback victory in March seems to have had a positive effect.

CRYSTAL DELIGHT has done well on the polytrack and tapeta since joining William Jarvis from Sir Michael Stoute last year. After bolting up over 2,000m at Lingfield in December, he chased home smart ZEALOT at Newcastle in January. He again bumped into an in-form rival when runner-up behind BERKSHIRE BREEZE over 2,400m at Lingfield in February. This son of three-time G2 winner CRYSTAL CAPELLA, from the family of top-class CRYSTAL OCEAN, has the potential to develop into a Group-race performer.

MOKTASAAB won his first two races last season after joining trainer William Knight and he was a little unlucky not to add to his tally later in the year. He has a good record fresh, so there shouldn’t be many worries about his fitness on his first start since October. His owner, former Premier League football manager Harry Redknapp, looks to have a progressive handicapper on his hands at around this 2,400m distance.

VAYNOR enjoyed a productive season last year. He twice won on turf over 2,400m and 2,800m, before signing off with a couple of tapeta and polytrack wins. Those victories came over 2,819m at Southwell and 2,660m at Chelmsford. That stamina should come in handy as he jumps in grade on his first run since November. The six-month absence shouldn’t be a problem as his trainer Charles Hills has his team in good form.

STOWELL always threatened to develop into a smart stayer when trained by John & Thady Gosden but he became disappointing. A switch to George Boughey before his final run of last season didn’t work out immediately, but he definitely has the necessary ability if his trainer can find the key to him.

SELECTIONS: 4. TEUMESSIAS FOX, 7. CRYSTAL DELIGHT, 3. MOKTASAAB, 10. VAYNOR & 1. STOWELL

S1-2     Ellen Chaloner Stakes

 

This 1,200m Listed sprint for fillies and mares has been dominated by 3YOs in recent years.

PERDIKA fits into that age group, and she has loads of experience to go with it. George Boughey’s runner rattled off four wins on the bounce at the end of last year before shipping to Dubai for a spell at Meydan. Her second behind stablemate AL DASIM over 1,200m on the turf track was a cracking effort and she returned to Europe with victory in a French Listed sprint over 1,100m at Chantilly. The form of her second behind HAPPY ROMANCE when dropped to 1,009m at Bath two weeks ago is solid and it was probably a personal best effort. The return to this longer distance will suit her.

Boughey also runs QUEEN OLLY, who was an impressive winner of a 1,200m York maiden on her debut last May. She backed it up with some excellent efforts in Group races. Her fourth behind MEDITATE in the G3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot was an excellent run and she went on to finish third in the G2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes at Newmarket (July Course). The form of those races is very good and QUEEN OLLY didn’t seem to appreciate the step up to 1,400m later in the season. She also tried the longer trip in the G3 Nell Gwyn Stakes last month and it’s no surprise to see her return to sprinting.

KIMNGRACE has done most of her racing over 1,000m but she has won twice from four tries over this 1,200m trip. She certainly looked in need of the longer distance when finishing in midfield in the Bath Listed contest won by HAPPY ROMANCE over 1,009m last month.

GALE FORCE MAYA won twice at this Listed level last season, with the second of those victories coming over 1,100m at Ayr in September. She won five times last year and was successful first time out, but it is worrying that her trainer Michael Dods is struggling for winners.

Dods is double handed as he also runs AZURE BLUE. Her victory in a 1,200m Listed sprint over this course and distance last October – when stablemate GALE FORCE MAYA was back in fourth – gives her a chance but she might just improve for this comeback run.

SELECTIONS: 10. PERDIKA, 11. QUEEN OLLY, 4. KIMNGRACE, 3. GALE FORCE MAYA & 1. AZURE BLUE

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:   
Banker – 10. PERDIKA
Selections – 11. QUEEN OLLY, 4. KIMNGRACE, 3. GALE FORCE MAYA & 1. AZURE BLUE
S1-3:   
Banker – 11. TANMAWWY
Selections – 7. BLACKROD, 19. CHAIRMANOFTHEBOARD, 13. ADMIRAL D & 2. SAINT LAWRENCE

S1-3     4yo+ Handicap

 

Charles Hills thinks there is a big sprint handicap in TANMAWWY, who captured three wins over this 1,200m last season. He also looked all over the winner when he struck the front in the last 200m on soft ground at Newbury over 1,200m last month, only to be worn down close home. TANMAWWY was a bit keen in the race, having been off the track for seven months, but he is a proven sprinter and the fact that he is equally effective on quick or soft ground is a plus. There will be a cavalry charge for this valuable sprint handicap over 1,200m, and with so many horses having trouble coping with the tricky undulations of the Rowley Mile, siding with a horse who has won or run well on the course before can be an advantage.

BLACKROD and CHAIRMANOFTHEBOARD both fit the bill, having finished first and third respectively in a blanket finish to this race 12 months ago. Like TANMAWWY, BLACKROD is also capable of coping with all surfaces. He has changed trainer twice since winning last year and is now with Roger Teal, who will have learned plenty about his new recruit from his first run for the stable on the polytrack over 1,200m at Kempton.

CHAIRMANOFTHEBOARD disappointed on his first run of the season over 1,202m at Doncaster’s opening meeting. However, he left that form well behind when a close third at Newmarket over 1,200m in the next run, and rookie trainer Jack Channon has made a good start after taking over from his father Mick Channon.

ADMIRAL D produced a career-best performance when runner-up on the July Course over 1,200m last summer. He seemed equally happy on the Rowley Mile when an encouraging fifth on his seasonal debut last month, finishing only a length behind CHAIRMANOFTHEBOARD.

I’m also interested in SAINT LAWRENCE, who has Pattern race form, having finished a close third in the G3 Palace House Stakes over 1,000m at this meeting last year. Furthermore, SAINT LAWRENCE subsequently finished sixth in the G1 King’s Stand Stakes over 1,000m at Royal Ascot. He was gelded through the winter and made a pleasing comeback in this year’s G3 Abernant Stakes over 1,200m here last month. Any rain would not worry SAINT LAWRENCE, who has twice won over 1,400m so will be staying on when others have cried enough.

SELECTIONS: 11. TANMAWWY, 7. BLACKROD, 19. CHAIRMANOFTHEBOARD, 13. ADMIRAL D & 2. SAINT LAWRENCE

S1-4     3yo+ Handicap

 

This competitive handicap is run over 1,800m, the same course and distance as the Cambridgeshire handicap, and the one to focus on could be last season’s Cambridgeshire handicap winner MAJESTIC. The 5YO son of CONDUIT flew home in that contest in September last year, relishing both the distance and good ground. Now trained by Jack Channon, MAJESTIC made a good reappearance when finishing fourth in the Lincoln handicap over 1,600m at Doncaster on 1 April. It’s likely the heavy ground wasn’t suitable that day, so with that run behind him, and now back to the scene of his biggest success to date, he heads the shortlist.

Charlie Appleby won this race in 2018 and looks to have an interesting candidate in KING OF CONQUEST. In seven career starts, this son of LOPE DE VEGA has won three times and only finished out of the frame once. He’s proven at this trip, having won over 1,800m on his last start in handicap company in Bahrain, and has course form to his name as well. He’s clearly highly regarded as he’s started as favourite on five of his six runs, and he could well make up into a Group horse in time.

SAGA has proved a difficult horse to win with, and still only has a maiden win over 1,600m to his name after nine starts. Despite that, this son of INVINCIBLE SPIRIT was unlucky not to win the Britannia Stakes over 1,600m last season. This trip may well suit, and a big run on his first start since being gelded can be expected.

One horse that finished behind MAJESTIC in the Cambridgeshire handicap was Ralph Beckett’s JIMI HENDRIX, who produced several good performances last season, notably when finishing third in the Britannia Stakes over 1,600m at Royal Ascot and then winning a competitive handicap over 1,600m at Newmarket’s July Course. He looked an improved horse when winning at Newbury over 1,600m two weeks ago on soft ground. This gelding by NEW BAY also has form on a quicker surface and gets into this race with only a standard penalty for that success, so looks set to go well once again.

CADILLAC runs in his first handicap having won several Group races in the past, and he wasn’t disgraced when finishing fourth in the G3 Darley Stakes over 1,800m at Newmarket in October. He’s been gelded in the off-season and that could help bring about a bit more improvement from this son of LOPE DE VEGA.

SELECTIONS: 12. MAJESTIC, 5. KING OF CONQUEST, 3. SAGA, 8. JIMI HENDRIX & 1. CADILLAC

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-4:   
Banker – 12. MAJESTIC
Selections – 5. KING OF CONQUEST, 3. SAGA, 8. JIMI HENDRIX & 1. CADILLAC
S1-5:   
Banker – 1. MANACCAN
Selections – 14. TWILIGHT CALLS, 4. EQUALITY, 8. LIVE IN THE DREAM & 6. EXISTENT

S1-5     Palace House Stakes

 

Jockey Ryan Moore and trainer Henry Candy operate at nearly a 30% strike rate when they team up, and they look to hold solid claims of emerging victorious again in this year’s G3 Palace House Stakes over 1,000m. TWILIGHT CALLS hasn’t been seen since last June where he finished a very good second to NATURE STRIP in the G1 King’s Stand Stakes over 1,000m at Royal Ascot. That continued a remarkably consistent career that has seen him finish first or second in eight of his twelve appearances. He was only fifth in this race last year but was drawn out wide and that probably cost him in the end, so a better showing can be expected 12 months later.

LIVE IN THE DREAM comes into this on the back of two wins in handicap company at Lingfield and Pontefract over 1,005m and 1,003m. He won both of those nicely and, while this is a big step up in quality, he was second in a Listed race at Sandown over 1,009m last season. The son of PRINCE OF LIR has won on all types of ground, so won’t mind whether the rain falls or not.

EQUALITY might have his quirks but he’s very talented on his day and could go well for last year’s winning trainer Charles Hills. He seems to be at his best when there is a bit of juice in the ground, so the forecast rain won’t be an issue. EQUALITY was really impressive at Haydock two starts ago and the form of his third at Ascot over 1,000m subsequently has been boosted too, so he’s not without a chance here.

John Ryan’s MANACCAN looks a horse on the rise having won four of his last six, including the last two. The first of those came in the Listed Rous Stakes at Ascot over 1,000m, and he followed that up with victory in the G3 Mercury Stakes over 1,000m on Dundalk’s polytrack. Frankie Dettori is an eye-catching jockey booking and, providing he’s fully wound-up on his first start of the season, he should go well.

EXISTENT could be the one at a big price. His recent form is patchy, but he tends to save his best for Newmarket as he showed when a close second in this race last year.

SELECTIONS: 1. MANACCAN, 14. TWILIGHT CALLS, 4. EQUALITY, 8. LIVE IN THE DREAM & 6. EXISTENT

S1-6     2000 Guineas Stakes

 

Given his excellent win in the G1 Futurity Trophy last year over the same 1,600m distance as this race, AUGUSTE RODIN is the one we know will definitely see out the trip in the G1 2000 Guineas Stakes. His trainer, Aidan O’Brien, has an outstanding record in this race, having trained 10 of its winners in his career, and this colt could give him another success. Having won on bad ground on his previous two starts, he should have no issues if the rain does arrive, though being by DEEP IMPACT suggests he should be even better on a quicker surface. If he was to win this, connections have already stated that they could aim for the Triple Crown.

Andrew Balding’s CHALDEAN is undoubtedly one of the main rivals for AUGUSTE RODIN, having been unbeaten over 1,400m as a 2YO, including the G1 Dewhurst Stakes. His form shows versatility regarding conditions, with wins on good and soft ground. Now, with another year’s maturity, the step up to 1,600m will present no issues to the colt, who unseated an unlucky Frankie Dettori when breaking from the stalls on his reappearance at Newbury in the G3 Greenham Stakes over 1,400m last month.

If you fancy CHALDEAN, then ROYAL SCOTSMAN cannot be overlooked considering how close he finished behind him in the G1 Dewhurst Stakes over 1,400m at the end of last season. While Paul & Oliver Cole’s contender did most of his running over sprinting distances last season, this son of GLENEAGLES has the pedigree of a miler and so better can be expected now stepped up in trip. He could be a big threat as his handlers go in search of a first Classic as a partnership.

LITTLE BIG BEAR, also from Aidan O’Brien’s stable, was an excellent sprinter as a 2YO, winning the G1 Phoenix Stakes over 1,200m by seven lengths at the Curragh. He is untried over further than 1,300m and while he has finished his races strongly, as a son of NO NAY NEVER, stamina isn’t guaranteed.

SILVER KNOTT, trained by Charlie Appleby, has the second-best form over 1,600m. He was beaten just a nose by VICTORIA ROAD in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf over 1,600m and is certainly open to improvement over this distance after a winter break. Any rain, however, will likely disadvantage him.

SELECTIONS: 1. AUGUSTE RODIN, 12. ROYAL SCOTSMAN, 2. CHALDEAN, 14. SILVER KNOTT & 10. LITTLE BIG BEAR

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 1. AUGUSTE RODIN, 12. ROYAL SCOTSMAN & 2. CHALDEAN
S1-7: Multiple – 8. EMINENCY, 3. SHAQUILLE & 11. CHASSERAL
S1-8: Multiple – 3. DIVINE LIBRA, 7. CHARTWELL HOUSE & 10. PROSPERING

S1-7     3yo 0-100 Handicap

 

In a competitive 1,200m handicap like this it could be wise to start by looking at horses that have had a prep run.

Clive Cox’s EMINENCY looked to shape well on his reappearance on the polytrack at Kempton over 1,200m last month. He was held up in the rear that day but made good late headway through the field and wasn’t given a hard ride to do so. That should have left him spot on for this race, and judging by last season’s exploits, particularly when running out of room and unlucky in a big 2YO Conditions race at Doncaster over 1,301m, he looks a horse that can continue on an upward trajectory this season.

There is an element of risk when it comes to supporting SHAQUILLE, who refused to go into the stalls on his intended reappearance last month, but when he does consent to race, he’s already proved capable of high-class form. He was thought good enough to contest the G3 Acomb Stakes over 1,400m at York last summer, and while that didn’t go to plan, he bounced back to win a competitive 1,200m handicap at the track on his next start. That form has worked out well too, with the second and third placed horses winning on their following starts. He’s potentially well drawn in stall 11 if the field gravitate to the stands’ side rail, and the booking of James Doyle catches the eye.

CHASSERAL gets in at the bottom of the weights and could well be underestimated judged on some of last season’s form. Andrew Balding’s filly finished an excellent third behind a subsequent Royal Ascot winner DRAMATISED on debut at Newmarket over 1,000m and built on that with two further placed efforts over 1,009m and 1,211m. She was an impressive winner on her most recent outing at Newcastle in September over 1,200m and this daughter of EXCEED AND EXCEL looks the type that should keep on progressing.

Eve Johnson Houghton has her yard in great form at present, and she runs the lightly raced BUCCABAY who comes here after finishing third on only his third career start at Kempton over 1,400m last month. A winner over 1,200m, he may appreciate the likely strong gallop now back to this trip and can go well.

Another horse that impressed on reappearance at Kempton over 1,200m recently was ALMATY STAR, and Roger Varian’s son of KODIAC is taken to fill out the minor places.

SELECTIONS: 8. EMINENCY, 3. SHAQUILLE, 11. CHASSERAL, 6. BUCCABAY & 9. ALMATY STAR

S1-8     3yo 0-85 Handicap

 

Here’s hoping we are playing up our winnings and not chasing losses come this tricky finale over 1,400m, which is for horses who have won no more than one race.

Charles Hills was worried that the testing ground would find out DIVINE LIBRA on his turf debut at Catterick Bridge over 1,405m last month, but the grey belied those fears when winning easily on what was his first race for five months. DIVINE LIBRA has more on his plate here, but the trainer has Group races in his mind, so he could be able to take the step up in class in his stride. Remember, DIVINE LIBRA did not make his debut until Kempton in October and has only run three times, so with this being his first handicap, he could be leniently treated.

PROSPERING, having his first race since being gelded, looked to be crying out for a return to this 1,400m when he finished off his 1,200m race strongly at Kempton last month. He has run two solid races over 1,413m and 1,433m at Southwell and Wolverhampton, but he is also not short of speed and, being by G1 King’s Stand Stakes hero PROFITABLE, he will enjoy being back on turf.

CHARTWELL HOUSE finished a close third at Newmarket over 1,400m last month. Having been off the track since October, he can be expected to improve on that seasonal debut. Furthermore, this 1,400m looks CHARTWELL HOUSE’s ideal trip. He showed promise in his first two races last year, all over 1,200m, but stepping up in trip has been the making of him.

Ryan Moore is a significant booking for top weight YACOWLEF, but he will have to play the waiting game as YACOWLEF is not yet proved over this 1,400m. He has looked very good over 1,200m, winning on easy ground at Goodwood last back-end, and he ran right up to form when second to the classy ONCE MORE FOR LUCK on his seasonal reappearance over 1,200m here last month.

In contrast, this 1,400m is the ideal trip for JAHIDIN, who is fit from three runs this spring on the tapeta and polytrack, winning at Newcastle, and he now tries turf for the first time.

SELECTIONS: 3. DIVINE LIBRA, 7. CHARTWELL HOUSE, 10. PROSPERING, 1. YACOWLEF & 9. JAHIDIN

 

 

 

 

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