 Expert - Naohiro Goda | |
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| Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin. | |
Expert Column for Victoria Mile Day (S1) (Naohiro Goda)
S1-1 4yo and up 1 win
This allowance race for one time winning 4YO and upper is conducted at 2,100m dirt track.
My favourite is NATURE THERAPY, who finished second in allowance race for one time winners at Nakayama on 9th January. While the 4YO colt by UNION RAGS had temperament issue, he tended to become too hot in prior to races, and it impeded his performance, he has recently gained his presence of mind and can behave much better now. And he has improved physically as well and I believe he can graduate this class on Sunday.
My second choice is Godolphin’s SPACE FORCE, who won Novice on 13th February 2022 over the same course and distance as this race. The 4YO colt by AMERICAN PATRIOT finished ninth in allowance race at Tokyo on 4th February, when he tried to make all and weaken at 200m pole. And then, he was settled at middle of field in last two starts and finished fifth in the allowance race at Fukushima on 23rd April last time out. It was a decent performance and I believe Tokyo is more suitable for him than Fukushima.
My third choice is AKOKURO, 4YO filly by FENOMENO, who finished second in allowance race on 11th February over the same course and distance as this race. She has inherited stamina from her sire, who won G1 Tenno Sho (Spring) over 3,200m twice, and I believe the course and distance is suitable for her.
My fourth choice is IMPERIAL LINE. He had a temperament issue and his form is not consistent. However, he is good enough to compete at this class on his day and has finished within first three twice in last four starts. And Tokyo is suitable for the 4YO gelding by DURAMENTE.
And my fifth choice is KITASAN DOSHIN. It looks the 4YO colt by KITASAN BLACK is the only runner with speed in this field and I believe he can control the race at front. He finished third in allowance race for one time winners at Tokyo on 12th November 2022 and I regard this form highly, as the winner, MAPLE RIDGE, subsequently won the allowance race for two time winners afterwards.
SELECTIONS: 4. NATURE THERAPY, 5. SPACE FORCE, 1. AKOKURO, 7. IMPERIAL LINE & 10. KITASAN DOSHIN
S1-2 4yo and up 1 win
This allowance race for 4YO and upper one time winning fillies and mares is conducted at 1,600m dirt track.
My favourite is HELLEBORE BLANCHE, 5YO mare by REAL IMPACT. Though she was beaten seventh in the allowance race for one time winners at Nakayama on 25th March, it is obvious that she prefers Tokyo than Nakayama. It was the first time for her to run at Nakayama and she could not handle the track there. She has finished second twice in allowance race over the same course and distance and it is proved that the track is much more suitable for her. She has been trained very well since last start and I am sure her conditions has been improving. I judge the time has come for her to graduate this class.
My second choice is JUNE POMPON. The 4YO filly by MAKFI finished third in allowance race for one time winners over the same course and distance as this race on 5th February, in which she was beaten nose by HELLEBORE BLANCHE. And she covered final 600m for 36.4 seconds, which is 0.2 seconds quicker than HELLEBORE BLANCHE. I have a feeling that JUNE POMPON should finish within first two, if she re-produces the form of last start.
MIGNON LUMIERE is my third choice. She has natural speed, which she inherited from her sire A SHIN HIKARI, who won the G1 Hong Kong Cup and the G1 Prix D’Ispahan. While she was beaten fourth in allowance race for one time winners at Fukushima on 23rd April, she has traffic problem at homestretch and she was unlucky loser. And I believe Tokyo is more suitable for MIGNON LUMIERE than Fukushima.
My fourth choice is METEOR D’AVRIL, who finished second in the allowance race on 23rd April over the same course and distance as this race, in which she covered final 600m for 36.6 seconds, the quickest in 10 runners. She has been trained beautifully at Miho Training Centre in the morning since last start and I am sure her condition has been improving.
And my fifth choice is GRAVILLE. Though this is first start on dirt for the 5YO mare by LE HAVRE, she has been trained well at dirt track in Miho Training Centre and I feel she can act well on dirt track at Tokyo. While her recent form is poor, she is able to run as a different horse on Sunday.
SELECTIONS: 11. HELLEBORE BLANCHE, 13. JUNE POMPON, 14. MIGNON LUMIERE, 2. METEOR D'AVRIL & 7. GRAVILLE
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 11. HELLEBORE BLANCHE
Selections – 13. JUNE POMPON, 14. MIGNON LUMIERE, 2. METEOR D'AVRIL & 7. GRAVILLE
S1-3:
Banker – 5. VULCANO
Selections – 8. EX CETERA, 1. TEN BAGGER, 4. ALMA DORADO & 10. SHOW HIDE KIRA
S1-3 4yo and up 2 wins
Allowance for two time winning four-year-old and upper is conducted at 1,600 meters turf track, which is same course as feature race, Victoria Mile.
My favorite is VULCANO, who graduated the class for one time winners on 23rd April when the 5YO horse by SPIELBERG won the allowance race over the same course and distance as this race. From his last performance, I have the feeling that he should be competitive at this class. He has strong late kick and it is obvious that Tokyo is the most suitable track for him.
My second choice is Godolphin’s EX CETERA. He had problem on his hoof and was sidelined for ten months since June 2022. The 4YO colt by EXCEED AND EXCEL returned at racing on 23rd April and won Allowance for one time winners at Kyoto, despite his body weight was around 61lbs heavier than his previous start. I believe he is competitive at this class and one of leading contenders in this field.
TEN BAGGER by MAURICE who won three G1s in Hong Kong, is my third choice. After graduated from the class for one time winners, he started at this class for five times and finished within first three for three times. I understand he is one of the most consistent runners in this field. He wore blinker for the first time in last start and it worked well. And he won the allowance race for one time winners on 2nd May 2021 at same course and same distance as this allowance race. I assess he has every chance to finish within the first three.
My fourth choice is ALMA DORADO, who is the brother to REY DE ORO, JRA Champion Colt in 2017 and 2018. After collecting his second win at Tokyo on 20th February 2022, he started twice since then and was well beaten on both starts, however, I saw him in poor physical condition. He has been trained much better since April and it looks like a different horse now. While he has won two races on dirt, I believe he can run on turf as well.
And my fifth choice SHOW HIDE KIRA, 7YO horse by DEEP BRILLANTE, who has finished within first three at this class for five times and all of those five races are over 1,600m turf race at Tokyo, He has strong late kick and he has a good chance to finish within first five in this field.
SELECTIONS: 5. VULCANO, 8. EX CETERA, 1. TEN BAGGER, 4. ALMA DORADO & 10. SHOW HIDE KIRA
S1-4 Teletama Hai
Teletama Hai is the stakes race for two time winning fillies and mares of 4YO and upper at 1,800m turf track.
ARABIAN NIGHT likes the course at Tokyo and should be able to handle wet track. She has collected both of two wins at Tokyo Racecourse. And when the mare by EPIPHANEIA won maiden at Tokyo in October 2020, the condition of turf track was soft. Although she had been struggling to compete at this class for a while, she finished third in the race for two time winners at Niigata on 29th April last time out and I believe she has a chance to finish within first two here if she re-produces the form of her previous start.
ROUGE ECLAIR, who finished second in the allowance race for two time winners at Tokyo on 22nd April, is my second choice. While she is a decent horse, she has never run the race beyond 1,600m and I am slightly worried if she can stay extra 200m.
KAYONENKA, who graduated the class for one time winners at Fukushima on 15th April, is my third choice. She finished fifth in G3 Shion Stakes in September 2022 and I believe she should be competitive at this class.
And SATONO ZENOBIA is my fourth choice. After graduated the class for one time winner at Kokura on 26th February, she was well beaten in the race for two time winners at Nakayama on 16th April, however, she dwelt out of stalls and she could not run her race. I think she has a good chance to finish well.
SELECTIONS: 7. ARABIAN NIGHT, 5. ROUGE ECLAIR, 1. KAYONENKA & 3. SATONO ZENOBIA
S1-5 Seiryu Stakes
Seiryu Stakes is one of prep races for G3 Unicorn Stakes over the same course and distance on 18th June.
My favourite is YUTTITHAM by JUSTIFY, unbeaten US Triple Crown winner, Naosuke Sugai, who trains the colt, has been selecting races on dirt for YUTTITHAM and it is right judgement. Although he was beaten second in the newcomers race over 1,700m dirt track at Sapporo on 27th August, I understand I should regard this form highly, as the winner was PERRIERE, who subsequently won the Listed Hyacinth Stakes and finished fourth in the G2 UAE Derby. YUTTITHAM won in the next two starts easily – a maiden race over 1,800m dirt track at Hanshin on 3rd December by eight lengths and the allowance race for one time winners over 1,800m dirt track at Hanshin on 28th December by three lengths. While this is the first start for him since then, the big and powerful colt has been trained well at Ritto Training Centre and I am sure he is ready to run his race on Sunday.
Another runner in this field, who looks as talented as YUTTITHAM, is Godolphin’s WAYWARD ACT. The colt by MACLEAN'S MUSIC was bought at from the US in 2020, when he was a foal, and sent to Japan. Hiroyasu Tanaka, who trains WAYWARD ACT, took time to preparing the colt for the first start and sent the colt to the maiden over 1,600m dirt track at Tokyo on 29th April. While only 2 of 16 runners in this race were unraced, including WAYWARD ACT, he was settled well at the third position and drew right away to score by eight lengths. It was very impressive performance and I believe he has a bright future. WAYWARD ACT is my second choice.
ROUGH ASIAN by ASIA EXPRESS is my third choice. After losing the first two starts, he collected his first win at Tokyo on 6th November by nine lengths. And the colt trained by Eiji Nakadate won the allowance race for one time winners on 28th January by three lengths. As JASRI, second finisher in the allowance race, had finished third to CONTINUAR in an open race on 26th November, I understand the form of that allowance race should be regarded highly. And both of his last two starts were conducted at 1,600m dirt track at Tokyo and I believe he likes this course.
JASRI, who won the allowance race for one time winners over the same course and distance as Seiryu Stakes on 30th April, is my fourth choice.
And DONDENGAESHI is my fifth choice. He finished sixth in the Listed Hyacinth Stakes at same course and same distance as Seiryu Stakes, and he has a good chance to finish within first five here, as he re-produces the form of Hyacinth Stakes.
SELECTIONS: 6. YUTTITHAM, 2. WAYWARD ACT, 5. ROUGH ASIAN, 7. JASRI & 1. DONDENGAESHI
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 6. YUTTITHAM
Selections – 2. WAYWARD ACT, 5. ROUGH ASIAN, 7. JASRI & 1. DONDENGAESHI
S1-6:
Banker – 2. STARS ON EARTH
Selections – 11. NAMUR, 16. SODASHI, 5. STUNNING ROSE & 8. LA LA CHRISTINE
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 6. YUTTITHAM, 2. WAYWARD ACT & 5. ROUGH ASIAN
S1-6: Multiple – 2. STARS ON EARTH, 11. NAMUR & 16. SODASHI
S1-7: Multiple – 10. EXULT, 6. UNAGINOBORI & 5. IHTIFAAL
S1-6 Victoria Mile
This is quality field and exciting renewal of Victoria Mile.
I understand the best horse in the field is STARS ON EARTH, winner of the G1 Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) and G1 Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks), first and second leg of Triple Tiara for 3YO fillies in 2022. This 4YO filly by DURAMENTE experienced training setback twice since then. It was revealed after G1 Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) at Tokyo on 22nd May that she had avulsion fracture in first phalanx both on her fore legs and she was sidelined for five months. And it was revealed after G1 Shuka Sho at Hanshin on 16th October that she strained suspensory ligament of near fore leg and she was sidelined again for six months. In these difficult times, STARS ON EARTH was still able to finish third in G1 Shuka Sho and second in G1 Osaka Hai at Hanshin on 2nd April. I am convinced STARS ON EARTH is the best filly in training in Japan. She is fine after G1 Osaka Hai fortunately and has been trained well for G1 Victoria Mile. Although I judge 2,000m is her best trip, 1,600m turf course at Tokyo requires runners to have stamina to stay 2,000m, and I believe it is the stage for STARS ON EARTH to show herself at her best.
2022 G1 Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) won by STARS ON EARTH, however, punters supported NAMUR as favourite in 18 runners’ field. Her performance in G2 Tulip Sho at Hanshin on 5th March 2022 was so impressive and NAMUR was regarded higher than STARS ON EARTH in prior to G1 Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas). NAMUR was well beaten in G1 Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) and her losing streak started then. It is general estimation currently that STARS ON EARTH is far better than NAMUR. We should not forget the fact that NAMUR finished second in the G1 Shuka Sho, being ahead of STARS ON EARTH. And her performance in G3 Tokyo Shimbun Hai over the same course and distance as G1 Victoria Mile on 5th February should be regarded highly. I believe the time has come to re-perceive the quality of this filly and NAMUR is my second choice.
SODASHI, who won this race in 2022 by two lengths and finished third in G1 Mile Championship at Hanshin on 20th November, is my third choice. I think it is not easy for her to achieve back-to-back win, as I understand the competition this year is much tougher than twelve months ago.
My fourth choice is STUNNING ROSE, who was runner-up to STARS ON EARTH in G1 Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) and turned the tables in G1 Shuka Sho, which she won by half a length. While I assess she is another filly with high quality, I understand 1,600m is too short for the filly by KING KAMEHAMEHA.
LA LA CHRISTINE, who won the last two starts, including the Listed Capital Stakes over the same course and distance as Victoria Mile, is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 2. STARS ON EARTH, 11. NAMUR, 16. SODASHI, 5. STUNNING ROSE & 8. LA LA CHRISTINE
S1-7 BS Eleven Sho
BS Eleven Sho is stakes for three time winning 4YO and uppers at 1,400m dirt course.
My favorite is EXULT, who finished second in the allowance race for three time winners over the same course and distance as BS Eleven Sho on 5th February. The 4YO colt was beaten fourth in the allowance race for three time winners at Chukyo on 11th March, in which he took a bad step at the entrance of far turn and was still able to finish within in one and a half lengths from the winner. EXULT has started the races over dirt track at Tokyo for eight times, won two of them, finished second for three times and third once. It is obvious that this is his favourite track. Yoichi Aoyama and Tsuyoshi Tanaka, owner and trainer of EXULT, won G1 NHK Mile Cup at Tokyo on 7th May by CHAMPAGNE COLOR, and the team is taking heart. And both of EXULT and CHAMPAGNE COLOR are colts by DURAMENTE.
UNAGINOBORI, 4YO colt by DREFONG, who had started the races on turf until earlier this year, is my second choice. Hidetaka Otonashi, who trains the colt, started to send UNAGINOBORI to races on dirt recently and this change of strategy is working well. UNAGINOBORI won the allowance race for one time winners over 1,200m dirt track at Hanshin on 19th February, won the allowance race for two time winners over 1,200m dirt track at Chukyo on 11th March, and finished third in the allowance race for three time winners over the same course and distance as this race on 23rd April. As there is a couple of horses with early speed in this field, I suppose the tempo of race should be suitable for UNAGINOBORI, who has a sharp late kick.
Lightly-raced IHTIFAAL is my third choice. The 5YO horse by KIZUNA won the allowance race for one time winners at Hanshin on 5th November and won another allowance race for two time winners at Hanshin on 28th December. Although he was beaten fourth in the allowance race for three time winners at Hanshin on 19th March, it was the first start for him since December and I think he needed the run. While this is the first time for him to run at Tokyo, I believe the track with long homestretch is suitable for IHTIFAAL, who has a strong late kick.
T O STEALTH, who finished third in the allowance race for three time winners at Chukyo on 14th January, is my fourth choice. As he won the allowance race for two time winners over the same course and distance as BS Eleven Sho on 19th November, I believe he likes this course and distance.
LIFE LESSONS, who finished second in the allowance race for three time winners over 1,400m dirt track at Tokyo on 23rd April, is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 10. EXULT, 6. UNAGINOBORI, 5. IHTIFAAL, 1. T O STEALTH & 15. LIFE LESSONS
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