Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Tokyo Racecourse – Track Analysis (Victoria Mile Day):

Tokyo Racecourse is an anti-clockwise oval track. Outer turf track is 2083.1m long, with 525.9m homestretch, which is the second longest in JRA’s tracks after Niigata. Backstretch is 400m long. There are two chutes to set the stalls for races over 1800m and 2000m. The width of the course is the widest in JRA’s tracks. The bend is gentle and it is described as “galloping course”. While it is recognized in general that the true ability of runners reflects on the results, it is the tendency that the runners who are off the pace during former part of race and deliver strong challenge on homestretch make good showing at Tokyo Racecourse. Inner dirt track is 1899m long, with 501.6m homestretch, the highest point is from 200m before the finishing line to finishing line on the homestretch and the middle of the far turn to the top of homestretch is the lowest point of the course.

This year, three turf races and four dirt races from the Victoria Mile Day will be simulcast to Hong Kong.

The feature race, G1 Victoria Mile and 4yo and up 2 wins are conducted at 1600m turf course. Starting gate is set at top of the backstretch and distance from starting gate to the entrance of far turn is 550m. While it is analyzed there is no draw bias, statistics shows middle numbers are preferable. The distance from the exit of far turn to winning post is 525.9m. 160m long sharp rise, with difference in height of 2m, begins at around 400m to 300m from home. Final 300m is flat. It is tendency that closers who have strong late kick enjoy success at this course. And this is recognized as “tough mile”, and is analyzed runners are required stamina to stay 2000m, even though the actual distance is 1,600m.Track record is 1 minute and 30.5 seconds, established by NORMCORE when she won Victoria Mile in 2019.

For the 1800m Teletama Hai, starting gate is set on chute at middle of near turn. Distance from starting gate to the entrance of bend, through which runners are led to backstretch is 160m long. It is notable that wide draw is disadvantage and tempo tends to be moderate at this course. Meanwhile, “turn of foot” on homestretch is the key factor to the result.

For the dirt races, the starting gate of the 2100m 4yo and up 1 win is set at middle of homestretch and distance from the starting gate to entrance of near turn is 236m. Statistics show that the draw of middle numbers are preferable. 600m long downslope, with the difference in height of 2m, begins at the entrance of near turn. There is slight rise at middle of backstretch and 300m long downslope begins before the entrance of far turn. Homestretch is 501.6m long and 300m long uphill, with the difference in height of 2.4m, begins at the top of homestretch. Final 200m is flat. It is recognized as “very tough course”, and stamina is required for the runners to stay.

For 1600m Seiryu Stakes and 4yo and up 1 win, starting gate is set at turf course at the final part of near turn and runners run on turf for approximately 150m from starting gate. A runner who jumps from the widest draw run on turf for 30m longer than a runner who jumps from barrier one. Therefore, wide draw is preferable at this course. Distance from starting gate to entrance of far turn is 640m and tempo at beginning of race tends to be quick at this course. After that, the route is the same as 2100m. Track record is 1 minute and 33.5 seconds, and it is not easy to complete wire-to-wire victory and tracking or rallying tactics work well at this course.

For 1400m BS Eleven Sho, starting gate is set at early part of backstretch and distance from starting gate to entrance of far turn is 442m. There is no draw bias at this course and tempo tends to be quick at this course. Various tactics work at this course, where front runners and closers have equal chance.

Last year’s G1 Victoria Mile was conducted at firm going track. LEI PAPALE, who stumbled at the break, regained her balance promptly and tracked leaders from third position. ROSA NOIR, who played role of pacesetter, clocked 46.3 second at 800m and 58.0 seconds at 1000m, which were standard fractions. SODASHI, who tracked leaders from fourth position, responded well when Hayato Yoshida on saddle started to drive at top of homestretch and hit the front soon after 200m out. The popular white horse drew right away to score by two lengths. FINE ROUGE, who had traffic problem at top of homestretch, delivered strong challenge at closing stage and finished second. SONGLINE, who tried to make up ground on homestretch, was not flashy enough and finished fifth. LEI PALALE weakened from 200m out and finished disappointing 12th.

Spring meeting at Tokyo Racecourse started on 22nd April and 14th May is eighth day of the meeting. As temporary rail is set at 3m from inside rail on turf track after the meeting on 7th May, surface of turf track should be fresh and hold good cushion on the day of Victoria Mile.

Rain is forecasted at area of Tokyo Racecourse on from Sunday 7th, to Wednesday and there could be another rain on Friday and Saturday. As it could affect the track condition, please pay attention on weather at Tokyo during the week 8th May.

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