 Expert - Luke Middlebrook's Bio | |
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| Luke has been a devout follower and form student of horse racing in Hong Kong and Singapore for over 10 years, during which time he became renowned as a leading analyst for Asian racing through various social media channels. In June 2016, Luke moved to Singapore to join the iRace Media as Chief Editor for the English edition, where he oversees all form-related and editorial content for horse racing in Hong Kong and Singapore. | |
Expert Column for Kranji Mile Day (S1) (Luke Middlebrook)
S1-1 Class 4 Handicap
KING OF SIXTY-ONE standouts here after going down by less than a length the last time he raced. He races first-up off for one and a half months break and has trialled nicely for his return. Only lightly-raced in Singapore with three starts, the Irish import is on track to break through locally in no time for last year’s champion trainer, Timothy Fitzsimmons.
SAVVY COMMAND is well exposed but is a proven track and distance performer, with one win and a third placing from six attempts, and was last seen meeting good market support to check in 1.3 lengths into third place. Though his last won was in early July 2021, this is one of the easiest races he has contests in some time.
A three-time 1,600m winner, KHAO MANEE may be better suited in Class 5 as his form suggests, but given this isn’t the strongest of Class 4s, he can measure up. He was only beaten 1.8 lengths into fourth in a Class 4 Handicap over 1,600m last start, suggesting he will be finishing close up again this week.
Old-timer GREEN STAR piques interest as he races first-up for a new trainer, Richard Lim. The 9YO is approaching one year since his last win but is well rated now and looked well in a recent trial, working to the line on the bridle without being asked to do too much. Given the lack of depth lining up in this race, in true form he has what it takes to be in the finish.
PACIFIC STAR is trying 1,600m for the first time in his 11-start career. Hailing from leading trainer Michael Clements’ yard, the 3YO warrants plenty of respect. Two starts ago, he stormed home late into second place over 1,400m, which reads good enough for a race like this.
SELECTIONS: 4. KING OF SIXTY-ONE, 2. SAVVY COMMAND, 6. KHAO MANEE, 3. GREEN STAR & 7. PACIFIC STAR
S1-2 Class 3 Handicap
SATURNO SPRING is a model of consistency which can yield a third win for 2023 this week. Last start he was an eye-catcher late into second place in a Class 2 race over 1,600m and beaten just a length. Prior, he was the second place at same class and same distance as this race. Holding his form with a quiet but likeable trial since, he is the one they all have to beat.
5YO HERO looks the next-best winning chance. Since a long layoff, the Timothy Fitzsimmons-trained gelding has been honest in three runs in 2023, winning well second-up over this distance in Class 4 before rising to Class 3 for the first time and checking in a promising third place. With further improvement to come, he should be acquitting himself well here.
Another one of Fitzsimmons’ runners, ELITE INCREDIBLE can run a big race. He is fourth-up into his current campaign was probably ridden too close to the speed last start over 1,400m when beaten only 1.8 lengths into fourth. Prior, he was strong late into third place over 1,200m. With respectable 1,800m stats, he is in with a winning chance.
7YO VITTORIA PERFETTA from the Michael Clements stable is yet to score over 1,800m but has placed twice from four tries. A proven performer at this level and boasting tactical speed, he can be in it for a long way but a win would come as a surprise.
Trainer David Kok’s 5YO REAL EFECTO can give some cheek at the lower end of the weights. It’s been a while since he last graced the winner’s enclosure, 20 Nov in 2021 to be exact, but he has been honest this season with three placings from five starts. He has good enough 1,800m form to measure up in a race of this nature.
SELECTIONS:1. SATURNO SPRING, 5. HERO, 6. ELITE INCREDIBLE, 4. VITTORIA PERFETTA & 8. REAL EFECTO
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 1. SATURNO SPRING
Selections – 5. HERO, 6. ELITE INCREDIBLE, 4. VITTORIA PERFETTA & 8. REAL EFECTO
S1-3:
Banker – 2. CITY GOLD STAR
Selections – 4. BUURAQ SIXTY-ONE, 1. PACIFIC ANGEL, 11. FADABOY & 5. CHARMINTON
S1-3 Class 4 Handicap
CITY GOLD STAR will be getting his chance to break through for a first Singapore win at start number three here. First-up, he looked a good thing beat as he was forced to race wide and without cover throughout but charged home late into second place, before racing with excuses second-up on the polytrack. He has since trialled well, switches back to turf and just needs a bit of luck on his side.
6YO BUURAQ SIXTY-ONE has been racing well recently but has been dictated to by wide draws in his two most recent starts, with the jockey riding for luck out the back. Still, he has been running on well late and not beaten far. Three starts ago, he led and gave a good sight and was only beaten in the shadows of the post.
Top weight, PACIFIC ANGEL, can give a sight. She only had her first race start on the turf last time but led too quickly and faded late, beaten 5.2 lengths into eighth place. It was a better run than it reads. With a better-timed ride, she could sneak in for a place chance.
Trainer Donna Logan’s 4YO FADABOY is back in good form, as evidenced last start when he was badly held up from the 200m until passing the 150m and attacking the line strongly thereafter. If he can show up in the same type of form, as he can be enigmatic, he is in with a chance.
Another one from the Donna Logan yard, 4YO CHARMINTON turned in a good run into second place last time for an improved effort. A two-time winner from six at the track and distance, he has what it takes to be there fighting out the finish.
SELECTIONS: 2. CITY GOLD STAR, 4. BUURAQ SIXTY-ONE, 1. PACIFIC ANGEL, 11. FADABOY & 5. CHARMINTON
S1-4 Class 1 Handicap
SKY EYE has been in sensational form in 2023, winning two from six and finishing runner-up another two times. The Jason Lim-trained gelding has won from distances ranging from 1,000m up to 1,400m, on both turf and the polytrack – one of Kranji’s most versatile performers. With a few question marks lingering over his opponents’ heads, he looks on track to score another win for the year.
Trainer Donna Logan’s 5YO KING ARTHUR had a massive 2022, winning seven races which saw his rating rise through the roof. From four starts in 2023, he is yet to get his nose in front when it matters, however he has still been racing well with minor placings to his name. The handicapper may have caught up to him now, but an honest run can be expected.
Last year’s champion polytrack horse, LUCKY JINSHA will likely be a greater price that his two starts in 2023 when he was sent off at short quotes as he switches to turf here. He has been beaten by 7.8 lengths on each occasion, so does need a big improvement to feature, however he has won on turf before and could be looking for it again at this stage of his career.
7YO THE AUGUST, runner-up to SKY EYE two starts ago, had excuses last time when racing wide throughout on-pace and weakening to 11th place. He will find this week’s race much easier and could be one to surprise at a price.
OCEAN CROSSING gets back in the run but can come home strongly under the right race shape. This is by far one of the easiest races he has contested in some time and he did check home a promising third place to SUPER SALUTE two starts ago – good form for a race like this. It would not come as a shock to see him finish in the top 3 here.
SELECTIONS: 2. SKY EYE, 1. KING ARTHUR, 3. LUCKY JINSHA, 8. THE AUGUST & 7. OCEAN CROSSING
S1-5 Novice
Plenty of good chances in this race and 3YO KNIPPENBERG will be a chance to score his second career win at his seventh race. Two starts ago, he closed off hard and fast into fourth in the local G3 Singapore 3YO Sprint before racing on-pace in the local G2 Singapore 3YO Classic, which was a fast run race and suited those off the speed. At this stage, 1,200m appears his best distance, and an improved effort seems likely.
LUCKY HERO from the Timothy Fitzsimmons yard piques plenty of interest with blinkers on for the first time. He was an eye-catcher on his local debut before racing only moderately second-up. His blinkers trial was very good, suggesting the gear will spark improvement under race day conditions this week.
3YO Irish import GREAT WARRIOR makes his local debut for the Michael Clements stable. A one-time winner from six overseas, he has plenty of experience on his side, and his Kranji trials have looked good. Though seemingly needing more ground based on his Irish form, he may get away with 1,200m first-up locally.
The only 2YO in the race, RHETT BUTLER created plenty of hype on debut with a near-last to first win over 1,100m on the polytrack, scoring easily by two lengths. It’s hard to know how he’ll measure up on turf in a harder race, but if he lets down like he did on debut, it’s fair to say he’ll be measuring up.
MONGOL WARRIOR is another newcomer from the Michael Clements yard. Bringing with him decent form, where he was a one-time winner from five under the name KHUFU in Australia and New Zealand, he looks well prepared for a forward showing first-up after winning his most recent trial in likeable style.
SELECTIONS: 3. KNIPPENBERG, 4. LUCKY HERO, 6. GREAT WARRIOR, 10. RHETT BUTLER, 2. MONGOL WARRIOR
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 3. KNIPPENBERG
Selections – 4. LUCKY HERO, 6. GREAT WARRIOR, 10. RHETT BUTLER, 2. MONGOL WARRIOR
S1-6:
Banker – 1. LIM’S KOSCIUSZKO
Selections – 7. STREET OF DREAMS, 2. KATAK, 3. HONGKONG GREAT & 6. SACRED CROIX
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 3. KNIPPENBERG, 4. LUCKY HERO & 6. GREAT WARRIOR
S1-6: Multiple – 1. LIM’S KOSCIUSZKO, 7. STREET OF DREAMS & 2. KATAK
S1-7: Multiple – 4. DREAM ALLIANCE, 6. INVINCIBLE TYCOON & 8. SABAH STAR
S1-6 Kranji Mile
Singapore’s joint highest rated horse, LIM’S KOSCIUSZKO has stamped himself the one to beat after two demolition jobs in 2023 after a failed attempt in December’s G1 Hong Kong Sprint at Sha Tin. Given the set-weight conditions of the race, he is hugely advantaged, but the big query surrounding his chances is the speed map. As seen in this race last year when the pace was on and he faded in the straight, there’s a chance that could happen again given the ample number of runners who like to go forward.
4YO STREET OF DREAMS is the new kid on the block having won his last six races. His turn-of-foot is one of the sharpest going around Kranji currently and the way he accelerates at the top of the straight is classy. His query is facing off with Kranji’s best at set-weights for the first time, after racing at the bottom of the weights in handicaps in his two most recent wins. However, his class should be carrying him a long way.
KATAK will be running a big race and has the form on the board to test the likes of LIM’S KOSCIUSZKO if he has an off day. He looked super in his most recent trial and by all reports he has come on leaps and bounds from his last-start effort. He should map well somewhere just off the speed and be right there when the whips are cracking.
Stablemate to KATAK, HONGKONG GREAT can’t go unnoticed. Last year’s local G1 Singapore Gold Cup winner has the rating needed to measure up at set weights here and is still lightly-raced in Singapore with just eight starts. The speed map is also pertinent to his chances, as he likes to either lead or be right up there on-pace.
If the pace is on, that will suit SACRED CROIX to a tee. He placed in this race last year because of a fast tempo and he is always back in the run. The distance is right up his alley and he was third to LIM’S KOSCIUSZKO two starts ago and third to STREET OF DREAMS four starts ago, so clearly he has the form required to stand a chance.
SELECTIONS: 1. LIM’S KOSCIUSZKO, 7. STREET OF DREAMS, 2. KATAK, 3. HONGKONG GREAT & 6. SACRED CROIX
S1-7 Class 3 Handicap
A handy race to finish with and 4YO DREAM ALLIANCE gets the nod. He is yet to win from three starts in 2023 but has been far from disgraced finishing in the placings, with a second-place finish to SUPER SALUTE form that has aged well. He races first-up off a 56-day break and looked very well in his most recent trial and is highly suited back in distance to 1,400m.
Other 4YO INVINCIBLE TYCOON looks the next-best winning chance despite the rise in class. He has put two wins on the board from five local starts now while often facing adversity at times. He has a big turn-of-foot when asked to go and on 120lbs can give this race a shakeup. Clearly, he has more to come.
Track and distance specialist SABAH STAR will find this race much easier after being outclassed in the local G2 EW Barker Trophy last time. Prior, he was an easy winner in race like this which brought his distance record to seven wins from 17 starts.
With the light weights, TRIDENT piques interest. He was last seen outperforming market expectation and his handicap rating with a close up fifth in the local G2 EW barker Trophy over this distance. Prior to that, he was a track and distance winner albeit in Class 4. Just a 4YO with 10 local starts, he should have more to offer.
Top weight STENMARK is erratic but has ability on his day. The biggest concern is that he is hopeless out of the gates more often than not. When he jumps with them and is able to put himself into the race early, he’s a force to be reckoned with. Yet to win over 1,400m, he has placed over the trip on two occasions, with one of those behind SABAH STAR three starts ago.
SELECTIONS: 4. DREAM ALLIANCE, 6. INVINCIBLE TYCOON, 8. SABAH STAR, 11. TRIDENT & 1. STENMARK
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