 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Derby Stakes Day (S1) by Bill Esdaile
S1-1 Diomed Stakes
You have to go back to 2014 for the last time trainer Charlie Appleby won the G3 Diomed Stakes over 1,703m, but he looks to hold strong claims of winning it again with HIGHLAND AVENUE. The 5YO son of DUBAWI is lightly-raced for his age having only run 11 times, and he has some solid form in the book which suggests he should go well in this race. He was last seen finishing third in the 2,000m G3 Gordon Richards Stakes, three lengths behind ADAYAR and ANMAAT. The winner is well-fancied for several big races, while ANMAAT has won the G1 Prix d'Ispahan since, so the form looks strong and a repeat run from HIGHLAND AVENUE would likely be good enough to win this.
There might be more to come from the consistent KOLSAI. The 3YO has had just four career starts, but is yet to finish outside of the first two, including both times this season. He ran really well in the 1,800m Listed Feilden Stakes on his first start of the season before being outclassed by the talented CICERO’S GIFT last time at Goodwood over 1,600m. Roger Varian’s colt has yet to run a bad race, but might have to settle for the places again.
If there is a horse to outrun his odds then it could be MARIE’S DIAMOND. He is at his best when the ground is quick and comes into this in good form having run well in a competitive York handicap over 2,051m last time. The son of FOOTSTEPSINTHESAND might struggle to beat the likes of HIGHLAND AVENUE here but he’s certainly no back marker given he’ll have conditions to his liking.
REGAL REALITY is the one who can complete the placings. The 8YO, running in his 28th race, is probably not the horse he once was, but he certainly still retains plenty of his old ability. He won the 2,000m G3 Winter Hill Stakes at Windsor last season and was competitive in several other decent races last too. Sir Michael Stoute’s charge has some good form at Goodwood, so the undulations of Epsom should hold no fears either.
SELECTIONS: 2. HIGHLAND AVENUE, 6. KOLSAI, 4. MARIE’S DIAMOND & 5. REGAL REALITY
S1-2 Derby Stakes
John and Thady Gosden’s ARREST looks to be among the most likely candidates to win the Derby Stakes. The FRANKEL colt has three wins to his name from five starts; the most recent of which came in the 2,457m Chester Vase Stakes. Frankie Dettori, who takes the ride at Epsom, steered the colt to an impressive six-and-a-half length win on soft ground, but ARREST seems versatile when it comes to going, having won on good-to-firm in 2022. He should be able to handle the track, whatever the conditions are.
Jessica Harrington sends SPREWELL into the mix. A three-parts brother to a 2,400m winner, he should not struggle with the step up in trip from the 2,000m Derby Trial Stakes win in May. He is two from two this season, showing that he has taken a significant step forward from last year’s promising campaign. His ability to thrive on better ground remains to be seen, however, as his only form is on soft and heavier going.
WHITE BIRCH is in with a chance on the back of his two latest starts; a win in April followed by a close second in the G2 Dante Stakes over 2,051m last month. The ULYSSES colt has demonstrated his capability in stepping up both in trip and class while still performing consistently and, as he has always run on left-handed tracks, he should be within his comfort zone at Epsom. His best form, however, has been on flat tracks, which means he needs to prove himself on an undulating course.
Eight-time Derby-winning trainer Aidan O’Brien’s AUGUSTE RODIN could bounce back from a poor run in the 1,600m G1 2000 Guineas last time out. Concentrating on his best form, winning the 1,600m G1 Futurity Stakes, and the trainer’s race record, he is top-class contender and his pedigree suggests that a step up to 2,405m will be well within his reach. As with SPREWELL, though, his suitability to firmer ground remains a question.
Two-time Derby winning trainer Charlie Appleby sends MILITARY ORDER. This son of FRANKEL has already shown that he can win against classy rivals over the distance and on the anticipated going, having recently won the 2,400m Listed Lingfield Derby Trial at Lingfield. A full brother to 2021 Derby winner ADAYAR, MILITARY ORDER’s previous form points in the direction of following in his brother’s footsteps. He is, however, against better opponents here and must step up.
SELECTIONS: 2. ARREST, 11. SPREWELL, 14. WHITE BIRCH, 4. AUGUSTE RODIN & 8. MILITARY ORDER
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (18 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 2. ARREST
Selections – 11. SPREWELL, 14. WHITE BIRCH, 4. AUGUSTE RODIN & 8. MILITARY ORDER
S1-3:
Banker – 5. ROMAN MIST
Selections – 6. SHAARA, 4. PROSPEROUS VOYAGE & 2. ASTRAL BEAU
S1-3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes
The Princess Elizabeth Stakes, run over 1,703m, gives ROMAN MIST an excellent opportunity to record her first victory at G3 level. She made all the running to land a Goodwood Listed race over 1,600m last month on her first start since leaving Tom Ward to join Archie Watson. That victory came on heavy ground but she’s got plenty of promising form on a much faster surface. She travelled really well before having to settle for third place in this race last year and there’s every chance she has improved since then.
SHAARA will appreciate the return to faster ground. She simply found the testing conditions too tough when last of nine behind VIA SESTINA in the G2 Dahlia Stakes over 1,800m at Newmarket on her first start since October. Her hat-trick of wins last season marked her down as an exciting filly and she is likely to be well up to G3 level this year.
PROSPEROUS VOYAGE took the notable scalp of INSPIRAL when landing the G1 Falmouth Stakes over 1,600m at Newmarket (July Course) last year. Considering she was well beaten by the same filly before and after that victory, the result may flatter her, but she had also shown top-class form when a runner-up behind CACHET in the 1,600m G1 1000 Guineas at Newmarket earlier in the season. It’s easy to forgive her comeback performance when only fifth in the 1,800m G2 Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket last month as the ground was way too soft.
ASTRAL BEAU had both PROSPEROUS VOYAGE and SHAARA behind her when third in the 1,800m G2 Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket. The ground will be much quicker this time and that is a big worry for Pam Sly’s filly. She has recorded most of her wins on much softer conditions and this will be the fastest surface she has encountered.
SELECTIONS: 5. ROMAN MIST, 6. SHAARA, 4. PROSPEROUS VOYAGE & 2. ASTRAL BEAU
S1-4 3yo 0-90 Handicap
It can pay to race prominently over the 1,000m course at Epsom, especially when the ground is quick, and there’s plenty to suggest JM JUNGLE has the speed to race up with the pace in this 3YO handicap. John Quinn’s runner has been a model of consistency in three starts so far this season, finishing third on two occasions before losing out by half-a-length at York over 1,000m last time. On that occasion he looked the likely winner entering the final 200m, having stormed to the front, only to run out of steam and be caught by a closing rival in the final strides. This sharper test should suit him in that regard and despite a small rise in the weights, he remains of strong interest.
RUSSET GOLD was very impressive when landing a 1,003m novice stakes at Pontefract last August, and then went on to finish a solid third on handicap debut over 1,081m at York. He appeared to have a slightly awkward head carriage throughout that race, and didn’t find much when he came under pressure, so it’s not surprising to see he’s been gelded in the off season. That could bring about plenty of improvement, and off the same handicap mark, he has to be of interest.
Tom Marquand is a notable jockey booking on the Michael & David Easterby-trained MISS BRAZEN. This daughter of BRAZEN BEAU was an impressive four-length winner on her penultimate start at Beverley over 1,000m, before then finishing sixth in the same York race that JM JUNGLE ran in. She made up good ground through the field that day to virtually hit the front in the closing stages, suggesting she remains competitive off her handicap mark.
ESTATE seemed a tricky ride when just getting up to win at Salisbury over 1,000m last time, but despite his high head-carriage he stuck on well at the finish. Andrew Balding’s son of SHOWCASING looks likely to be suited by the strong pace in this race and he could be one that finishes to better effect than many, with Oisin Murphy in the saddle.
TATTERSTALL beat ESTATE in maiden company when the two met at Wolverhampton over 1,019m last month. While he couldn’t back that effort up at York last time – finishing behind JM JUNGLE and MISS BRAZEN – it could be worth forgiving that effort as he still doesn’t look badly treated on the pick of his 2YO efforts.
SELECTIONS: 7. JM JUNGLE, 3. RUSSET GOLD, 5. MISS BRAZEN, 13. ESTATE & 6. TATTERSTALL
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-4:
Banker – 7. JM JUNGLE
Selections – 3. RUSSET GOLD, 5. MISS BRAZEN, 13. ESTATE & 6. TATTERSTALL
S1-5:
Banker – 3. CLARENDON HOUSE
Selections – 2. MOUNTAIN PEAK, 15. ANGLE LAND, 9. ANCIENT TIMES & 8. CAME FROM THE DARK
S1-5 'Dash' Handicap
Universally regarded as the fastest equine downhill dash in racing, it’s a case of ‘blink and you’ll miss it’.
On lightning fast ground the field will blitz through this 1,000m in around 54 seconds. And, while none of the last 42 fillies to try and beat the boys have won this charge down the hill, it would be unwise to leave out ANGLE LAND, one of two runners for trainer Robert Cowell, known as “the sprint king”. ANGLE LAND won last time out at Goodwood over 1,000m, a track which also favours those with plenty of speed. This filly had previously run well on this course, taking into account she had a tardy start and lost a shoe during the race.
However, Cowell might hold even stronger claims with the trip expert CLARENDON HOUSE, who won four times over this trip. He has a touch of class, having been beaten only 2.3 lengths when just out of the money in the 1,000m G2 King George Stakes at Glorious Goodwood last season. Furthermore, CLARENDON HOUSE will be sharper for last month’s prep at York over 1,000m, his first race for eight months. He just got tired in the last 200m and, like ANGLE LAND, he also lost a shoe during the race.
One who could outrun his odds is MOUNTAIN PEAK, who was only pipped a head in this 1,000m charge 12 months ago. He needed his comeback race over 1,000m at York last month, and, though in the veteran stage of his career at the age of eight, he has won every season since he was two. He also arguably produced his best form yet last summer and is another who loves fast ground.
ANCIENT TIMES performed well over 1,000m, but he has also bagged a couple of wins over 1,200m, including at this track. The ground is probably more important, and he loves it fast, so he will be in his element here.
Another likely outsider is CAME FROM THE DARK, who was only beaten a neck in the 1,000m G3 Palace House Stakes at Newmarket two years ago. Though he lost his way the following season, he has run two solid races over 1,000m this year and has tumbled down the weights.
SELECTIONS: 3. CLARENDON HOUSE, 2. MOUNTAIN PEAK, 15. ANGLE LAND, 9. ANCIENT TIMES & 8. CAME FROM THE DARK
S1-6 3yo 0-100 Handicap
There are sure to be horses well ahead of their rating in this competitive 2,015m 3YO handicap, and two sons of 2018 Derby Stakes third ROARING LION catch the eye.
The Sir Michael Stoute-trained FOX JOURNEY showed promise in three novice events at the back end of last year but looked a much-improved horse when striding clear to win on handicap debut at Newmarket last month. He was pushed along over 400m from the finish but picked up strongly in the final 200m to win by 2.8 lengths, which showed his liking for this 2,015m trip. He is likely to be plenty more to come, especially on quick ground, and he can take another step up the ranks under excellent claimer Harry Davies.
MAASAI MARA is another son of ROARING LION who we are unlikely to have seen the best of yet. Once touted as a potential Derby Stakes prospect, he has been kept busy through the early part of the season, winning a novice at Kempton over 2,199m and then bumping into a potential Group horse when second on handicap debut over 2,399m. John & Thady Gosden’s runner put that behind him when winning at Ascot over 1,993m last time on soft ground and lighter weights than previous start, so remains of interest back on a sounder surface.
Another horse that is bound to be suited by the quick conditions at Epsom is Ralph Beckett’s PROMOTER. Most of this son of SHOWCASING’s four runs to date have come on a softer surface and he is yet to run beyond 1,515m, but on pedigree both the ground and step up in trip are expected to suit. He looked to be in need of the run on seasonal reappearance at Chester over 1,515m and that should have left him race-fit and on a workable mark for his second handicap start.
Stablemate to MAASAI MARA, TORITO cannot be left out of the equation on handicap debut. This son of KINGMAN starts off life in handicaps after winning a novice over 1,668m and then going close to backing that up in a strong race at Sandown over 1,990m last time. He is bred to be better than his initial handicap rating, and it’s not hard to see him featuring at the finish.
SILVER SWORD comes here more under the radar after winning a maiden at Southwell over 1,612m, but it’s worth noting that on one start last season he got within five lengths of one of the favourites for the Derby Stakes MILITARY ORDER, so he could have scope for improvement off a lowly handicap mark.
SELECTIONS: 9. FOX JOURNEY, 6. MAASAI MARA, 5. PROMOTER, 2. TORITO & 11. SILVER SWORD
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 9. FOX JOURNEY, 6. MAASAI MARA & 5. PROMOTER
S1-7: Multiple – 2. CAIUS CHORISTER, 5. SCAMPI & 6. SEA KING
S1-8: Multiple – 4. MR WAGYU, 1. APOLLO ONE & 7. HAYMAKER
S1-7 4yo+ 86-105 Handicap
Epsom is such a unique track that it’s a big plus to have winning form over these undulations, and CAIUS CHORISTER, who is 2-3 here, ticks all the right boxes. Successful twice in the space of seven days over this 2,240m last July, CAIUS CHORISTER proved a summer revelation, winning five races. She races with so much exuberance that she simply grinds her rivals into submission with her catch-me-if-you-can tactics.
The winning run came to an end in the prestigious handicap over 2,771m at York’s Ebor meeting, by which time CAIUS CHORISTER had shot up the handicap. Even so, she still managed to beat all except the smart SOULCOMBE, who has since become a Group horse in Australia. The cobwebs will have been blown away by her comeback run over 2,015m here in April, but back up in trip on faster ground and with Ryan Moore booked to ride, CAIUS CHORISTER will still take a lot of catching.
SCAMPI is also a different horse now than he was when he finished fifth in that same 2,015m race. He showed the expected improvement three weeks later in a competitive handicap over 2,371m at York’s meeting. SCAMPI travelled like a dream and quickened up to put his seal on the race. He takes the expected weight-rise but may not be finished winning yet.
Few trainers could boast better figures during May than Sir Mark Prescott Bt, who has been rattling home the winners. SEA KING is stoutly-bred and lightly-raced, and his best run so far have come on fast ground, including when he won at Doncaster over 2,400m 13 months ago. He had the perfect pipe-opener to his 4YO season, finishing second in a slowly-run handicap at Kempton over 2,399m. He is not an easy ride in that he persistently hangs left, but a truly-run race would bring out the best of him.
SHEER ROCKS got the 2,392m well when trying the trip for the first time at last year’s Shergar Cup at Ascot, so he commands much respect. He goes on any ground, and he made a winning seasonal debut back at Ascot over 2,392m last month in what looked a competitive handicap.
Irish raider JUNGLE COVE looked smart when winning at Ascot over 1,594m and Leopardstown over 2,000m last year. He has an explosive turn of foot, and, though untried at this distance, if he is produced late he could surprise.
SELECTIONS: 2. CAIUS CHORISTER, 5. SCAMPI, 6. SEA KING, 7. SHEER ROCKS & 4. JUNGLE COVE
S1-8 4yo+ 86-105 Handicap
Last year’s winner MR WAGYU looks to have a great chance of retaining the trophy in this 1,203m contest. He showed a tremendous attitude to narrowly land this race 12 months ago and he went on to win a competitive 1,300m handicap at Curragh in Ireland the following month. His consistency later in the year was good to see, as he held his form well in hot races into September. He appears to be coming to the boil this season having run with promise from an unhelpful draw when seventh over 1,200m at York last month. That means he’s followed a similar path to the one he took to this race last year.
APOLLO ONE was placed at G3 level as a 2YO, so he always had the potential to come good again at some stage. He finished last year strongly when landing the London Sprint Series Final over 1,200m on Kempton’s polytrack. There was a lot to like about his return from a six-month break when third behind race-fit PROBE over 1,200m at Newmarket last month and he should sharpen up for that run. Turning courses like Epsom hold no fears for him.
HAYMAKER progressed well last season and he appears to have improved again following his return from a seven-month break. He stepped up on his promising third over 1,200m at Newbury on his comeback when recording a smooth 1,211m victory at Windsor last month. The form of that race looks solid and Hughie Morrison’s consistent sprinter is capable of taking another step forward.
PROBE came from way off the pace when winning the competitive 1,200m Newmarket handicap that APOLLO ONE finished third in last month. He’s been in great form in three starts since joining Jennie Candlish from Irish trainer Dermot K Weld. The hood he has worn for his three starts since joining his new trainer has clearly helped and his turn of pace will always make him dangerous.
INDIAN CREAK has a good record at Epsom. He has won once and been runner-up twice in three visits to this unique track. Last month’s third behind HAYMAKER over 1,211m at Windsor leaves him a bit to find but his course experience gives him a chance of reversing the form.
SELECTIONS: 4. MR WAGYU, 1. APOLLO ONE, 7. HAYMAKER, 2. PROBE & 12. INDIAN CREAK
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