 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Prince of Wales's Stakes Day (S2) (Bill Esdaile)
S2-1 Queen Mary Stakes
Favourites have a strong record in the G2 Queen Mary Stakes over 1,000m with four winning in the last 10 years. Trainer Karl Burke won this last year with a once-raced filly, DRAMATISED, who was sent off favourite, and he looks to have another strong candidate at the top of the market this time in the form of BEAUTIFUL DIAMOND. This daughter of TWILIGHT SON was a highly impressive winner on debut at Nottingham over 1,007m earlier this month, when only having to be pushed out to win by three and a half lengths. There should be plenty of improvement to come from this tall, imposing filly and given her stable once again have such a lot of talented juveniles this season, she must be of strong interest.
In fact, GOT TO LOVE A GREY could well make it a one-two in the race for the Burke stable. Another imposing sort, she got off the mark impressively at Nottingham over 1,007m back in April, when stretching clear to win by six lengths on soft ground. She followed that with a tough performance when making all the running to win a Listed contest at York over 1,000m; form that has worked out well since, with the runner-up subsequently going on to place in Listed company in France. That is among the best form on offer and she can get into the shake up.
US trainer Wesley Ward has won this race three times in the last 10 years and has a runner here, but CRIMSON ADVOCATE may represent the USA’s best chance. George Weaver’s filly won on her second start at Gulfstream Park over 1,000m last month, showing bright early speed to lead up and comfortably hold off a strongly-fancied Wesley Ward-trained rival at the finish. That ability to break well but also maintain the gallop will be crucial at this stiffer track and she could have what it takes to go close. Even over the minimum trip, with the uphill finish, you still need to stay well at Ascot.
FLORA OF BERMUDA looks the type to really appreciate the stiff finish and likely strong gallop in this contest, as she flashed home to grab second late on after getting no luck in running at Beverley over 1,000m last time.
Another impressive debut winner, BORN TO ROCK made all to secure victory at Yarmouth over 1,038m last month. That was a race run in a slow time, though, so she may have been flattered slightly, and could be vulnerable stepping up to this grade.
SELECTIONS: 3. BEAUTIFUL DIAMOND, 14. GOT TO LOVE A GREY, 9. CRIMSON ADVOCATE, 11. FLORA OF BERMUDA & 5. BORN TO ROCK
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-1:
Banker – 3. BEAUTIFUL DIAMOND
Selections – 14. GOT TO LOVE A GREY, 9. CRIMSON ADVOCATE, 11. FLORA OF BERMUDA & 5. BORN TO ROCK
S2-2:
Banker – 9. TARRABB
Selections – 6. YERWANTHERE, 3. CRYSTAL CAPRICE, 12. TAMARAMA & 16. LADY EROS
S2-2 Kensington Palace Fillies' Handicap
This is just the third running of the 1,600m Kensington Palace Stakes and it looks a wide-open handicap. Considering both winners of the race have returned at double-figure odds, it might be worth hunting for a bit of value here and TARRABB looks exactly that. She didn’t run as a 2YO, but enjoyed a good campaign last year winning three times, with her win at Haydock over 1,593m in August particularly noteworthy. TARRABB beat subsequent dual Listed winner QUEEN AMINATU that day, and with that rival now rated significantly higher, a repeat performance might be good enough to win this.
CRYSTAL CAPRICE finished ahead of TARRABB last season over this course and distance, and Sir Michael Stoute’s filly looks a player here. A lofty handicap mark does make her task difficult, but she’s very well-bred and has run well in better company than this, so needs to consider under Ryan Moore.
Frankie Dettori’s rides always need consideration at Royal Ascot and he’s aboard TAMARAMA. She comes into this after a career best in a Kempton handicap over 1,600m early this month – Dettori’s first go on her. She did get the run of the race that day, but showed a really good attitude and that should stand her in good stead in a competitive race like this one.
YERWANTHERE could be very well-handicapped and connections have booked leading international jockey James McDonald for the ride. Joseph O’Brien’s charge has only had three career starts, but has won two of them, including off a very similar mark to what she runs off here at Dundalk over 1,600m in December. She only finished seventh last time in the Listed Owenstown Stud Stakes over 1,400m but found little room at the business end of the race and would surely have finished closer had she done.
LADY EROS can complete the placings. She looked to appreciate better ground when winning a Yarmouth handicap over 1,603m last time, and there could be more to come with that confidence builder under her belt. She might just be one of those fillies that takes a bit longer to realise her full potential and her connections, being trained by John & Thady Gosden, entitle her to plenty of respect.
SELECTIONS: 9. TARRABB, 6. YERWANTHERE, 3. CRYSTAL CAPRICE, 12. TAMARAMA & 16. LADY EROS
S2-3 Duke of Cambridge Stakes
PROSPEROUS VOYAGE is proven at the top level and should be well up to winning the G2 Duke of Cambridge Stakes over 1,600m. She took the notable scalp of top-class filly INSPIRAL in the G1 Falmouth Stakes over 1,600m at Newmarket’s (July Course) last year. There’s no doubt she is well up to this class, especially when she gets fast ground. The way she picked up from the rear off a steady pace to beat RANDOM HARVEST in the G3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes over 1,703m at Epsom was most pleasing.
JUMBLY developed into a smart filly last year. She wasn’t disgraced in either of the French and German versions of the 1000 Guineas, both over 1600m, before swooping late to beat the reliable OSCULA in the G3 Valiant Stakes over 1,594m at Ascot. There was a lot to like about her comeback run on her debut for Irish trainer Joseph O’Brien, having left Harry & Roger Charlton, when runner-up in a Curragh G2 over 1,600m.
GRANDE DAME hasn’t been seen since splitting FONTEYN and LAUREL when third behind FONTEYN in the G1 Sun Chariot Stakes over 1,600m at Newmarket in October. She had progressed well last season after making a successful debut in a hot conditions race over 1,600m at Ascot in April. Her only disappointing effort came at Royal Ascot last year. The G1 Coronation Stakes over 1,594m probably was too big task so early in her career and she does have huge potential this season.
ROGUE MILLENNIUM only made her debut last April and she was thrown into the deep end when contesting the G1 Oaks over 2,400m at Epsom on just her third start. She always looked likely to improve this season and she really came to life when runner-up behind top prospect FREE WIND in the G2 Middleton Stakes over 2,051m at York last month. The drop to 1,600m for the first time is an interesting move.
QUEEN AMINATU has done all her winning on all-weather tracks. She has recorded five victories on artificial surfaces, including two Listed prizes, but has yet to win on turf. Ascot tends to suit horses with good all-weather form so she should be competitive.
SELECTIONS: 7. PROSPEROUS VOYAGE, 4. JUMBLY, 1. GRANDE DAME, 10. ROGUE MILLENNIUM & 8. QUEEN AMINATU
S2-4 Prince of Wales's Stakes
A small but select field are set to go to post for this year’s G1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes over 2,005m.
William Haggas’ MY PROSPERO is expected to go very well in this having run a good first race of the year when finishing fourth in the G1 Lockinge Stakes over 1,600m in May. Beaten just a neck by COROEBUS in the G1 St James’s Palace Stakes over 1,594m at Royal Ascot last year, and subsequently finishing third in a tight finish behind BAY BRIDGE and ADAYAR in the G1 Champion Stakes over 1,993m, the IFFRAAJ colt has a good record at Ascot. That run at Newbury should have left him spot on for this and back up in trip, he holds strong claims.
LUXEMBOURG recovered from a disappointing seasonal debut in the G2 Mooresbridge Stakes over 2,000m by winning the G1 Tattersalls Gold Cup over 2,100m last month. The son of CAMELOT has won six of his nine career starts, three of which were in G1 company, showing that when he’s on a going day, he’s a really classy animal. His trainer, Aidan O’Brien, has won four of the last 15 renewals of this race, so his runners always need respecting.
An impressive winner on his seasonal reappearance at Newmarket, ADAYAR is another with a solid chance. Having won over 2,400m and 2,000m in Group company on a variety of ground, he is versatile so should handle whatever conditions are on offer. While he won the G1 King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes over 2,400m on fast ground in 2021, the majority of his form as come with some cut, so there would be a slight question as to whether he’d have the tactical speed over this trip on really fast ground, especially against some very talented middle distance rivals.
BAY BRIDGE, who finished second in the 2022 renewal of this race, must be taken seriously. Sir Michael Stoute’s charge has been placed in both of his G1 starts this season; the Prix Ganay over 2,100m and the Tattersalls Gold Cup over 2,100m, in which he finished half a length behind LUXEMBOURG. He was perhaps a little unlucky last time at the Curragh as the gaps didn’t really open as jockey Richard Kingscote would have liked. He’s a very talented horse on his day and is trending in the right direction, though would appreciate a drop of rain falling as he does appreciate a slightly softer surface.
SELECTIONS: 6. MY PROSPERO, 4. LUXEMBOURG, 1. ADAYAR & 2. BAY BRIDGE
S2-5 Royal Hunt Cup
Stand by for an equine ‘Charge of the Light Brigade’, the field size is large for this Royal Hunt Cup, runners thundering down the straight 1600m, spread right across the course. Punters should be cautious as only one favourite has won in the last 25 years, and this looks another wide-open cavalry charge.
ASTRO KING is trying to make it ‘third time lucky’, having finished second and fourth in the race in the last two years. He was trained then by Sir Michael Stoute and was unlucky not to win at least one of those races. He ran well on his first run for his new trainer Daniel & Claire Kubler when fourth at York over 1,575m last month, but he has not won for more than two years and could be pushed to confirm that form with BLUE FOR YOU, who finished only one place behind in that race.
Fresh from his winter break, BLUE FOR YOU, who relishes fast ground, ran a cracker from the outside draw, and that race will have put him spot on. He was repeatedly denied a run in last year’s a 1,600m handicap at Glorious Goodwood, where he flew home in second, but he duly went one better three weeks later when breaking the 1,575m track record at York.
INTELLOGENT has thrived since being switched to Jane Chapple-Hyam 14 months ago, being placed four times, including in this race last season, when he was beaten only half a length. He was then an unlucky third in the John Smith’s Cup over 2,100m at York, and his prep-run over 1,600m at Newbury last month suggests he is peaking at the right time.
PEROTTO, who won four times for Marcus Tregoning, between 1,000m and 1,600m, is also with a new trainer, having switched to Roger Varian. He was doing his best work at the finish in the Victoria Cup over 1,400m here last month, and over this extra distance and on faster ground he won’t be far away. He beat 28 rivals over this straight 1,600m in the Britannia Stakes at this meeting two years ago.
Godolphin have won this race twice in the last three years, and in the lightly-raced 7YO GHALY they have another strong contender. GHALY goes on any ground, as was demonstrated when he won over 1,575m and 1,600m at York and Newmarket last season. He has been off eight months but runs well fresh, so the long absence is not a problem.
SELECTIONS: 11. BLUE FOR YOU, 7. INTELLOGENT, 21. PEROTTO, 13. ASTRO KING & 10. GHALY
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-5: Multiple – 11. BLUE FOR YOU, 7. INTELLOGENT & 21. PEROTTO
S2-6: Multiple – 5. GREGORY, 3. CIRCLE OF FIRE & 9. PEKING OPERA
S2-7: Multiple – 15. MAXIMUM IMPACT, 3. BARNWELL BOY & 12. JOHANNES BRAHMS
S2-6 Queen's Vase
Coming into this year’s G2 Queen’s Vase over 2,844m, Frankie Dettori and John Gosden, now training alongside his son Thady, have both won two renewals of this 3YO contest but have never succeeded as a partnership.
That could all change this week as they are teaming up with market leader GREGORY. By GOLDEN HORN out of a mare called GRETCHEN, who won the G2 Park Hill Stakes over 2,900m in 2015, GREGORY’s pedigree suggests this step up in trip from his win in the Listed Cocked Hat Stakes over 2,240m last month should suit well.
In 2012, the Royal silks were carried to victory in this race by Ryan Moore on board Sir Michael Stoute’s ESTIMATE and 11 years later, the same trainer is represented by CIRCLE OF FIRE. The son of ALMANZOR was third on his last appearance in the Listed Lingfield Derby Trial Stakes over 2400m at polytrack, a race that saw him stay on through the line, so the step up in trip should promote some progression.
The sole representative from the Aidan O’Brien yard is PEKING OPERA, a thrice-raced son of the late GALILEO. Since his victory in a Leopardstown maiden over 1,600m in October to beat stablemate BERTINELLI, a horse who has since gone on to win the prestigious London Gold Cup over 2,000m at Newbury, he massively stepped up in trip on his latest start to win the Listed Yeats Stakes over 2,600m. O’Brien had four horses entered for this race before only declaring PEKING OPERA, something that would indicate confidence in his chance.
Another horse who won on his last start is CHESSPIECE, who was successful in a handicap at York over 2,371m in May. Out of the mare ROYAL SOLITAIRE, a G2 Badener Meile over 1,600m winner in 2016, he came from a long way back to win for Simon & Ed Crisford last time out and is a very progressive 3YO, especially on a faster surface.
SAINT GEORGE is one of the few proven stayers at 2,905m having won at the distance at Doncaster earlier this month. Andrew Balding and Oisin Murphy were victorious in this race in 2019 with DASHING WILLOUGHBY and this gallant grey, who is a son of the late ROARING LION, is sure to be one who will be galloping on towards the line in the latter stages of the race.
SELECTIONS: 5. GREGORY, 3. CIRCLE OF FIRE, 9. PEKING OPERA, 2. CHESSPIECE & 10. SAINT GEORGE
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-6:
Banker – 5. GREGORY
Selections – 3. CIRCLE OF FIRE, 9. PEKING OPERA, 2. CHESSPIECE & 10. SAINT GEORGE
S2-7:
Banker – 15. MAXIMUM IMPACT
Selections – 3. BARNWELL BOY, 12. JOHANNES BRAHMS, 6. FANDOM & 5. BOMBAY BAZAAR
S2-7 Windsor Castle Stakes
The final race on day two of Royal Ascot, the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes over 1,000m, has been won by some classy sorts, including LITTLE BIG BEAR 12 months ago.
He was, of course, trained by Aidan O’Brien, and his main hope this year is JOHANNES BRAHMS. The son of SIYOUNI has only been seen once – a win at Naas over 1,186m. He was an expensive purchase, so clearly plenty is expected, but he needed all of the 1,186m trip to win at Naas, so the step back to 1,000m doesn’t look an obvious move.
Trainer Alice Haynes has had a really good start to the season with her juvenile runners and her MAXIMUM IMPACT looks like continuing that in this race. The HAVANA GREY colt is two-from-two so far, winning on debut at Leicester over 1,000m by an impressive 12 lengths, before getting the job done at Ascot over 1,000m last time. He seems to be improving all the time, and he can take this step up in grade in his stride.
It’s hard to know how good BARNWELL BOY is, but he showed plenty in his debut win at Goodwood over 1,200m to suggest he has a serious engine. He showed signs of inexperience there as he drifted across the track, but the fact he still managed to win by over four lengths showed he could be anything.
American handler Wesley Ward won this contest back in 2014 with HOOTENANNY and he sends FANDOM over this time around. He’s only had one start, but he couldn’t have won it much easier, bolting up at Keeneland over 1,100m by 6.8 lengths. Whether he’ll get the easy lead that he got there in this race is open to question, however he was very impressive and there is likely plenty more to come.
Experience won’t be an issue for BOMBAY BAZAAR having already run three times. He’s won his last two nicely – both 1,000m races at Beverley – and is entitled to have a go at this Listed prize on the back of those victories. He’ll need to improve again to win this, though.
SELECTIONS: 15. MAXIMUM IMPACT, 3. BARNWELL BOY, 12. JOHANNES BRAHMS, 6. FANDOM & 5. BOMBAY BAZAAR
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