 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Gold Cup Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 Norfolk Stakes
Speed is the order of the day in the 1,000m Norfolk Stakes and ELITE STATUS has plenty of it. Karl Burke’s 2YO could not have been more impressive in winning both his starts. He struck on soft ground when pulling three lengths clear of his rivals over 1,003m at Doncaster on his debut and he had no problem with the quicker conditions when thrashing eight previous winners to land the Listed National Stakes over 1,009m at Sandown last month. That performance suggests he could be a top-notch sprinter.
American trainer Wesley Ward has won this race twice in the last 10 years. His AMERICAN RASCAL bolted up to win his maiden by more than 10 lengths at Keeneland over 900m in April. That race was on the dirt surface favoured by American tracks but, as a son of Ward’s dual Royal Ascot winner LADY AURELIA, he shouldn’t have too much trouble switched to turf. He clearly has the speed and, if his stamina holds out upped to 1000m on Ascot’s stiff straight course, he might be hard to catch.
DEVIOUS towered over his rivals in the parade ring before making an impressive winning debut over 1,000m at Naas early last month. He travelled smoothly through the race and came clear for a comfortable victory. There could be a lot of improvement to come from this speedy 2YO colt and he should appreciate the strong pace he is almost certain to get.
NOCHE MAGICA made an impressive debut when successful over 1,000m at Cork in April. That’s good form and he simply didn’t seem as effective over the longer distance when upped to 1,200m in the G3 Marble Hill Stakes at the Curragh last month. It was still a good run to finish runner-up and the form of that race is very good.
American raider NO NAY METS showed lightning pace to make all the running over 1,000m at Gulfstream Park last month. The ground was officially firm that day, so he should get conditions in his favour in this race. It could be that this contest is a real burn-up with several of the runners, especially the American youngsters, going flat out from the start.
George Weaver’s inmate certainly won’t lack the pace to lay up with the quickest of them.
SELECTIONS: 4. ELITE STATUS, 1. AMERICAN RASCAL, 3. DEVIOUS, 9. NOCHE MAGICA & 10. NO NAY METS
S1-2 King George V Stakes
As with virtually all of the handicaps at Royal Ascot this week you need a Group horse to win them, and there could be several potentially top-class 3YOs in the King George V Stakes over 2,392m.
Sir Michael Stoute is a master at bringing horses gradually through handicaps before stepping them up into Group races and has won this race four times in the past, so his runner PERFUSE is of strong interest. He ran into a useful rival on debut at Pontefract over 2,005m in April, but couldn’t have been more impressive when winning on his last two starts at Nottingham over 2,045m and Doncaster over 2,379m. The first of those came on heavy ground while the second was on good-to-firm, so he won’t mind what the weather does, and he could have plenty of scope from his opening handicap mark.
DAVIDEO showed very little on debut at Newbury over 1,600m last October, but built upon that when finishing second behind a smart rival at Kempton over 1,600m the following month. He looked to get outpaced there, despite trying to wind things up from the front, so it was no surprise he relished the step up to 2,000m when winning on his seasonal reappearance at Newmarket last month. Being by GALILEO, the additional 400m in this race should suit once again, and as a prominent racer he could prove dangerous if getting a good early position.
Having won twice and finished runner-up twice from four starts so far, it’s hard to knock Aidan O’Brien’s BERTINELLI, who can be relied upon to run another good race. He won the highly competitive London Gold Cup at Newbury over 2,000m when last seen, staying on strongly at the finish. That sees him line up here off top-weight, though, so he’ll need to improve again to win this, while significant softening of the ground might be a negative for him.
TAGABAWA represents last year’s winning connections of Charlie Appleby, William Buick and Godolphin. This son of NEW APPROACH was another that really looked to appreciate stepping up to 2,400m when winning on his seasonal bow at Kempton. All three of his career starts have come on the all-weather, and that’s slightly off-putting, especially with uncertainties about the likely ground conditions at Ascot.
WONDER LEGEND is one runner that would appreciate any rain falling, having made light work of soft conditions when winning at Doncaster over 2,039m in April. The form of that race has worked out quite nicely and he warrants a place on the shortlist.
SELECTIONS: 6. PERFUSE, 8. DAVIDEO, 1. BERTINELLI, 3. TAGABAWA & 7. WONDER LEGEND
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 6. PERFUSE
Selections – 8. DAVIDEO, 1. BERTINELLI, 3. TAGABAWA & 7. WONDER LEGEND
S1-3:
Banker – 1. AL ASIFAH
Selections – 7. INFINITE COSMOS, 2. BLUESTOCKING, 10. LUMIERE ROCK & 11. MAMAN JOON
S1-3 Ribblesdale Stakes
If there’s a real star in the line-up for this 2,392m contest, then it’s surely AL ASIFAH. John & Thady Gosden’s challenger has only run twice but she has been seriously impressive on both starts at Haydock and Goodwood. And it was the way she won the Listed Agnes Keyser Fillies' Stakes last time which really showed we could be dealing with a very talented filly as she oozed class to win by over six lengths. She’ll likely be a short price for this, but that looks warranted, and she should take all the beating.
Sir Michael Stoute has won this G2 prize three times and his INFINITE COSMOS looks the best of the rest. She made a pleasing debut when second over 1,600m at Doncaster before putting the experience to good use when bolting up to a Newmarket maiden over 2,000m on her seasonal reappearance. INFINITE COSMOS was well-fancied to follow up in the G3 Musidora Stakes over 2051m last time and while she could only finish third, the winner, SOUL SISTER, has since won the G1 Oaks at Epsom so it’s very solid form.
No jockey has won the Ribblesdale Stakes more than Frankie Dettori and he’s booked to ride BLUESTOCKING. The daughter of CAMELOT was victorious on debut at Salisbury over 1,600m last September and reappeared with a head second in the Listed Haras De Bouquetot Fillies' Trial Stakes at Newbury over 2,000m a month ago. She should appreciate the extra distance here and isn’t without a chance.
MAMAN JOON will likely be a big price, but she shouldn’t be totally discounted. She shaped really nicely on debut over 2,000m at Newbury and then ran a mighty race to finish fourth in the aforementioned G1 Oaks. Given connections are running her in Group company as opposed to looking for an easier task speaks volumes of the regard they hold her in, so she could hit the frame.
LUMIERE ROCK is one of the more experienced runners in the line-up having already had six runs. She’s been consistent having never failed to finish worse than fourth. Her best performance came in the G3 Staffordstown Stud Stakes at the Curragh over 1,600m at the end of last season, but she’ll need a career high to win this.
SELECTIONS: 1. AL ASIFAH, 7. INFINITE COSMOS, 2. BLUESTOCKING, 10. LUMIERE ROCK & 11. MAMAN JOON
S1-4 Gold Cup
Plenty of talent will be on show in the 3,991m G1 Gold Cup and Andrew Balding’s COLTRANE looks like going off favourite. A course and distance winner having landed the marathon race, Ascot Stakes, at Royal Ascot last year, and most recently the winner of the 3,190m G3 Sagaro Stakes – again at Ascot last month – he should go very well. He has won on a variety of going, so his claims shouldn’t be affected by changing ground conditions.
Though just a 4YO and untried over the distance, ELDAR ELDAROV is also worthy of respect. The son of DUBAWI won the 2,831m G2 Queen’s Vase 12 months ago, but failed to impress when returning to Ascot for the G2 British Champions Long Distance Cup over 3,190m that October. However, that came just a month after his success in the 2,905m G1 St Leger at Doncaster which may have left its mark. Roger Varian’s runner reappeared with a close second in the G2 Yorkshire Cup over 2,771m last month and it would be no surprise if he was to step up and land a second G1 for trainer Roger Varian.
YIBIR, from Charlie Appleby’s yard, steps up in distance for the Gold Cup. His last run in the 2,400m G3 Al Rayyan Stakes in May suggested that a greater test of stamina would be suitable for the gelding, whose dam won over 3,200m twice as a 4YO. The extra distance is unlikely to be a disadvantage and he should be competitive if the ground remains good.
The winner of this race in 2021, SUBJECTIVIST will be looking to return to winning form here. Having not run in 2022 at all due to a serious injury, the son of TEOFILO was an encouraging third of 15 in the G2 Dubai Gold Cup over 3,200m at Meydan in March. With trainer Charlie Johnston in great form currently, it would be unwise to overlook SUBJECTIVIST who will likely do better for stepping back up in distance.
ECHOES IN RAIN switches back to the flat having won the 3,827m G1 for fillies and mares in Hurdles at Punchestown in April. Having finished first and second on her last two flat starts, she should make the transition easily, although her best form is on soft, winter ground which she is unlikely to get here. Her ability over the distance is not in question, but she will have to prove she can handle quicker conditions.
SELECTIONS: 3. COLTRANE, 12. ELDAR ELDAROV, 10. YIBIR, 6. SUBJECTIVIST & 13. ECHOES IN RAIN
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-4:
Banker – 3. COLTRANE
Selections – 12. ELDAR ELDAROV, 10. YIBIR, 6. SUBJECTIVIST & 13. ECHOES IN RAIN
S1-5:
Banker – 9. DOCKLANDS
Selections – 21. GOOD KARMA, 10. RAMAZAN, 28. NAXOS & 14. CARRACCI
S1-5 Britannia Stakes
3YO contests at Royal Ascot always promise plenty of intrigue and the Britannia Stakes over 1,600m is no different.
Seeking a hat-trick for Newmarket-based trainer Harry Eustace, DOCKLANDS was a winner over this course and distance in a handicap last month. In soft conditions, he came clear of his rivals by 6.5 lengths under Hayley Turner, although he has risen considerably in the handicap for the effort. If he can the likely quicker ground, this son of MASSAAT should be a big player based on his second to CICERO’S GIFT three starts ago.
Another contender who could achieve a hat-trick of successes is GOOD KARMA for James Ferguson, who will be ridden by Daniel Muscutt. He has been victorious over 1,433m and 1,400m on his last two starts and this step up to 1,600m is interesting considering his sire, DARK ANGEL, was predominantly a sprinter. However, his dam won over the distance during her racing career and if he can translate his good performances to this extra trip then he could be dangerous.
One of the more experienced runners in the field is RAMAZAN for Richard Fahey. Although he has only been seen on the track once this season, when third in a 1,400m handicap at York, this gelding by KODIAC raced seven times as a 2YO, winning two of them. His final effort last season was a good third to GALERON in the Goffs Million over 1,400m at the Curragh, form that has been franked this term thanks to GALERON’s fourth in the G1 2000 Guineas over 1,600m and fifth in the G1 Irish 2000 Guineas over 1,600m.
Prominent Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien has sent CARRACCI for this competitive handicap on Thursday and with stable jockey Ryan Moore on the saddle. He won this race last year with THESIS and is set to ride the son of QUALITY ROAD for the first time, a horse who has form behind higher-rated stablemates, PADDINGTON and HANS ANDERSEN.
Finally, NAXOS looks to be one of the few unexposed 3YOs in the lineup that isn’t towards the front of the betting market. He has yet to race on turf having had all three starts on the all-weather, but there is nothing to suggest that he won’t handle the change in surface. Furthermore, he had to give weight away to the field on his latest start over 1,605m at Newcastle, so his victory can be upgraded and he is definitely open to progression.
SELECTIONS: 9. DOCKLANDS, 21. GOOD KARMA, 10. RAMAZAN, 28. NAXOS & 14. CARRACCI
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 9. DOCKLANDS, 21. GOOD KARMA & 10. RAMAZAN
S1-6: Multiple – 2. DRUMROLL, 10. EXOPLANET & 14. TORITO
S1-7: Multiple – 14. BIGGLES, 15. CROUPIER & 19. BARADAR
S1-6 Hampton Court Stakes
This G3 race for 3YOs over 1,993m has proved a stepping-stone to stardom for several good horses, including COLLECTION, who went on to win the 2009 Hong Kong Derby.
Aidan O’Brien feels that this is the perfect race for DRUMROLL, even though he has to give weight away, having been penalised for being awarded the G3 Gallinule Stakes at the Curragh over 2,000m in the stewards’ room. A full-brother to G1 2000 Guineas winner SAXON WARRIOR, DRUMROLL suffered repeated interference in the closing stages, which cost him first place. He was justifiably promoted a place, and, having raced only three times, he is a Coolmore improver who has both speed and stamina. DRUMROLL previously finished just behind his stablemate, the G1 Irish 2000 Guineas hero PADDINGTON at the Listed Curragh Telarch Stakes over the 1,600m.
It won’t be easy for him, though, with strong opposition, including Godolphin’s BOLD ACT, who is a four-time winner from 1400m to 1600m. True, BOLD ACT flopped in the Listed Feilden Stakes over 1,800m at Newmarket in April, but he was promptly gelded and produced a career-best when running BERTINELLI to a neck at Newbury over 2,000m last month.
EXOPLANET finished another neck behind BOLD ACT, and he was unlucky. Drawn wide, EXOPLANET was launching a menacing looking challenge when he jumped a piece of litter at the 400m mark and briefly lost focus. EXOPLANET can get his revenge on BOLD ACT here.
Strictly on form, TORITO has a bit to find with DRUMROLL. However, he is superbly bred, being a KINGMAN half-brother to G1 winner JOURNEY, and I doubt if we have seen the best of him yet. He struggled on soft ground early on, but looked far more effective in drier conditions when winning a handicap under the talented Benoit de la Sayette at Epsom over 2,015m.
CAERNARFON belied massive odds when finishing in the frame in both the G1 1000 Guineas and the G1 Oaks. Though no match for superstars MAWJ and TAHIYRA in the 1000 Guineas over 1,600m at Newmarket, CAERNARFON stayed on well enough to earn a shot at the G1 Oaks over 2,405m at Epsom. She ran a great race too, going as well as SOUL SISTER at the top of the hill before being outstayed up the hill. This 1,993m might be CAERNARFON’s ideal trip but she’ll find things tougher against the colts.
SELECTIONS: 2. DRUMROLL, 10. EXOPLANET, 14. TORITO, 3. BOLD ACT & 16. CAERNARFON
S1-7 Buckingham Palace Stakes
A tricky 1,400m handicap to round things off on day three of Royal Ascot.
Ryan Moore has been booked to ride BIGGLES and that looks a tip in itself. The 6YO gelding has enjoyed a very consistent career so far – running 14 times and finishing in the places on 11 occasions. He was last seen finishing a good second in the ultra-competitive Victoria Cup over the same course and distance where he clearly bumped into a very well-handicapped horse REBEL TERRITORY. Ralph Beckett’s charge can run off the same mark here and he looks a leading contender.
CROUPIER isn’t the most consistent, but when he’s on form he’s a decent handicapper, which was shown when he won a York handicap over 1,575m last time. He steps back down in trip which doesn’t look the most obvious move, but he won over 1,400m a couple of years ago and still deserves plenty of respect.
MONTASSIB was well-fancied for this race last year and didn’t run too badly to finish fifth, beaten one and a half lengths. He has been consistent since and got back on the winning trail last time at Newmarket over 1,400m. He has a career high mark to defy, but has always been well-regarded.
Trainer George Boughey won this race in 2022 with INVER PARK and he saddles BARADAR this time around. He only beat one horse home in this contest last year when trained by J P Murtagh, but has been much better since moving to the Boughey yard and beat BIGGLES at Doncaster over 1,400m on his first start for his new stable last November. Don’t forget this was a horse who was quietly fancied for the G1 Vertem Futurity Trophy Stakes over 1,600m as a 2YO, so don’t be surprised to see him run well.
In the same ownership, keep an eye on GREAT MAX at a likely big price. He hasn’t been victorious since a debut win at Newbury over 1,300m, but he has been running over trips much further than this which don’t seem to have suited. GREAT MAX was third in the Listed Chesham Stakes over 1,400m at Royal Ascot in 2021, and he’s worth a second look back down to this trip.
SELECTIONS: 14. BIGGLES, 15. CROUPIER, 19. BARADAR, 6. MONTASSIB & 22. GREAT MAX
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