 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Commonwealth Cup Day (S2) (Bill Esdaile)
S2-1 Albany Stakes
A big field of fired up fillies will kick off day four at Royal Ascot in the G3 Albany Stakes over 1,200m.
Last year’s winning combination of Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore look to strike again with MATRIKA. She dwelt at the start on her racecourse debut at the Curragh over 1,200m last month but showed plenty of class to power through the field and win comfortably in the end. By NO NAY NEVER and a granddaughter of HIGH CHAPARRAL, she’s bred to be the part and is in the right hands.
NAVASSA ISLAND, a half-sister to G1 1,200m Cheveley Park Stakes winner LEZOO, had a less straightforward start to live on the track. She had her fair share of traffic problems in a 1,200m G3 at Naas, but showed a brilliant turn of foot to finally get out of trouble and was only beaten a neck at the line. That performance flagged her up as a certain winner in maiden company next time out, but connections have taken the bold decision to come straight to this G3 at Royal Ascot, and it could pay off if she gets a smoother run.
CARLA’S WAY has to be respected after her clear-cut success over 1,301m at Doncaster on her first career start. Despite being very keen and pulling hard in the early stages of the race, she showed no signs of stopping in the final 200 metres and ran through the line well. She should have learnt a lot from that debut and is a definite player granted the expected race-to-race progression.
Similar comments apply to SOPRANO, who although lit up in the early stages of her racecourse debut over 1,000m at Newmarket, showed a good attitude to win decisively. Stepping up to 1,200m holds no fears on breeding, but she will have to settle better if she’s to be as effective over the extra distance.
Not to be missed off the shortlist is JABAARA, who caught the eye on her racecourse introduction at Newmarket in a contest that has produced a winner and runner-up of the last three Albany Stakes. She had plenty of ground to make up when stuck in the middle of a well-grouped 10-runner field but showed a brilliant turn of foot to do just that. Trainer Roger Varian won the same Newmarket contest with DAAHYEH in 2019 before she won the Albany on her next start.
SELECTIONS: 10. NAVASSA ISLAND, 1. CARLA’S WAY, 18. SOPRANO, 9. MATRIKA & 6. JABAARA
S2-2 Commonwealth Cup
The G1 Commonwealth Cup over 1,200m looks a very competitive heat with numbers of 3YO sprinters will line up. Aidan O’Brien won in 2017 with CARAVAGGIO. He could become the first dual winner of the race with LITTLE BIG BEAR, his big hope of the day. Having won at Royal Ascot last year in the Listed Windsor Castle Stakes over 1,000m, the son of NO NAY NEVER has won five of his seven career starts, most recently in the G2 Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock over 1,200m.
With five career victories to his name, Julie Camacho’s SHAQUILLE has been thoroughly impressive since his win at Newmarket in a 1200m handicap in early May. Following a decisive success at Newbury in the Listed Carnarvon Stakes over 1,200m last time out, the 3YO by CHARM SPIRIT is one of the most progressive horses in the field and could take another step forward on his first start in G1 company.
Both LITTLE BIG BEAR and SAKHEER ran in the G1 2000 Guineas over 1,600m at Newmarket in May, with the latter crossing the winning post nearly 16 lengths ahead of the former. Trainer Roger Varian believes his colt by ZOFFANY didn’t stay the distance on his first attempt at 1,600m and this return to 1,200m should see him back to his best.
Another horse who also competed in the G1 2000 Guineas was NOBLE STYLE, who is one of two runners for Godolphin and Charlie Appleby. Interestingly, stable jockey William Buick has chosen MISCHIEF MAGIC and James Doyle is the rider who will partner with this son of KINGMAN. That shouldn’t be a worry as based on his 2YO season last year, he had the beating of MILL STREAM, MARSHMAN, GALERON, ROYAL SCOTSMAN, and COLD CASE, all horses who have performed in the top races. If he can put his disappointing third in the Listed Carnarvon Stakes over 1,200m behind him, he will have a fair chance of winning.
One of the few fillies in the contest is LEZOO who will be ridden by Frankie Dettori, the only jockey to have won this race twice. She is already a winner at the highest level having landed the G1 Cheveley Park Stakes over 1,200m at Newmarket on her final start last season. That race received a big form boost when the third, MAWJ, went on to win the G1 1000 Guineas over 1,600m less than eight months later.
SELECTIONS: 2. LITTLE BIG BEAR, 8. SHAQUILLE, 7. SAKHEER, 5. NOBLE STYLE & 11. LEZOO
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-2:
Banker – 2. LITTLE BIG BEAR
Selections – 8. SHAQUILLE, 7. SAKHEER, 5. NOBLE STYLE & 11. LEZOO
S2-3:
Banker – 3. TEUMESSIAS FOX
Selections – 5. LIVE YOUR DREAM, 11. AL NAFIR, 6. OKITA SOUSHI & 9. NAGANO
S2-3 Duke of Edinburgh Stakes
You would expect in a 19-runner handicap on Ascot’s round course, like in the 2,392m Duke of Edinburgh Stakes, that a low draw would be an advantage. However, the last 10 winners all came from a double-figure gate, with the last two leaving from 18 and 19. It is maybe down to the speed the lower drawn horses have to go to hold their position, but it makes for an interesting tactical race.
Godolphin are mob-handed in this with four runners and AL NAFIR, Charlie Appleby’s sole runner, looks likely to go off favourite. He won a valuable 2,400m handicap at Newmarket in October but hasn’t been seen since, so we’ll have to take his fitness on trust. He has what looks a decent draw in stall 10, though, so he can’t be ruled out under William Buick.
Saeed bin Suroor saddles three in his bid for a first Duke of Edinburgh and his best chance could be LIVE YOUR DREAM, the mount of Daniel Tudhope. He had some strong form over 2,800m in 2021 and was then off the track for more than 600 days before returning with a promising second in a handicap at Haydock over 2,359m earlier this month. He showed he retains his ability and if he can improve again, he shouldn’t be far away.
TEUMESSIAS FOX is a really interesting runner for Andrew Balding and Oisin Murphy. Following a gelding operation in October, he has won both starts over 2,400m this year and was particularly impressive last time in a handicap on 2000 Guineas Day at Newmarket. He has understandably risen in the weights, but he could end up being better than a handicapper and as long as stall six isn’t a disadvantage, he can go very close.
OKITA SOUSHI ran a fine race to be third in the Copper Horse Stakes over 2,800m at this meeting 12 months ago for Joseph O’Brien. Connections have played around with his trip since then and he managed to win twice on the all-weather at Dundalk in February, firstly over 3,200m and then over 2,136m. He is versatile and with Ryan Moore booked for the ride, he is another with a chance.
Roger Varian’s NAGANO has been off the track since August 2021, but he had strong form that summer and could sneak into the places if fit and ready to go.
SELECTIONS: 3. TEUMESSIAS FOX, 5. LIVE YOUR DREAM, 11. AL NAFIR, 6. OKITA SOUSHI & 9. NAGANO
S2-4 Coronation Stakes
A select field lines up for the Coronation Stakes 1,594m, a G1 for 3YO fillies, where Dermot Weld’s TAHIYRA is easily the most likely winner. A half-sister to brilliant G1 Breeders’ Cup Turf winner TARNAWA, she was only just touched off by MAWJ in the G1 1000 Guineas over 1,600m at Newmarket last month. After that she landed the G1 Irish 1000 Guineas over 1,600m at the Curragh on her next start, finishing a length and a half ahead of MEDITATE. Now with three wins from four starts on a variety of ground, TAHIYRA should be able to collect a fourth success, particularly with her old rival MAWJ not being declared.
Aidan O’Brien, a three-time winner of this race, relies on MEDITATE in this. This daughter of NO NAY NEVER improved from sixth place in the G1 1000 Guineas Stakes to second place in the G1 Irish 1000 Guineas, so if improving again, she will give the favourite something to think about. Her win in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies’ Turf over 1,600m at Keeneland last November by two and a half lengths must not be forgotten, and we’ve already seen how much the Ballydoyle horses can improve.
John and Thady Gosden’s runner, QUEEN FOR YOU, is interesting having won over course and distance on debut in early May. Now with more racecourse experience, having finished a close second last time out in a Listed race at York over 1,575m, she could be set for a career best. Conditions should be to her liking and she is well proven at the distance. Her dam, FALLEN FOR YOU, won this race in 2012, and her sire, KINGMAN, won the G1 St James’s Palace Stakes over 1,600m in 2014, so QUEEN FOR YOU is bred for this.
Another Irish runner, Mrs John Harrington’s SOUNDS OF HEAVEN beat QUEEN FOR YOU by a short-head last time out over 1,575m at York, which was her first run of the season. As with QUEEN FOR YOU, SOUNDS OF HEAVEN is a daughter of KINGMAN and if she is to come on for that, she may be able to uphold the form. But TAHIYRA looks the one to beat here.
SELECTIONS: 7. TAHIYRA, 3. MEDITATE, 4. QUEEN FOR YOU & 6. SOUNDS OF HEAVEN
S2-5 Sandringham Stakes
The Sandringham Stakes over 1,600m, a handicap for 3YO fillies, is never the easiest puzzle to solve and has seen plenty of big priced winners in recent years. However, most of those towards the head of this year’s market already have Group race experience, and they may prove the ones to focus on.
Aidan O’Brien’s JACKIE OH beat RED RIDING HOOD on debut at Naas over 1,600m in March, before just being touched off in Listed company at Navan over 2,000m on her second start. To run such a big race to finish fifth in the G1 Irish 1000 Guineas over 1600m last time marked her down as a filly of serious potential and one that is clearly better than a handicapper. She should have a strong chance off what looks a very workable opening handicap mark.
COPPICE has been sent off favourite for all three of her starts to date, so is clearly a well-regarded filly. She came up short in the G3 Nell Gwyn Stakes over 1,400m at Newmarket on her reappearance this season, but made amends with an easy win in a novice on the tapeta at Newcastle over 1,605m. That form clearly needs improving on and while this well-bred daughter of KINGMAN should have potential from her mark, she may find something too strong.
GIRL RACER finished ahead of COPPICE when the two met at Newmarket in April, and then William Haggas’ runner wasn’t disgraced in a strong novice at Haydock over 1,393m when last seen. Luck wasn’t on her side there as she stumbled leaving the stalls and was on the backfoot early on, but she stayed on well enough at the finish to suggest this step up in trip should suit her. She runs off a slightly lower handicap mark than COPPICE, so looks well worth keeping an eye on.
The Joseph O’Brien-trained MA BELLE ARTISTE proved that she was a tough filly when getting up on the line to win on her seasonal return at Killarney over 1,600m. Entering the final 400m there she looked set to finish third at best, but she stayed on gamely all the way to the line. That experience of having to battle will stand her in good stead in this competitive handicap and, once again, she should finish off her race to good effect.
BRIDESTONES completes the selections, as a filly that has been running in much stronger races than this but gets in here off a low weight on her first handicap start.
SELECTIONS: 2. JACKIE OH, 10. GIRL RACER, 9. COPPICE, 15. MA BELLE ARTISTE & 13. BRIDESTONES
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (18 unit bets):
S2-5:
Banker – 2. JACKIE OH
Selections – 10. GIRL RACER, 9. COPPICE, 15. MA BELLE ARTISTE & 13. BRIDESTONES
S2-6:
Banker – 5. KING OF STEEL
Selections – 4. CONTINUOUS, 2. ARREST & 3. ARTISTIC STAR
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-5: Multiple – 2. JACKIE OH, 10. GIRL RACER & 9. COPPICE
S2-6: Multiple – 5. KING OF STEEL, 4. CONTINUOUS & 2. ARREST
S2-7: Multiple – 28. CONQUISTADOR, 24. HARRY BROWN & 27. TAWALLA
S2-6 King Edward VII Stakes
This 3YO G2 runs over 2,392m and has recently been a good race for favourite backers, with three of the last four market leaders winning.
A word of caution, however. Epsom Derby runner-up KING OF STEEL will be all the rage after his brave effort against Auguste Rodin, there appeared no fluke in that run and KING OF STEEL, who had been off the track since last October, is also now dropping down a grade. Trainer Roger Varian says the colt, who belied his huge odds by seizing first run on the chasing pack at the 400m pole, has come out of that silver medal run better than he could ever have imagined.
If KING OF STEEL reproduces that form he’ll win, whereas ARREST, who started favourite in the Derby, ran no race whatsoever and trailed in only tenth, beaten 12.5 lengths. ARREST had previously won the G3 Chester Vase Stakes over 2,457m, albeit beating a sub-standard field. He hated the track at Epsom, being all over the place on the undulations, but he also found the fast ground against him, so any more rain would be a bonus.
Aidan O’Brien’s CONTINUOUS won both his starts at two, including a G3 over 1,600m in the mud in France. However, he is equally effective on faster ground and lost nothing in defeat when third in the G2 Dante Stakes over 2,051m at York, being beaten by two fitter horses. Disappointingly, CONTINUOUS has since faded tamely up the straight in the G1 Prix du Jockey Club over 2,100m at Chantilly, but that is the only blip on his record so far and can be forgiven.
ARTISTIC STAR was staying on strongly at the end in the G1 Derby Stakes, finishing seventh after losing his place coming down the hill. Trainer Ralph Beckett feared Epsom might come too soon after ARTISTIC STAR’s second win at Sandown over 1,990m just 18 days earlier. However, at least it showed that stamina is not a problem, and this more conventional track was always going to bring out the best in him.
SELECTIONS: 5. KING OF STEEL, 4. CONTINUOUS, 2. ARREST & 3. ARTISTIC STAR
S2-7 Palace of Holyroodhouse Stakes
CONQUISTADOR appears to have been saved for the 1,000m Palace of Holyrood House Stakes after twice winning on the all-weather. He beat RADIO GOO GOO over 1,019m at Wolverhampton in December before returning from a three-month break to nail KERDOS right on the line over 1,201m at Lingfield. The form of both those races has worked out really well and he may well have improved again since his last run in March.
HARRY BROWN twice won 1,201m handicaps on Lingfield’s all-weather track early in the year. He got a bump in the closing stages when third behind FERROUS over 1,000m at Goodwood last month. That was his first run for four months, so it should help put the edge on him for this race. David Simcock’s runner is incredibly consistent. He’s yet to finish out of the first three in ten career races and he’s won three of them. It’s hard to see how he won’t go close.
TAWALLA made a winning handicap debut when successful over 1,200m on Kempton’s polytrack track last week. He showed plenty of speed to get across from a wide draw to make the running and he was never headed despite facing strong challenges down the straight. The return to 1,000m could suit him.
KERDOS was only caught right on the line by CONQUISTADOR over 1,201m on the all-weather at Lingfield’s in March when attempting to stretch his unbeaten record to three. It wasn’t a surprise to see him weaken in the closing stages over 1,200m at Newmarket in April as he pulled way too hard in the early stages. He bounced back to form when third from a poor draw over 1,014m at Chester last month, and this big field handicap on Ascot’s straight course should suit him much better.
RADIO GOO GOO finished runner-up behind CONQUISTADOR in an all-weather novice contest over 1,019m at Wolverhampton last December. Since then she’s won five times to underline the strength of the form. Last week’s narrow victory at York over 1,200m was her fourth consecutive victory since switching back to the turf. She’s definitely got the speed to cope with the return to 1,000m.
SELECTIONS: 28. CONQUISTADOR, 24. HARRY BROWN, 27. TAWALLA, 8. KERDOS & 12. RADIO GOO GOO
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