 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes Day (S1) (Bill Esdaile)
S1-1 Chesham Stakes
Aidan O’Brien has won this 1,400m Listed race for 2YOs four times in the last seven years and he holds a strong hand again this time. His stable jockey Ryan Moore rides well-bred PEARLS AND RUBIES, who won on her debut at Navan. Her debut victory came despite starting slowly over 1,000m twoweeks ago. The way she picked up in the closing stages to lead on the line suggests she is going to be even better over this longer 1,400m distance. The runner-up, I AM INVICTUS, had previously finished third behind G2 Coventry Stakes winner RIVER TIBER, so the form looks good.
LA GUARIDA stepped up on her debut third over 1,200m at Newmarket when an impressive winner of a 1,200m fillies’ maiden at Goodwood. The form could not have worked out much better with the next three horses home all winning their next start. Her pedigree suggests she is going to love the step up to 1,400m for the first time and Richard Hannon’s runner could easily develop into a top-class filly.
QUATRE BRAS was only beaten half a length when third behind LIGHTNING LEO in a 1,403m novice contest at Yarmouth. He finished his race really strongly and it’s not hard to imagine he will have improved past the winner with that run behind him. The stiffer track will also be in his favour.
O’Brien also runs CONTENT as well as PEARLS AND RUBIES. She finished nicely when third behind another stablemate, BUTTONS, on her debut over 1,425m at Leopardstown two weeks ago. Her jockey did not put her under maximum pressure in the closing stages but she still came home strongly to be beaten just less than 0.5 lengths. There’s every chance she will have taken a big step forward for that debut run and she certainly has the pedigree for the job. She is by super stallion GALILEO and her mother, MECCA’S ANGEL, won the G1 Nunthorpe Stakes over 1,000m in 2016.
NEMONTE, trained by O’Brien’s eldest son Joseph, could be a threat to his father’s domination. She picked up well from the rear to land a big-field maiden over 1,200m at the Curragh last month. The step up to 1,400m should suit her well.
SELECTIONS: 16. PEARLS AND RUBIES, 13. LA GUARIDA, 8. QUATRE BRAS, 12. CONTENT & 15. NEMONTE
S1-2 Jersey Stakes
COVEY is the obvious place to start in the G3 1,400m Jersey Stakes. There was a possibility of him lining up in Thursday’s 1,600m Britannia Stakes, but connections clearly felt they’d rather take their chance in Group company than carry a big weight in one of the week’s most fiercely competitive handicaps. The son of FRANKEL has shown enough speed to win over 1,400m and 1,413m, as well as finishing second on debut over 1,413m. He’s maturing with every run and looks a very talented individual.
ENFJAAR, an impressive winner by six lengths over 1,600m on his sole start this season, will be high up on most lists. The start to his 3YO campaign couldn’t have been much more impressive, while he was a winner of a very strong 1,400m maiden on his only start at two. Having not put a foot wrong and with plenty of scope for improvement, the son of LOPE DE VEGA rates highly.
OLIVIA MARALDA will get her optimum conditions and has outside claims. She ran out of petrol over 1,600m on soft ground in the G1 1000 Guineas, but a quicker surface and the step back to 1,400m look sure to suit. She ran out a decisive winner over 1,403m at Epsom on her latest start, and the form has been franked with the sixth-placed horse winning since.
With COVEY strongly fancied to go close here, it’s also worth keeping an eye on ZOOLOGY. The son of ZOUSTAR inflicted COVEY’s only defeat to date in a 1,413m contest at Southwell. COVEY was quite awkward and green that day, and while that was his racecourse debut and he’s come a long way since, ZOOLOGY still deserves some credit.
He followed up that Southwell success with fourth in the G3 Greenham Stakes over 1,400m at Newbury on soft ground, and while he’ll need to run better than that to go close here, a return to a sounder surface could see him bounce back.
Though more exposed and having to give weight away, THE ANTARCTIC is a solid contender. He’s G1-placed, a two-time G3 winner over 1200m and 1,186m and will be dangerous if improving for the step up in trip. Being a full-brother to high-class 1,000m horse BATTAASH, his pedigree doesn’t suggest that this extra distance will suit, but it’s hard to question master Irish trainer, Aidan O’Brien.
SELECTIONS: 5. COVEY, 7. ENFJAAR, 15. OLIVIA MARALDA, 14. ZOOLOGY & 2. THE ANTARCTIC
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 5. COVEY
Selections – 7. ENFJAAR, 15. OLIVIA MARALDA, 14. ZOOLOGY & 2. THE ANTARCTIC
S1-3:
Banker – 2. ARTORIUS
Selections – 14. HIGHFIELD PRINCESS, 13. WELLINGTON, 15. SACRED & 10. ROHAAN
S1-3 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes
The G1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes over 1,200m is the feature race on the final day of Royal Ascot and this year sees high-class sprinters from the United Kingdom, Ireland, Australia, USA, and Hong Kong meet on the biggest stage.
With the Australian-trained runners still searching for a maiden victory at this year’s Royal meeting, ARTORIUS is their big hope for Anthony & Sam Freeman. He was a good third in last year’s contest and connections believe he is a better horse now.
As is the case with the G1 Royal Ascot sprints, horses can run in Tuesday’s G1 King’s Stand Stakes over 1,000m and then turn up in this contest as well, something that John Quinn’s HIGHFIELD PRINCESS will attempt. The three-time G1 winner ran a very good race earlier in the week when slightly inconvenienced by the winner, BRADSELL, and returning to a distance she was successful at in the G2 Duke of York Clipper Stakes over 1,200m in May 2022 could play to her strengths.
Having his first start away from Sha Tin, WELLINGTON is the big overseas runner who has won four G1 contests, most recently the G1 LONGINES Hong Kong Sprint over 1,200m in December. This time, WELLINGTON will be ridden by Ryan Moore, a jockey who has already won on him before, so there is a familiar and successful partnership between horse and rider.
Moore rode SACRED last time but Tom Marquand now gets on board for his boss, William Haggas. Like HIGHFIELD PRINCESS, she receives 3lbs from the colts and geldings for being a mare and is yet to be victorious in a G1 event so far. However, if she can build on her decisive win in the G3 Chartwell Fillies’ Stakes over 1,401m last month, she could be a threat to the top of the betting market.
ROHAAN, trained by David Evans, has won the last two editions of the Wokingham Stakes over 1,200m and generally loves it at Ascot. The 5YO colt by MAYSON has won four times at Ascot and finished fourth in the G1 British Champions Sprint Stakes in October over the same course and distance, so he should run well under Adam Kirby.
SELECTIONS: 2. ARTORIUS, 14. HIGHFIELD PRINCESS, 13. WELLINGTON, 15. SACRED & 10. ROHAAN
S1-4 Hardwicke Stakes
The G2 Hardwicke Stakes over 2,392m could be anyone’s race, with a mixture of talented older horses up against younger progressive ones.
FREE WIND, trained by John & Thady Gosden, has won six of her eight career starts, and started the season well when winning the G2 Middleton Fillies’ Stakes at York over 2,051m last month. That form has been upgraded this week when runner-up ROGUE MILLENNIUM won the G2 Duke of Cambridge Stakes over 1,600m on Wednesday. Having won over this distance previously on similar going, FREE WIND has a strong chance.
HUKUM is a course and distance winner, having won the G3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes over 2,392m, and he comes from Owen Burrows’ yard that does well at Royal Ascot. He won his first race this year, the G3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes over 1,990m, which is a too short distance for him, so the step back up to 2,392m will definitely suit. He also managed to claim the G1 Coronation Cup over 2,405m at Epsom last year, so we know the quality he has.
DEAUVILLE LEGEND makes his seasonal debut, but the SEA THE STARS gelding goes well fresh, having won his first race last year over 2,000m at Windsor. His course form is good too, with a close second in the King George V Stakes over 2,400m at this course 12 months ago.
The winner of the 2021 G1 Coronation Cup over 2,405m, PYLEDRIVER is a very interesting contender. Runner-up in the 2021 LONGINES Hong Kong Vase over 2,400m, his last outing was a win in last year’s G1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes over 2,392m over same course and distance. He suffered an injury that day, which has kept him off the track until now, but he has gone well fresh in the past.
Aidan O’Brien’s CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD will have to improve to beat the others, but he did land the G2 King Edward VII Stakes over 2,392m last year. He should get his preferred going and he didn’t run badly when third in the G3 Ormonde Stakes over 2,676m at Chester last month, but this trip will suit better.
SELECTIONS: 8. FREE WIND, 5. HUKUM, 3. DEAUVILLE LEGEND, 6. PYLEDRIVER & 2. CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-4:
Banker – 8. FREE WIND
Selections – 5. HUKUM, 3. DEAUVILLE LEGEND, 6. PYLEDRIVER & 2. CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD
S1-5:
Banker – 8. ORAZIO
Selections – 2. KING’S LYNN, 14. SAINT LAWRENCE, 18. KHANJAR & 21. PROBE
S1-5 Wokingham Stakes
The Wokingham Stakes over 1,200m is another fiercely competitive big-field Royal Ascot handicap on the straight course.
ORAZIO is a horse that comes here on a high after landing two handicaps already this season from as many starts. Both those wins at Newmarket over 1,200m and here at Ascot over 1,200m came in softer conditions than he will encounter on Saturday, but he won on good ground in 2021, so there’s hope he will handle the faster conditions. After only six career starts there is sure to be more to come from this son of CARAVAGGIO, and he makes plenty of appeal with William Buick again in the saddle.
This race is run over the same distance as the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes over 1,200m earlier in the day, a contest that KING’S LYNN finished down the field in last year. A regular at this meeting, in 2021 he finished a close third in this contest, and lines up here off a not dissimilar mark with excellent claimer Harry Davies removing weight from the saddle. The Royal runner is a Group horse at his best, as he showed when winning the G2 Temple Stakes over 1,000m at Haydock last season. He is likely to improve on his close second in handicap company at Chester over 1,014m when last seen, so he can’t be left out of calculations.
SAINT LAWRENCE ran a mighty race to finish sixth in last year’s G1 King’s Stand over 1,000m at this meeting, actually finishing a position ahead of KING’S LYNN. He’s finished a close second off a slightly lower mark at Newbury over 1,400m in 2021, so he looks feasibly treated here. It’s worth forgiving his last run at Newmarket over 1,200m last month, and he’s due to make his first start here for trainer Archie Watson, who does particularly well with sprinters at Ascot.
First-time cheekpieces are given a go on KHANJAR and that might just eke out a bit more improvement from William Haggas’ runner. He’s only marginally higher than his last winning mark, ran well enough last time and has a decent high draw in stall 24.
PROBE is an interesting horse that still looks to be improving and would be higher up this list if it wasn’t for the worry about quick ground conditions not being ideal. He was impressive when winning on good-to-soft ground at Newmarket 1,200m last month, but found quicker ground against him at Epsom over 1,203m last time and similar conditions might just stop him winning.
SELECTIONS: 8. ORAZIO, 2. KING’S LYNN, 14. SAINT LAWRENCE, 18. KHANJAR & 21. PROBE
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 8. ORAZIO, 2. KING’S LYNN & 14. SAINT LAWRENCE
S1-6: Multiple – 6. CANUTE, 13. KNOCKBREX & 15. LION OF WAR
S1-7: Multiple – 3. DAWN RISING, 1. STRATUM & 7. RUN FOR OSCAR
S1-6 Golden Gates Stakes
This 1,993m handicap is for 3YOs who just fall short of the top of the tree. However, with Aidan O’Brien, Charlie Appleby, plus Charlie Johnston and the Gosdens being responsible for the major players, it is a case of assessing which colt might be better than his official mark.
Coolmore’s CANUTE is the most experienced, but twice found traffic problems in his early races which cost him dear. Eventually, CANUTE did break his maiden in a competitive handicap at Navan over 2,000m, and now that he has got his head in front he could pay to follow. He never looked like being beaten that day, hitting the line strongly, and down in weights, he could well win again.
The Johnstons are always to be feared in these handicaps at the big meetings, and KNOCKBREX did nothing wrong when chasing home GREGORY at Haydock over 2,327m. That form received a massive boost when the winner followed up in the G2 Queen’s Vase at Ascot on Wednesday. KNOCKBREX has since run creditably when fourth at York over 2,371m, where his wide draw meant he had to do plenty of early running to get to the front. Indeed, had he not run about a bit in the final 200m, KNOCKBREX would have held on for second place behind CHESSPIECE, who enhanced the form himself in the Vase, finishing third.
The Johnston team also run LION OF WAR, who won’t mind this drying ground as both his turf wins have been on a fast surface. The most recent was at Musselburgh three weeks ago, when he recovered from a tardy start and had to steer a wide path to go on to win.
OBELIX showed promise on the grass in his first two runs over 1,400m and 1,403m, and then made it third time lucky on tapeta at Newcastle. The Gosdens had him gelded after he flopped at Newcastle on his seasonal debut, and he is bred to improve over this longer distance.
SELECTIONS: 6. CANUTE, 13. KNOCKBREX, 15. LION OF WAR & 5. OBELIX
S1-7 Queen Alexandra Stakes
Royal Ascot 2023 comes to a close with the longest race of the meeting, the Queen Alexandra Stakes over 4,330m.
It’s a race that has been won for the last two years by the Willie Mullins-trained STRATUM, who now goes for the hat-trick. Last season he came into this after finishing last in the Listed Orby Stakes over 2,400m at the Curragh but left that form well behind when seeing the trip out best to win. This time around, he lines up here after a similarly uninspiring prep run, when finishing eighth of nine in the G3 Saval Beg Stakes at Leopardstown over 2,800m, but over this more suitable trip he can be expected to improve significantly once again and he will be a real threat.
STRATUM is now 10YO, though, and he may just be vulnerable to a younger improving type in the form of DAWN RISING. Joseph O’Brien’s 6YO warmed up for this in the same Leopardstown race and ran a much better trial to finish ahead of STRATUM in third. This son of GALILEO had some strong form on the Flat when trained by Aidan O’Brien, including when finishing second in the G3 Bahrain Trophy Stakes over 2,600m at Newmarket in 2020. Since then he has been mainly campaigned over hurdles, winning a G3 at Navan over 4,000m last November and then placing in a G1 at Naas over 3,993m. Those efforts show he should have no problem staying this trip and he won’t be far away.
Another horse that has form both on the Flat and over jumps is RUN FOR OSCAR. His most notable success on the level came when winning the Cesarewitch over 3,600m at Newmarket last season, which he did in comfortable style by 3.3 lengths. Connections have opted to run him in this conditions race rather than a handicap earlier in the meeting and on ratings he should hold every chance.
TYPEWRITER represents the Andrew Balding yard that have won this race twice in the last 10 years. He caught the eye staying on strongly to finish fourth over 2,771m in the G3 Bronte Cup Fillies' Stakes at York last time. He’s worth a go at this extreme trip and we might not have seen the best of him yet.
FALCON EIGHT has largely been out of form since finishing fourth in this race last year. The likely quick ground conditions will suit Dermot Weld’s runner and if he can bounce back to form, he could once again be involved.
SELECTIONS: 3. DAWN RISING, 1. STRATUM, 7. RUN FOR OSCAR, 10. TYPEWRITER & 5. FALCON EIGHT
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