Tim Carroll 's Bio

Tim started off as a jockey in Australia before pursuing a media career. He is a highly experienced and respected racing presenter who has been based in England since 2005. Tim has travelled the world covering many of the major meetings, including Royal Ascot, The Epsom Derby, The International meeting from Sha Tin, The Dubai World Cup, The Everest, The Saudi Cup and The Breeders. He is currently a presenter for Sky Sports Racing, specialising in both the local and international scene. Tim is a regular contributor to the At The Races Website where his twice weekly tipping column on Hong Kong racing has gathered a strong following.

Ascot Racecourse – Track Analysis (Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes Day)

Ascot is a large right-handed galloping triangular shaped track, just over 2800m in circumference, with a straight run of 500m on the round course. There is a straight 1600m course, which all races below 1600m are held. There are two start points for races run over 1600m, one on the round course and the other on the straight course.

The track was redeveloped in 2005 and the ground in the straight drains quicker than the rest of the course, meaning ground descriptions can vary. Being a large track with an uphill finish dragging almost the entire straight (including the length of the straight course), Ascot suits hold-up horses, and front-runners need to be ridden conservatively to ensure they save energy.

Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes Day, day 5 of the Royal Ascot meeting see’s seven turf races for coverage.

For the three races on round course, the 1993m Golden Gates Stakes, runners start in back straight and travel downhill for approximately 200m before levelling out at Swindley Bottom and turning into a straight that sees a steady rise to the home turn, then enter the 500m home straight and run uphill until the finish. Statistically speaking, barriers are of little consequence, but like most races on the round course, horses ridden with patience tend to do well.

For the 2392m G2 Hardwicke Stakes, it is similar to the 1993m. The only difference is that the runners start from the highest point of the course, which is on the top of the back straight for 2392m, then head downhill for nearly 400m to the Swindley Bottom.

For the 4330m Queen Alexandra Stakes, they start toward the top of the straight course and have a long uphill run before meeting the first turn. After passing the winning post they head downhill, turning right onto the far side straight, before heading onto Swindley bottom and turning onto another straight, that gently rises. Then enter the 500m home straight, and run uphill until the finish. Barriers are of no consequence, but it is a stamina testing contest and although those on the front will be afforded every opportunity in steadily run races, backmarkers are suited in races run at a true tempo as the uphill rise in the straight will take its toll on those ridden aggressively.

For those races on the straight course, the 1400m G3 Jersey Stakes and the Listed Chesham Stakes and, as well as the 1200m G1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes and Wokingham Stakes, in smaller fields they tend to come down the middle, but in larger fields they can split into two and even three groups. The straight draw results will vary for 1200m, but it is advisable to look for the speed angle, especially in larger fields, as the winner usually comes from where the pace is, and results are more pace-dependent than draw-dependent. With the straight course being uphill nearly all the way, the further they go the more it suits horses ridden patiently, and those ridden with restraint normally do well.

For the feature race, G1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes over 1200m, this particular race can be difficult to predict with five of the last ten running’s seeing the field split into two groups, whilst the other five running’s saw them come down the straight in one group. The average size field over the last ten years is 15, whilst the average winning barrier is 7.6, which does suggest horses can win from anywhere. Of the last ten winners, five have tracked the speed, three have been mid division or held up, and two have led.  Looking for the pace angle is always helpful, as if they go too quickly, the uphill drag will see those ridden with restraint come to the fore, but if they don’t go a decent pace, those on the front will continue to gallop up the hill.

Last year’s Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes was run on Good to Firm ground and saw a field of 24 go to post, with the Australian raider, HOME AFFAIRS, the favourite. They split into two groups with the majority of the field electing to go to the centre, whilst the others came to the near side. HOME AFFAIRS led the group on the near side, with NAVAL CROWN a couple of lengths in behind, whilst CAMPANELLE led the group down the centre, with a host of horses closely in behind, but both CREATIVE FORCE and ARTORIOUS, who was tardy out of the stalls, were held-up on the far side of the centre group. 350m out, it was clear that HOME AFFAIRS was struggling to run up the hill, with NAVAL CROWN now level, whilst CAMPANELLE and HIGHLAND PRINCESS led the centre but with plenty of rivals in close proximately. At the 200m mark any of ten runners where in with a chance, but it was NAVAL CROWN who pulled out enough on the near side, going on to win by a neck, from the stable companion, CREATIVE FORCE who flew late on the far side, and just behind those were the dead-heaters, CAMPANELLE and the luckless ARTORIOUS, who had to change course whilst running through the line with plenty of purpose from near last, in a time that was 0.13s faster than standard.

The weather forecast suggests there could be some rain about earlier in the week, and a small chance of showers the day prior and on the final day. If the forecast is correct, the going is likely to have Good in the description this year, although if more rain than forecast arrives, it could also have Soft in the description.

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