 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Irish Derby Day (S2) (Bill Esdaile)
S2-1 Railway Stakes
This looks a classy renewal of the G2 Railway Stakes over 1,200m with Royal Ascot form meeting some strong domestic Irish form.
BUCANERO FUERTE finished an excellent third in the G2 Coventry Stakes over 1,200m on the opening day of Royal Ascot, when going down by a length to perhaps the best of Aidan O’Brien’s 2YOs, RIVER TIBER. That’s an effort that can be upgraded slightly too, as there looked to be a stronger pace to chase on the far side of the track, while BUCANERO FUERTE raced in the nearside group and the race didn’t quite set up as well for him. Having won on soft ground on a maiden at the Curragh over 1,000m in March, Adrian Murray’s runner should appreciate a return to an easier surface than he encountered at Ascot last time, and if in the same form he should go close.
Aidan O’Brien’s UNQUESTIONABLE was impressive when making all to win a strong maiden at the Curragh over 1,200m in May. That was a significant improvement on his debut, and the form has been franked with the fifth placed horse coming out and winning since. While others in this line up have achieved more, further improvement from this son of WOOTTON BASSETT would make him a real player.
Despite still being a maiden after two starts, I AM INVICTUS has shown a high level of ability in both those runs. He ran into the Coventry Stakes winner on debut, before then just being run down in the final strides at Navan over 1,000m by the subsequent runner-up, PEARLS AND RUBIES, in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot. That form entitles him to plenty of respect and he’ll be right there if improving for this step up to 1,200m.
Another Aidan O’Brien runner, DEMOCRACY, comes here on a recovery mission after disappointing when finishing last in the G3 Marble Hill Stakes over 1,200m at the Curragh when last seen. He was pushed along at halfway in that contest and faded quickly, but judging by his debut win over 1,200m on heavy ground, he is much better than that effort. Rain and softer conditions may well work in his favour, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if he was to bounce back with a big run.
MYTHOLOGY completes the shortlist after finishing a good third on debut at this course over 1,200m in early June. He looked to run green when coming under pressure there, but stayed on all the way to the line and improvement is expected to bring him into this on only his second start.
SELECTIONS: 1. BUCANERO FUERTE, 9. UNQUESTIONABLE, 5. I AM INVICTUS, 2. DEMOCRACY & 7. MYTHOLOGY
S2-2 Belgrave Stakes
This is a race that favourites do well in, with four of the last five winners being sent off as the market leader.
You would imagine WODAO would be towards the top of the market here and Donnacha O’Brien’s charge looks a live contender. The son of SHOWCASING was highly tried as a 2YO having run eight times, including two victories. The majority of those runs came over 1,000m, but since a good third in the Listed Doncaster Stakes over 1,200m, he has been campaigned over further and has performed well. He ran good races behind TENEBRISM in the 1,200m Listed Cork Stakes at Cork and MARSHMAN in the 1,100m G3 Prix Sigy at Chantilly to start this season and, while he wasn’t so good last time back at Chantilly over 1,200m, this looks a weaker contest.
COMMANCHE FALLS is a very solid challenger. Michael Dods’ 6YO rarely runs a bad race and, if anything, seems to have improved this year having stepped up to Listed and Group company. He was a bit below par on his seasonal reappearance, the Listed Cammidge Trophy Stakes at Doncaster over 1,202m, but has gone really well the last three times, including a close third to AZURE BLUE in the G2 Duke of York Stakes over 1,200m last time. He was just behind HIGHFIELD PRINCESS that day, and that’s arguably the strongest form on offer here.
MOONEISTA should find this much easier than the G1 King’s Stand Stakes over 1,000m that she ran in last time. She finished down the field there, but prior to that she had some really solid form in the book, notably a good fourth to NATURE STRIP in the 2022 edition of the King’s Stand Stakes. The step up to 1,200m should hold no fears and she has run well at the track in the past too.
ANO SYRA also looks interesting. The 4YO has progressed through the ranks at a rate of knots, with her two-length second in the Listed Midsummer Sprint Stakes over 1,000m last time evidence of such. She was also a very good third to ART POWER in the G2 Greenlands Stakes over 1,200m the time before, and, with that form franked since, she could easily outrun the odds.
CASTLE STAR can complete the placings. He has struggled to repeat the form he showed as a 2YO, but he’s only run four times since he finished second in the G1 Middle Park Stakes over 1,200m. If he could return to that sort of form, he’d have a real chance.
SELECTIONS: 9. WODAO, 3. COMMANCHE FALLS, 8. MOONEISTA, 7. ANO SYRA & 2. CASTLE STAR
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-2:
Banker – 9. WODAO
Selections – 3. COMMANCHE FALLS, 8. MOONEISTA, 7. ANO SYRA & 2. CASTLE STAR
S2-3:
Banker – 1. BIG GOSSEY
Selections – 16. RUN RAN RUN, 15. SILMANIYA, 10. JON RIGGENS & 6. TAWAAZON
S2-3 Rockingham Handicap
BIG GOSSEY should put his strong course-and-distance record to good use in the Rockingham Handicap over 1,000m. He was only headed close to the line when runner-up behind smart sprinter ANO SYRA in this race 12 months ago, which was a particularly good effort as he didn’t have the best draw. He went on to win at the Curragh over 1,000m in August with a smooth performance after travelling strongly through the race. The way he performed to finish second behind top British sprinter ART POWER over 1,200m in a Curragh G2 on his most recent start in May suggests he is running into peak form.
RUN RAN RUN is an improving 3YO with an excellent attitude. He landed a Curragh maiden over 1,200m on heavy ground in April, but he coped well with the drop to 1,000m on a faster surface when successful at this track last month. This bigger field will test his relative inexperience, as this will be just his sixth race, but he clearly has the potential to keep on improving.
SILMANIYA was suited by the average pace when only seventh behind RUN RAN RUN over the same course and distance last month. That was also her first race of the year, so there’s every chance she will have improved for her return to action. She had finished placed in her first four starts as a 2YO last season before getting off the mark on her handicap debut over 1,000m at Navan in September. There’s plenty of class in her pedigree as her half-sister SONAIYLA won at G3 level and was third in the G1 Flying Five Stakes in 2020.
JON RIGGENS ran an excellent race when fourth over 1,200m at the Curragh last month considering he was forced to race away from the main action from a poor draw. He had previously beaten the winner of that race, TAWAAZON, when successful over 1,000m at Navan in May, storming through from the rear to get up on the line. Edward Lynam’s runner wouldn’t mind it if the ground turned softer, but he does handle quicker surfaces.
TAWAAZON might have gone too fast in front when disappointing over 1,000m at Navan last month. He would have to be considered on his previous Curragh win over 1,200m.
SELECTIONS: 1. BIG GOSSEY, 16. RUN RAN RUN, 15. SILMANIYA, 10. JON RIGGENS & 6. TAWAAZON
S2-4 Irish Derby
The line-up for the G1 Irish Derby over 2,400m, as is often the case, is similar to last month's Derby Stakes.
14-time winning trainer of this race, Aidan O’Brien’s AUGUSTE RODIN redeemed a poor performance in the G1 2000 Guineas over 1,600m by winning the Derby Stakes by half a length and is undoubtedly the most likely winner of the Irish equivalent. He has won races on both soft and firmer ground, so can handle whatever the weather brings, and showed that he is versatile in trip too when winning over 2,400m at the first time of asking last time out. He should prove very hard to beat.
SPREWELL was fourth to AUGUSTE RODIN in the 2,405m G1 Derby Stakes last month. Trainer Mrs John Harrington is yet to win this race, but is having a successful season and has trained over 100 winners at the Curragh. With this course being less undulating than Epsom, SPREWELL should find the Irish Derby easier. His last run was his first over this distance, and given he didn’t get the smoothest of passages, he can be expected to get a bit closer to AUGUSTE RODIN.
WHITE BIRCH finished in third place having started slowly at Epsom, just under one and three-quarters lengths ahead of SPREWELL and just over five lengths behind AUGUSTE RODIN. Like SPREWELL, he is likely better suited to a flatter track, but has a tendency to be slow away from the gates which isn’t doing him any favours. He has a good chance of hitting the places, but will need to break better to be competitive.
Lightly-raced UP AND UNDER comes to the Irish Derby without a win so far. His three career races have seen him place in each, most recently finishing second to SPREWELL in the G3 Derby Trial Stakes over 2,000m from a wide draw. With a field of nine here, the draw is less important and while he can be competitive, this is a huge step up in class. Trainer Joseph O’Brien won this race back in 2018 with LATROBE.
Untried over this distance but still worthy of consideration is his PROUD AND REGAL. By GALILEO, who won this race in 2001, and out of a G1 Falmouth Stakes over 1,600m winning mare SIMPLY PERFECT, he is bred to stay the distance. Disappointing last time out in the Irish 2000 Guineas at this course, however, over 1,600m, he will need to bounce back.
SELECTIONS: 2. AUGUSTE RODIN, 7. SPREWELL, 9. WHITE BIRCH, 8. UP AND UNDER & 5. PROUD AND REGAL
S2-5 Derby Festival Handicap
French import RAHMI can continue his rise through the ranks in the 1,600m Derby Festival Handicap. He won for Francis-Henri Graffard over 1,400m in France last September and looked rusty on his first run since joining John Murtagh when finishing in midfield behind DUNUM over 1,600m at Limerick. That form was turned around quite emphatically when RAHMI swooped late to beat DUNUM on faster ground over 1,600m at the Curragh last month. These big-field handicaps clearly suit him and he has plenty more improvement in him.
ARNIEMAC showed promise on his debut when fourth over 1,186m at Naas last season. He left John James Feane to join Joseph O’Brien before his return to action this term. The 1,145m distance again looked on the short side in finishing runner-up at Sligo and he predictably took a large step forward when upped to 1,628m at Killarney. He won that maiden in great style and the form looks solid, with the handicapper looking to have handed him a nice weight.
CORDOUAN was too fresh on his return to action in a six-runner Limerick handicap over 1,600m last month. He’s likely to be much better suited to this bigger field and his polytrack form at Dundalk last season makes him an interesting runner. This will be just his eighth run, so he is relatively unexposed for this 5YO gelding.
CURRENT OPTION was given an attacking ride when fifth behind RAHMI over this course and distance in May. That was a return to form for Adrian McGuiness’ 7YO gelding and he remains well handicapped on his best form. He doesn’t have to make the running. His most recent win, over 1,400m at the Galway Festival last July, came under a much more patient ride and he could easily get the perfect set up in this race.
FARNBOROUGH wasn’t ideally placed in the rear before staying on into sixth on his handicap debut over 1,400m at the Curragh in May. He had become a little frustrating having finished runner-up in three maidens over a variety of distances. Everything clicked into place over 1,600m at Limerick when he finally recorded his first victory in a maiden and there has to be a chance he will start to improve now he has got that first win on the board.
SELECTIONS: 5. RAHMI, 9. ARNIEMAC, 11. CORDOUAN, 4. CURRENT OPTION & 16. FARNBOROUGH
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S2-5:
Banker – 5. RAHMI
Selections – 9. ARNIEMAC, 11. CORDOUAN, 4. CURRENT OPTION & 16. FARNBOROUGH
S2-6:
Banker – 1. YERWANTHERE
Selections – 3. ADELAISE, 2. MAUIEWOWIE, 8. LAN CINNTE & 4. NO NIKI NO
S2-6 Summer Fillies Handicap
The Summer Fillies Handicap over 1,400m may principally concern two Joseph O’Brien-trained fillies that contested the Kensington Palace Fillies’ Handicap over 1,594m at Royal Ascot. Both YERWANTHERE and ADELAISE looked to be unlucky in that big field contest, as they were caught behind rivals from the turn into the home straight and only got clear racing room inside the final 200m. While ADELAISE finished off her race slightly better to beat her stablemate by half a length at the line, she looked to appreciate that 1,600m trip and it may be that the speedier YERWANTHERE is better suited to this drop back in trip to 1,400m. YERWANTHERE started as favourite for the Kensington Palace Fillies' Handicap and she also didn’t look to be given a hard time when here chance had gone, so granted more luck this time, she is taken to come out on top.
Ryan Moore has been booked to ride Ger Lyon’s MAUIEWOWIE, who was last seen finishing seventh in the G3 Lacken Stakes over 1,186m at Naas. That was her first attempt at the distance and she looked to see that out well enough, and this new trip should suit this daughter of NIGHT OF THUNDER. It’s also form that has worked out well, with one of the horses that finished in front of her there going on to win a G3 contest since.
LAN CINNTE has been consistent in two 1,600m maidens so far this season, finishing as runner-up in the first Naas, before running out a comfortable winner at Limerick last time. Judging by her previous form, this daughter of SAXON WARRIOR could be well-treated on handicap debut, but several of her rivals have achieved a bit more.
NO NIKI NO was a good winner of a handicap at Leopardstown over 1,800m last time out, when making all the running and staying on strongly all the way to the line. Dropping back to this trip, one she has won over before when trained in France, she is likely to be given an aggressive ride from the front and could prove tough to pass if in the same form as last time. Her last start was only her second one for trainer Eoghan O’Neill since her arrival from France and she still looks feasibly weighted despite a rise for her win last time.
SELECTIONS: 1. YERWANTHERE, 3. ADELAISE, 2. MAUIEWOWIE, 8. LAN CINNTE & 4. NO NIKI NO
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S2-6: Multiple – 1. YERWANTHERE, 3. ADELAISE & 2. MAUIEWOWIE
S2-7: Multiple – 12. TARAWA, 11. SALT LAKE CITY & 9. LORD MASSUSUS
S2-8: Multiple – 9. ZOFFMAN, 2. SAFECRACKER & 5. MAZE RUNNER
S2-7 Celebration Stakes
3YOs receive a generous weight allowance from their elders in this 1,600m Listed event, so the younger brigade might be calling the shots here.
Dermot Weld thinks the Aga Khan’s TARAWA will develop into a Group filly this season, so this well-bred 3YO ought to be a major player. TARAWA, who won her maiden over 1,400m on soft ground at Leopardstown last season, made a pleasing reappearance after over six month absence when finishing second to the fitter ZARINSK in a 1,600m G3 at Leopardstown in May. Indeed, TARAWA might well have won if she had started her run earlier. She was also doing her best work at the finish when subsequently a close fourth to her brilliant stablemate TAHIYRA in the 1,600m Irish 1000 Guineas at the Curragh. The winner has since franked the form when winning another G1 at Royal Ascot.
SALT LAKE CITY and LORD MASSUSUS are other 3YOs with solid claims.
Aidan O’Brien’s SALT LAKE CITY looked smart when winning his maiden at Navan over 1,600m in soft ground last October. He was then pitched in against the big boys in the 1,600m G1 Futurity Trophy Stakes at Doncaster, where his limitations were exposed. However, SALT LAKE CITY bounced back after a winter break in a Listed race at Leopardstown over 1,800m where he was unlucky to be beaten a neck as the winner got first run on him.
LORD MASSUSUS has made phenomenal improvement, winning four of his last five races between 1,186m and 1,600m. He was impressive at Naas over the shorter trip and then put a previous winner in his place at Gowran over 1,400m.
COSMIC VEGA clocked up a career-best performance to win in this grade at Naas over 1,400m in May. However, he also won over 1,600m at both Killarney and Naas last year and showed he has a touch of class when an excellent third in the 1,400m G3 Gladness Stakes over this course in April. Any more rain would suit COSMIC VEGA, who hit the line hard at Navan over 1,400m.
Joseph O’Brien’s DIDN’THAVEMUCHTODO could also be in the mix. She won twice over this 1,600m last season and caught the eye when an unlucky third in a Listed race over the same trip on her return at Navan.
SELECTIONS: 12. TARAWA, 11. SALT LAKE CITY, 9. LORD MASSUSUS, 1. COSMIC VEGA & 6. DIDN’THAVEMUCHTODO
S2-8 Ragusa Handicap
Irish Debry Day ends with the 2,400m Ragusa Handicap.
ZOFFMAN has been a very consistent runner for the Noel Meade stable over the last 12 months having only finished outside of the top two once in his last five runs. Because of those impressive runs, the 4YO son of ZOFFANY has risen in the weights, though that is deserved, and returning to a course he won a 2,000m maiden race at last season should see him run a good race.
Prominent owners Godolphin have very few horses left racing in Ireland, however, they are represented in this race with SAFECRACKER for John Murtagh. He has yet to win since his victory in August 2022, but he has still been steadily climbing in the weights due to some nice runs in defeat. If he can continue to progress from his close second in the 2,400m 4yo+ Handicap in June, he could have a part to play.
Although Ireland’s champion flat trainer is without a runner in the race, the champion Jumps trainer, Willie Mullins, has sent MAZE RUNNER to represent his yard. Having run over hurdles on his last start, he seems to relish big-field handicaps on the flat, as shown by his second to ECHOES IN RAIN in the 3,363m 4yo+ Handicap at Galway last July. The 8YO is racing for the first time since last December, something that should play to his advantage as he performs well when fresh.
With a distance of 2,400m, this race has attracted a few high-class hurdles to switch codes to the flat, most notably BRAZIL who won the 3,300m Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in March 2022. He won the 3,200m G3 Fishery Lane Hurdle in November 2022 and always shows good speed in his races across both codes, so this drop in distance could see him hit the frame in the famous green and gold silks of owner John P McManus.
Fellow hurdler MY MATE MOZZIE, who placed in the 3,200m G1 Royal Bond Novice Hurdle in November 2021, is a horse who has a bit more experience on the flat than the formerly mentioned BRAZIL. His trainer, Gavin Cromwell, has run him a few times on the flat without yet succeeding, however, his fourth-placed effort in last year’s 3yo+ Handicap over 2,564m at Leopardstown showed that he can win a big handicap when conditions fall into place.
SELECTIONS: 9. ZOFFMAN, 2. SAFECRACKER, 5. MAZE RUNNER, 15. BRAZIL & 6. MY MATE MOZZIE
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