Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Expert Column for Queen Elizabeth II Cup Day (S1) (Naohiro Goda)

 

S1-1     3yo and up 1 win
This is an allowance race for one time winning 3YO and upper over 1,800m at Kyoto outer turf course. Starting gate is set at far end of chute at entrance of backstretch and distance from starting gate to entrance of far turn is 900m, therefore “sustainable speed” is useful at this course.

 

My favourite is ALENTEJO, 3YO colt by FENOMENO, who won the G1 Tenno Sho Spring twice and had sustainable speed of the highest quality. His constitution was not very strong when he was a yearling and 2YO, and has been developing slowly. ALENTEJO won a maiden at Kyoto on 6th May, which was his fifth start. After having five months summer break, ALENTEJO returned at racecourse on 7th October, when he finished second in the allowance race for one time winners over the same course and distance as this race. His body weight has increased around 26lbs compared to the previous start and I understand he grew up physically. And I feel his mentality has improved as well and ALENTEJO should be able to graduate this class on Sunday.

 

My second choice is ALAIN VERITE, who finished third in the allowance race for one time winners over the same course and distance as this race on 28th October. While he won maiden at Chukyo on 18th December 2021, his difficult temperament harmed his performances and had been running poorly since then. He was gelded in July 2023, and the allowance race on 28th October was second start as a gelding for him. I feel that his temperament is much better and ALAIN VERITE is now able to concentrate for running during the race. It looks he is only horse with speed in the field and his front-running tactics should work well.  

 

My third choice is TAISEI FEERIQUE, who has been developing slowly. As like ALENTEJO, she was well beaten in three out of her first four starts. The 3YO filly by MIKKI ROCKET started to run well since May and finally collected her first win in a 1,800m maiden at Kokura on 27th August, which was a gutty performance. I feel she is now competitive against one time winners.    

 

My fourth choice is NIGHT CASTLE, who finished second in the Listed Hagi Stakes on October 29th 2022. TOP KNIFE, winner of Listed Hagi Stakes, finished second in the G1 Hopeful Stakes subsequently and I understand we should regard the form of the Hagi Stakes highly. While the 3YO colt by SILVER STATE was well beaten in the allowance race for one time winners at Niigata on 22nd October, it was first start for him since February and he needed the race. I am sure he should run much better on Sunday.

 

My fifth choice is OCEAN TRIBE. While this is the first start for him since July, he has been trained beautifully in the morning at Ritto Training Centre and I believe he is ready to run his race on Sunday.

 

SELECTIONS: 5. ALENTEJO, 6. ALAIN VERITE, 3. TAISEI FEERIQUE, 7. NIGHT CASTLE & 2. OCEAN TRIBE

1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-1: Multiple – 5. ALENTEJO & 6. ALAIN VERITE
S1-2: Multiple – 6. ASK DOUX PORTE & 9. HAGINO ALDEBARAN

 

S1-2     3yo and up 2 wins
This is an allowance race for two time winning 3YO and upper over 2,200m at Kyoto outer turf course, which run over the same course and distance as the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup, featured race on the day.

 

It is obvious that ASK DOUX PORTE is competitive at this class, as he finished second in the allowance race for two time winners at Hanshin on 10th September, and finished second again in another allowance race for two time winners over the same course and distance as this race on 8th October. BRAVE ROCKER, third finisher in that race, won the allowance race for two time winners at Kyoto on 21st October, and I understand we should regard the form of that race highly. I believe the time has come for ASK DOUX PORTE to graduate this class and select ASK DOUX PORTE as my favourite.

 

My second choice is HAGINO ALDEBARAN, who won a maiden at Kokura on 13th August and won the allowance race for one time winners at Kyoto on 21st October. His constitution was not very strong when he was a yearling and 2YO, and he has been developing slowly. I feel the 3YO colt by JUST A WAY has now matured physically and mentally. He has a good “sustainable speed” and 2,200m outer turf course at Kyoto is a suitable track for him.

 

MITAMA has been regarded highly by the connection from day one and has tried to run Graded Stakes twice. The 3YO filly by HEART’S CRY finished sixth in the G2 Shion Stakes at Nakayama on 9th September and I think it was a good effort, as she finished within 3.3 lengths from the winner. While she was beaten fifth in the allowance race for two time winners at Kyoto on 21st October, it was a tough race for runners who tracked leaders and I understand she ran bravely.  MITAMA won the allowance race for one time winning 3yo fillies over the same course and distance as this race on 29th April and I am sure this track is suitable for her. MITAMA is my third choice.

 

MEISHO GEKIRIN, who finished third in the allowance race for two time winners at Kyoto on 21st October, is my fourth choice. The 4YO colt by KIZUNA has finished third in the G3 Kisaragi Sho on 6th February 2022, and he should have a good chance to finish within first four in this race, if he re-produces his form on Sunday.

 

DERMA GREMLIN, who has strong late kick, is my fifth choice. The 4YO colt by DEE MAJESTY has finished second in the allowance race for two time winners at Hanshin on 17th June, and I assess he has an ability to compete well at this class.

 

SELECTIONS: 6. ASK DOUX PORTE, 9. HAGINO ALDEBARAN, 3. MITAMA, 10. MEISHO GEKIRIN & 2. DERMA GREMLIN

2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-2: Multiple – 6. ASK DOUX PORTE & 9. HAGINO ALDEBARAN
S1-3: Multiple – 12. YAMANIN OURS & 11. HAGINO ROCK ON

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:   
Banker – 6. ASK DOUX PORTE
Selections – 9. HAGINO ALDEBARAN, 3. MITAMA, 10. MEISHO GEKIRIN & 2. DERMA GREMLIN
S1-3:   
Banker – 12. YAMANIN OURS
Selections – 11. HAGINO ROCK ON, 4. PARTY BELL, 2. MEISHO KOJO & 9. EXCESS RETURN

 

S1-3     3yo and up 2 wins
This is the allowance race for two time winning 3YOs and upper over 1,900m at Kyoto dirt track. Front runners and runners who track leaders tend to enjoy far better result than runners who come from behind at this course.

 

My favourite is YAMANIN OURS who has started twice and won both of them easily. The runaway victory of the 3YO colt by JUST A WAY in his racecourse debut at Kokura on 20th August 2022 over 1,700m on dirt course was really impressive. After establishing new track record clocked by 2YOs, the fragile colt sidelined for eight months and returned at racecourse on 23rd April 2023, when he won the allowance race for one time winners at Kyoto by six lengths. This is first start for him since then. Although YAMANIN OURS is not a sound athlete, he has been trained well in the morning in last few weeks at Ritto Training Centre and I believe he is ready to run his race on Sunday. If so, YAMANIN OURS should win this race easily. 

 

My second choice is HAGINO ROCK ON, who has finished within first three in last five starts, including the allowance race for two time winners at Kyoto on 7th May, when the 4YO colt by MAJESTIC WARRIOR finished third. We should regard that form highly as the winner of that race won the allowance race for three time winners at Niigata on 7th August. While this is the first start for him since then, he is trained well in the morning at Ritto Training Centre and I reckon he is fit enough to run his race.

 

PARTY BELL, the most consistent runner in this field who has finished within the first three in his last five starts at the class for two time winners, is my third choice. While I assess the 4YO colt by HARBINGER has an ability to graduate this class, the 1,900m dirt track at Kyoto is not the most ideal track for PARTY BELL in my opinion. It is reason why I did not pick up him as my first or second choice here.

 

MEISHO KOJO, who finished second in allowance race for two time winners at Kyoto on 28th October, is my fourth choice. He had competed well at this class, finishing within first three in five consecutive races for two time winners from March 2021 through May 2022. Then, he lost his form and ran poorly in nine consecutive starts. His performance in the 1,800m race over the same course on 28th October has given me the impression that the 6YO horse by ORFEVRE has been bouncing back. 

 

EXCESS RETURN, who finished third in the allowance race for two time winners at Kyoto on 21st October, is my fifth choice. I assess it was a good effort, as it was the first start for him since March.

 

SELECTIONS: 12. YAMANIN OURS, 11. HAGINO ROCK ON, 4. PARTY BELL, 2. MEISHO KOJO & 9. EXCESS RETURN

3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-3: Multiple – 12. YAMANIN OURS & 11. HAGINO ROCK ON
S1-4: Multiple – 6. HERMODR & 4. CENTURY BOND

 

S1-4     Kigiku Sho
Kigiku Sho is stakes race for one time winning 2YOs over 2,000m at Kyoto turf course. This race was won by TO THE WORLD in 2013, who was the runner-up to ISLA BONITA in the 2014’s G1 Satsuki Sho. JUSTIN PALACE, who is the winner of this race in 2021, won the G1 Tenno Sho Spring this year. And POTAGER, winner of the G1 Osaka Hai in 2022, finished second in Kigiku Sho in 2019. I believe the field of Kigiku Sho this year should include a future star.

 

My favourite is HERMODR, who made successful racecourse debut at Fukushima on 9th July, when the big colt by MAURICE won a maiden over 2,000m, and finished third in a 2yo open at Hanshin on 23rd September. I understand HERMODR in that race is an unlucky loser. While HERMODR with Taisei Danno in the irons tried to find a path on rail side at the top of homestretch, there was no room there and Taisei Danno pulled him out. Then, he quickened well and finished third. If he has a smooth path on homestretch, I believe he should have won that race. I understand he is very talented and could be a future star. 

 

Another runner in this field who is as much talented as HERMODR is CENTURY BOND. The colt by KIZUNA finished third in his debut at Sapporo on 20th August and managed to win a maiden at Sapporo on 3rd September. Distance of both races he has run was 2,000m and I feel clear intention by the connection to cultivate CENTURY BOND as a mile and quarter specialist. CENTURY BOND should use front running tactics in Kigiku Sho and is my second choice.

 

My third choice is MIRACULOUS DRAMA, who finished second to CENTURY BOND in a maiden at Sapporo on 3rd September. The colt by EPIPHANEIA won a maiden at Hanshin on 23rd September by two and a half lengths and I feel he is certainly improving. He was breezed for 1,200m at Ritto Training Centre on 1st November and clocked 83.3 seconds. It was an impressive track work and I believe he is in top form now.   

 

FUNADE was close-entered in G2 Daily Hai Nisai Stakes at Kyoto on 11th November and the connection decided to send the colt by GOLD SHIP in Kiguku Sho. I think it is right choice as I reckon FUNADE prefers 2,000m, rather than 1,600m, which is the distance of Daily Hai Nisai Stakes. FUNADE is my fourth choice.

 

SELECTIONS: 6. HERMODR, 4. CENTURY BOND, 2. MIRACULOUS DRAMA & 3. FUNADE

4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 6. HERMODR & 4. CENTURY BOND
S1-5: Multiple – 6. SMART PHOLUS & 8. ARMS REIGN

 

S1-5     Muromachi Stakes
Muromachi Stakes is a handicap race for horses belonging to the class for Graded Stakes performers, over 1,200m at Kyoto dirt course. 

 

My favourite is SMART PHOLUS, who is one of the most consistent runners in the field. The 3YO colt by SINISTER MINISTER finished second in the Listed Enif Stakes at Hanshin on 9th September and finished second again in a 3yo+ Open race at Kyoto on 7th October, competing against older horses. I regard his performance in the last race highly, because he jumped from the widest draw and was forced to take wide trip all way through. I believe he has enough ability to graduate this class and dirt track at Kyoto is his favourite track, as he started there twice, won once and finished second once. I think he carries fair weight, 123lbs, and he is trained by Keiji Yoshimura, a man in the limelight since his OBAMBURUMAI won Golden Eagle which carried total purse of AUS$10,000,000 at Rosehill on 4th November.  

 

The horse to beat for SMART PHOLUS in Muromachi Stakes is ARMS REIGN, who won a 3yo+ 2 wins race by four lengths at Chukyo on 22nd July and won a 3yo+ 3 wins race by three and half lengths at Niigata on August 19th. It is obvious that the 3YO colt by COPANO RICKEY is rising like a sky rocket and is obvious that he prefers dirt track, although he acts well on turf as well. While he has never run at Kyoto Racecourse before, he is a versatile horse and I believe he can handle the track at Kyoto well.

 

My third choice is DUALIST, winner of Muromachi Stakes in 2021. Although the 5YO by MIKKI ISLE has not won a race this year, I reckon he has run well in last three starts, in which he carried 130lbs, 132lbs and 130lbs. And he suffered by traffic problem in all those three starts. As he has smooth path in Muromachi Stakes, I assess he has an ability to finish within first three.

 

My fourth choice is FERN HILL who was narrowly beaten second in a 3yo+ Open race at the same class as Muromachi Stakes at Fukushima on 23rd July. Although he was beaten eighth in his last race out on 20th August, he was upset in the stalls and could not show his true ability. 

 

CYCLOTRON, who finished second in a 4yo+ Open race at Kyoto Racecourse, which is the same course and same distance as Muromachi Stakes on 22nd April is my fifth choice. DON FRANKIE, winner of that race won the G3 Procyon Stakes subsequently and I understand we should regard the form of this race highly. 

 

SELECTIONS: 6. SMART PHOLUS, 8. ARMS REIGN, 4. DUALIST, 16. FERN HILL & 10. CYCLOTRON

5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 6. SMART PHOLUS & 8. ARMS REIGN
S1-6: Multiple – 1. BREDE WEG & 7. GERALDINA

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:   
Banker – 6. SMART PHOLUS
Selections – 8. ARMS REIGN, 4. DUALIST, 16. FERN HILL & 10. CYCLOTRON
S1-6:   
Banker – 1. BREDE WEG
Selections – 7. GERALDINA, 6. DIVINA, 13. SALIERA & 3. HARPER

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 6. SMART PHOLUS, 8. ARMS REIGN & 4. DUALIST
S1-6: Multiple – 1. BREDE WEG, 7. GERALDINA & 6. DIVINA
S1-7: Multiple – 8. EMPEROR WAKEA, 5. PEPTIDE TIGER & 3. FERVENTE

 

S1-6     Queen Elizabeth II Cup
The best filly in training in Japan is arguably LIBERTY ISLAND, winner of Triple Tiara for 3YO fillies in 2023. As LIBERTY ISLAND skips this race and is trained for G1 Japan Cup, where she will meet EQUINOX, the field of 2023 Queen Elizabeth II Cup looks to be wide open.   

 

I assess the second best 3YO filly in Japan is BREDE WEG, as I regard her performance in the G2 Rose Stakes very highly, and I select her as my first choice for Queen Elizabeth II Cup. MASKED DIVA, winner of the G2 Rose Stakes, established new track record, 1 minute 43.0 seconds over Hanshin turf 1,800m on 17th September and she finished second to LIBERTY ISLAND in the G1 Shuka Sho subsequently. Hence, I understand the standard of the G2 Rose Stakes was high. BREDE WEG was in fact defeated by MASKED DIVA in the G2 Rose Stakes, however, it was a tough race for the filly by LORD KANALOA, as she dwelt coming out of the stalls and could not have smooth path through far turn. She was still able to finish second, covering the final 600m for 32.9 seconds, the quickest time in 17 runners there, and Christophe Lemaire commented after the race that extra 400m shouldn’t be a problem for her. I believe she will be a big help for her sire LORD KANALOA, who is in close contest with DURAMENTE in Leading Sires’ Ranking, and for her broodmare sire DEEP IMPACT, who is in close contest with KING KAMEHAMEHA in the Leading Broodmare Sires’ Ranking.

 

My second choice is GERALDINA, who tries to achieve back-to-back win of this race. While the 5YO mare by MAURICE has failed to win a race since then, she finished third in the G1 Arima Kinen last December and fourth in the G1 Takarazuka Kinen earlier this year. I believe her fitness does not seem declining. 

 

DIVINA who won the G2 Fuchu Himba Stakes at Tokyo on 14th October, is my third choice. She is out of VERXINA, who was runner-up to GENTILDONNA, dam of GERALDINA, in all three legs of Triple Tiara in 2012, and I understand DIVINA has the potential to compete well against GERALDINA in Queen Elizabeth II Cup from the view point of pedigree.

 

My fourth choice is SALIERA, who finished third in the G2 Meguro Kinen, competing against male runners, at Tokyo on 28th May. Although she was well beaten in the G3 Niigata Kinen at Niigata on 3rd September, she suffered bruised foot a week before Niigata Kinen and was not in top form. SALIERA is now trained much better at Ritto Training Centre for Queen Elizabeth II Cup. And it is an encouraging factor that Tom Marquand is booked for her on Sunday.

 

HARPER, who has finished within first four in all three legs of Triple Tiara in 2023, is my fifth choice. 

 

SELECTIONS: 1. BREDE WEG, 7. GERALDINA, 6. DIVINA, 13. SALIERA & 3. HARPER

6TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 1. BREDE WEG & 7. GERALDINA
S1-7: Multiple – 8. EMPEROR WAKEA & 5. PEPTIDE TIGER

 

S1-7     Doncaster Cup
Doncaster Cup is stakes race for two time winning 3YO and upper over 1,400m at Kyoto dirt course. Doncaster Racecourse in the UK and Kyoto Racecourse in Japan are sister racecourses, as both of them are stage of final leg of Triple Crown for 3YOs, and Doncaster Cup at Kyoto Racecourse was inaugurated in 1989.  

 

My favourite is EMPEROR WAKEA, lightly-raced 3YO colt by LORD KANALOA. He graduated novice class at Hanshin on 12th November 2022, when he won maiden over 1,400m dirt course by 10 lengths. He sidelined for eight months, due to having series of training setback, and EMPEROR WAKEA returned at racecourse on 8th July, when he won the allowance race for one time winners at Chukyo, although his physical fitness was still around 60%. EMPEROR WAKEA was beaten second in the allowance race for two time winners at Hanshin on 17th September, and I regard this form highly, because it was the first time for him to compete against two time winners and he dwelt coming out of stalls. I am sure he has an ability to graduate this class.

 

My second choice is PEPTIDE TIGER, who has started eight times so far and finished within first five in all starts. The 3YO colt by DEE MAJESTY won the allowance race for one time winners over the same course and distance as Doncaster Cup by five lengths on 15th October. Although this is the first time for him to compete against the two time winners, I reckon he should be competitive at his class. And Kyoto is his favourite track, where he started twice so far, won once, and finished second once.    

 

My third choice is FERVENTE, who has been running well at this class in last three starts. The 3YO colt by DANON BALLADE finished third, 0.8 length in the 3yo Open over the same course and distance as Doncaster Cup on 30th April. As SMART PHOLUS, winner of that race, finished second in the Listed Enif Stakes subsequently, I understand we should regard the form of the 3yo Open highly. Although he was beaten fourth in allowance race for two time winners at Kokura on 2nd September, he dwelt coming out of stalls and should have run better if he breaks quickly.   

 

My fourth choice is SPECTROGRAM, who finished third, beaten by one length, in the allowance for two time winners over the same course and distance as Doncaster Cup on 14th October. His time there, 1 minute and 24.2 seconds, was faster than standard time and I believe he has an ability to finish within the first four here.

 

TRIPLE LOOP, who finished fourth in allowance race for two time winners at Tokyo on 22nd October, is my fifth choice. I feel she is improving and the 3YO filly by JUSTIFY should have capacity to finish within first five here.

 

SELECTIONS: 8. EMPEROR WAKEA, 5. PEPTIDE TIGER, 3. FERVENTE, 2. SPECTROGRAM & 15. TRIPLE LOOP

 

 

 

 

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