Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Expert Column for Japan Cup (S1-1) (Naohiro Goda)

S1-1     Japan Cup

While there are so many uncertain factors in horse racing, I cannot find a reason not to select EQUINOX as my favourite in the 2023 Japan Cup.  

EQUINOX, the world highest-rated horse unbeaten in his last five starts since last autumn, was transferred from Miho Training Center to Tenei Branch of Northern Farm two days after the G1 Tenno Sho Autumn at Tokyo on 29th October. He established an astonishing new track record, 1 minute and 55.2 seconds, over 2,000m on turf at Tokyo. The 4YO colt by KITASAN BLACK was refreshed at Tenei and returned at Tetsuya Kimura’s barn at Miho on 10th November. He was breezed at woodchip course at Miho on 15th for 1,200m and clocked 81.8 seconds. He covered the final 200m for 11.4 seconds, while the rider was motionless, and I am convinced he is kept in top form. 

While I select EQUINOX as my favourite with assurance, I don’t recognize this year’s Japan Cup as an “one horse race”, because the field includes LIBERTY ISLAND, who swept all three legs of Triple Tiara for 3YO fillies this year. The list of recent Japan Cup winners includes 3YO fillies, such as ALMOND EYE and GENTILDONNA, both of whom are winners of Triple Tiara. While I pick up LIBERTY ISLAND as my second choice, I think LIBERTY ISLAND, who carries 119lbs in Japan Cup, is able to beat EQUINOX, who carries 128lbs, if LIBERTY ISLAND is as good as ALMOND EYE.

My third choice is DEEP BOND, who finished third in the G2 Kyoto Daishoten on 9th October. I assess it was a good effort, as it was first start for him since June, and I am sure he runs much better on Sunday.

My fourth choice is STARS ON EARTH, winner of G1 Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) over the same course and distance as Japan Cup in 2022. She suffered a series of training setback, including bruised foot which was found a few days before G1 Tenno Sho Autumn, and she hasn’t won a race since the Japanese Oaks in fact. However, the 4YO filly by DURAMENTE has been trained well since she resumed full training on 8th November and it is encouraging factor that William Buick is booked for her on Sunday.

My fifth choice is VELA AZUL, winner of Japan Cup twelve months ago. While his recent form is poor, Tokyo is his favourite track. Still have a chance.

SELECTIONS: 2. EQUINOX, 1. LIBERTY ISLAND, 14. DEEP BOND, 17. STARS ON EARTH & 9. VELA AZUL

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