 Expert - Brett Davis | |
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| Brett Davis was introduced to Australian Racing by his father back in the early 1980’s when his family became involved in formulating “Thoroughbred Racing Syndications”. Brett worked from 1995 as a Professional Form Analysts and Race Broadcaster with an array of companies throughout most parts of the Australia Racing industry. He currently resides in Adelaide, his hometown in Australia, where he is Chief Thoroughbred Race Caller and Form Analyst for Tabcorp / SkyChannel / RadioTAB. Brett Davis also spent 2 years with the Singapore Turf Club and 13 Racing Seasons with the Hong Kong Jockey Club between 2006 to 2019 as a leading Form Analyst / Race Caller and was the HKJC Chief Race Caller from 2014, calling the last 5 Hong Kong International (Turf World Championships) race meetings and over 50 G1 races. Brett has immense passion for Australian Racing both personally and professionally. With his diverse knowledge and long standing industry relations he’s a valuable asset to racing and it’s enthusiasts. | |
Expert Column for Queen Elizabeth Stakes Day (S1) (Brett Davis)
S1-1 Fernhill Mile Handicap
JUST PARTY has the biggest weight to carry following a win and second from his two career starts. He’s a smashing looking young son of sire JUSTIFY that’s already displayed above average ability and talent. Stepping up to 1,600m doesn’t appear to be any issue and he may even push on early in an attempt to lead. Like most in this contest he’s chasing a sizeable bonus should he be able to win.
BROADSIDING has the benefit of three starts under his saddle and therefore has race fitness on his side. From day one he’s indicated he’ll be looking for more ground and that’s precisely what he’ll get this time out. The draw looks awkward on paper, but it should allow him more time to find his feet, which in turn allows him time to balance and fully let down.
KILLCARE BEACHGIRL display plenty of courage in her debut win at Wyong after being heavily bumped out the gates. She then picked herself up and established the lead before staying on well enough to score. She’ll be improved by the run and draws ideally for a young horse in gate one. She’s trained by the powerful Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott stable.
RASP enjoyed a brief freshen up before returning to Wyong last start where he found the line with purpose. He’s a lovely looking young lad by STREET BOSS and I’m expecting him to run well. He’s nicely in at the weights, appears reasonably fit and Jamie Kah now jumps aboard for the ride. He can improve enough to feature.
EL CASTELLO is more difficult to assess after just the one start in maiden company, but he wouldn’t be here if he couldn’t run. He’s bred to get over further ground than the 1,600m so he may be worth including at a nice price. He’s got ability, we saw that on debut, and therefore worthy of including in exotics.
SELECTIONS: 1. JUST PARTY, 3. BROADSIDING, 6. KILLCARE BEACHGIRL, 7. RASP & 5. EL CASTELLO
1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-1: Multiple – 1. JUST PARTY & 3. BROADSIDING
S1-2: Multiple – 11. MIDNIGHT OPAL & 3. KAIZAD
S1-2 South Pacific Classic
MIDNIGHT OPAL looked quite smart in his initial campaign after winning his first two starts at Scone then Kembla Grange. He was then sent to the Inglis Sprint first up this time in and performed admirably against some quality opponents. A fifth placing recently in the Listed Darby Munro Stakes behind BRAVE MEAD is a strong reference for this event and therefore he rates amongst the chances.
KAIZAD was excellent last campaign when winning the G3 Carbine Club Stakes over 1,600m and he did it by leading all the way. He was definitely in need of his opening run this time in after tiring over the final stages in the Listed Darby Munro Stakes. He’s got plenty of class on his side and the inside gate looks gold so expect him to improve noticeably now he’s fitter.
ROBRICK began awkwardly and then ran into trouble mid race in the Listed Darby Munro Stakes and never recovered. His effort previous in the Inglis Sprint however was superb after settling near last then powering home into second. That performance would go close to winning this race today, but he’ll need a perfect ride from his likely settling position towards the back.
PANIC showed plenty of natural speed in his opening few runs and during that time picked up two wins. He again won first up this campaign for rider Tommy Berry but in doing so took the option to settle further back, after drawing a wide gate. He’s progressing nicely and hasn’t made many mistakes to this point so he’s a runner worthy of respect.
LIVELY won her first race at Warrnambool by a hefty space and during the process gave nothing else a chance. She again won first up this preparation at Pakenham before closing of well recently in the G3 Don Casboult Classic to finish fourth. She draws well for her first race in Sydney and current Hong Kong rider Andrea Atzeni has been booked to ride.
SELECTIONS: 11. MIDNIGHT OPAL, 3. KAIZAD, 4. ROBRICK, 9. PANIC & 12. LIVELY
2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-2: Multiple – 11. MIDNIGHT OPAL & 3. KAIZAD
S1-3: Multiple – 2. STRAIT ACER & 8. TERRITORY EXPRESS
S1-3 Provincial-Midway Championships Final
STRAIT ACER gave away a huge start at Wyong most recently but thundered home powerfully to finish a frustrating second. The wide barrier definitely cost him the win on that occasion so with any luck here he’ll go one better. He finished fourth in the Golden Eagle last year and was placed in the G1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes over 1,400m, so he’s got most of these covered for class with the right run.
TERRITORY EXPRESS has returned in excellent form this campaign with his recent performance in the G2 Ajax Stakes a career best. He bumped into a field of quality horses that day and finished second. He always gives away a start, which can be costly at times, but he should be rocketing into the picture when it counts.
SHADOWS OF LOVE hasn’t made too many errors over the past four months with just the one narrow defeat at Rosehill registered in that time. With her confidence up and literally running she’s ready to take the next step and rise in distance to 1,400m. It’ll be her first trip to Randwick which may be of some concern, but she’s handled all previous travel, so she’s given the benefit of doubt.
TAVI TIME was super impressive winning a handicap in Mudgee in December last year before a short break was enjoyed. He then returned to racing in early March with a dominant victory at Newcastle where he started a short price favourite. He then found one better at Rosehill recently in a BM88 handicap where he was again expected to win. He’s absolutely flying this campaign and should be right in the finish, but the outside barrier is a slight concern.
WILLINGA FREEFALL shall be peaking at the right time for this feature final and with James McDonald aboard he’s difficult to completely overlook. It’s a wide-open race with plenty of genuine hopes so luck in running shall certainly play its part. This guy’s form is rock solid around the right type of horses but he’ll probably give away a costly and reasonable start.
SELECTIONS: 2. STRAIT ACER, 8. TERRITORY EXPRESS, 5. SHADOWS OF LOVE, 1. TAVI TIME & 14. WILLINGA FREEFALL
3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-3: Multiple – 2. STRAIT ACER & 8. TERRITORY EXPRESS
S1-4: Multiple – 5. ENEEZA & 1. LADY OF CAMELOT
S1-4 Percy Sykes Stakes
ENEEZA was extremely honest in the G1 Blue Diamond Stakes before the wide gate and traffic congestion cost her ground in the G1 Golden Slipper. She has the benefit of two runs over the 1,200m now under her belt plus the priceless experience of racing in the opposite and clockwise direction. With Damien Lane on board from a perfect draw I wouldn’t imagine there’ll be too many mistakes made, so she can definitely challenge for the win.
LADY OF CAMELOT has all the pressure on her after taking out the world’s richest 2YO race the G1 Golden Slipper. She’s a fast-running machine that enjoys the on speed challenge of fighting off opponents one by one. She must carry clear top weight now with a G1 winning penalty attached and she’s also drawn a little ugly out wide. Conversely, she possesses the natural speed to cross and lead and from there she’ll take a stack of running down.
CASTANYA recorded a fast final 600m when powering home from well back to win the Listed Lonhro Plate. Her first crack at 1,200m in the G3 Magic Night Stakes was a solid effort in defeat considering she was held up badly on more than one occasion. She’s got plenty of room to improve and appears a top liner in the making provided she continues to raise the bar.
DRIFTING has only tasted defeat once in her short career and that occurred when she travelled to Flemington. She’ll be much more comfortable now she’s back on her home deck and shall push forward from the low advantageous draw to potentially lead. Her depth of class shall thereafter be challenged when they turn for home, but she’ll be well positioned to defend.
AMEENA makes her way to Sydney following a bold, but defeated, front running display in the G3 TBV Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes at Flemington last start. She’ll need to improve her strength over 1,200m if she’s to be a major player but a close to the rails draw can assist. She’ll position well, whilst scrambling for the lead early on, which shall entitle her to every chance in the run.
SELECTIONS: 5. ENEEZA, 1. LADY OF CAMELOT, 6. CASTANYA, 3. DRIFTING & 12. AMEENA
4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 5. ENEEZA & 1. LADY OF CAMELOT
S1-5: Multiple – 1. OZZMOSIS & 6. SCHWARZ
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-4:
Banker – 5. ENEEZA
Selections – 1. LADY OF CAMELOT, 6. CASTANYA, 3. DRIFTING & 12. AMEENA
S1-5:
Banker – 1. OZZMOSIS
Selections – 6. SCHWARZ, 11. JOLIESTAR, 12. LEARNING TO FLY & 2. ARKANSAW KID
S1-5 Arrowfield 3yo Sprint (Royal Sovereign Stakes)
OZZMOSIS has been touted a potential star on the rise following an outstanding spring where he won the G1 Coolmore Stud Stakes at Flemington. Prior to that victory he also defeated last week’s G1 Doncaster Mile winner CELESTIAL LEGEND in the Listed Heritage Stakes at Rosehill. However, everything went wrong upon return in the G1 Galaxy at Rosehill and he’s since been forced to trial. It was a quiet, no fuss, piece of work on the Warwick Farm synthetic track that satisfied the stewards, so I’d now expect him to atone.
SCHWARZ returned with a polished performance in the Listed Darby Munro Stakes when attempting to wear down a very smart winner in BRAVE MEAD. That form has the ability to measure up in this particular G2 contest and the booking of James McDonald catches the eye. With positional speed at the ready, and a turn of foot to boot, he should run a big race despite being up in grade.
JOLIESTAR returns to racing following a much-deserved summer break and has trialed with intent and purpose leading in. The G1 Thousand Guineas winner from last campaign is yet to finish further back than second and she’s difficult to take on from the gate and at sets weights. Whether she’ll be in need of the outing only time shall tell but the jockey booking certainly suggests that might be the case.
LEARNING TO FLY is an extremely progressive 3YO filly who should be given a realistic chance of winning despite drawing nearer the outside rail. The return to 1,200m is also seen as a plus with the 1,400m of the G1 Surround Stakes recently stretching her stamina. She’s tactically versatile, can run well on any type of surface and nicely placed under the set weights scale.
ARKANSAW KID chased home hard in the listed Sunlight Classic first up which caught a few people of guard. He’s been to Randwick before and did finish seventh in the 2023 G1 Golden Slipper at Rosehill, so I wouldn’t be underestimating his presence.
SELECTIONS: 1. OZZMOSIS, 6. SCHWARZ, 11. JOLIESTAR, 12. LEARNING TO FLY & 2. ARKANSAW KID
5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 1. OZZMOSIS & 6. SCHWARZ
S1-6: Multiple – 1. ORCHESTRAL & 3. ZARDOZI
S1-6 Australian Oaks
ORCHESTRAL is touted as a young super star and it’s easy to decipher why. Her performance to defeat the boys in the G1 New Zealand Derby over 2,400m was both brilliant, and partially arrogant, in the way she put them away. She was then just as brilliant in her first Australian start when she dashed home to grab the prize in the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes over the shorter 2,000m. Returning to 2,400m makes her almost impossible to tip against so it’s now up to James McDonald to put on a show.
ZARDOZI is on track to win the G1 Australian Oaks with the Godolphin team scratching her from last week’s G1 Australian Derby against the boys. With a fifty percent win strike rate and the G1 VRC Oaks already to her name there are no queries around distance, class or expected race conditions. The incredible Tom Marquand also takes the ride so there are many reasons to suggest she can win.
QUINTESSA has performed admirably since arriving from New Zealand and is peaking at the right time. She’s been up a going for a while but the two runs in Australia, so far, have her spot on for this major assignment. She’s drawn well, rated accordingly and has champion rider Opie Bosson aboard, so she only has to run out the 2,400m stronger than her opponents.
TUTTA LA VITA lead the field when they turned for home in the G1 Vinery Stud Stakes and fought hard to the wire. She’s definitely showed signs of a fighting spirit and if she can carry that through 2,400m she’ll be in it till the end. Nash Rawiller shall have the lead and rail insight once the starting gates open, and I can’t see anything beating her for pace.
AUTUMN ANGEL has a tricky draw but with excellent rider Mark Zahra aboard she’ll be given a great chance. It’s her second trip to Sydney after running boldly in the G3 Adrian Knox Stakes last week, but she’s pulled up well by all reports despite the heavy track. She’s up in trip to 2,400m for the first time and requires a career best but she shouldn’t be faraway at the end.
SELECTIONS: 1. ORCHESTRAL, 3. ZARDOZI, 2. QUINTESSA, 4. TUTTA LA VITA & 5. AUTUMN ANGEL
6TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 1. ORCHESTRAL & 3. ZARDOZI
S1-7: Multiple – 3. ASHRUN & 12. CIRCLE OF FIRE
S1-7 Sydney Cup
ASHRUN was a gallant second in the G3 Geelong Cup last year before running a bold race to finish fourth in the 2023 G1 Melbourne Cup over 3,200m. He returned to racing this campaign with an encouraging fourth at Caulfield over an insufficient distance before being well tried to win the Listed Pakenham Cup. His quest to win the G1 Sydney Cup ticked over nicely last start with a superb run to finish third in the G1 Tancred Stakes at weight for age. He now arrives at the doorstep of his ultimate goal this campaign and I can’t fault him in any way.
CIRCLE OF FIRE is a lightly raced son of ALMANZOR who’s literally just begun his Australian racing career. He’s quickly put himself into contention for this classic event with a hard-core staying performance to win the G2 Chairman’s Quality. That event was run on a heavy surface only a week ago so the quick back up scenario now comes into play. The overall depth of opposition appears a challenge in conjunction with a rise to 3,200m, but he’s a young fresh thoroughbred on a very light weight.
GLENTANEOUS has the miles in the legs and is ready to tackle this wide open and intriguing contest over 3,200m. His win in the Listed 2,800m Bagot Handicap on a firm track announced his arrival as a genuine quality stayer that’s been honest in defeat ever since. He’ll need to produce a career best if he’s going to be in the finish, but he’s had an ideal preparation, is perfectly drawn, lightly weighted and Jamie Kah is to ride.
KALAPOUR has been excellent so far this campaign and completely got under the guard of punters in the G1 Tancred Stakes. He displayed amazing determination over the concluding stages, under weight for age conditions, to fend off MORE FELONS who would’ve likely started favourite for this race had he not been scratched. He’s the highest rated runner that’s not carrying the greatest amount of weight.
MAHRAJAAN began his racing career in England before transfer to New Zealand at the end of 2022. The 6YO son of American sire KITTEN’S JOY has won two races over 3,200m, the G3 New Zealand Cup and the G2 Auckland Cup respectively. The form out of his most recent victory, the G2 Auckland Cup, has already stood up in Australia with the third-placegetter MARK TWAIN winning his next start.
SELECTIONS: 3. ASHRUN, 12. CIRCLE OF FIRE, 13. GLENTANEOUS, 7. KALAPOUR & 2. MAHRAJAAN
7TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-7: Multiple – 3. ASHRUN & 12. CIRCLE OF FIRE
S1-8: Multiple – 7. PRIDE OF JENNI & 8. VIA SISTINA
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-7:
Banker – 3. ASHRUN
Selections – 12. CIRCLE OF FIRE, 13. GLENTANEOUS, 7. KALAPOUR & 2. MAHRAJAAN
S1-8:
Banker – 7. PRIDE OF JENNI
Selections – 8. VIA SISTINA, 2. CASCADIAN, 10. PLACE DU CARROUSEL & 1. MR BRIGHTSIDE
S1-8 Queen Elizabeth Stakes
PRIDE OF JENNI has caught the attention of the entire Australian racing industry over the past six months with her brutal front running power and fight. The 6YO mare has been narrowly beaten only twice in her five previous starts and in the process racked up a pair of G1 wins and the All-Star Mile. Her stamina shall once again be under fire as she attempts the 2,000m at Randwick for just the second time, but the way she’s feeling and competing it’ll take an almighty performance to run her down.
VIA SISTINA held up her end of the bargain when she produced a dazzling Australian debut to win the G1 Ranvet Stakes at Rosehill over 2,000m. It was her second G1 victory after winning the G1 Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh in Ireland in July 2023, before finishing runner up in the G1 Champion Stakes at Ascot in October 2023. She’s a highly talented filly with an explosive turn of foot and she’ll only be better for the outing, considering it was her first run off the plane.
CASCADIAN is a 9YO these days, but the multiple G1 winning veteran shouldn’t be underestimated after his fast finishing win in the 2024 G1 Australian Cup. He looked amazing running down PRIDE OF JENNI in the final stages to make it back to back wins and there’s no doubt the long Flemington straight is what helped him get it done. It’ll be a different race all together returning to this classic G1 Sydney event, but the old boy is seemingly going as good, if not better, than ever before.
PLACE DU CARROUSEL is another former European mare under the ownership of Yu Long Investments who made an excellent Australian debut. Like VIA SISTINA she’s already a G1 winner and was perfectly prepared for her first up run in the G1 Ranvet Stakes, where she finished second. She’s unbeaten second up and capable of stretching out over further ground so if they run this hard, which it’s likely to be, she’ll cope well with the hard-core pressure along way out from home.
MR BRIGHTSIDE is in line for an Australian horse of the year title with four G1 wins to his credit this season and a win today would all but seal the deal. Incredibly, the 2,000m is a distance he’s yet to win over from four attempts however he did go within a whisker of defeating ROMANTIC WARRIOR in the 2023 G1 Cox Plate. However, his effort recently in the G1 Australian Cup did expose signs of jarring and tiredness, so there are doubts about whether he’s perhaps had enough.
SELECTIONS: 7. PRIDE OF JENNI, 8. VIA SISTINA, 2. CASCADIAN, 10. PLACE DU CARROUSEL & 1. MR BRIGHTSIDE
8TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-8: Multiple – 7. PRIDE OF JENNI & 8. VIA SISTINA
S1-9: Multiple – 2. ZOUGOTCHA & 5. SEMANA
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-8: Multiple – 7. PRIDE OF JENNI, 8. VIA SISTINA & 2. CASCADIAN
S1-9: Multiple – 2. ZOUGOTCHA, 5. SEMANA & 1. ATISHU
S1-10: Multiple – 1. RED CARD, 4. TASHI & 3. WEE NESSY
S1-9 Queen of the Turf Stakes
ZOUGOTCHA has returned the fully furnished product this campaign and her win in the G1 Coolmore Classic highlighted her desperate desire to win. She’ll meet a similar and highly talented field stepping up to the 1,600m today and the race appears within her grasp after drawing perfectly in gate one. James McDonald understands that if she’s to remain unbeaten this time in she can’t afford any errors or mistakes, so you’d therefore predict that whatever defeats her probably wins.
SEMANA was extremely honest in the G1 Coolmore Classic when runner up to ZOUGOTCHA and did it the hard way after drawing a near outside gate. The barrier positions are to some extent in her favour today as she comes up with a better draw in gate four. The majority of fancied runners have all drawn well so tactics and jostling could certainly play a part, but her overall form reads well enough to win so she must be given a strong chance.
ATISHU began her career in New Zealand before transferring to the stable of Chris Waller in Australia from Stephen Marsh. Since then the daughter of SAVABEEL has racked up many wins including multiple G2 and G1 victories. She chased home some of the best going around last start in the G1 Australia Cup so a drop back in trip reads swell. Her affiliation with Randwick should also be acknowledged, which further enhance her prospects of a win.
ETERNAL FLAME is a powerful and good-looking filly that’ll catch your eye when you see her parading in the yard. She’s also developed into a highly promising galloper who looks ready to take on the task and depths of a G1. Her win in the G2 Sunline Stakes was both superb, and somewhat green, so there’s definitely better to come. If she can handle the travel, track and overall occasion, I won’t be at all surprised to see her win.
TROPICAL SQUALL appears the logical leader and if given too much peace in front shall take some running down. Her racing style is ideal for this type of high-quality event. All other jockeys should be hopefully aware, that if given to much leeway under the lighter weight, she can pinch this race and go all the way.
SELECTIONS: 2. ZOUGOTCHA, 5. SEMANA, 1. ATISHU, 7. ETERNAL FLAME & 14. TROPICAL SQUALL
9TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-9: Multiple – 2. ZOUGOTCHA & 5. SEMANA
S1-10: Multiple – 1. RED CARD & 4. TASHI
S1-10 Sapphire Stakes
RED CARD has established herself as a reliable galloper this campaign and now boasts a record of 8 wins from 16 starts. She generally appreciates leading her races, and if entirely possible, on her own. She’ll be asked to extend out to 1,200m on this occasion which gives the hard closers their chance, but as a genuine powerhouse front running machine, she’s going to be hard to stop.
TASHI has terrific statistics over this particular course and distance and taking her on shall likely end up a big mistake. Her effort to get within a length of CHAIN OF LIGHTNING in the G3 Birthday Card Stakes was enormous, especially considering the aforementioned mare has since gone on to win the coveted G1 T J Smith Stakes. Her overall win strike rate doesn’t yet read the way it probably should, but the way she’s returned this campaign that’s likely soon to change.
WEE NESSY is a well-travelled and well-established group campaigner these days. She’s hasn’t done a great deal of racing the past twelve months, but you wouldn’t know it by the way she’s performing. She’s been right there at the completion of both her runs this time around and I’d expect something similar today.
SALTAIRE has shown a liking for Randwick and proven in the past she can cope with races around this level. Her second place in the G3 Red Roses Stakes in November last year was enormous in defeat after giving away a big start. The inside draw looks good, and the two barrier trials at Randwick undertaken in March suggest she’s ready to perform.
MISS HELLFIRE had excuses last start in the G3 Wenona Girl Quality after meeting with interference at a crucial time. She was working into the finish nicely at that particular moment and it would’ve been interesting to see how close she got. Michael Dee now takes the reins from an even barrier draw so she’s therefore considered a chance if it all goes smooth.
SELECTIONS: 1. RED CARD, 4. TASHI, 3. WEE NESSY, 14. SALTAIRE & 7. MISS HELLFIRE
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