 Expert - Naohiro Goda | |
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| Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin. | |
Expert Column for Victoria Mile Day (S1) (Naohiro Goda)
S1-1 3yo 1 win
This is the allowance race for one time winning 3YOs over 1,800m turf track.
My favourite is COR LEONIS, who is half-sister to HARP STAR, winner of G1 Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) in 2014. The well-bred colt by REY DE ORO could not meet the high expectation in 2023, when he was winless though three starts. And he was beaten sixth at Kyoto on 6th January, which was his first start in 2024. The connections felt they needed to change something, and decided to use new tactics in next start. In the race at Chukyo on 16th March, COR LEONIS ridden by Kota Fujioka hit the front soon after the break and tried to control the race at front. This change of tactics worked very well. COR LEONIS covered final 600m for 35.5 seconds, which was the quickest in 12 runners, and completed wire-to-wire victory. It is impressive performance and I reckon he should be competitive at higher class. Though this is the first time for him to run at Tokyo Racecourse, I feel the galloping wide track should suit him, and COR LEONIS is able to graduate the class for one time winner on Sunday.
My second choice is SHOWMAN FLEET, who finished fifth in G3 Shinzan Kinen at Kyoto on 8th January. I assess it was a good effort, as we consider that he jumped from wide draw. The colt by SUAVE RICHARD finished second in the race for one time winning 3YOs at Nakayama on 13th April, and I am sure he is competitive at this class. Although he was beaten tenth in G3 Kyodo News Hai at Tokyo on 11th February, he was bumped badly soon after the break and I believe we should forget about this poor performance.
My third choice is SATONO ORACION. The colt by SATONO DIAMOND finished third at Tokyo on 17th February, and I regard this form highly, as ADMIRE BELLE, second finisher in that race, won the G2 race subsequently. Though he was beaten eighth in the race for one time winning 3YOs at Nakayama on 9th March, he does not like wet track and should run much better on Sunday, when the track should be good. And it is favourable factor that Joao Moreira is booked for him.
GRAN CANTANTE, who finished second in the last start at Nakayama on 6th April, is my fourth choice. KOGANENO SORA, winner of that race, won a listed race subsequently and I reckon GRAN CANTANTE should be competitive at this class.
My fifth choice is BIRDWATCHER, who is out of APAPANE, winner of Japanese Triple Tiara for 3YOs in 2010. While he hasn’t met the high expectation yet, he is trained much better in the morning at Miho Training Centre in recent weeks and I am not surprised if he runs a big race on Sunday.
SELECTIONS: 11. COR LEONIS, 9. SHOWMAN FLEET, 5. SATONO ORACION, 2. GRAN CANTANTE & 1. BIRDWATCHER
1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-1: Multiple – 11. COR LEONIS & 9. SHOWMAN FLEET
S1-2: Multiple – 2. KA PILINA & 14. ANGE GROOVE
S1-2 3yo 1 win
Allowance for one time winners 3YOs at 1,400m dirt track at Tokyo.
My favourite is KA PILINA. The filly by DUNKIRK finished second in Maiden for 2YO Newcomer on 2nd December and fourth in Novice on 6th January, both of which are races over 1,800m dirt track at Nakayama. Toshiaki Tajima, who trains the filly, selected Novice over 1,400m dirt track at Tokyo on 3rd February, as the third start for the filly, and KA PILINA won this Novice by 10.5 lengths. I am not surprised to see the shorter distance suits KA PILINA well, as she is half sister to LEI HALIA, winner of G3 Keeneland Cup over 1,200m. KA PILINA finished second in the allowance race for one time winning 3YOs at Tokyo on 21st April, and I assess it was a good effort. I believe KA PILINA has a good chance to graduate this class on Sunday, and should be competitive at higher class.
My second choice is ANGE GROOVE. The 3YO filly had a training setback after winning Maiden at Sapporo on 2nd September 2023 and was sidelined for few months. She returned at racecourse on 25th February 2024, when she finished sixth in the race for one time winner at Kokura. And she finished fifth in the allowance race for one time winners at Tokyo on 20th April. Her performance in that race is much better than before, and I am sure her condition has been improving significantly. And I have a feeling that the distance of this race, 1,400m, should suit better for her.
My third choice is VOL STER. Although this is first time to compete at this class, he won the Novice at Kyoto’s 1400m dirt track for 1 minute and 23.4seconds, and I assess he can run well against one time winners. While this is the first start for him since January, he is trained well at Ritto Training Center and I believe he is ready to run his race on Sunday.
BELLWETHER, who finished fourth in Allowance for one time winning 3YOs at Hanshin on 10th March, covering final 600m for 36.7 seconds, which was the quickest in 14 runners, is my fourth choice. I believe the track at Tokyo, which has long homestretch, should suit BELLWETHER, who has such strong late kick.
NOBLE GALE who won the maiden at Nakayama on 31st March by five lengths, is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 2. KA PILINA, 14. ANGE GROOVE, 3. VOL STER, 4. BELLWETHER & 9. NOBLE GALE
2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-2: Multiple – 2. KA PILINA & 14. ANGE GROOVE
S1-3: Multiple – 4. LAPIN RAPIDE & 8. IL CIRCO
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-2:
Banker – 2. KA PILINA
Selections – 14. ANGE GROOVE, 3. VOL STER, 4. BELLWETHER & 9. NOBLE GALE
S1-3:
Banker – 4. LAPIN RAPIDE
Selections – 8. IL CIRCO, 7. VISPAMENTE, 6. MEISHO SANGA & 3. TOSEN WALT
S1-3 4yo and up 1 win
This is the allowance race for one time winning 4YOs and uppers at 1,800m turf track.
My favorite is LAPIN RAPIDE, who finished third in the allowance race for one time winners over the same course and distance as this race on 27th January and finished second in the allowance race for one time winners at Nakayama on 7th April. Those form proves that LAPIN RAPIDE is competitive at this class. I regard his performance at Nakayama on 7th April highly, because the track condition was soft. I understand LAPIN RAPIDE prefers good ground and he should run much better on Sunday, when good ground is expected.
My second choice is IL CIRCO, who has finished second twice at this class. She lost her form in spring and early summer in 2023, and Yasuhito Tamura, who trains the mare, decided to give her a long break. Refreshed IL CIRCO reappeared at racecourse on March 17th, when she finished third in Allowance for one time winners at Nakayama. I reckon it was a good effort, as it was first start for her since July 2023. She has been trained very well at Miho Training Center since the previous start and I believe she performs well on Sunday.
My third choice is VISPAMENTE. The 5YO mare made a big move at backstretch when she finished third in Allowance for one time winners at Chukyo on 16th March. I think it was too early to make the move and she should stay at rear of field until top of homestretch, in order to make good use of her strong late kick. Although this is first time for her to run at Tokyo Racecourse, I believe it should suit her well.
My fourth choice is MEISHO SANGA, who finished second last time at Niigata on 28th April. The 7YO horse is a closer who has strong late kick and I believe the track at Tokyo, which has long homestretch, should suit him. And this small field should help him as well.
My fifth choice is TOSEN WALT. When he won Novice at Sapporo on 13th August 2022, third finisher was TOP KNIFE, who finished second in G1 Hopeful Stakes in 2023, and it was natural that the connections had a high expectation on him. Even though, the 4YO colt disappointed the connections as he lost 12 races in a row since then. However, I have a feeling that his morning track works in recent weeks are better than before, and he should have a chance to hit the board here.
SELECTIONS: 4. LAPIN RAPIDE, 8. IL CIRCO, 7. VISPAMENTE, 6. MEISHO SANGA & 3. TOSEN WALT
3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-3: Multiple – 4. LAPIN RAPIDE & 8. IL CIRCO
S1-4: Multiple – 1. GO TO FIRST & 6. KITANO BRIDE
S1-4 Teletama Hai
Teletama Hai is a stakes race for two-time winners. When you look back the results of last ten running of Teletama Hai, you find three out of ten races were won by a betting favourite, two other races were won by second favourite, and three other races were won by third favourite. Therefore, we should forecast this race straightforwardly.
Well-suited runner for the past tendency in this year’s field of Teletama Hai is GO TO FIRST, trained by Koichi Shintani. The 4YO colt by RULERSHIP has been running consistently at this class, finishing third over 1,600m at Hanshin on 10th March and finishing second over another 1,600m at Hanshin on 23rd March. I assess GO TO FIRST was an unlucky loser in his last start, as it was slowly-run race and the front runner never stopped. Though GO TO FIRST has never run at Tokyo Racecourse, he won the maiden at Chukyo, which is anti-clockwise track, by 1.25 lengths in July 2023, and I believe he can act well at anti-clockwise track at Tokyo. And I am sure 1,600m is his best trip.
My second choice is KITANO BRIDE. The 4YO filly by MAKFI won the allowance race for one time winners over the same course and distance as Teletama Hai on 24th June 2023, and then, finished third twice in the allowance race for two time winners. At that time, I thought she should graduate the class for two-time winners soon, however, she lost her form and has failed to finish within the first three in three starts in a row. Then, Tomoyasu Sakaguchi decided to give her a break to refresh. Although this is the first start for her since February, she has been trained well at Ritto Training Centre and I believe she is now ready to run her race.
VULCANO is a consistent runner at the class for two time winners. The 6YO horse by SPIELBERG won the allowance race at the class for one time winners over the same course and distance as Teletama Hai on 23rd April 2023. Since then, he started at the class for two time winners for five times and finished within the first four in all of them. I believe he is capable to gradate this class and am sure he can finish within first three here. VULCANO is my third choice.
My fourth choice is TAMIO STAR. The 5YO horse by SILVER STATE won the allowance race for one time winners at Nakayama on 31st March. Though this is the first time for him to compete at the class for two time winners. I am impressed with his performance last time out and I feel he is improving now.
BATTLE HARDEN, well-bred colt trained by Yoshito Yahagi, is my fifth choice.
SELECTIONS: 1. GO TO FIRST, 6. KITANO BRIDE, 2. VULCANO, 7. TAMIO STAR & 5. BATTLE HARDEN
4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 1. GO TO FIRST & 6. KITANO BRIDE
S1-5: Multiple – 2. PICK UP LINE & 9. LA LA EFFORT
S1-5 Vodka Cup
In fact, this is the 70th anniversary year for Japan Racing Association (JRA), which was established in 1954, and JRA conducted fans’ votes to select the most impressive winner of 24 G1 Races in annual calendar. As VODKA, who won Victoria Mile in 2009, is selected as the most impressive winner of Victoria Mile, under card on 12th May at Tokyo Racecourse is conducted as “Vodka Cup”. It is stakes race for two time winners at 1,600m dirt track at Tokyo.
My favourite is PICK UP LINE. The 4YO colt by LOGOTYPE started 14 races so far and half of them are races over 1,600m dirt course at Tokyo. And he finished within the first four in all those seven starts. PICK UP LINE is ultra-consistent over this course and distance. He finished third in the allowance race for two time winners on 21st April, and I understand it was a good effort. While the pace was strong, PICK UP LINE tracked a front runner from the second position and was overtaken by two horses who delivered the strongest challenge at closing stage. Vodka Cup is the second attempt for PICK UP LINE at the class for two time winners, and I believe he has a good chance to graduate this class on Sunday.
My second choice is LA LA EFFORT. While the 5YO horse by A SHIN HIKARI was beaten ninth in an allowance race for two time winners at Tokyo over 2,100m on 27th April, the distance was too long for him. As he won the allowance race for one time winners at 1,600m dirt track at Tokyo on 30th October 2022, it is obvious that the best trip for him is 1,600m. And he clocked 1 minute and 36.7 seconds at 1,600m dirt track at Tokyo when he finished fourth in allowance race for two time winners on 10th June 2023. And as there are several quick horses in the field, I suppose the pace should be strong and I expect LA LA EFFORT to use his strong late kick effectively.
My third choice is EIFER EPOCH. The 5YO horse by TOBY’S CORNER finished third at Nakayama over 1,800m on 16th December, which is the stakes race for two time winners, and he finished third again in the allowance race for two time winners at Nakayama on 6th January. If he re-produces those form on Sunday, I believe EIFER EPOCH should have every chance to finish within the first three in the Vodka Cup. Though he was beaten eighth in his last start at Nakayama on 30th March. He did not like the wet dirt track there.
My fourth choice is ROMEO BOSS. While the 4YO colt by STRONG RETURN was beaten sixth in the allowance race for two time winners at Tokyo on 3rd February, he jumped from wide draw and there was no pace, which did not suit for the closer. I believe he runs better on Sunday.
My fifth choice is MEISHO LANAKILA. Though this is first start on dirt for him, he is trained well at dirt track at Ritto Training Centre and should handle the dirt surface at Tokyo well.
SELECTIONS: 2. PICK UP LINE, 9. LA LA EFFORT, 5. EIFER EPOCH, 10. ROMEO BOSS & 6. MEISHO LANAKILA
5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 2. PICK UP LINE & 9. LA LA EFFORT
S1-6: Multiple – 10. NAMUR & 5. UMBRAIL
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-5:
Banker – 2. PICK UP LINE
Selections – 9. LA LA EFFORT, 5. EIFER EPOCH, 10. ROMEO BOSS & 6. MEISHO LANAKILA
S1-6:
Banker – 10. NAMUR
Selections – 5. UMBRAIL, 6. MASKED DIVA, 2. FIERCE PRIDE & 8. SOUND VIVACE
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 2. PICK UP LINE, 9. LA LA EFFORT & 5. EIFER EPOCH
S1-6: Multiple – 10. NAMUR, 5. UMBRAIL & 6. MASKED DIVA
S1-7: Multiple – 9. BAGRADAS, 13. PEPTIDE TIGER & 4. SATONO RUFFIAN
S1-6 Victoria Mile
NAMUR is obviously the best horse in the field of this year’s G1 Victoria Mile. While the mare by HARBINGER has been regarded very highly by the connections from “Day One”, she needed time to meet the expectation. She was rather leggy and fragile when she was 2YO and 3YO, and enough gap was required between races.
As like her sire, HARBINGER, who won the G1 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes by 11 lengths in July 2010, when he was 4YO, NAMUR matured physically and mentally during summer in 2023, when she was 4YO, and she looked like a different horse when she re-appeared in the field of G2 Fuji Stakes at Tokyo on 21st October, when her body weight was 454kg, which is 28kg heavier than she was in G1 Oka Sho in spring of 2022. NAMUR, who carries a lot more muscle on her hindquarters, won G2 Fuji Stakes in October and G1 Mile Championship in November, beating boys impressively. And she ran bravely in G1 Hong Kong Mile in December, finishing third, despite it came only three weeks after Mile Championship. NAMUR is now 5YO and she was narrowly beaten second to FACTEUR CHEVAL representing France in G1 Dubai Turf at Meydan in March.
Victoria Mile comes only six weeks after Dubai Turf and I know some punters are worried about her condition. NAMUR had an easy time at Shigaraki Branch of Northern Farm, since returning from Dubai, and came back to Tomokazu Takano’s barn in Ritto Training Centre on 2nd May. The report from Ritto has been very positive since then and I am convinced she is kept in top condition. If so, my first choice must be NAMUR.
My second choice is UMBRAIL by LORD KANALOA. She finished second in the G1 NHK Mile Cup over the same course and distance as Victoria Mile in May 2023, and I regard this from highly, as OBAMBURUMAI, third finisher in the NHK Mile Cup, won the Golden Eagle subsequently at Rosehill in November. Although she was beaten ninth in G3 Tokyo Shimbun Hai in February, it was the first start since NHK Mile Cup and I understand she needed the race. She finished second in G2 Hanshin Himba Stakes in April and it is obvious that her condition is improving.
MASKED DIVA, winner of G2 Hanshin Himba Stakes, is my third choice. While she was beaten sixth in G3 Tokyo Shimbun Hai in February, she was upset in the stalls and dwelt coming out of the stalls. She was fine in the stalls in G2 Hanshin Himba Stakes.
Godolphin’s FIERCE PRIDE is my fourth choice, her performance in G3 Turquoise Stakes in December was impressive and she is capable to finish within first four as she re-produces that form here.
My fifth choice is SOUND VIVACE, who finished fifth in G1 Victoria Mile twelve months ago.
SELECTIONS: 10. NAMUR, 5. UMBRAIL, 6. MASKED DIVA, 2. FIERCE PRIDE & 8. SOUND VIVACE
6TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 10. NAMUR & 5. UMBRAIL
S1-7: Multiple – 9. BAGRADAS & 13. PEPTIDE TIGER
S1-7 BS Eleven Sho
BS Eleven Sho is a stakes race for three time winners. It looks this is a quality field, because there are more than five horses who have been running consistently at this class in recent starts.
My favourite is BAGRADAS, 4YO colt by MAJESTIC WARRIOR. He won the allowance race over the same course and distance as BS Evelen Sho and graduated the class for two time winners on October 2023. Since then, BAGRADAS started in stakes at class for three winners for three times, and finished within the first three in all starts. Those form proves that BAGRADAS is competitive at this class. In fact, he was beaten five lengths by COPANO NICHOLSON in his last start and it might look unsatisfactory performance. However, it was first start for BAGRADAS since 27th January, and I understand he needed the run. BAGRADAS has been trained much better at Miho Training Centre since then, and it is encouraging news that Christophe Lemaire is booked for him. I reckon BAGRADAS graduates the class for three time winners on Sunday.
My second choice is PEPTIDE TIGER. The 4YO colt by DEE MAJESTY won the allowance race at Hanshin on 23rd December and graduated the class for two-time winners. Since then, he started in two stakes races at this class and finished within first three in both occasions. As PEPTIDE TIGER is based at Ritto Training Centre near Kyoto, he has run at Tokyo Racecourse only once. He finished second in the allowance race at Tokyo on 30th April 2023, beaten by neck. It is a good performance and I believe he acts well at dirt track at Tokyo Racecourse.
SATONO RUFFIAN is another consistent runner in this field, as the 5YO horse by ZENNO ROB ROY finished within the first four in the last four starts at the class for three time winners. And he won the stakes for two time winners at Tokyo on 7th May 2023, and I believe he likes the May meeting at Tokyo. SATONO RUFFIAN is my third choice.
TAMAMO DAIJOKKI is another consistent runner in this field, as the 6YO horse by HENNY HUGHES finished within the first four in last four starts at the class for three time winners. He has never run at Tokyo and I am slightly worried about it. However, he has won a race at Chukyo and finished second at Niigata, both of which are anti-clockwise tracks. I believe he can handle the anti-clockwise track at Tokyo.
PRUDENS is my fifth choice. The 6YO horse by DEEP BRILLANTE finished fourth over 1,400m for three time winners at Kyoto on 17th February and fourth again in his last start for three time winners at Hanshin on 2nd March. If he re-produces those form on Sunday, I believe PRUDENS should finish within the first five in this race.
SELECTIONS: 9. BAGRADAS, 13. PEPTIDE TIGER, 4. SATONO RUFFIAN, 11. TAMAMO DAIJOKKI & 5. PRUDENS
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