 Expert - Bill Esdaile | |
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| Bill Esdaile has worked in racing journalism in the United Kingdom for over 20 years. He began his working career at the Sporting Life back in 1995, and has since worked for the Racing Post, The Sportsman, and is currently racing editor of London-based City AM. He is a keen form student, and will bring a unique insight into the major European races. | |
Expert Column for Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes Day (S5) (Bill Esdaile)
S5-1 Chesham Stakes
Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore are the winning most trainer and jockey in this 1,400m Listed Chesham Stakes and their BEDTIME STORY has obvious claims. Her one run to date came when she smartly defeated a better fancied stablemate over 1,455m at Leopardstown. Being by super-sire FRANKEL and out of the G1 Nunthorpe Stakes winner MECCA’S ANGEL, this horse is bred to be special and could be hard to beat.
Another FRANKEL offspring to note here is AGE OF GOLD for Godolphin. Charlie Appleby’s colt showed he has plenty of speed himself by winning nicely on debut at Yarmouth over 1,203m. It remains to be seen whether he will stay this 1400m trip, but being by FRANKEL, you’d expect the further he goes the better he’ll be, and he’s one for the shortlist.
A horse who’s almost certain to like this distance is PENTLE BAY. George Boughey’s contender overcame a difficult trip on his debut at Leicester to win a 1,200m maiden in taking fashion. This is a big step up in class, but this NEW BAY colt is bred to appreciate the 1,400m trip and could be ready for a big showing.
The Chesham Stakes is not always won by the obvious market leaders, and Charlie Johnston’s EXPENSIVE ROSE could be up to springing a small surprise. She started off over 1,200m at Pontefract where she ran with credit to finish second, and then improved on her next start to win over 1,377m at Carlisle. This daughter of AUSTRALIA appreciated the increase in distance that day and could well thrive on the stiff Ascot track.
It’s also not unheard of for an unraced horse to win this race and HOT LIKE ME catches the eye. Richard Spencer is well able to train Royal Ascot juvenile winners as he showed with RAJASINGHE in the 2017 Coventry Stakes, and this daughter of GHAIYYATH should be suited to this trip on debut. Hollie Doyle is in the plate and might be about to cause a shock in the opening race on the final day of the Royal Meeting, just like HOLLOWAY BOY did first time up in 2022.
SELECTIONS: 14. BEDTIME STORY, 1. AGE OF GOLD, 11. PENTLE BAY, 15. EXPENSIVE ROSE & 16. HOT LIKE ME
1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S5-1: Multiple – 14. BEDTIME STORY & 1. AGE OF GOLD
S5-2: Multiple – 2. CONTINUOUS & 8. MIDDLE EARTH
S5-2 Hardwicke Stakes
Classic hero CONTINUOUS looks a class above his rivals in the G2 Hardwicke Stakes. He won the G1 St Leger Stakes at Doncaster over 2,905m last September, having previously shown he has the gears for this shorter 2,371m distance when successful in the G2 Great Voltigeur Stakes at York. His run in the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe over 2,400m at ParisLongchamp just over two weeks after his St Leger Stakes victory also confirmed he is very smart. Aidan O’Brien’s runner was a bit short of room in the closing stages behind unbeaten French star ACE IMPACT, so he did well to finish so close in Europe’s top middle-distance prize. This will be his first start since that run but it is a good starting point to his season.
MIDDLE EARTH was well beaten in the G1 St Leger Stakes over 2,905m at Doncaster but that race was run on unsuitably soft ground. He showed he is much better on a faster surface when bouncing back to land a 2,831m Listed race at Ascot in October. There was a lot to like about the way he swooped from the rear to make a winning return to action in a Newbury G3 over 2,400m last month. He is still improving and he looks the biggest danger to CONTINUOUS.
Top trainer William Haggas has a couple of live chances with former Royal Ascot handicap winners. His CANDLEFORD won the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes over this distance at this meeting two years ago. He looked better than ever when successful on his first run of the season in a Listed race over 2,400m at the Curragh four weeks ago. The fast ground is ideal for him.
Stablemate DESERT HERO – owned by The King and Queen – showed a superb finishing burst when just getting up to land the King George V Stakes over this course and distance at Royal Ascot last year. He went on to finish third behind CONTINUOUS in the G1 St Leger Stakes over 2,905m at Doncaster on his final run of last year. The race wasn’t run to suit when he was disappointing behind MIDDLE EARTH in a 2,400m G3 at Newbury last month.
ISLE OF JURA stepped up from handicaps to land a Goodwood Listed race over 1,979m last month. He has plenty potential tackling this distance for the first time.
SELECTIONS: 2. CONTINUOUS, 8. MIDDLE EARTH, 1. CANDLEFORD, 4. DESERT HERO & 7. ISLE OF JURA
2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S5-2: Multiple – 2. CONTINUOUS & 8. MIDDLE EARTH
S5-3: Multiple – 8. SHARTASH & 10. THE WIZARD OF EYE
1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S5-2:
Banker – 2. CONTINUOUS
Selections – 8. MIDDLE EARTH, 1. CANDLEFORD, 4. DESERT HERO & 7. ISLE OF JURA
S5-3:
Banker – 8. SHARTASH
Selections – 10. THE WIZARD OF EYE, 5. MILL STREAM, 6. MITBAAHY & 3. KHAADEM
S5-3 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes
The last two runnings of this 1,200m G1 sprint have been won by big outsiders and with no superstars in the line-up it looks a very open race again.
SHARTASH was a useful 2YO in 2022, winning the G2 Railway Stakes over 1,200m at the Curragh and being placed at G1 level. He lost his way last season but has been revitalized by being gelded after a switch to Archie Watson’s stable, winning his two races this season. The latest of those came in a Listed race over 1,393m at Haydock last month. Ultimately, he only won narrowly after being well in command 200m out but he showed so much speed this drop back to a stiff 1,200m looks in his favour.
THE WIZARD OF EYE has raced over a variety of distances in his career but produced one of his best ever performances on his first run for the Charlie Fellowes stable when flashing home to win the Victoria Cup over 1,400m, traditionally one of the most competitive handicaps of the season, at Ascot last month. The booking of Ryan Moore is eye-catching and there is stable confidence that THE WIZARD OF EYE’s proven track ability will make him competitive up in grade and down in distance.
MILL STREAM made positive progress last year and has returned better than ever this season, improving from a seasonal debut second to WASHINGTON HEIGHTS in the G3 Abernant Stakes at Newmarket over 1,200m in April to beat that opponent as well as SHOULDVEBEENARING, ART POWER and SWINGALONG in the G2 Duke of York Stakes at York over 1,200m. The way MILL STREAM dug deep in the final few strides bodes well for this stiffer Ascot track.
With the ground looking like it will be too firm for ART POWER and KINROSS, who is at his best over 1400m, MITBAAHY, who pounced late to land the G2 Greenlands Stakes over 1,200m at the Curragh last month, comes into consideration. That form looks sound after runner-up REGIONAL finished second in the G1 King Charles III Stakes over 1,000m at this meeting on Tuesday. Jockey Jamie Spencer is renowned for riding Ascot’s straight course well.
Last year’s winner KHAADEM, who also finished fourth in 2020, now ridden by Oisin Murphy, cannot be ruled out.
SELECTIONS: 8. SHARTASH, 10. THE WIZARD OF EYE, 5. MILL STREAM, 6. MITBAAHY & 3. KHAADEM
3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S5-3: Multiple – 8. SHARTASH & 10. THE WIZARD OF EYE
S5-4: Multiple – 14. RIVER TIBER & 1. HAATEM
S5-4 Jersey Stakes
The G3 Jersey Stakes looks an interesting race, with the two frontrunners miles ahead in the market.
Aidan O’Brien’s RIVER TIBER looks a worthy favourite, having found the frame in his past three runs in G1 company, so a step back down two grades could pay dividends. Most recently he finished an impressive third, 1.5 lengths behind multiple G1 winner ROSALLION, in the G1 Irish 2000 Guineas over 1,600m at the Curragh last month, proving he is a horse with serious ability. Dropping back in trip to 1,400m could see him to even better effect in what looks an easier field.
HAATEM was entered in the St James’s Palace Stakes earlier this week, but Richard Hannon seems to think this is a better fit for his colt. Similarly to the favourite, this is another G1 contender who’s been dropped in grade. He and came home in front of RIVER TIBER in the G1 Irish 2000 Guineas over 1,600m last time out but gives him 3lbs here as a result.
EBEN SHADDAD is John & Thady Gosden’s sole runner here. His most notable form lines of late have been a second to HAATEM in the G3 Craven Stakes over 1,600m at Newmarket in April and then a seventh in the G1 Poule d’Essai des Poulains over 1,600m last time out, where he was beaten only two lengths. That said, he’s failed to pick up a win since his debut in a Class 4 novice over 1,200m and will need to bring his A-game first time around Ascot to be in with a shout.
NEVER SO BRAVE heads up proceedings for veteran trainer Sir Michael Stoute, who last won this race back in 2018. This is a colt who has been mightily impressive so far this season, with two wins from two on varying ground. Should the surface stay firm, his comfortable win in a handicap around Chester over 1,515m could be the right preparation for this contest.
NATIVE AMERICAN is one at a slightly bigger price who could have a chance. Second in the Listed Surrey Stakes over 1,403m by a short-head last month at Epsom, showed his potential over this distance. Richard Fahey has trained winners of this race and with the Wathnan Racing-owned horses in top-form, he could be one to look out for.
SELECTIONS: 14. RIVER TIBER, 1. HAATEM, 5. EBEN SHADDAD, 12. NEVER SO BRAVE & 11. NATIVE AMERICAN
4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S5-4: Multiple – 14. RIVER TIBER & 1. HAATEM
S5-5: Multiple – 5. HARRY THREE & 16. ALBASHEER
2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S5-4:
Banker – 14. RIVER TIBER
Selections – 1. HAATEM, 5. EBEN SHADDAD, 12. NEVER SO BRAVE & 11. NATIVE AMERICAN
S5-5:
Banker – 5. HARRY THREE
Selections – 16. ALBASHEER, 8. APOLLO ONE, 10. DARK TROOPER & 9. UNEQUAL LOVE
S5-5 Wokingham Stakes
Only one favourite in last 10 years has won this 1,200m cavalry charge down the straight course, and nine of the last 10 winners have emerged from towards the top of the handicap.
One that ticks all the right boxes is HARRY THREE, for whom Clive Cox has booked Ryan Moore to ride. HARRY THREE enjoyed a lucrative summer two seasons ago, rattling off three wins in a row over this 1,200m. He captured a fast ground handicap at Newmarket and followed up at York before taking his form up another notch when landing a 1,200m Listed race at Deauville. Not disgraced in sixth place when pitched into the G1 Sprint Cup Stakes over 1,200m at Haydock, HARRY THREE was subsequently gelded. However, after a 631-day absence through injury, he returned at Salisbury over 1,200m last month, finishing an eye-catching fourth in Listed company. He’ll love the ground and is well worth close attention.
ALBASHEER, who lost all chance in last year’s race with a slow start, is another with classy form. He was runner-up in the G2 Champagne Stakes over 1,400m at Doncaster as a 2YO, and after being gelded he won a competitive 1,200m handicap on fast ground at York. Hollie Doyle knows ALBASHEER well, and the 6YO, impressive when winning twice on the all-weather over 1,000 and 1,200m at Newcastle earlier in the year, looks primed for this race.
DARK TROOPER had a terrific 2023 for Ed Walker, winning six races between 1,200m and 1,400m, including two on fast ground over this course. He looked to be bordering on being a Group horse but was bought for a big sum to be switched to France last autumn. Though disappointing in Qatar earlier in the year, DARK TROOPER, who can go on any ground, recaptured last season’s brilliance when bolting up for his new connections at Saint-Cloud over 1,200m last month.
APOLLO ONE, runner-up in this race last year, is a grand sprinter but always seems to find one too good in these big handicaps. He has finished second at Epsom, Goodwood and Newmarket in the last 12 months.
UNEQUAL LOVE is another money-spinner, who has won five races over 1,200m to 1,400m in the last year. She thrived physically through the winter and but for a slow start she might have made the frame in a G2 race at the Curragh over 1,200m last time.
SELECTIONS: 5. HARRY THREE, 16. ALBASHEER, 8. APOLLO ONE, 10. DARK TROOPER & 9. UNEQUAL LOVE
5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S5-5: Multiple – 5. HARRY THREE & 16. ALBASHEER
S5-6: Multiple – 8. HAND OF GOD & 10. APPROVAL
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S5-5: Multiple – 5. HARRY THREE, 16. ALBASHEER & 8. APOLLO ONE
S5-6: Multiple – 8. HAND OF GOD, 10. APPROVAL & 13. OLD FAITHFUL
S5-7: Multiple – 13. QUEENSTOWN, 8. UXMAL & 5. POSTILEO
S5-6 Golden Gates Stakes
HAND OF GOD looks set to make a bold bid in his attempt to secure a third win this season in the Golden Gates Stakes over 1,993m at Royal Ascot. After opening his account in a 1,600m maiden on his final start last season, the Harry Charlton-trained 3YO resumed where he left off with a front running victory in a 1,600m handicap at Sandown, which he only received a small rise in the weights for. This will be the first time that the son of CHURCHILL has run over 2,000m, but judging by his last run the step up in distance is likely to bring about further improvement.
APPROVAL was well beaten on his only start at two, however since being gelded after that run he has proven a model of consistency in three starts this year. After finishing second in two 1,729m novice contests on the all-weather at Wolverhampton the William Haggas-trained gelding built on those efforts with an impressive win on his first attempt over 2,000m in a novice event back on turf at Windsor. The way he finished that day suggests the stiff 2,000m here on similar conditions will pose no problems to the son of LE HAVRE in his bid to follow up that success.
The closest Aidan O’Brien has come to winning the race was with SUN KING, who finished third in 2022, but the Ballydoyle trainer looks to have a lively contender in OLD FAITHFUL. Since being stepped up beyond 1,600m the son of SIYOUNI has looked a different character after winning a 2,076m contest at Naas before following up in a 2,036m handicap at Navan. Having appeared to need every bit of the trip last time out this race looks an ideal test for him.
PORTSMOUTH has been in sparkling form this season after winning a 1,703m handicap at Epsom on his return before finishing second in two handicaps over 1,979m and 2,015m. Both of his last two races were run with soft in the going description and a return to quicker conditions could help him see out the 1,993m trip much better.
ARABIC LEGEND is yet to hit the same heights since joining Karl Burke from Andrew Balding, however a drop in grade, and trip, makes him of interest. After finishing fourth in the Listed Blue Riband Trial over 2,015m at Epsom on his stable debut he appeared to fail to see out the 2,321m in the Listed Lingfield Derby Trial Stakes. On that basis dropping back in trip for his handicap debut looks a positive move.
SELECTIONS: 8. HAND OF GOD, 10. APPROVAL, 13. OLD FAITHFUL, 16. PORTSMOUTH & 3. ARABIC LEGEND
6TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S5-6: Multiple – 8. HAND OF GOD & 10. APPROVAL
S5-7: Multiple – 13. QUEENSTOWN & 8. UXMAL
S5-7 Queen Alexandra Stakes
The Queen Alexandra Stakes is the final race of Royal Ascot and also the longest, run over a marathon trip of 4,330m.
Aidan O’Brien has a strong contender here in QUEENSTOWN. He has only won a maiden to date, when successful over 2,400m at the Curragh last season, but in three starts this season he has shown smart form. A third on reappearance over an inadequate 2,089m at Naas was followed by two seconds, when chasing home KYPRIOS in the Listed Vintage Crop Stakes and again in the G3 Saval Beg Levmoss Stakes, both over 2,800m. On both occasions he has been seen staying on well at the finish and while this is a significant step up in trip, he looks set to relish it. Considering KYPRIOS is possibly the best stayer, QUEENSTOWN could well be better than this opposition.
It was the Joseph O’Brien yard that took this race 12 months ago, winning with DAWN RISING, who then went on to run well in the G3 Irish St Leger Trial Stakes over 2,800m and the G1 Irish St. Leger. He hasn’t returned in the same form this season though and he might struggle to follow up last year’s win.
Instead, Joseph O’Brien could have a better chance with UXMAL. This son of GALILEO has been highly consistent in seven career starts to date, winning twice and placing three times. A seven-length maiden win at Tramore last September was followed by a close second in the Listed Prix Scaramouche over 2,800m at Saint-Cloud, and he returned this season with a comfortable success over 2,840m at Killarney. This trip shouldn’t prove a problem and with continued improvement he can play a part in the finish.
POSTILEO represents top dual purpose trainer Emmet Mullins. He won four times on the Flat over trips ranging from 2,400m to 2,900m when trained in the UK, and after two runs over hurdles in March, he reverted to the Flat with a good run to finish fourth in the Listed Vintage Crop Stakes over 2,800m behind QUEENSTOWN at Navan. That run should have sharpened him up and he may be able to get closer to that rival now.
GRAND PROVIDENCE has been prepped for this race and, while she has a bit to find with some better rated rivals, she has shown a liking for marathon trips, having won over 3,600m, and should go well on the ground.
SELECTIONS: 13. QUEENSTOWN, 8. UXMAL, 5. POSTILEO, 2. DAWN RISING & 14. GRAND PROVIDENCE
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