Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Expert Column for Shuka Sho (S1-1) (Naohiro Goda)

S1-1     Shuka Sho

The 29th running of G1 Shuka Sho, final leg of Japanese Triple Tiara for 3YO fillies, features rematch between CERVINIA and STELLENBOSCH, first and second finisher in G1 Yushin Himba (Japanese Oaks), which is the second leg of Triple Tiara.

CERVINIA started three time and won two of them when she was 2YO, including the G3 Artemis Stakes last year. When CERVINIA was beaten 13th in G1 Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas), first leg of Triple Tiara at Hanshin on 7th April, there were some excuses. She might not be 100% fit, as it was first start for her since October 2023, widest draw might cost her, and she could not have a clear run on homestretch. Six weeks later, CERVINIA bounced back dramatically and won G1 Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks) by half a length. STELLENBOSCH started four times when she was 2YO, she won two of them, and finished second twice including G1 Hanshin Juvenile Fillies last year. She won G1 Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) impressively and was narrowly beaten by CERVINIA in G1 Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks).

I select STELLENBOSCH as my favorite. She is the most consistent runner in this year’s 3YO fillies, as she has never finished below third place. And it is the most important factor that she lost her shoe of off-hind leg in Japanese Oaks. It must cost her and I think she could have won Japanese Oaks, if she didn’t lose the shoe.

And 2,400m, distance of Japanese Oaks, was the most suitable for CERVINIA, who is by HARBINGER, winner of G1 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot, out of CECCHINO, who finished second in G1 Japanese Oaks. I assess 2,000 meters, distance of Shuka Sho, is the most suitable for STELLENBOSCH and she is able to turn the table on coming Sunday. CERVINIA is my second choice.

My third choice is MI ANHELO, as I regard her form in G2 Shion Stakes, which was conducted on opening day of autumn meeting at Nakayama, highly. The track on the day of Shion Stakes was very quick and it was heaven for front runners and runners who tracked leaders closely. Under such circumstances, MI ANHELO dwelt coming out of stalls and came from far behind to finish second, beaten by neck. The track at Kyoto on the day of Shuka Sho should not be so quick as it was at Nakayama on the day of Shion Stakes, and I believe MI ANHELO has a good chance to finish within first three.

My fourth choice is QUEEN’S WALK. When she won G3 Daily Hai Queen Cup at Tokyo in February, I thought she was one of the leading contenders for G1 Oka Sho (Japanese 1000 Guineas) and G1 Yushun Himba (Japanese Oaks), therefore, her performance in those two races were disappointing for me. However, she won G2 Rose Stakes at Kyoto on 15th September impressively and I include her in the list of my selections afresh.

CHRISTMAS PARADE, winner of G2 Shion Stakes, is my fifth choice.

SELECTIONS: 14. STELLENBOSCH, 5. CERVINIA, 2. MI ANHELO, 3. QUEEN’S WALK & 13. CHRISTMAS PARADE

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