Expert - Brett Davis

Brett Davis was introduced to Australian Racing by his father back in the early 1980’s when his family became involved in formulating “Thoroughbred Racing Syndications”. Brett worked from 1995 as a Professional Form Analysts and Race Broadcaster with an array of companies throughout most parts of the Australia Racing industry. He currently resides in Adelaide, his hometown in Australia, where he is Chief Thoroughbred Race Caller and Form Analyst for Tabcorp / SkyChannel / RadioTAB. Brett Davis also spent 2 years with the Singapore Turf Club and 13 Racing Seasons with the Hong Kong Jockey Club between 2006 to 2019 as a leading Form Analyst / Race Caller and was the HKJC Chief Race Caller from 2014, calling the last 5 Hong Kong International (Turf World Championships) race meetings and over 50 G1 races. Brett has immense passion for Australian Racing both personally and professionally. With his diverse knowledge and long standing industry relations he’s a valuable asset to racing and it’s enthusiasts.

Expert Column for Victoria Derby Day (S1) (Brett Davis)

 

S1-1     Carbine Club Stakes

 

FEROCE certainly appreciated the step up to 1,600m in the G1 Caulfield Guineas and in the end nearly won the coveted prize. That effort seriously raised his profile, along with his handicap rating, and pencils him in as the horse to beat. However, the mile at Caulfield is a completely different task to a 1,600m race at Flemington, as it allows the hard closers to gradually build momentum. He’ll be up on speed and positioned to win but the chasers may have a final say.

 

STYLISH SECRET won the Victoria Derby preview over 1,800m with a solid drive all the way down to the line. Connections have now opted to steer away from the G1 classic and focus on an easier contest at G3 level, back in trip. With a solid base of residual fitness now securely under his belt he’s the runner of great interest to consider. Track conditions are expected to be similar to what’s he’s previously enjoyed and that makes him a worthy opponent.

 

AELIANA won her maiden at a mid-week meeting at Kensington in August before progressing to a G3 victory last start. Her turn of foot and mature track sense were the encouraging signs when she powered to the line with plenty in the tank. There’s a lot for her to absorb as she ventures to Melbourne for the first time and she’d prefer some sting out the track, but she certainly has the goods to stand up and fiercely compete.

 

ACTA NON VERBA is a handsome looking son of BLUE POINT who won his maiden at Cranbourne in good style. He then met the inform TREASURETHE MOMENT at Caulfield last start but nonetheless displayed fight to the line. He likes to lead, and from the low draw that’ll be the plan once again today. He’s a runner with upside and could certainly be dangerous racing on speed.

 

CANARA has enjoyed her fair share of race experience and is ready to peak at her fourth run back from a spell. She’s desperately looking for the longer distance of 1,600m and her form around AELIANA and GOOD SORT reads strong. Like the majority of these 3YO’s competing there’s certainly better to come so in an open house affair, she a chance.

 

SELECTIONS: 1. FEROCE, 2. STYLISH SECRET, 6. AELIANA, 3. ACTA NON VERBA & 7. CANARA

 

1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-1: Multiple – 1. FEROCE & 2. STYLISH SECRET
S1-2: Multiple – 14. CHEWING GUM & 9. GOOD SORT

 

S1-2     The Vanity

 

CHEWING GUM performed nicely at her two opening runs where she won first up at Geelong before placing at Sandown. However, it was her next start at Caulfield which caught the eye when she rocketed home from a long way back. It’s her first trip to Flemington, and the gate could become tricky if she’s looking for a clear passage, but her recently exposed turn of foot suggested she might just be something special.

 

GOOD SORT was the unlucky runner in the G3 Reginald Allen Quality over 1,400m when finishing third to AELIANA. She began poorly, was buffeted around during the run whilst doing lots wrong, but importantly found the line hard despite the lack of a clear run. She’s super talented with greater achievements to come but at the same time slightly risky. Nevertheless, is she copes well with the occasion then she’ll probably wins.

 

TOO DARN LIZZIE holds all the aces following an all the way win in the G2 Thousand Guineas Prelude at Caulfield. That win stands her above all opposition on ratings but she’s since been penalised with additional weight. The draw isn’t a great concern because she’ll roll forward with high cruising speed, and if given any cheap sectionals can be extremely difficult to catch.

 

ZEITUNG did all the chasing behind TOO DARN LIZZIE recently at Caulfield and was far from disgraced in defeat. She’s bred to be a sprinter, so the 1,400m is a query, but she’s entitled to her opportunity against some of the best. The low gate to leave from is her advantage and if she holds her rhythm for the duration then she runs a strong race.

 

DOMINETTA ran an excellent race when finishing third in the G3 Reginald Allen Quality at Randwick last start and is drawn ideally in gate seven. It’s an open contest with many realistic chances so positioning well from the 1,400m dispatch point is important. She should end up in the first half, with room to manoeuvre when they turn for home, and from there it’ll be hers to grab.

 

SELECTIONS: 14. CHEWING GUM, 9. GOOD SORT, 1. TOO DARN LIZZIE, 5. ZEITUNG & 6. DOMINETTA

 

2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-2: Multiple – 14. CHEWING GUM & 9. GOOD SORT
S1-3: Multiple – 6. SCHWARZ & 3. SPACEWALK

 

S1-3     Rising Fast Stakes

 

SCHWARZ is a high calibre and lightly raced potential stallion who won the listed Springtime Stakes over 1,400m at Flemington this time last year. He was then solid through the autumn before a hearty win at Randwick in the G2 Missile Stakes in August. He carries plenty of residual fitness and the two trials in Sydney in the lead up suggest he’s right to go.
Therefore, with plenty of natural speed at his disposal it’s anticipated he’ll deliver a very good show.

 

SPACEWALK was in desperate need of the run first up at Caulfield but at the end finished satisfactorily and wasn’t faraway. He’s nicely suited by a transfer to Flemington second up and is currently undefeated over this course and trip. With Jamie Kah recently voicing she’s happy with the days book of rides it’s difficult to envisage them out of the finish, particularly from the high desired gate.

 

REY MAGNERIO has returned in terrific order this campaign and his form line references as the hardest to topple. He’ll appreciate the firmer ground underfoot and is ready to elevate up to the 1,200m so the end result should be a bold and competitive run. Conversely, a low draw when pounding down the famous Flemington straight can often be a disadvantage, which maybe an area of concern.

 

IT’SOURTIME is a previous winner at this level and simply adores this particular track and distance at Flemington. He was held up for clear running last start in the listed Paris Lane Stakes after settling too far back. He’s in the second half of his career which may challenge him in the fight for the win, but I’d feel rather concern regarding exotics if I decided to leave him out.

 

PRESS DOWN is at a career high peak following a win first up in the listed W H Wylie Handicap in Morphettville. He’s been kept fresh in the interim but by all reports is ready to rumble and the 1,200m journey is no concern. His recent association with rider Neil Farley is almost faultless at this point, but a low draw is likely to challenge both horse and rider in their hunt for the major prize.

 

SELECTIONS: 6. SCHWARZ, 3. SPACEWALK, 11. REY MAGNERIO, 5. IT’SOURTIME & 8. PRESS DOWN

 

3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-3: Multiple – 6. SCHWARZ & 3. SPACEWALK
S1-4: Multiple – 2. ANOTHER WIL & 5. JIMMYSSTAR

 

S1-4     The Damien Oliver

 

ANOTHER WIL has been touted a G1 winner in the making but was completely outclassed in the G1 Toorak Handicap. No doubt, the tactics of the winner ANTINO caught many off guard, so he’s therefore entitled to some leeway, and in time worthy of another G1 attempt. Back in trip to 1,400m here and a slightly easier assignment of G2 means he’ll start the race favourite and end up the major player and horse they all must defeat.

 

JIMMYSTAR is a high-class conveyance that’s never raced better which is evident by his two dazzling victories this time in. He hasn’t been privy to a great deal of Flemington experience in the past, but he’ll adore the expected firmness in the track.
He’s yet to win anything stronger than listed so there are hurdles still to scale, but the way he’s been moving this campaign it’s only a matter of time.

 

MIGHTY ULYSSES won the G3 Moonga Stakes easily when fresh which is encouraging considering he’s yet to be defeated second up. He generally gives away a start and therefore requires a hot speed to close but that’s precisely what he got first up. He’s never seen Flemington but has coped well with travel in the past and by all reports has trained on well.

 

NICOLINI VITO has been a fantastic money spinner over a long period and his mere presence should be respected. Although he may lack the class of the more favoured runners in the market, he’s a competitive and strong hearted beast that arrives rock hard fit. He’ll enjoy the good surface conditions and has multiple winning experiences over this exact course and trip.

 

TAMMERLANE has been a solid contributor throughout his lengthy career and often races best when fresh. He can handle all surface conditions, has won races over multiple distance and James McDonald now takes the ride. His two lead up barrier trials at Hawkesbury have portrayed him in a good light so he can be included in exotics.

 

SELECTIONS: 2. ANOTHER WIL, 5. JIMMYSSTAR, 1. MIGHTY ULYSSES, 7. NICOLINI VITO & 3. TAMERLANE

 

4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 2. ANOTHER WIL & 5. JIMMYSSTAR
S1-5: Multiple – 2. TREASURETHE MOMENT & 5. POWERS OF OPAL

 

S1-5     HKJC World Pool Wakeful Stakes

 

TREASURETHE MOMENT has built up a formidable score card from just the five outings to this point and is yet to finish further back than second. Raced by the expanding stable and buying power of Yu Long Investments you can guarantee she’s there to win. She enjoys racing handy to the pace and I’d expect that again from the ideal gate. The form of runners finishing alongside her recently only grows in strength which further enhances her prospects.

 

POWERS OF OPAL broke her maiden at Hawkesbury in mid-October with a demolition of the opposition over 1,600m. She’d previously finished fourth in the G1 Flight Stakes at Randwick after leading for a large portion of the event. She has an abundance of natural talent and the Gp1 VRC Oaks is her ultimate goal, but it’s highly anticipated she’ll take out this lead event up along the way.

 

INEVITABLE TRUTH was held up for a portion of the home stretch in a 3YO fillies race at Flemington where she ultimately finished second behind HURRY CURRY. She followed that up with a delightful effort in the G3 Ethereal Stakes behind TOO DARN DISCREET, which is arguably the strongest form line around. With Joao Moreira atop and a race over this distance already consumed she’s got big ticks alongside her name.

 

JENNI’S MEADOW chased home a smart one in TOO DARN DISCREET in the recent G3 Ethereal Stakes over 2,000m. That form line reads as strong as any contesting this event and the fact it was over today’s journey of 2,000m is a plus. She’s had more race experience than the majority competing and arrives with a deep foundation of strength. She’ll have to raise the bar to another level if she’s to be there at the end, but an excellent preparation creates her chance.

 

TALISAY has form around GOLDRUSH GURU who is given a win/place chance in the feature of the day, the G1 VRC Derby. The wide barrier won’t bother her as she’ll be looking to relax whilst settling further back in the field. Her overall depth of class shall be rightfully tested but she can find under pressure and possess a good turn of foot.

 

SELECTIONS: 2. TREASURETHE MOMENT, 5. POWERS OF OPAL, 10. INEVITABLE TRUTH, 1. JENNI’S MEADOW & 3. TALISAY

 

5TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 2. TREASURETHE MOMENT & 5. POWERS OF OPAL
S1-6: Multiple – 1. GROWING EMPIRE & 14. BELLATRIX STAR

 

S1-6     Coolmore Stud Stakes (Ascot Vale Stakes)

 

GROWING EMPIRE has been touted as the next super star sprinter of the Australian turf which is a fair and justified quote. His first attempt at the highest level was in the G1 Manikato Stakes where he raced hard on speed before being vulnerable to a superior turn of foot. He then travelled to Sydney and took on the greatest sprinters in the land in the G1 TAB Everest over 1,200m at weight for age. A gallant third placing behind BELLA NIPOTINA and GIGA KICK highlighted his outstanding potential and confirms he’s the number one horse to beat.

 

BELLATRIX STAR has been a revelation this spring with wins at listed, G3 and G2 level her past three starts. However, the bar shall well and truly be raised this time around as she steps up to G1 company for the first time. She’ll settle back and look for cover, whilst conserving energy, before cutting loose with her remarkable finishing speed. A repeat of the last run will see her go close, then she won’t be far off the mark.

 

TRAFFIC WARDEN was well punted to win the G1 The Everest before a mishap in the starting gates saw him scratched. Many a good judge felt he’d provide GROWING EMPIRE with a genuine challenge that day, but another opportunity now awaits. His runner-up finish in the G1 GOLDEN ROSE behind BROADSIDING over 1,400m is arguably the best 3YO form going around, so if GROWING EMPIRE and company don’t bring their A game then he may just run past then when it counts.

 

SWITZERLAND was all the rage as a 2YO winning his first three start but an average performance in the G1 Golden Slipper at Rosehill Gardens saw him sent to the paddock to spell. Fast forward six months, and he was back to feeling well with a dominant win in the G2 Roman Consul Stakes second up. It’s his first trip to Melbourne, and he’d prefer a softish track, but he possesses to bigger engine to even contemplate leaving him out.

 

FIRST SETTLER has only tasted defeat on one occasion to this point and that occurred in the Listed race over 1,100m. He gave GROWING EMPIRE to bigger start on that occasion down the Flemington straight but a rise up to 1,200m here suits. He’s one of many high class and progressives individuals competing in this prestigious event and must be give his chance, but he’ll need the race to pan out his way if he’s to crunch hard at the end.

 

SELECTIONS: 1. GROWING EMPIRE, 14. BELLATRIX STAR, 3. TRAFFIC WARDEN, 5. SWITZERLAND & 6. FIRST SETTLER

 

6TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-6: Multiple – 1. GROWING EMPIRE & 14. BELLATRIX STAR
S1-7: Multiple – 8. KING OF THUNDER & 1. EL CASTELLO

 

1ST DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-6:   
Banker – 1. GROWING EMPIRE
Selections – 14. BELLATRIX STAR, 3. TRAFFIC WARDEN, 5. SWITZERLAND & 6. FIRST SETTLER
S1-7:   
Banker – 8. KING OF THUNDER
Selections – 1. EL CASTELLO, 2. RED ACES, 5. SAINT EMILION & 4. GOLDRUSH GURU

 

S1-7     Victoria Derby

 

KING OF THUNDER was sent to Melbourne earlier than his fellow Sydney sider EL CASTELLO and performed admirably in the G3 Moonee Valley Vase. With a taste of the race changing direction and vital experience gained from a trip away he’s effectively one step ahead. The big spacious track at Flemington shall be largely beneficial to this big striding son of TIVACI, and it’s highly anticipated he’ll thrive on the rise in trip. Nevertheless, he must learn to switch off in the run, if he does, he’s a massive chance of taking the coveted prize.

 

EL CASTELLO lines up as the highest rated runner in this year’s G1 Victoria Derby following a hard fought win in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes at Randwick. That makes him the horse to defeat on ratings, but there are many different variables that potentially stand in his way. It’s his first trip away from home, his first attempt going the anticlockwise direction and importantly his first attempt at famous Flemington over 2,500m.

 

RED ACES had all favours when winning the G2 Moonee Valley Vase, but he’ll be the recipient of that same scenario again. He’s bred to cover the 2,500m with ease and has enjoyed the perfect preparation leading in, with a lovely barrier draw giving him everything he needs. Jamie Mott knows him well, so everything appears ready to go, however, the query maybe his resistance to the closing power of the oppositional attack.

 

SAINT EMILION won a maiden at Goulburn over 1,600m third up this preparation before winning the Listed Geelong Classic over 2,200m. He gave the opposition a start and a beating that afternoon with a visually electrifying display. How he copes with a G1 blue ribbon event at Flemington at his next start is a fascinating unanswered question, but he’s armed with x-factor potential and therefore best kept safe.

 

GOLDRUSH GURU is the best middle distance 3YO from South Australia and a comprehensive winner of the Listed Hill Smith Stakes at Morphettville. That particular event has produced many a sound performance going into this classic contest, and even thrown out an explosive winner. He’s a smashing good type with everything in the right spot and the trainer, along with connections, are proven at the 2,500m.

 

SELECTIONS: 8. KING OF THUNDER, 1. EL CASTELLO, 2. RED ACES, 5. SAINT EMILION & 4. GOLDRUSH GURU

 

7TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-7: Multiple – 8. KING OF THUNDER & 1. EL CASTELLO
S1-8: Multiple – 2. AMELIA’S JEWEL & 1. ATISHU

 

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-7: Multiple – 8. KING OF THUNDER, 1. EL CASTELLO & 2. RED ACES
S1-8: Multiple – 2. AMELIA’S JEWEL, 1. ATISHU & 13. PLENTY OF AMMO
S1-9: Multiple – 3. SANS DOUTE, 15. PHARARI & 19. PONDALOWIE

 

S1-8     Empire Rose Stakes

 

AMELIA’S JEWEL was transferred to the powerful Annabel Neasham & Rob Archibald stable mid-year and has returned with a spring in her step. Her close up second placings in the G2 Tramway and G2 Gold Pendant conditioned her perfectly for a crack at the G1 King Charles III Stakes last start. We know she’s made of the right stuff, so I’d be surprised if she wasn’t amongst the finish particularly against her own sex.

 

ATISHU slightly has the score on the board over her fellow gals in the ratings despite dropping a solitary point last start. It was an honourable third in the G1 Might And Power but importantly a great perfect lead up to today’s assignment. There’s plenty in her favour whichever way you look and despite the many talented opponents she’ll have to overcome, she definitely hard to defeat.

 

PLENTY OF AMMO is another highly talented mare on the rise and fully deserved of her attempt at the big smoke. She’s undefeated over 1,600m, shall relish the firm conditions underfoot and importantly has enjoyed experience on this big wide spacious track. The form around both her runs this campaign is reading well so she cannot be denied her chance.

 

ZARDOZI was involved in a fascinating battle against LAND LEGEND in the G1 Metropolitan in Sydney a month ago but ultimately came off second best. She followed up with a courageous fourth placing in the G1 Caulfield Cup where the winner basically led throughout. Last year’s G1 VRC Oaks winner is right now racing at her peak so I’d be extremely weary of her presence despite the expected firmness in the track.

 

LEKVARTE is a quality mare with a fantastic win strike rate and blessed with a high range turn of foot. She hasn’t done a great deal of racing over the past twelve months which was evident by her performance in the G2 Gold Pendant. However, she put that concern to bed quickly with a scintillating win from last to first win in the G3 Angst Stakes last start. With that win under her belt, she’s perfectly ready to take on a tough task.

 

SELECTIONS: 2. AMELIA’S JEWEL, 1. ATISHU, 13. PLENTY OF AMMO, 5. ZARDOZI & 8. LEKVARTE

 

8TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):
S1-8: Multiple – 2. AMELIA’S JEWEL & 1. ATISHU
S1-9: Multiple – 3. SANS DOUTE & 15. PHARARI

 

2ND DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-8:   
Banker – 2. AMELIA’S JEWEL
Selections – 1. ATISHU, 13. PLENTY OF AMMO, 5. ZARDOZI & 8. LEKVARTE
S1-9:   
Banker – 3. SANS DOUTE
Selections – 15. PHARARI, 19. PONDALOWIE, 7. INFANCY & 9. KIN

 

S1-9     Furphy Sprint (Begonia Belle Stakes)

 

SANS DOUTE has her hoof on the til of victory and it’s only a matter of time before she goes bang. Her lead up run in the G2 Caulfield Sprint was perfect for today’s assignment and this appears a race she can win. James McDonald now jumps aboard which further inflates confidence and she’s undefeated over this course and trip.

 

PHARARI is well named, and we’ll certainly get to see how fast she can go today. There’s a big wrap on her potential and she’s draw perfectly out wide for this initial run down the Flemington straight. It’ll be a whole new set of surroundings and conditions that she’ll need to successfully absorb, but she’s very much expected to stand up.

 

PONDALOWIE has further improved from her previous campaign and is a runner of interest who’s drawn the outside gate. She’s a previous winner here over this course and trip in a lower grade and found the line hard last start. How the listed Alinghi Stakes form holds up is still to be assessed but I’m given her the opportunity to measure up.

 

INFANCY hasn’t been at her best for some time but the signs from her recently tell us she’s on the way. A trip away from Sydney might be just what she needs to rejuvenate her spirit and with Hugh Bowman to ride, I’m in. She closed in hard in a recent Bm94 at Randwick after settling well back and I’m tipping she’ll be suited to the straight.

 

KIN had solid form around SANS DOUTE and REY MAGNERIO last preparation and on that basis alone is given a solid chance. It won’t be an easy race to conquer this event with plenty capable of putting their hands up for the ultimate prize. Nonetheless, I’m anticipating her rapid improvement second up shall be worthy of what’s required.

 

SELECTIONS: 3. SANS DOUTE, 15. PHARARI, 19. PONDALOWIE, 7. INFANCY & 9. KIN

 

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