 Expert - Naohiro Goda | |
|---|---|
| Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin. | |
Expert Column for Japan Cup (S1-1) (Naohiro Goda)
S1-1 Japan Cup
G1 Japan Cup has been won by locally-trained horse for 18 consecutive years since 2006. The field of recent Japan Cup included only a couple of international runners each year, except 2019, when the races was conducted without a foreign raider. However, the 44th running of Japan Cup at Tokyo on 24th November, which carries total purse of 1,085,000,000 yen, approximately HK$53 million, looks different, as turf horse with high profile from Ireland, France, and Germany are intended runners.
Is Japan able to defend the title? My opinion is “Yes”.
My favorite is CERVINIA, only 3YO filly in the field. She is a winner of G1 Japanese Oaks at same course and same distance as Japan Cup and I regard her form in Japanese Oaks highly, as her winning time was 0.3 seconds faster than the time of DANON DECILE in Japanese Derby, which took place at same course and same distance a week later. And past records prove that 3YO fillies could be competitive in Japan Cup. ALMOND EYE won the Japan Cup in 2018, CURREN BOUQUETD'OR and LIBERTY ISLAND finished second in Japan Cup in 2019 and 2023, and DARING TACT finished third in Japan Cup in 2020. I believe CERVINIA is able to conquer the Japan Cup running against this quality field.
My second choice is also female runner, STARS ON EARTH, who is a winner of G1 Japanese Oaks in 2022. And she finished third to EQUINOX in Japan Cup last year. She has started at Tokyo for six times and finished within first three in all those six starts. And her track work at Miho Training Center on 14th November, when she was breezed for five furlongs and clocked 65.1 seconds, was very impressive. Though this is first start for her since March, I am sure she is ready to run her race on Sunday.
I respect AUGUSTE RODIN, who has won six G1s, and believe Tokyo is suitable track for him, who prefers quick ground. AUGUSTE RODIN arrived at Tokyo Racecourse on 14th November and it looks he is enjoying new surrounding at home country of his sire, DEEP IMPACT. AUGUSTE RODIN is my third choice.
My fourth choice is DUREZZA. His fascinating performance in G1 Kikuka Sho (Japanese St. Leger) last year is still fresh memory for me. His performance in G1 International Stakes at York on 21st August was disappointing, as I had a high hope. On the other hand, it was not so bad arguably, as he finished two and a quarter length behind BLUESTOCKING, subsequent Arc winner. And he started at Tokyo twice and won both of them.
As SHIN EMPEROR reproduces his form in G1 Irish Champion Stakes on Sunday, I assess he has a good chance to hit the board in Japan Cup.
SELECTIONS: 9. CERVINIA, 14. STARS ON EARTH, 8. AUGUSTE RODIN, 10. DUREZZA & 7. SHIN EMPEROR
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