Expert - Brett Davis

Brett Davis was introduced to Australian Racing by his father back in the early 1980’s when his family became involved in formulating “Thoroughbred Racing Syndications”. Brett worked from 1995 as a Professional Form Analysts and Race Broadcaster with an array of companies throughout most parts of the Australia Racing industry. He currently resides in Adelaide, his hometown in Australia, where he is Chief Thoroughbred Race Caller and Form Analyst for Tabcorp / SkyChannel / RadioTAB. Brett Davis also spent 2 years with the Singapore Turf Club and 13 Racing Seasons with the Hong Kong Jockey Club between 2006 to 2019 as a leading Form Analyst / Race Caller and was the HKJC Chief Race Caller from 2014, calling the last 5 Hong Kong International (Turf World Championships) race meetings and over 50 G1 races. Brett has immense passion for Australian Racing both personally and professionally. With his diverse knowledge and long standing industry relations he’s a valuable asset to racing and it’s enthusiasts.

 

Expert Column for New Zealand Derby Day (S1) (Brett Davis)

 

S1-1     HKJC World Pool NZ Thoroughbred Breeders' Stakes

LEGARTO is a proven G1 star who returned from a lengthy spell to record an impressive victory in the Listed Champagne Stakes at Matamata. In that event, she settled in the second half of the field, took off a fair way from home and was able to sustain that run right to the line, confirming herself to be a class above her opposition. She’s likely to have improved for that run, she’s got a perfect second up record and has drawn well in gate three. She’s the one to beat.

 

KONASANA has been racing very well across both sides of the Tasman for the Chris Waller stable during the spring and summer months. She was able to win here at Ellerslie two starts ago and then got to the line solidly for fourth in the G1 Otaki-Maori WFA Classic behind high class galloper, EL VENCEDOR. She should appreciate racing against her own gender in this race, which LEGARTO aside, isn’t as strong as what she contested last time out. If she can get a bit of lucky from her tricky draw, she’ll be right in contention.

 

ACQUARELLO is a very consistent mare. She’s drawn a nice barrier in gate two and won’t have to work hard from there to take up a prominent spot in the run. It would be good to see her drop her head and settle better in the run, as although she wouldn’t have beaten LEGARTO last time out, she didn’t help herself by wanting to over race. On her overall profile and particularly her LEGARTO form lines, she’s entitled to make her presence felt.

 

CAMPIONESSA is another quality mare who has been freshened up for this event. She’s probably not in the best form of her career but one of her better runs lately was over this trip three starts, so she may appreciate the return to 1600m. Star jockey Michael Dee takes the ride and from gate four should give her every conceivable hope in the run. At her best, she is a G1 winner, so even if she just gets close to that level, she deserves to be amongst the key hopefuls.

 

MERCHANT QUEEN needs to improve on ratings to be a winning chance, but she does bring quality form behind EL VENCEDOR, demonstrating that she can hold her own at this level. She’ll be up on the pace making her own luck in running and will be ridden by George Rooke, who’s enjoying a good season in the saddle.

 

SELECTIONS: 1. LEGARTO, 5. KONASANA, 7. ACQUARELLO, 3. CAMPIONESSA & 12. MERCHANT QUEEN

 

1ST DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):

S1-1	Multiple
	1. LEGARTO & 5. KONASANA
S1-2	Multiple
	1. EL VENCEDOR & 7. ORCHESTRAL

 

S1-2     New Zealand Stakes

EL VENCEDOR had a February to remember, winning all three of his starts last month, two of which came at G1 level. In those latest triumphs, he defeated the main rivals he faces here and has also shown that he’s tactically versatile, able to control proceedings from the front or take a sit and then unleash a winning run. He’s the form horse of the race, the highest-rated runner in the field, and looks poised to achieve his fourth consecutive victory.

 

ORCHESTRAL looked like she was destined to become the next star of New Zealand racing the way that she won last year’s New Zealand Derby. That hasn’t necessarily eventuated, but she did win two starts ago on Karaka Millions night and I didn’t mind the way that she got to the line behind EL VENCEDOR last time over 1600m. The step up to 2000m gives her the opportunity to return to her best form here.

 

LA CRIQUE is a top-class mare and on ratings is the main danger to EL VENCEDOR. She had excuses when they met last time out in the G1 Herbie Dyke Stakes as the race was run at a sedate pace that suited EL VENCEDOR, but she still finished the race off well for second. My slight query is whether or not she’s more effective over 1600m compared to 2000m at this stage of her career but on class, she’s clearly one of the main hopes.

 

QALI AL FARRASHA doesn’t know how to run a bad race and actually split EL VENCEDOR and ORCHESTRAL last time out in the G1 Otaki-Maori WFA Classic, where she sat off the pace and had every hope but still stuck on solidly for the runner up spot. She’s from the powerful Mark Walker & Sam Bergerson stable, who’ve booked Blake Shinn for the ride. It will be worth following Shinn’s mounts at this meeting, given that he would’ve commanded a strong book of rides at Flemington today but has instead opted to compete at Ellerslie.

 

WHANGAEHU is enjoying an excellent campaign and caught the eye with his effort to run third in the G1 Herbie Dyke Stakes, where he got home strongly in a race that wasn’t run to suit him from a tempo point of view. He’ll appreciate the rise in distance to 2000m, the booking of Michael Dee is significant and if they run along at a more genuine pace, that will be in his favour.

 

SELECTIONS: 1. EL VENCEDOR, 7. ORCHESTRAL, 6. LA CRIQUE, 8. QALI AL FARRASHA & 2. WHANGAEHU

 

2ND DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):

S1-2	Multiple
	1. EL VENCEDOR & 7. ORCHESTRAL
S1-3	Multiple
	11. TAJANIS & 5. BLUE SKY AT NIGHT

 

S1-3     Auckland Cup

TAJANIS has the right profile to win a two-mile handicap like this as an in form, progressive stayer from a renowned stable. The Chris Waller trained former European galloper has won his last two starts in Sydney, including an effortless success in the Listed Australia Day Cup at his latest outing. Waller has secured quality Kiwi jockey Michael McNab for the mount, the horse gets in with a nice light weight, he’s enjoyed a recent freshen up and should receive an economical run in the race from barrier three. While the 3200m is an unknown factor, the ease with which he won last time out suggests he’s likely to handle it. In an open race, he’s the one that ticks the most boxes for mine.

 

BLUE SKY AT NIGHT is perhaps the best of the local hopes, having defeated several of her competitors last time out in the G3 Avondale Cup. She’s in form at the right time, boasting three wins from her last five starts, she’s fared well at the barrier draw and has the benefit of a light weight. While she may not be bred for two miles, her style of racing indicates that she’s got no stamina issues and if she runs up to what she’s been doing recently, she’ll be thereabouts at the finish.

 

INTERPRETATION is the best horse in the race, as he’s put in terrific performances in races like the G1 Melbourne Cup and G3 Geelong Cup over the past eighteen months. 3200m is his ideal trip, this has been a target race for him, he’s trained by top Australian trainer Ciaron Maher and will be ridden by another superstar in Blake Shinn. In addition to that, he’s had two lead up runs in New Zealand and has had excuses in both of them. The big concern is the topweight, particularly in a staying race, hence why I’ve sided with a couple of the lightweight runners in the handicap ahead of him.

 

SAILOR JACK’s latest win might have been in a limited race on the synthetic, but he caught my eye with his run in the G3 Avondale Cup, a key lead up event for this. On that occasion, he was travelling well coming into the straight yet was held up at crucial stages at the business end of proceedings. He still got to the line really well to finish seventh and I’m sure he would’ve gone close with a bit more luck on his side. Michael Dee takes the ride; he gets in on the minimum weight and can run a big race at double figure odds.

 

SWORD IN STONE has quickly made an impact back in New Zealand after he was formerly prepared by Caspar Fownes in Hong Kong under the name of COLUMBUS COUNTY. He was a noted stayer in Hong Kong, finishing in the placings in the 2020 G1 Hong Kong Vase and 2021 G1 Champions and Chater Cup. Since joining Kevin and Stephen Gray’s stable in New Zealand, SWORD IN STONE has won two of his four starts and gave the indication that he only did what was required of him to salute last time. He’s now a 9YO, so his best days are almost certainly behind him, but he’ll be at his peak for this race, he’s got his fair share of quality and will enjoy getting out to this trip.

SELECTIONS: 11. TAJANIS, 5. BLUE SKY AT NIGHT, 1. INTERPRETATION, 9. SAILOR JACK & 2. SWORD IN STONE

 

3RD DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):

S1-3	Multiple
	11. TAJANIS & 5. BLUE SKY AT NIGHT
S1-4	Multiple
	1. EVAPORATE & 2. PUBLIC ATTENTION

 

TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):

S1-3	Multiple
	11. TAJANIS, 5. BLUE SKY AT NIGHT & 1. INTERPRETATION
S1-4	Multiple
	1. EVAPORATE, 2. PUBLIC ATTENTION & 8. DAMASK ROSE
S1-5	Multiple
	2. TUXEDO, 1. THEDOCTOROFLOVE & 5. OCEANA DREAM

 

S1-4     NZB Kiwi

EVAPORATE brings the strongest form lines to this race, he came a long way in a short time during the Melbourne spring, winning three successive races before finishing third in the G1 Caulfield Guineas and then contesting the G1 Cox Plate in his final run of the campaign. He had an unlucky first-up run and competed against Australia’s best sprinter-milers in the G1 Futurity Stakes last time out. Against his own age group here, third up, at peak fitness, and at this distance, he’ll be hard to beat.

 

PUBLIC ATTENTION is a horse that his trainers, Mick Price and Michael Kent Jnr, have always held in high regard. His form is better than it appears on paper, as he’s often faced challenges during the race. He returned to racing this year with an excellent win in the G3 Eskimo Prince Stakes before finishing a creditable fourth last time in the G2 Hobartville Stakes. Those runs in Sydney this preparation have also demonstrated that he’s effective when racing right-handed. While the barrier draw looks tricky, his racing style should allow him to maintain a prominent position. He’s a horse with a big race in him, and perhaps this could be it.

 

DAMASK ROSE is the pick of the locals for mine, based off her success in the Listed Karaka Millions, where she let down with a barnstorming finish to take out the race. That form reads very strongly for this event, she’s trained by New Zealand’s leading trainers and will be ridden by Blake Shinn. Weather conditions won’t bother her either, as she’s proven on good or rain affected going. She’s a lightly raced filly on the rise and will certainly be looming large at the business end of this contest.

 

PERFUMIST has worked her way up in the grades very quickly over the last few months, winning four of her last five starts in New South Wales. Her streak may have come to an end last time out but there was still plenty of merit to the performance, as she settled close to a hot speed and was left in front a long way out from home. She did a great job to hold on for second that day and she won’t have to work hard this time to take up a forward spot in the run. What’s more, we haven’t seen where exactly her ceiling is just yet and Bjorn Baker’s stable is airborne at the moment, so his horses are worth paying close attention to wherever they are racing at.

 

PIVOTAL TEN hasn’t been racing at the most high-profile meetings, but it’s hard to knock a 3YO that has won her last five in a row like she has. Her latest victory in the Listed Southland Guineas was breathtaking, as she led and then kicked away on the home turn to win by nearly nine lengths. This is a big step up in grade for her, but at the very least, she’ll give you a sight.

 

SELECTIONS: 1. EVAPORATE, 2. PUBLIC ATTENTION, 8. DAMASK ROSE, 7. PERFUMIST & 9. PIVOTAL TEN

 

4TH DOUBLE SELECTIONS (4 unit bets):

S1-4	Multiple
	1. EVAPORATE & 2. PUBLIC ATTENTION
S1-5	Multiple
	2. TUXEDO & 1. THEDOCTOROFLOVE

 

DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):

S1-4	Banker
	1. EVAPORATE
	Selections
	2. PUBLIC ATTENTION, 8. DAMASK ROSE, 7. PERFUMIST & 9. PIVOTAL TEN
S1-5	Banker
	2. TUXEDO
	Selections
	1. THEDOCTOROFLOVE, 5. OCEANA DREAM, 4. WILLYDOIT & 3. BOURBON PROOF

 

S1-5     New Zealand Derby

TUXEDO has been a model of consistency and was very impressive visually in winning the G2 Waikato Guineas at his final lead up run, settling back in the field and then letting down with a strong run to score convincingly. My only criticism of that performance was that he was a little wayward over the concluding stages, so it would be good to see him put in a more professional display this time, but nevertheless, it was hard not to be taken with how effortlessly he put the field away that day. He’ll need luck from a wide draw, but I think there will be enough speed on for him, and if he reproduces that latest run, he’ll go very close in a pretty even renewal of the Derby.

 

THEDOCTOROFLOVE is a lightly raced stayer from Australia who put himself into the Derby picture thanks to his success in the G2 Avondale Guineas. On face value, it was quite a workmanlike performance to score but he did have to cover ground in the early stages of the race. This would have been a target race for him, so he’ll be primed and ready to go, plus he’s from a stable that’s renowned for their success in these 3YO staying features.

 

OCEANA DREAM is from the highly respected Roger James and Robert Wellwood stable and has quickly risen to attention in 2025. He racked up victories at his first two starts and then caught the eye with his effort in the G2 Avondale Guineas, running on encouragingly for third behind THEDOCTOROFLOVE, thus giving the indication that he’ll relish the step up in distance to 2400m here. Furthermore, he’s bred to handle these sorts of trips being by Cox Plate winner OCEAN PARK. He’s still an improving horse on an upward trajectory but on the potential, he’s shown thus far, he’s definitely a genuine each way contender for the Derby.

 

WILLYDOIT’s heads into the Derby with three wins from his last four starts but was then unplaced in the G2 Avondale Guineas, which he was the favourite. Things won’t be easy for him either here as he faces a tough task from an awkward draw in gate 14. On the flip side however, he was winning his races comfortably prior to his last start, the race wasn’t run to suit him in the G2 Avondale Guineas, and he gets a significant bonus thanks to the engagement of Michael Dee. If he can return to his best and receive some much-needed luck in running, then he’s a serious hope.

 

BOURBON PROOF has the right credentials to be in contention for this prestigious event, having performed creditably in the Listed Karaka Million and then the G2 Waikato Guineas and the G2 Avondale Guineas. Even though he couldn’t hold off THEDOCTOROFLOVE last time out at Ellerslie, there was a lot to like about the performance because he had to be used up in the early stages of the race to get across and lead from his wide draw. The draw is on his side this time as Michael McNab can position him wherever he likes from barrier three. He probably needs to improve to beat a horse like TUXEDO, but he’ll get the chance to run up to his best and should finish around the mark.

 

SELECTIONS: 2. TUXEDO, 1. THEDOCTOROFLOVE, 5. OCEANA DREAM, 4. WILLYDOIT & 3. BOURBON PROOF

 

 

 

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