 Australia Expert - Patrick Payne |
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| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Overseas Expert Column for Victoria Derby Day (Patrick Payne)
S1-1 Coolmore Stud Stakes
FIRE THUNDERBOLT is a lovely, athletic type and has won 2 out of 3 starts, including a victory down this straight as a juvenile. In his most recent run he ran an excellent and close 2nd behind rival SNITZERLAND and he is likely to be the value runner in the race at identical weights.
SIZZLING, a Group 1 winning raider from Queensland, showed enough in working home into half a length 4th behind SNITZERLAND and FIRE THUNDERBOLT at Caulfield 14 days ago and he is rated a serious player.
Trainer Paul Perry said HIDDEN WARRIOR won despite not really handling Moonee Valley last Saturday in a Group 3 and feels his gelding will be much better to this track so it might be worth heeding the view of a good judge.
This year’s Golden Slipper runner-up and multiple stakes winner, SNITZERLAND is a super consistent filly who simply does not run a bad race. She looks in excellent order but this is a tough assignment.
SELECTIONS: 3. FIRE THUNDERBOLT, 1. SIZZLING, 2. HIDDEN WARRIOR & 9. SNITZERLAND
S1-2 LONGINES Mackinnon Stakes
OCEAN PARK should start favourite and could not possibly be in better form having won his last four starts, all at this highest level. He backs up one week after lifting the Cox Plate in great fashion, he is in peak fitness and you have to admire his will to win.
A fortnight ago we witnessed the in-form ALCOPOP caught in the final strides of the Caulfield Cup by the top class DUNADEN and prior to that he ran 2nd to OCEAN PARK with whom he renews rivalry. A repeat of those performances places him firmly in the reckoning again and it doesn’t hurt that top jockey Craig Williams takes over the reins.
GLASS HARMONIUM won this race last year after a sub-par effort in the Cox Plate and he ran poorly again at Moonee Valley last week; he fares much better around Flemington. If he breaks well and travels, he has the ability to run very well so don’t totally ignore his prospects.
It is difficult to assess the chances of DECEMBER DRAW given his disappointing effort recently in the Caulfield Cup, but we have to conclude that he did not see the 2400 metres distance out. Back to his home track - he has won 3 out of four at this exact distance here – he warrants another chance.
SELECTIONS: 7. OCEAN PARK, 3. ALCOPOP, 2. GLASS HARMONIUM & 4. DECEMBER DRAW
S1-3 AAMI Victoria Derby
IT’S A DUNDEEL lost his unbeaten record on his sixth career outing last weekend when being an odds-on favourite behind rival SUPER COOL. However, the small field and slow pace contributed to his demise given his usual hold-up style; this bigger track and longer distance ought to have a strong bearing on a different outcome. The Group 1 winner will be fitter and I sill rate him as the one to beat.
Consistent Sydney stayer HONORIUS has been in the shake-up in all four runs this preparation without being quite good enough to have his head in front at the line. Still, he seems likely to run out the Derby distance and should be included in multiple bets.
HVASSTAN landed one of the main Derby preps, the Group 2 Norman Robinson Stakes over 2000 metres, at Caulfield a fortnight ago and has been working well in the lead-up to this primary target. The in-form Glen Boss is his regular rider and hardly anyone is riding better therefore it would be no surprise to see him go close.
SUPER COOL entered Derby calculations after beating IT’S A DUNDEEL at Moonee Valley on Saturday but that was over 2040 metres and it is not guaranteed that this extra 460 metres will play to his strengths regardless of how well he is racing. However, he possesses a great turn of foot and trainer Mark Kavanagh has produced his share of Group 1 winners.
SELECTIONS: 1. IT’S A DUNDEEL, 3. HONORIUS, 5. HVASSTAN & 4. SUPER COOL
S1-4 Myer Classic
We all saw dual Group 1 winning mare STREAMA make pretty much all of the running in the Group 2 Tristarc Stakes at Caulfield a fortnight back over 1400 metres and she certainly looks the one they all have to get past again. Stamina won’t be an issue (she has won over 2400 metres) and she sets the standard as the highest-rated member of the field.
RED TRACER is chasing an elusive first Group 1 victory but she closed strongly for third behind STREAMA last time at Caulfield and gave the impression that this extra furlong is what she needs to maybe break her duck at the highest level.
SECRET ADMIRER did not appear to get home in the Caulfield Cup last time out but here she is back against her own sex, at her best distance, she is also drawn well and ridden by a top jockey so there are plenty of positives to consider with her.
It might be worth keeping an eye on the big mare OASIS BLOOM who has been granted a decent barrier and won a Group 2 on her penultimate outing and was a good 2nd last time out after a wide trip. She might be the value in the race.
A Group 1 winner in Brisbane over 1400 metres, PEAR TART showed that she is finding peak form with a battling second to rival STREAMA last time in the Tristarc Stakes. She has yet to race over the mile but she is bred to handle the distance and is again worth including in multiple bets.
SELECTIONS: 1. STREAMA, 4. RED TRACER, 2.SECRET ADMIRER, 10. OASIS BLOOM & 6. PEAR TART
S1-5 Yellowglen Stakes (Linlithgow Stakes)
There is already talk about HOWMUCHDOYOULOVEME being a Group 1 sprinter in the making and a sparkling piece of work at this track was the catalyst for a major betting move on him not just for this race, but also the Group 1 Patinack Farm Classic next week. He was brilliant winner at Caulfield last start on October 20 when he was said to be only 85% fit so he is the obvious selection.
A winner at this class and distance in Sydney in September, PAMPELONNE is possibly an emerging Group 1 horse and he ran well when 4th over a 1000 metres distance short of his optimum last time out at Caulfield, so he seems a decent chance of improving on that finish in this occasion.
Course and distance form is always important down this sprint chute and two other candidates that fill that bill are GOLDEN ARCHER and SPIRIT OF BOOM. The former has three wins and a 2nd from four starts down the straight here - that’s a record that speaks for itself and he remains in good form. The latter, SPIRIT OF BOOM, has been beaten tight margins when placed at Group 2 and Group 3 level this campaign and that sort of ability can’t be ignored too readily.
Another to look out for is TIGER TEES, a very consistent sprinter who races on pace and can still finish with strong sectionals so expect him to be competitive.
SELECTIONS:6. HOWMUCHDOYOULOVEME, 3. PAMPELONNE, 2. GOLDEN ARCHER, 5. SPIRIT OF BOOM & 1. TIGER TEES
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (36 unit bets):
S1-4:
Banker - 1. STREAMA
Selections - 4. RED TRACER, 2. SECRET ADMIRER, 10. OASIS BLOOM & 6. PEAR TART
S1-5:
Banker - 6. HOWMUCHDOYOULOVEME
Selections - 3. PAMPELONNE, 2. GOLDEN ARCHER, 5. SPIRIT OF BOOM & 1. TIGER TEES
S1-6 Chatham Stakes
From the powerful Peter Snowden yard, FREE WHEELING looked very impressive winning a Listed event over 1200 metres at Caulfield two weeks ago and seems destined for greater prizes than that, he is sure to be well supported in the market.
A horse who adores Flemington winning four of his six starts here, the talented FAWKNER is in great form. He tends to race from off the pace but usually delivers a powerful finishing kick and merits consideration on that basis.
Runner-up in this race three years ago, the veteran MCCLINTOCK is the likely leader in the race and is racing in good form having been placed in his last two runs, both at Caulfield. He can go well again but a place appears best.
INSTINCTION has winning course and distance form and comes into this contest in good spirits on the back of a Listed win at Caulfield last month. He has drawn pretty well in midfield.
SELECTIONS: 5. FREE WHEELING, 4. FAWKNER, 8. MCCLINTOCK & 6. INSTINCTION
TREBLE SELECTIONS (6 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple- 1. STREAMA, 4. RED TRACER & 2. SECRET ADMIRER
S1-5: Single- 6. HOWMUCHDOYOULOVEME
S1-6: Multiple- 5. FREE WHEELING & 4. FAWKNER
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