 Australia Expert - Patrick Payne |
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| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Overseas Expert Column for Blue Diamond Stakes Day (Patrick Payne)
S1-1 BMW Caulfield Autumn Classic
The last time we saw FIVEANDAHALFSTAR in one of these simulcast races he won the Group 1 Victoria Derby at big odds over 2500 metres and he did nothing wrong on his return to the fray here two weeks ago when 2nd in the Autumn Stakes over 1400 metres, a distance well short of his best. He needed the run on that occasion and will be fitter now.
Runner-up to the selection in the Derby and again behind him in the above comeback race here recently, Super Cool can chase home my main selection again.
High Shot has only had two starts to date and wasn’t disgraced last start behind my two principal choices here when the race wasn’t really run to suit. Connections have a high opinion of him and he can improve with Craig Williams taking over.
SELECTIONS: 1. FIVEANDAHALFSTAR, 2. Super Cool & 5. High Shot
S1-2 Carlton Draught Peter Young Stakes
The tempo here is not likely to be very strong which could favour MAWINGO who really should have beaten the top class ALL TOO HARD last time here in the Group 1 Orr Stakes when he was held up for a run at the 200-metre marker. He looked fit in the paddock on that occasion and with natural improvement to come, and over this longer distance, he looks the winner.
MR MOET, third last start in that same race, certainly has the ability to be in the finish again. He missed the start and was checked early causing to get too far out of his ground last time out. If he breaks on terms here he can prove a major contender.
FORETELLER will be much fitter now after two runs back from a spell and the extra distance in this event suits. Elsewhere, it's hard to argue with the current form of ECLAIR SURPRISE, the winner of his last four starts, including a Group 3 at this distance in November.
SELECTIONS: 3. MAWINGO, 1. MR MOET, 5. FORETELLER & 6. ECLAIR SURPRISE
S1-3 Cathay Pacific Futurity Stakes
Brett Prebble has made a flying visit back home to be reunited with Melbourne Cup hero GREEN MOON who has his first run back after winning the world famous two mile handicap in November. Obviously he wants further and will come on for the run, but is still talented enough to win this while fresh. He is also drawn with the inside barrier.
The pace in this should be pretty strong with a number of contenders likely to go forward. The tempo could set the race up for Cox Plate runner-up ALL TOO HARD who will be a little more patiently ridden and he will have come on from his reappearance at this course and distance two weeks ago when he won the Group 1 Orr Stakes.
KING MUFHASA ran fourth in this event in 2011 before winning it a year ago and he comes here fitter for running fifth to ALL TOO HARD in the Orr Stakes. He will race prominently and hold down a place.
It's never easy predicting what GLASS HARMONIUM is going to do given his tendency to miss the start. But on the occasions he does get away on terms he can prove very dangerous on or near the lead. I'm hoping he has one of his better days today.
Trained by Peter Moody at her home track, LIGHTS OF HEAVEN seems next best. She can go well fresh and her third placed effort in the 2012 Caulfield Cup recommends her as a viable player for some stakes money.
SELECTIONS: 1. GREEN MOON, 10. ALL TOO HARD, 2. KING MUFHASA, 4. GLASS HARMONIUM & 8. LIGHTS OF HEAVEN
S1-4 Patinack Farm Blue Diamond Stakes
MIRACLES OF LIFE is unbeaten 3 out of 3 coming off a great win last start in the Blue Diamond Preview for this race and she has drawn the inside rail. If she gets the split in the straight I feel she will keep her unbeaten record.
GUELPH is a big, powerful filly coming off an impressive win over 1100 metres in the Group 3 Blue Diamond Prelude for this race two weeks ago. The choice of jockey Kerrin McEvoy from three Darley runners, it appears that she will handle the pressure here and she looks hard to beat.
Peter Moody has said there is little to choose between his three runners here so DISSIDENT also looks interesting. Racing greenly cost him victory here last start and the blinkers going on for the first time should help.
METASTASIO is another Darley-owned runner from the Peter Snowden stable and is unbeaten from two starts. She won a Listed race at this track very easily three weeks ago when racing to the fore.
SELECTIONS: 10. MIRACLES OF LIFE, 8. GUELPH, 2. DISSIDENT & 9. METASTASIO
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (18 unit bets):
S1-3: Banker – 1. GREEN MOON
Selections – 10. ALL TOO HARD, 2. KING MUFHASA, 4. GLASS HARMONIUM & 8. LIGHTS OF HEAVEN
S1-4: Banker – 10. MIRACLES OF LIFE
Selections – 8. GUELPH, 2. DISSIDENT & 9. METASTASIO
S1-5 Oakleigh Plate
The pace will be red hot here which should play towards horses able to settle behind the speed or no worse than midfield. UNDENIABLY, towards the foot of the weights, likes this track as a win and a second from two recent starts here attest. He can sit off the pace and do his best work at the finish and so merits respect at what should be decent each-way odds.
Unbeaten from 11 starts, the West Australian sprinter BARAKEY puts his reputation on the line here and he has drawn pretty well in midfield so he should be able to get cover from there and give himself every chance. We'll see just how good he is now on what's his toughest test yet.
Much has been expected of SHAMAL WIND since winning a Listed race at Flemington in November in fast time and she maintained her strike-rate despite probably being in need of the race on her return to action at Moonee Valley 15 days ago. Her chance is aided by a useful weight allowance for 3 year olds, the inside gate and neither does it hurt that big race jockey Glen Boss is in the saddle.
RESCUE MISSION has not finished out of the Quinella in the last 5 runs with the last two coming in sprints at this track. His gate in 10 means he will race a little further back than normal and as long as he settles in the run he will be strong in the closing stages. FREERETURN is a rough chance to figure at odds on his first run back since October.
SELECTIONS: 13. UNDENIABLY, 3. BARAKEY, 14. SHAMAL WIND, 11. RESCUE MISSION & 9. FREERETURN
S1-6 TBV Mannerism Stakes
There is not much between this bunch of mares and it seems the quality of this race is not as good as in recent years. STAR OF GISELLE should lead or position just off the pace from her rail position. When she is allowed to dictate terms she can be very hard to get past.
Three times a winner at this track, SPIRIT SONG is a strapping mare who has been set for this race and must be a strong chance. HI BELLE won this race last year and a repeat victory has clearly been the objective for trainer John Gunning.
European import NEVER FORGET has not been suited in recent runs and while this distance still seems shorter than ideal, she looked good in parade ring last start and could surprise at decent odds. VIBRANT ROUGE looks the other one to factor in. She should have finished closer over 1200 metres here last start having been a little wayward at the turn for home.
SELECTIONS: 3. STAR OF GISELLE, 1. SPIRIT SONG, 2. HI BELLE, 8. NEVER FORGET & 10. VIBRANT ROUGE
TREBLE SELECTIONS (8 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple - 10. MIRACLES OF LIFE & 8. GUELPH
S1-5: Multiple - 13. UNDENIABLY & 3. BARAKEY
S1-6: Multiple - 3. STAR OF GISELLE & 1. SPIRIT SONG
Disclaimer:
The above content and information are the personal views and/or opinions of each individual writer and do not represent the views of The Hong Kong Jockey Club and/or its subsidiaries (together, the "HKJC"). The content and information are provided by the writers solely for entertainment purpose only, and should not be construed as a suggestion for anyone to place any bet nor should they be taken and/or relied upon as advice of any kind. The above content and information have not been verified, confirmed and/or endorsed by HKJC and HKJC shall not be liable to any person for any loss or damage suffered by such person as a result of any use or reliance of the above content or information.
Disclaimer:
The above content and information are the personal views and/or opinions of each individual writer and do not represent the views of The Hong Kong Jockey Club and/or its subsidiaries (together, the "HKJC"). The content and information are provided by the writers solely for entertainment purpose only, and should not be construed as a suggestion for anyone to place any bet nor should they be taken and/or relied upon as advice of any kind. The above content and information have not been verified, confirmed and/or endorsed by HKJC and HKJC shall not be liable to any person for any loss or damage suffered by such person as a result of any use or reliance of the above content or information.
HKJC shall not be required to give and does not give any warranty, whether express or implied, arising out of or in connection with the content or information. The Club disclaims any responsibility and accepts no liability (whether in tort, contract or otherwise) for any direct or indirect loss of damage arising from any inaccuracies, omission or typographical errors that may be contained therein. The Club also does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for purpose of any such information.
