 Australia Expert - Patrick Payne |
|
|---|---|
| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Overseas Expert Column for Victoria Derby Day (S1) and Rosehill Race Day (S2) (Patrick Payne)
S1-1 Coolmore Stud Stakes
ZOUSTAR, already a G1 winner, is hard to oppose. He has dominated the best 3yo races in Sydney and was explosive last time winning the G2 Roman Consul Stakes. He could be next big thing in Australian racing and you will be doing well to get even money about this big striding colt.
There is strong HK interest in NOT LISTENIN’TOME who is owned by John Moore. This guy has only had three starts and all have been very good and he seemed most unlucky last start. His two wins have been on big provincial tracks so Flemington should suit. Watch him closely as he might move to HK soon.
Queensland filly MISSY LONGSTOCKING has won eight of her eleven starts and arguably could have won the ones she lost and trainer Liam Birchley reckons she is a legitimate chance in this.
THUMP is another filly which created a good impression when she bolted up in a Moonee Valley G3 last start for trainer John Thompson who won this race a year ago.
SELECTIONS: 1.ZOUSTAR, 8.NOT LISTENIN’TOME, 9.MISSY LONGSTOCKING & 11.THUMP
S1-2 Mackinnon Stakes
SOLZHENITSYN is a remarkably tough horse racing in great form. He was never going to be beaten last start in the G1 Toorak Handicap over a mile and it’s likely he is the one they all have to catch again. In form trainer Robert Heathcote believes he will see out this distance and star jockey Nash Rawiller retains the ride.
Everyone saw how huge JET AWAY’s effort was last time in the Caulfield Cup when he did too much work under an ill-judged ride and was still only beaten less than two lengths. It’s worth noting that big race expert Glen Boss takes over the reins and as long as his latest effort has not taken too much out of him he will be competitive. He needs to win this race to get into the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday so there is every incentive for a big run.
English runner SIDE GLANCE comes into the race off the back of a respectable sixth-placed effort in the Cox Plate and will be fitter for that experience. Don’t forget he was good enough to run fourth in the Dubai World Cup, which is a stronger race than this.
The Cranbourne Cup winner PAKAL comes into this race still fresh so we should not underestimate him either.
SELECTIONS: 4.SOLZHENITSYN, 6.JET AWAY, 3.SIDE GLANCE & 7.PAKAL
S1-3 Victoria Derby
SAVVY NATURE is an exciting stayer and gets the vote. He has had the ideal preparation having won well in the notable G2 Derby trial Mitchelton Wines over 2,040m at Moonee Valley last Saturday and the feeling is that he will be even better suited to Flemington’s contours.
G1 winner COMPLACENT has set the benchmark in his lead-up races and he might have been the top pick had he not drawn the outside. Twice he has held rival SAVVY NATURE in his last two starts in Sydney, he is likely to go forward and should be right in the finish despite the awkward gate.
Jockey Hugh Bowman has won this race twice in last three editions and reckons he can go well again on POLANSKI, a big strong colt who is racing in good form, winning an important Derby prep, a G3 at Caulfield, last start over 2,000m convincingly. He looks certain to go forward from his inside barrier and will be hard to get past.
CRITERION is another that has not drawn ideally but he raced into calculations after his last start when he was second to COMPLACENT. He hit the line strongly on that occasion and rates a good chance with Craig Williams taking over the steering.
SELECTIONS: 3.SAVVY NATURE, 2.COMPLACENT, 4.POLANSKI & 1.CRITERION
S1-4 Myer Classic
Australia’s best mare at 1,400m or so is RED TRACER and she is in her career best form judged on how she toyed with her rivals in a G2 last time out at Caulfield. My only concern is stepping up to 1,600m but her class will carry her a long way so she looks the one to beat.
SHARNEE ROSE has won her last two starts at G3 level in Sydney, including a defeat of RED TRACER, and she seems to have blossomed under the care of Kris Lees and has to be put into Quinella bets.
FIRE UP FIFI is a very consistent mare and a proven miler. Her trainer is in excellent form and her Melbourne runs have been excellent, especially last time out behind RED TRACER when she got a long way back and finished strongly. She is suited stepping up in trip and must be respected even though she will need the pace on.
CATKINS, who finished strongly to win a G3 at this distance under a big weight last Saturday at Moonee Valley and deserves a crack at this level. She is very consistent, with eight wins and five minor placings from sixteen starts and that record speaks for itself.
SELECTIONS: 1.RED TRACER, 4.SHARNEE ROSE, 2.FIRE UP FIFI & 3.CATKINS
S1-5 Yellowglen Stakes (Linlithgow Stakes)
SHAMAL WIND is a small mare racing in great form. She was impressive first-up this season at Caulfield and very unlucky last start when held up and she probably should have won. She has won down the Flemington straight before so she rates a definite chance to bounce back to winning ways.
BENNETTA was a bit disappointing last start in the Tristarc Stakes at Caulfield but can improve with the blinkers applied for the first time. All her previous runs were excellent so she has to be taken on trust, but I feel it is worth the risk.
SPIRIT OF BOOM is very consistent sprinter and rarely far away in the finish and he won last start from SHAMAL WIND coming from back in the field. He placed four times from seven starts down the straight on this track so that sort of record cannot be ignored.
CHIARAMONTE seems suited stepping up in distance and he gets the opportunity to atone for a luckless effort last time at Caulfield when he was untested having been caught in traffic.
SELECTIONS: 11.SHAMAL WIND, 12.BENNETTA, 1.SPIRIT OF BOOM & 15.CHIARAMONTE
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (9 unit bets):
S1-4: Banker – 1.RED TRACER
Selections – 4.SHARNEE ROSE, 2.FIRE UP FIFI & 3.CATKINS
S1-5: Banker – 11.SHAMAL WIND
Selections – 12.BENNETTA, 1.SPIRIT OF BOOM & 15.CHIARAMONTE
S1-6 Chatham Stakes
BRITISH GENERAL is a consistent on-pace type who is racing in good form. He looked sensational in the yard before his most recent start when he won a Listed even over 1,400m at Caulfield and he is in peak fitness. It does not hurt either that he has won three times and placed three times at this course and distance.
GALAH has a reputation of promising a lot but seldom does he win. His first-up run was super and he could be in for a good preparation. This track and distance is ideal for him.
CENTENNIAL PARK is a consistent Sydney galloper who loves Flemington – he has two wins and a third at this course and distance. Ignore his last run at Caulfield when things did not go his way and he has been set for this race.
SELECTIONS: 8.BRITISH GENERAL, 3.GALAH & 6.CENTENNIAL PARK
TREBLE SELECTIONS (8 unit bets):
S1-4: 1.RED TRACER & 4.SHARNEE ROSE
S1-5: 11.SHAMAL WIND & 12.BENNETTA
S1-6: 8.BRITISH GENERAL & 3.GALAH
S2-1 Benchmark 75 Handicap
This is a very even race but KANJISTAR is the tentative selection having won two of his last three races and he has scope to improve further.
RASTRO won his most recent outing and is the pick of top trainer Chris Waller in this race so that merits automatic respect with jockey Glyn Schofield in the saddle.
IVORY COGNAC pulled up lame after his most recent start so he can be excused that performance. He is better assessed on winning his three previous sprints and if he’s back to that sort of form, he can be competitive.
QUICK’S THE WORD has good early pace and might look the winner for a long way. He has placed second in his last three starts and can figure prominently again.
SELECTIONS: 9.KANJISTAR, 8.RASTRO, 6.IVORY COGNAC & 7.QUICK’S THE WORD
S2-2 Filante Handicap
British import FULGUR has won his last three starts and has not been out of the frame in any of his six Australian outings and he gets some weight relief compared to his most recent victory. He is hard to fault at the moment and must be sided with.
Stable companion of the top selection COUP AY TEE – Chris Waller saddles a few in this race – is racing well. He was caught late on last time out after looking the winner and that looks strong form for this race.
TAXMEIFYOUCAN has drawn awkwardly in barrier 9 but has enough talent to be competitive judged on his fourth placed effort in the aforementioned G2 here a month ago.
SELECTIONS: 5.FULGUR, 2.COUP AY TEE & 7.TAXMEIFYOUCAN
Disclaimer:
The above content and information are the personal views and/or opinions of each individual writer and do not represent the views of The Hong Kong Jockey Club and/or its subsidiaries (together, the "HKJC"). The content and information are provided by the writers solely for entertainment purpose only, and should not be construed as a suggestion for anyone to place any bet nor should they be taken and/or relied upon as advice of any kind. The above content and information have not been verified, confirmed and/or endorsed by HKJC and HKJC shall not be liable to any person for any loss or damage suffered by such person as a result of any use or reliance of the above content or information.
HKJC shall not be required to give and does not give any warranty, whether express or implied, arising out of or in connection with the content or information. The Club disclaims any responsibility and accepts no liability (whether in tort, contract or otherwise) for any direct or indirect loss of damage arising from any inaccuracies, omission or typographical errors that may be contained therein. The Club also does not warrant the accuracy, completeness, timeliness or fitness for purpose of any such information.
