 Australia Expert - Patrick Payne |
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| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Overseas Expert Column for Blue Diamond Stakes Day (S1) and Apollo Stakes Day (S2) (Patrick Payne)
S1-1 Angus Armanasco Stakes
MARIANNE is lightly raced and has excellent form, especially at this track having figured in the first two in her three starts here to date. She just failed to pick up rival SPIRITS DANCE last start over 1200m but she was closing fast and this extra furlong will suit.
SPIRITS DANCE is a strong filly in top form, the winner of her last three starts, two of this coming at this track. She had the race run to suit last time in defeating my top selection but she fought on strongly over the final stages and I expect her to do the same again this time.
On face value, the effort by BOUND FOR EARTH on her return to action was a touch disappointing as she started favourite. However, the 1200m trip was possibly a fraction short for her and her status as a G2 winner and is a G1 placed horse from the spring carnival still ranks her as the best horse in the race and she is a likely improver.
PATRICIA DAWN was at odds over 40 when placing third in her most recent start behind MARIANNE but she was blocked for a run on that occasion so there appeared no real fluke about it. Trainer Pat Hyland excels with fillies and mares so there’s no reason why she can’t go well again.
SELECTIONS: 4.MARIANNE, 3.SPIRITS DANCE, 1.BOUND FOR EARTH & 5.PATRICIA DAWN
S1-2 Caulfield Autumn Classic
BRING SOMETHING must be one of the best middle distance maidens in Australia and this could be his chance to break through for a deserved first success. He was very highly tried in three Group races at the spring carnival and even if he failed to place he did not disgrace. He was tight for room over too short a distance on his recent return and can atone here.
This is only the third career run for the Dubai-owned DELIBERATE and he won his maiden handsomely at Geelong at the end of last month. He has untapped potential and is well worth having an interest in.
ALPHA BEAT is lightly raced and improving judged on his burst from last to first to defeat consistent rival JADE’S BOY at this track earlier this month over 1600m and this extra furlong should very much work in his favour.
SELECTIONS: 4.BRING SOMETHING, 11.DELIBERATE, 5.ALPHA BEAT & 3.JADE’S BOY
S1-3 Peter Young Stakes
November’s Melbourne Cup hero FIORENTE is one of Australia’s best gallopers. He trialled well in the lead up to his comeback and must be considered on class alone even though he should peak in a couple of weeks rather than at his first up run over a distance clearly short of his best.
German import PAKAL appears likely to go forward and if he can dictate as he likes he may prove difficult to run down. He returned well in a G3 over a mile here a fortnight ago and we haven’t seen the best of him in Australia yet.
STAR ROLLING looks ready to fire after having had a couple of lead up runs at this track and he seems well placed stepping up in distance to 1800m. He should also be improved on his last run in terms of fitness.
Winner of this race last year and a couple of G1 races since, FORETELLER is now seven but this evergreen galloper returned two weeks ago for this preparation with a pleasing fourth at weight for age over 1400m. This distance clearly suits much better and even though tempo could work against him but he is too classy not to include.
SELECTIONS: 1.FIORENTE, 6.PAKAL, 7.STAR ROLLING & 4.FORETELLER
S1-4 Futurity Stakes
MOMENT OF CHANGE is a super consistent galloper with an impressive record at this course and distance having won all three of his races, two of those at G1 level with the latest coming in the Orr Stakes at weight for age a fortnight ago when he made all the running. He sets a clear standard.
BULL POINT is already G1 placed as a 3yo and he won a G3 over 1200m here at the start of this month. He also worked extremely well with star galloper and stable companion FIORENTE here last Saturday, so there will be plenty of interest in how he performs.
The Victoria Derby hero POLANSKI makes his return to the track over a distance that is clearly sharper than ideal for him but he is a course and distance winner, he has won his last three starts and he trialled well in the lead up. He could be value to nick a place.
SIZZLING used to be trained in Brisbane and won the G2 Queensland Guineas at 1400m last June, his most recent victory. He posted an excellent run in what was a strong field last start but he tends to get back so the apparent lack of pace might be of some concern.
SELECTIONS: 2.MOMENT OF CHANGE, 9.BULL POINT, 8.POLANSKI & 1.SIZZLING
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (9 unit bets):
S1-3: Banker – 1.FIORENTE
Selections – 6.PAKAL, 7.STAR ROLLING & 4.FORETELLER
S1-4: Banker – 2.MOMENT OF CHANGE
Selections – 9.BULL POINT, 8.POLANSKI & 1.SIZZLING
S1-5 Blue Diamond Stakes
RUBICK is a beautifully bred colt with outstanding credentials. He was a bit anxious in the yard prior to the Blue Diamond Prelude for the colts and geldings but he won with authority and further improvement seems likely, especially with a favourable gate to exit.
EARTHQUAKE is a lovely athletic filly with a perfect raceday temperament to match. She treated her rivals with contempt last start here, winning the Blue Diamond Prelude for the fillies by just under three lengths, and looks the one to beat despite her wide gate.
CHIVALRY is an outstanding type with plenty of natural ability. All three runs have been very good and I would expect to see him storming home into the money having run third in the colts’ Blue Diamond Prelude.
NAYELI is unbeaten two-from-two, she is trained by Gai Waterhouse and therefore warrants another look. She was very impressive winning in her most recent outing at this track. From her middle gate she is likely to settle behind the speed, she will be dangerous from there.
NOSTRADAMUS, fourth in the colts’ Blue Diamond Prelude, is another to consider from a major stable used to winning these big races.
SELECTIONS: 2.RUBICK, 12.EARTHQUAKE, 4.CHIVALRY, 13.NAYELI & 5.NOSTRADAMUS
S1-6 Oakleigh Plate
LANKAN RUPEE ticks all the boxes for what will be a high-pressure race. He is trained on this track, he goes forward and has an excellent sprint record to date. Last start he was an easy G2 winner at this course and distance and he gave the impression beforehand that he still had some improvement to come.
KNOYDART has won his last three starts, the most recent two coming at Listed level quite comfortably. He looks ready to graduate to a higher level and still races from a handy mark. He looks very interesting at the weights with further upside anticipated.
SHAMAL WIND, a highly talented mare, has a good record here at Caulfield, including a last start win in Listed company and with that being her first run after a spell, she can be expected to come on again.
FLAMBERGE trialled well recently and should be respected on his home track. It could be argued that his best runs to date have been at Flemington but he has winning form here as well.
Adelaide-based KARACATIS is consistent and runs well fresh. He won a Listed race here at Caulfield at Christmas and has been kept back for this race since and could go well at odds.
SELECTIONS: 3.LANKAN RUPEE, 9.KNOYDART, 11.SHAMAL WIND, 12.FLAMBERGE & 13.KARACATIS
S1-7 Mannerism Stakes
ARINOSA is the class act of the field and should be forgiven for finishing well behind last start when she was jammed between runners and never found clear daylight. She will be fitter for the run and looks the likeliest winner.
HAI LIL is a quality country-trained galloper with an excellent record. Her form last preparation was good enough to suggest she can be competitive and her comeback run in town last start was also pleasing.
BONARIA, like my top selection ARINOSA in this race, was very unlucky last start here at Caulfield after being held up badly in the home straight. She gets back and will need luck but also has the ability to run well.
The other horse to look out could be DANESTROEM with whom trainer Michael Kent has done an excellent job. She races forward, so she could get a soft lead and the distance suits perfectly.
SELECTIONS: 1.ARINOSA, 6.HAI LIL, 2.BONARIA & 5.DANESTROEM
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: 2.RUBICK, 12.EARTHQUAKE & 4.CHIVALRY
S1-6: 3.LANKAN RUPEE, 9.KNOYDART & 11.SHAMAL WIND
S1-7: 1.ARINOSA, 6.HAI LIL & 2.BONARIA
S2-1 Apollo Stakes
Triple G1 winner APPEARANCE is probably Australia’s leading female sprinter-miler right now. She returned to the track with a most impressive win first up in Sydney over 1200m and she will be even better suited again up to 1400m. On that evidence whatever beats her will win.
BOBAN had an excellent spring winning both the G1 Epsom Handicap and Emirates Stakes at 1600m. However, he was no match for APPEARANCE last start and though upping to 1400m is a step in the right direction he remains at best over a mile.
Consistent galloper SPEEDINESS settled well behind the speed when beaten three lengths by my top pick APPEARANCE and can get closer in a race that does not seem as strong and up to 1400m.
G2 winner RAIN DRUM returns to action with Tommy Berry in the saddle. He is rarely far away in the finish and his recent trials have been pleasing.
SELECTIONS: 10.APPEARANCE, 1.BOBAN, 4.SPEEDINESS & 7.RAIN DRUM
S2-2 Triscay Stakes
This looks an even race but I have a minor preference for the Chris Waller-trained SHE’S CLEAN as she has course and distance winning form and is drawn well. She also goes very well fresh and has acquired top jockey in Nash Rawiller to ride her.
It’s interesting that jockey Corey Brown has been summoned from Singapore to ride at this meeting mainly for the John Hawkes team and this makes you take a second look at the claims of G2 winner JOLIE BAY.
SINGLE STYLE has won her only try at this course and distance and could represent value while LILLIBURLERO is better than what she has displayed on the track to date and is in the contention for some prize money.
SELECTIONS: 1.SHE’S CLEAN, 2.JOLIE BAY, 5.SINGLE STYLE & 6.LILLIBURLERO
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