 Japan Expert - Naohiro Goda |
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| Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin. | |
Overseas Expert Column for Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby)
S2-1 Tokyo Yushun (Japanese Derby)
The result in the G1 Japanese Oaks at Tokyo on May 25 has indicated to me there are two important factors to consider for the G1 Japanese Derby on Sunday. Firstly, the winner will have to be a horse that truly stays 2,400m. Secondly, the track bias is still there at Tokyo Racecourse. The rails side was faster than the stand side throughout the spring meeting, and the closers who tried to make up ground on the stand side of the homestretch, were struggling to catch up the far side group.
When the 3-y-o colt ONE AND ONLY won the G3 Radio Nikkei Hai Nisai Stakes impressively over 2,000m at Hanshin in December, I thought I might be watching a potential Derby winner. Five months on, and I am still thinking ONE AND ONLY has the best chance to win the Japanese Derby - although he has been beaten twice this year. He was narrowly beaten by TO THE WORLD in the G2 Yayoi Sho in March, his first start for three months, and then he was fourth in the G1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas) last time. He missed the break on that occasion, which is not his usual habit, and from the barrier one, things did not turn out as planned. I believe he has the class to win the Japanese Derby, and 2,400m is his optimum distance, as he is by HEART’S CRY, who bred the Japanese Oaks winner NUOVO RECORD last weekend. I expect ONE AND ONLY with Norihiro Yokoyama aboard, to break well, take a position to track the leaders along the rails, and prove too good for the opposition.
The Japanese Derby has been won by a filly three times in its history, and I would not be surprised if RED REVEUR, a 3-y-o filly by STAY GOLD, becomes the fourth filly to win the event. RED REVEUR has already beaten colts, when she won the G3 Sapporo Nisai Stakes over 1,800m last August. The rain-sodden track at Sapporo that day was very testing, and plenty of stamina was required to stay further than the 2,000m distance. Although she was a brilliant winner of the G1 Hanshin Juvenile Fillies over 1,600m, she is bred by STAY GOLD, sire of the ‘Monster’ ORFEVRE, and I believe 2,400m will not be a factor to spoil her performance.
TOSEN STARDOM, a 3-y-o colt by DEEP IMPACT, was disappointing in the G1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas), where he finished only 11th in 18 runner contest. However, the memory of his impressive performance in the Listed Kyoto Nisai Stakes over 2,000m at Kyoto in November, is still fresh in the mind, and I believe he has the potential to win the Japanese Derby, if he can reproduce that form on Sunday. It is also a big factor that he will be ridden by Yutaka Take who has won the Japanese Derby five times.
I cannot ignore ISLA BONITA, a 3-y-o colt who was a decisive winner of the G1 Satsuki Sho (Japanese 2000 Guineas), the first leg of the Triple Crown. I do not think however, as this colt’s sire has sent out many good milers and sprinters, he will be as good over 2,400m as he is over 2,000m.
SELECTIONS: 2 ONE AND ONLY, 16 RED REVEUR, 17 TOSEN STARDOM & 13 ISLA BONITA
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