 Australia Expert - Patrick Payne |
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| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Overseas Expert Column for Cox Plate Day (S1) (Patrick Payne)
S1-1 Drummond Golf Fillies Classic
LUMOSTY is a quality filly who should be going higher than this grade. She won her maiden by nine lengths and started favourite for the G1 Thousand Guineas last start only to miss the jump badly and lose all chance immediately. Trainer Robert Smerdon applies first time blinkers here to sharpen her and she worked well at this track recently.
TAHNI DANCER is improving and racing well, beaten just two lengths in the G1 Thousand Guineas last start when she closed off nicely. She also ran creditably at this venue previously in a strong form race and can’t be left out of calculations.
LITTLE HOTTIE is a lightly framed but very talented filly. She won well on debut but subsequently got a little too far back and was balked for a run at one stage in the straight. She is improving and looks a solid place chance.
Godolphin filly BERIMBAU is consistent but seemingly lacks the class of the aforementioned others. She could nick third or fourth if she gets the breaks in the run.
SELECTIONS: 1. LUMOSTY, 3. TAHNI DANCER, 6. LITTLE HOTTIE & 5. BERIMBAU
S1-2 Telstra Phonewords Stakes (Red Anchor Stakes)
Both victories from three starts by GALAXY PEGASUS came in much lower company than this but here he is likely to get the perfect run from gate three and trainer David Hayes & Tom Dabernig is not one to overtax their young horses if does not think they are ready.
GRECO hammered his rivals by five lengths when making all in a Sydney maiden ten days ago and that was more than enough to convince the clever Hawkes team that they have a potential star on their hands. You would have to stick with him.
PRESSING went close in a G1 in Brisbane over 1,600m in June but if he has improved in the off season he could go well over this shorter distance while fresh.
Quite an open race here but I’m leaning towards a good run from NICOSCENE with the blinkers on first time having got too far out of his ground last time at Caulfield and he might be a good price.
SELECTIONS: 10. GALAXY PEGASUS, 6. GRECO, 1. PRESSING & 5. NICOSCENE
S1-3 Racing.com Moonee Valley Gold Cup
AU REVOIR was a Listed winner in France but as we have seen time again, European stayers are often too strong in Australian stamina tests. He must win this race if he is to qualify for the Melbourne Cup and it’s interesting that master French trainer Andre Fabre fits blinkers with that objective in mind.
Another European import, LE ROI hails from a good stable. Last start he ran very well in the Cranbourne Cup and that should have improved his fitness. It should be pointed out, however, that Damien Oliver has got off him to ride AU REVOIR.
In a race where there does not appear to be a lot of speed, the likely pacesetter is MR O’CEIRIN. He could be hard to get past in the home straight and can be considered.
PRECEDENCE is a former winner of this race and is retaining his form at the age of nine. He has won two out of three starts at this course and distance and he had an excuse last time out here over a shorter trip when he was blocked for a run and wasn’t fully tested.
SELECTIONS: 4. AU REVOIR, 5. LE ROI, 3. MR O’CEIRIN & 1. PRECEDENCE
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (16 unit bets):
S1-3: Multiple – 4. AU REVOIR, 5. LE ROI, 3. MR O’CEIRIN & 1. PRECEDENCE
S1-4: Multiple – 5. TRUST IN A GUST, 6. HOOKED, 1. SPEEDINESS & 3. AKAVOROUN
S1-4 Schweppes Crystal Mile
TRUST IN A GUST arrives here with consecutive G1 wins on his resume and he has not been out of the quinella in his last six starts for four wins. He also meets most of his opposition better at the weights than when he won the G1 Toorak Handicap over 1,600m at Caulfield and is clearly the one to beat.
HOOKED is a consistent Sydney galloper likely to race forward and be some sort of winning chance. Last start he ran third in the G1 Epsom Handicap under a light weight and his overall record is solid having also had the quality to place in the Australian Derby earlier this year.
SPEEDINESS chased home TRUST IN A GUST in the above race last start and is very often the bridesmaid in these types of races. He has run second at this course and distance before and had drawn well for Nash Rawiller.
Another to have finished behind my top pick in the Toorak Handicap was AKAVOROUN who acquitted himself commendably despite a very wide trip. From a handier gate this time I’d anticipate that he is in the finish again.
SELECTIONS: 5. TRUST IN A GUST, 6. HOOKED, 1. SPEEDINESS & 3. AKAVOROUN
S1-5 Dilmah Exceptional Teas Vase (Moonee Valley Vase)
Even though he is still a maiden, ATMOSPHERE ranks third favourite for the Victoria Derby next week given how he ran on from well back in a Listed field at Flemington last week and only went down by a neck. This longer distance will suit and he has a nice draw to enable Nash Rawiller to be a little closer in transit.
Trainer Mark Kavanagh has made no secret of the regard in which he holds CHIVALRY but it seems the colt has been crying out for a step up in distance having stayed on for fifth in the G1 Caulfield Guineas last time over a mile. It has not hurt his chances by drawing the inside either.
GO INDY GO has looked a stayer in the making since winning the G1 Champagne Stakes over a mile in Sydney in April and she steps up to a more suitable distance. She has had an interrupted preparation and began to look right in the paddock on her most recent start a fortnight ago.
BONDEIGER has yet to finish out of the first three in his four starts and he did it the hard way last time at Caulfield having struck trouble at the top of the straight. He has drawn wide on this occasion but he has a willing attitude to offset that difficulty.
SELECTIONS: 10. ATMOSPHERE, 2. CHIVALRY, 13. GO INDY GO & 5. BONDEIGER
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-5: Multiple – 10. ATMOSPHERE, 2. CHIVALRY & 13. GO INDY GO
S1-6: Multiple – 2. FAWKNER, 1. SACRED FALLS & 8. CRITERION
S1-7: Multiple – 4. SUAVITO, 7. JESSY BELLE & 6. AVA’S DELIGHT
S1-6 Cox Plate
This year’s edition of Australia’s premier weight for age race is perhaps not the strongest ever but there is likely to be a strong tempo and that could play to the strengths of FAWKNER, ideally drawn in gate four, and arguably Australia’s best galloper at present. Last time FAWKNER won the G1 Caulfield Stakes over 2,000m, a race in which less than three lengths separated the first five past the post and all of those horses will do battle again.
SACRED FALLS, to be ridden again by Zac Purton, made very rapid headway in the latter race from the rear of the field to be fourth and was an unlucky loser. SACRED FALLS drew widest on that occasion and Purton felt a better barrier would have made the difference. The gate in nine is not ideal here but it’s not as bad as last time and the rider is in sparkling form.
Australian Derby winner CRITERION also didn’t have the race run to suit at Caulfield last time having been held up a fraction too far off a steady pace to flash home into second. There appears a good deal more speed in this race and he has drawn nicely so he should be in the thick of it again.
HAPPY TRAILS ran a very close second in this race a year ago having drawn an identical barrier in gate two. He also put in an encouraging trial in the Caulfield Stakes when fifth despite being pushed wide entering the straight and could be a strong win/place bet.
SELECTIONS: 2. FAWKNER, 1. SACRED FALLS, 8. CRITERION & 4. HAPPY TRAILS
QUARTET SELECTIONS (24 unit bets):
Multiple – 2.FAWKNER, 1. SACRED FALLS, 8. CRITERION & 4. HAPPY TRAILS
S1-7 Eliza Park International Stakes (Tesio Stakes)
SUAVITO is a quality mare very much suited to this class. For some reason she is often unlucky in races, such as last time out when she was repeatedly blocked for a run. The distance is ideal, she has drawn nicely and so she gets her chance to win a G3 race.
Away from this track, JESSY BELLE has sometimes a patchy record but at this course and distance she is 2-2 unbeaten and that’s why I have upgraded her prospects. She tends to go forward and can be hard to get past.
My sister Michelle rides AVA’S DELIGHT and is hopeful of a big run from a handy gate. The mare has been set for this race and her trainer Darren Weir does very well at this track.
GYPSY DIAMOND was a G2 winner at this course & distance last year and she is also a G1 runner-up in Sydney. She has the right credentials to be in the finish again from her inside barrier with the blinkers back on.
SELECTIONS: 4. SUAVITO, 7. JESSY BELLE, 6. AVA’S DELIGHT & 1. GYPSY DIAMOND
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