 Australia Expert - Patrick Payne |
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| Patrick Payne is currently a trainer in Australia and a well known former jockey in Hong Kong. He is a member of an extraordinary racing family comprising of eight successful jockeys. Having various stints between 1994 and 2004 in Hong Kong, he achieved his highest strike rate of 14.8%. As a champion jockey with a career that began in 1990, Payne rode more than 1000 winners, with 19 Group One race wins, including the Cox Plate. In 2007, he acquired his Australian trainer license, winning races such as Mornington Cup and Adelaide Cup. | |
Overseas Expert Column for Melbourne Cup Day (S1) (Patrick Payne)
S1-1 Schweppes #FlemingtonFling
MS MAZETTI is a highly talented filly and she looks well suited in this. Her recent Cranbourne trial indicated she is primed for a big first-up performance and the Robert Smerdon stable is in great form.
A progressive galloper trained on this track, ROUGH JUSTICE has good experience down this straight, which can be invaluable. He is fresh since his most recent run at Caulfield in September when he was most impressive winning in fast time.
Hong Kong viewers would have seen LAW go close at Moonee Valley on Cox Plate Day when he had the run of the race. While he has top weight to contend with here, I still expect him to feature prominently.
The David Hayes-trained FORGIVE AND FORGET is significantly down in class. His only win to date came on debut at this course and distance so I expect he will go well again.
SELECTIONS: 16. MS MAZETTI, 5. ROUGH JUSTICE, 1. LAW & 7. FORGIVE AND FORGET
S1-2 Lexus Hybrid Plate (Desirable Stakes)
Promising Sydney filly WINE TALES has the right profile to win this race. In her last start at Rosehill she was most impressive over 1,350m when she got a late split to burst through and win easily. I would rate her as the best bet of the day.
SEA SPRAY has to be considered following her recent win over 1,400m when she was well backed and finished off strongly, even if she was somewhat fortunate to win. She seems a decent place chance.
FITNA is a lightly raced filly making a big jump in class; however, she just may be up to it. She is very well bred (she was a very expensive yearling) and her last start win at a minor country meeting was terrific.
LONDON LOLLY tends to race forward and is rarely far away in the finish. She has only missed the first four once in her eight starts to date.
SELECTIONS: 2. WINE TALES, 4. SEA SPRAY, 13. FITNA & 1. LONDON LOLLY
S1-3 Melbourne Cup
LUCIA VALENTINA is usually ridden quietly but she was given far too much to do in the Caulfield Cup when she got within a length of the favourite for this race, Admire Rakti, at the line. Given the right run from an ideally low gate she can produce her blistering finish again and she has winning G1 form at this track for a jockey that knows how to win this race.
Fawkner is probably the best home-trained horse at the moment and he is significantly better than when he ran a sound sixth in this race a year ago despite getting a long way out of his ground. He has not finished out of the quinella in any of his three runs before this and was only caught on the line in the Cox Plate last start. His quality will take him far.
ADMIRE RAKTI arrived in Australia with top class form having run a close fourth in last year’s Japan Cup. He went one better when landing the Caulfield Cup just over a fortnight ago despite facing a wide trip and being pushed very deep off the home turn. A repeat of that performance would see him go very close in this race and he is a worthy favourite with Zac Purton on board again.
Mutual Regard has improved out of all recognition since being switched to the Irish stable of Johnny Murtagh this season and his win in the very competitive Ebor Handicap in England last start demonstrated that he can be a major force in this race. He will stay the trip better than most. He is also weighted ok and has the in-form Damien Oliver, three-times a winner of this race, on his back.
PROTECTIONIST is quite a lightly raced German stayer who won a G2 in France over 3,000m in August and fared well on his Australian debut when beaten one length into 4th in a G2 over 2,400m. He will have come on from that run, his appearance in the parade ring suggested he was not at his peak, and Ryan Moore, who excelled in winning the Cox Plate last week, has come in for the ride.
SELECTIONS: 22. LUCIA VALENTINA, 3. Fawkner, 1. ADMIRE RAKTI, 11. MUTUAL REGARD & 5. PROTECTIONIST
DOUBLE TRIO SELECTIONS (40 unit bets):
S1-3: Multiple – 22. LUCIA VALENTINA, 3. Fawkner, 1. ADMIRE RAKTI, 11. MUTUAL REGARD & 5. PROTECTIONIST
S1-4: Multiple – 13. SYSMO, 16. ATACAMA, 2. STIPULATE & 4. JACQUINOT BAY
S1-4 James Boag’s Premium Stakes (Melbourne Cup Day Plate)
SYSMO looks perfectly placed here. This is the third run back from a spell and looks ready to peak. His latest run in the Sale Cup was luckless and he should have won then. This track and distance suit and I feel he could be hard to beat.
ATACAMA has travelled over for the race from New Zealand. she has won her last two starts at 1,400m and 1,600m and she stays this trip fine. She has also drawn nicely for the in-form jockey James McDonald.
STIPULATE comes back in trip but his form is outstanding for a race of this nature, having contested G1 races in his last three starts. His most recent success was at this level and Ryan Moore takes the ride for David Hayes is another plus.
JACQUINOT BAY could sneak into fourth from his wide gate. He is generally pretty consistent without winning too often.
SELECTIONS: 13. SYSMO, 16. ATACAMA, 2. STIPULATE & 4. JACQUINOT BAY
TREBLE SELECTIONS (27 unit bets):
S1-4: Multiple – 13. SYSMO, 16. ATACAMA & 2. STIPULATE
S1-5: Multiple – 4. ICONIC, 2. NOT LISTENIN’TOME & 18. JAZZ SONG
S1-6: Multiple – 5. ROSE OF CHOICE, 6. LADY LAKSHMI & 3. SHE’S CLEAN
S1-5 MSS Security Sprint (Always Welcome Stakes)
ICONIC is an underrated type racing in great form. He finished ninth but was only beaten 1.5 lengths by Lankan Rupee in the G1 Manikato Stakes last start and was arguably unlucky not to have finished closer.
My top selection will meet NOT LISTENIN’TOME on better weight terms, so looks hard to beat here, but I still have plenty of time for the latter. Owned by trainer John Moore and likely to move to Hong Kong soon, Not listenin’tome ran second in a G1 over 1,200m at this course and distance last year and wasn’t far away in the Manikato Stakes most recently.
JAZZ SONG is a lightly raced mare that has moved through the classes at a rapid rate. Most of her runs are very good and she gives every indication that this preparation may be her best yet. She is fresh here, so a bold showing is anticipated.
TARGET IN SIGHT has won two of his last three sprint starts and Craig Williams, who was on board for the most recent win, is back in the saddle.
SELECTIONS: 4. ICONIC, 2. NOT LISTENIN’TOME, 18. JAZZ SONG & 11. TARGET IN SIGHT
S1-6 The Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes (Maybe Mahal Stakes)
ROSE OF CHOICE is an improving mare with excellent recent form. Overall she has seven wins and six placings from 16 career starts and she will be in the thick of it again.
LADY LAKSHMI has struck a new level in her recent performances, finishing in the money in her last eight starts. It helps that she has drawn well and her jockey knows her well too.
SHE’S CLEAN ran third at this course and distance at this meeting last year and her first run back after a spell in Sydney was solid and the booking of Zac Purton by top trainer Chris Waller catches the eye.
BELLE DE COEUR has gained a late start owing to a scratching but she could be a big improver on her first start for top trainer Chris Waller with Glen Boss taking the reins.
SELECTIONS: 5. ROSE OF CHOICE, 6. LADY LAKSHMI, 3. SHE’S CLEAN & 17. BELLE DE COEUR
QUARTET SELECTIONS (24 unit bets):
Multiple – 5. ROSE OF CHOICE, 6. LADY LAKSHMI, 3. SHE’S CLEAN & 17. BELLE DE COEUR
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