Japan Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Overseas Expert Column for Japan Cup (Naohiro Goda)

S1-1 Japan Cup

The field in this year’s Japan Cup includes three foreign raiders, all of whom are winners of major races in their home countries, and at least two of them seem to handle the firm and fast surface they will encounter at Tokyo Racecourse. Therefore, it is interesting to see how they perform on Sunday, in the 34th running of the Japan Cup, which has been won by Japanese-trained horses for eight consecutive years since 2006.

It is my belief however that it will be very tough for foreign horses to win the Japan Cup, because I think this year’s Japanese delegation is the strongest ever in the race’s history.

My first pick is GENTILDONNA, who will try to win the Japan Cup three times in a row.

GENTILDONNA is a horse who needs a race to gain 100% fitness, as her past performances after having break, have often been below par. For example, this year she failed to win after returning from two breaks – was sixth in the G2 Kyoto Kinen, her first start of 2014, and she then finished ninth in the G1 Takarazuka Kinen on 29 June – her first start since the G1 Dubai Sheema Classic on 29 March.

It was therefore a pleasant surprise for me to see she ran so well in the G1 Tenno Sho Autumn on 2 November, when she finished second, despite this being her first start since the G1 Takarazuka Kinen in June. I believe she will now be in top form this autumn, and the 2,400m at Tokyo Racecourse is the stage where she has won 3 races from 3 starts.

She will be ridden by Ryan Moore, who has won 15 G1 races in seven different countries this year, and is widely recognized as the best jockey in the world. I think GENTILDONNA with Ryan Moore, is a very strong favourite to win the Japan Cup.

One of the few horses, who has a chance of beating GENTILDONNA, is HARP STAR, winner of the G1 Japanese 1000 Guineas and runner-up in the G1 Japanese Oaks – run over the same course and distance as the Japan Cup. She was a   disappointing sixth in the G1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in France in October, although her late finishing kick she used down the homestretch was impressive. Her running style did not work out well at Longchamp, but she does go well at Tokyo racecourse. Being a three-year-old filly, she will carry 53kg (117lbs), 2kg lighter than GENTILDONNA, and 4kg lighter than older colts and horses. I think the weight could be a crucial issue in the latter stages of the race.

FENOMENO, who completed back-to-back wins in the G1 Tenno Sho Spring earlier this year, was well beaten in the G1 Tenno Sho Autumn last time out. I think however, we can forget about that poor performance, since he is by STAY GOLD and is not a consistent type of animal. He is very good on his day, and FENOMENO is my third choice.

EPIPHANEIA, the winner of the G1 Japanese St. Leger last year, is my fourth choice. I believe the change of rider may work for him after failing to win in three starts this year.

SPIELBERG, who has been highly regarded by connections since his two-year-old days, finally showed his true ability in the G1 Tenno Sho Autumn early this month, and is my fifth choice.  

SELECTIONS: 3. GENTILDONNA, 6. HARP STAR, 16. FENOMENO, 4. EPIPHANEIA & 15. SPIELBERG

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