Japan Expert - Naohiro Goda

Naohiro is a leading journalist and commentator in Japan with regular television shows on networks such as NHK Network and Green Channel. He is a regular contributor for newspapers, magazines and websites including Sports Nippon, Weekly Gallop, and netkeiba.com. He also operates a bloodstock business marketing firm. Naohiro is a frequent international racing traveler and a regular visitor to the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin.

Overseas Expert Column for Arima Kinen (S1-1) (Naohiro Goda)

S1-1 Arima Kinen

Arima Kinen, the year-end championship in Japan, had been widely recognized as a ‘tricky race’, as there had been numerous upsets. For example, it was won by MEJIRO DURREN, the 23 to 1 10th choice in the field in 1987, by DAIYUSAKU, the 137 to 1 14th choice in a 15-runner race in 1991, and by MEJIRO PALMER, the 48 to 1 15th choice from 16 runners in 1992. It was analyzed, that as the contest came at the end of year, fancied horses tended to be exhausted after having tough races in the autumn, and fresh horses could create an upset.

That tendency however has dramatically changed in recent years. The favourite has won six out of last ten Arima Kinens, and finished runner-up three times. The trainers have learnt they need to skip at least one of the important races in autumn if they want to win Arima Kinen, and almost all the favourite’s in the last 10 years had run only once or twice in autumn prior to running in the Arima Kinen. I believe that proves freshness is the key factor in selecting the winner.

My first choice is JUST A WAY, for whom the Arima Kinen will be his swan song. He is the world’s highest rated horse, with an international rating of 130, which was given him after he won the G1 Dubai Duty Free in March. He proved he stayed 2,400m when finishing second to EPIPHANEIA in Japan Cup last time out, and he has also only run twice this autumn. 

My second choice is VERXINA, who should be fresh on Sunday, as she has only run once this autumn. She finished third in the G1 Takarazuka Kinen in June, and proved she is competitive against colts and horses. She was well beaten in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup last time out, but she was in need of the race that day, as it was her first start since the Takarazuka Kinen. She has trained beautifully since that last race, and it looks like she will be able to dominate the race from the front, as there are no other early speed horses in the field. 

GOLD SHIP, winner of five G1 stakes including the Arima Kinen in 2012, is very good on his day and I cannot neglect him, picking him as my third choice. On the other hand, he is inconsistent and is not a reliable horse. He could easily capture his second Arima Kinen, or he may once again disappoint, as he did in the G1 Tenno Sho Spring earlier in the year. 

There are two interesting three-year-olds in the field, and I like TO THE WORLD – yet to win a G1 – better than ONE AND ONLY, this year’s Japanese Derby winner. TO THE WORLD has run well twice at Nakayama, winning the G2 Hochi Hai Yayoi Sho, beating ONE AND ONLY in March, and then finishing second in the G1 Satsuki Sho. TO THE WORLD will be ridden by leading UK rider William Buick for the first time, and I believe it will help TO THE WORLD produce his best form on Sunday. TO THE WORLD is my fourth choice. 

LAST IMPACT is not a fresh horse, as he has run four times since August. His performance in the G2 Kinko Sho on 6 December however, was so impressive that I have included him as my fifth choice.

GENTILDONNA does not like a clock-wise track, and I do not think she runs her best races at Nakayama.

EPIPHANEIA, without the service by Christophe Soumillon, is also not an attractive proposition.

SELECTIONS: 15. JUST A WAY, 2. VERXINA, 14. GOLD SHIP, 6. TO THE WORLD & 7. LAST IMPACT

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